San Jose Earthquakes-Portland Timbers Preview (6/17)

To kick off another three-match week, the Timbers are traveling to San Jose to face a surging Earthquakes side (7:38 PM, Apple TV). After some tough years, San Jose have once again risen back to the mountaintop of MLS.

Now, that might sound like hyperbole, because San Jose has still been trophyless since 2012. However, despite their trophy drought, they are still one of the founding members of MLS. With league legends such as Chris Wondolowski and Shea Salinas playing the majority of their careers in San Jose, it is puzzling as to why they are never truly a contending team. Coaching and player recruitment can mostly be blamed for that. But in 2023, the Quakes are back. Buoyed by MVP candidate winger Cristian Espinoza, their attack is fearsome. Carlos Gruezo was the most underrated signing of the past winter window, as he gives San Jose a true 6 to anchor the midfield. Gremio product Rodrigues and offseason acquisition Jonathan Mensah anchor the backline. And new coach Luchi Gonzalez has worked wonders in his first season, almost completely erasing the disaster of Matias Almeyda’s tenure in charge of the club. Of course, there is one crucial name I have left out. Jeremy Ebobisse came into MLS as a Timber via the SuperDraft. Despite some impressive production, Ebobisse was traded to San Jose in 2021 for $1.16M GAM. Ebobisse got what he wanted (more minutes at striker) and went on to score 17 goals in 34 games last season, his first full campaign in San Jose. So far, he has 7 goals in 17 games in 2023. I’m not going to compare his numbers to the total goals scored by Timbers strikers since he was traded because I simply don’t want to. It should be understood that trading him was a massive mistake and we’re still paying the price.

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I mentioned that 2023 has been a renaissance at PayPal Park (great name, great alliteration, solid venue as well to boot). A 7-5-5 record (26 points) is good enough for 5th place in the Western Conference. Espinoza’s heroics have been key. He leads the team in both goals and assists (8g/3a) and is garnering genuine MVP hype. However, oddly, the Quakes rank middle of the pack in several of the key attacking categories. Most telling is their 3.1 shots on target/90, which is 2nd-lowest in the league. They are also in the lower half of the league in big chances created. But their defense has really stepped up. 19.9 clearances per game is 5th in the league. They also rank towards the bottom of the league in most of the fouling categories (less fouls and yellow cards are good). Currently in the middle of a four-game unbeaten run, this team is continuing to build momentum. Especially following their last result, a 2-1 win over a resurgent Philadelphia Union side. If the Timbers make the playoffs, they might be facing San Jose in the postseason for the first time. In all their past meetings, Portland is 16-9-6 against the Quakes. Away from home, they are 4-5-6 against San Jose. 

The Timbers are getting this fixture at the best possible time. Gruezo, Cade Cowell, Carlos Akapo, Jamiro Monteiro, and Miguel Trauco are on international duty. Center back Nathan is the only injured player on the team, and he will miss the entire season after tearing his ACL in the preseason. Every player with their national teams is a key part of the squad. How will Gonzalez work around these absences?

San Jose has been very loyal to the 4-3-3, but two major midfield absences might force a change to a back five. Tanner Beason had a good showing against Philadelphia, and he will return to the starting XI to get the team’s best XI on the field. That’s the mindset I chose to implement when I was picking this lineup. Both Paul Marie and Tommy Thompson will fill in at the fullback spots, with Thompson able to join in the midfield if needed. 2 out of their 3 DPs are midfielders, and both of them are absent (Gruezo, Monteiro). A two man midfield of Judson and the underrated Jackson Yueill looks to be Gonzalez’s best option. The front three are unchanged from the Philly match, and they are very dangerous in their own right. Cade Cowell has grown a moustache and improved his technique, Ebobisse is Ebobisse, and I’ve already explained Espinoza’s importance to this team. This is still a good XI, even with the depleted midfield. 

One result in the recent stretch of matches struck a chord with Giovanni Savarese. The 4-1 loss in Kansas City was a failure in all aspects of the game. The defensive turnaround in the past two fixtures (Seattle away, Dallas home) has been extraordinary, and it has buoyed the team while the attack continues to find its groove. This team hasn’t just collected back-to-back shutouts, they have only allowed 10 shots over the past two games. Evander continues to lead the attack, but lack of production from the wings continues to limit the ceiling of the unit. Savarese’s attitude and mantra of “continuing to work” is a good sign that everything the team does gets looked at in the film room. And the 5-5-7 record (20 points) Portland currently has is not good enough by this team’s own standards, much less the fans. The Timbers still haven’t won back to back league games in 2023. This is a huge opportunity for the team on Saturday night, and I’m putting a must-win tag on it.

In terms of personnel, international call-ups work in Portland’s favor this weekend. The continued absence of Aljaz Ivacic and the new absence of Juan David Mosquera doesn’t look good on paper, but the positions both players play in have quality depth, which is fortunate for a still paper-thin squad. Portland can still field a strong lineup on Saturday. 

This is very similar to the lineup that took the field in Seattle on June 3rd, with only two changes. David Bingham used to be a San Jose Earthquake. He was always a player who frustrated me whenever he was in the Quakes’ net, and now he gets to return to PayPal Park. He will have family and friends in attendance, and no one on the roster might be more motivated on this particular road trip. “I’m extremely excited to go play there. I’ve played a lot of good games in that stadium,” he said in Thursday’s press conference. The other change isn’t so much a change, but a rectification of a previous wrong from that Seattle game. Starting Jaroslaw Niezgoda might have been appealing to Savarese in training, but Franck Boli started against Dallas and scored again. With the side being built around Evander, Boli’s chemistry with the Brazilian is superior. He simply must start every match for the rest of the season. Claudio Bravo returns to the XI after serving a yellow card suspension against Dallas. Mosquera’s absence allows Eric Miller to make his third consecutive start. At the wings, both Asprilla and Moreno must start. Both have had moments of brilliance this year, but inconsistency continues to plague them. Talent-wise, they are still the best options Portland has on the wing at this juncture in the season. The midfield pivot of Cristhian Paredes and Diego Chara has been the most exceptional part of the team this year. The spine of the team has been fantastic in recent weeks, and all of the players involved will be starting on Saturday night. Another strong first XI for Portland.

Both halves of the Dallas game showed two different but effective Timbers teams. The first half was characterized by a relentless high press that created chances on its own. In the second half, the Timbers sat back a little more and tried to hit Dallas on the counter. A replication of that game plan could do wonders against San Jose. The Quakes will have a massively depleted midfield, and Portland’s strong presence in that area of the pitch will create turnovers on their own. The most important player in that aspect is Paredes. With his ability to nullify attacks with both tackles and interceptions, he will need to continue to turn those turnovers into quick attacking movements. That’s only if the ball gets past the high press. Moreno and Evander are fantastic pressers. But the Timbers are still weak on the counter. And that weakness doesn’t show itself in a lack of space or unwillingness to run. It boils down to poor decision making. The Timbers’ M.O. on counters is to try to pass the ball into the back of the net. That often means passing up some decent but not surefire shooting opportunities. Evander and Boli are willing shooters. Dairon Asprilla too. But Moreno in particular is more willing to pass than have a go of his own. Is it a confidence issue? Is it a fitness issue? I don’t have a confirmed answer on that, but I’m leaning towards door number one. One shot from Moreno still sits in my mind from last weekend. The ball fell to him in the box, and any attacker should roof the shot immediately on their first touch. Moreno did take it on his first touch, but the shot was low and didn’t have a ton of power on it. The shot did force a great save from Dallas keeper Marten Paes, but that should’ve been 2-0. Paes was also incredible on Sunday night on the whole, and did keep the scoreline a lot more respectable for the visitors. Quakes keeper Daniel had an outstanding match in Seattle on May 31, and has kept clean sheets in 2 of his last 3 matches. Shots on goal is the one stat the Timbers need to dominate. The back four of Bravo, McGraw, Zuparic, and Miller was outstanding against Seattle, and Bravo in particular was a force to be reckoned with. He will have a tough matchup with Espinoza, and he needs to do his best to keep the MVP candidate in front of him. Portland has not been good on the road this season. They have a 1-3-5 record away from home in MLS play. A road win wouldn’t just be good in the standings, but in the locker room as well.

Rotation is another question with two more matches to follow in the next seven days, but both of those upcoming matches are at home. I expect the lineup against Chicago on Wednesday to feature a little bit of rotation, but this is a match that needs the team’s first XI. If the same team that dominated Dallas comes out on the pitch Saturday night, this should be a Timbers victory. But inconsistency is the main narrative surrounding this squad in 2023. Getting a second consecutive win moves the needle of this team. As of right now, this team will hover around the playoff line for the remainder of the season. With a win here, I think they’re firmly a playoff team. Especially with a busy summer transfer window still to come. 

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