Seattle Sounders midseason autopsy
What's going wrong with the Sounders this year?
17 matches into the 2024 season, the Seattle Sounders sit at 4-7-6 with 18 points, a -1 goal difference, and 10th place in the Western Conference. Both Portland (at 9th) and Vancouver (at 5th) sit ahead of Seattle in the table.
What’s going wrong? How can the ship be righted?
How this start stacks up
This is the third-worst start in the history of the modern iteration of the Sounders. The worst was in 2018, when the side began the year 4-9-4 (16 points), but Seattle turned around in the second half of the year with a 14-2-1 run to finish the year 18-11-5 (59 points).
The second worst start in modern team history was 2016, when Seattle went 5-10-2 in their first 17 (17 points). Of course, Seattle ended the regular season 9-4-4 that year, bumping the team up to 50 points and a playoff spot, which they turned into an MLS Cup title – so there is still hope for 2024! – but the team needs to begin its turnaround this Saturday and not much later.
At this point in the 2023 campaign, Seattle had 27 points and an 8-6-3 record. Seattle is 12th in the conference in goals scored (20) and tied for 5th best in goals against (21). Although the ’23 team had scored a similar amount of goals (21), they had given up far less (12), which gets us into:
Letting off the gas
One of the team’s primary issues this year has been that when they go ahead, they tend to start coasting, which allows their opponent to strike – many times, turning wins into ties or losses. This has been a particularly strong bugbear in the past nine matches, where Seattle has scored first in six of them – but has only gone 2-2-2 in those matches! If those draws and been wins and the wins draws, the Sounders would have 24 points, a 6-5-6 record, and be 6th in the table. Not terrific, but more than OK and certainly less frustrating than what has actually happened.
The last two home matches have been this story – the Sounders go up, they stop playing as hard, their opponent gets a second wind – and scores in the final minutes to tie the game. One of these matches was against a Cascadia rival (Vancouver), the other against the best team in the conference (RSL).
The losses, of course, have been worse, often coming against mediocre to bad squads. In the game that inaugurated this trend (April 27 at DC United), it wasn’t a lack of effort that started the opponent’s comeback but a soft red (which the Sounders successfully appealed after the match) against Stef, and the flip happened before the half was even up. DC United currently sits at 10th in the Eastern Conference with 19 points – not exactly world-beaters.
The worst one, however, was the most recent match against the bottom-feeding Sporting Kansas City. Jordan Morris opened the scoring in the 12th, but that was the only shot on target of the entire match, while SKC got 3 shots on target in the remaining 78 minutes, two of which found their way past Frei.
Even outside of those games, some of the team’s victories have shown this trend. The win against Portland comes to mind – although the Timbers began the scoring, Seattle whipped back with two goals – and then immediately allowed Portland to dominate possession, although the back line held strong enough to prevent too many good shots.
Similar was the victory against Philly. The Sounders here went up 3-0 in the first half but the Union responded with two goals at the beginning of the second. To the Sounders’ credit, they re-awoke after this and kept their opponents at bay, sealing the win.
In short, the Sounders need to start putting teams away when they’re ahead.
The final third – letting perfect be the enemy of good
Getting ahead in the first place has been a challenge, too. All too often, Sounders players have the ball up front, on the cusp of a chance, but have done one of two things: buckle under pressure and send the ball back to the midfield or hesitate on a shot. The results are predictable – enemy defenders break up the late shot attempts while Sounders attacks wither when they go negative.
Despite being sixth in the Western Conference in average possession with 49.7% (behind Houston, LA Galaxy, RSL, SKC, and Austin), the Sounders are second-to-last in shots on target per match with 3.8 (ahead of only Austin) and third-to-last in goals per match with 1.2 (ahead of Dallas and Houston). These stats show the results of this pattern.
It seems the Sounders are uncreative up top. They’re looking for the perfect breakaway, the perfect shot, the perfect cross, and in the process, they become predictable to their opponents, who run a simple playbook on defense and get into a groove.
The two faces of Jordan Morris
It seems to be a coin toss as to which Jordan Morris the Sounders get in any given match. Heads, we get 2016 Championship Jordan Morris; tails, … not that.
“Heads” Jordan Morris has showed up a lot recently, which is a good sign – he scored on May 18th against Vancouver, May 25th at St. Louis, and June 8th at Kansas City. This is the Jordan Morris that, when he does shoot, is pretty accurate.
He’s currently in a 17-way tie for 42nd in MLS in goals scored with 4 (he was in a 3-way tie for 12th in ‘2023 – he had 13). His three goals in the last four matches have done most of the heavy lifting there, and it’s a good sign that he might be warming up.
And even in the matches where he’s not on his A game, he’s still winning a lot of aerials.
And yet, “tails” Jordan Morris – Morris Jordan, if you will – is still here. He showed up a lot in the beginning of the season, and he still appears at least a couple times a game, when Jordan hesitates on a shot (he’s a big culprit in that trend). This is the Jordan Morris that keeps hesitating in the box.
Overall, Morris has created 1.3 chances per 90 (Albert, Seattle’s best chance-creator, is sitting at 2.1/90).
The case of Raúl Ruidiáz
On the whole, Raúl has looked better than his injury-plagued 2023 season – but he still isn’t in CONCACAF or 2019 form. His is another “coin flip” story – although it’s more a coin flip of accuracy than hesitation.
His striker instincts are still impeccable. He knows where to be and what angles to have. He takes chances when he has them. He takes 4.7 shots per 90 – seventh in MLS.
In some games, his accuracy is like it was when the Sounders were world-beaters. He has 7 goals, four of which have come in a pair of two-goal performances. But only three of his shots have come in open play.
But in his other games, his shots just … miss. They go high, or wide. Part of this is that he doesn’t get the quality of crosses he used to, due to Seattle’s worse performance in the final third. But part of it is simply the passing of time. He’s 33 years old now. He’ll turn 34 in July. He’s not a great striker anymore, but a very good one – and championship teams have the former.
Injuries and Pedro
It seems the Sounders can’t avoid the injury bug the last few years. JP was out for much of ’22, Raúl and Cristian for much of ’23, and, this year, it’s Pedro de la Vega, which, in light of what Seattle’s problems are this year – perhaps one of the worst guys to lose.
Pepo, of course, was the highlight of the Sounders off-season, and watching him play, it’s easy to see why. He’s a creative, attacking player who can play anywhere in the top third of the field. He’s the type of player that improves everyone around him in a dramatic way. Raúl, JP, Jordan, they all look like their best selves when Pedro is in their midst.
And he got hurt in the home opener. He’s played once since then – he got minutes on May 18 against Vancouver – but he didn’t seem quite the same and hasn’t showed up since, apparently still nursing his injury.
It’s not just Pedro. Nathan has been out for most of the year, Jon Bell is currently out, Braudilio isn’t expected to return until late June at the earliest, Leo Chú has been injured twice and is currently out, Yeimar had to miss a few games… the team’s been a little banged up.
Is Stef losing a step?
In 2023, Stef had a save percentage of 72.2%, compared to 71.4% in 2023 (statistically, those two might as well be identical), so it might be odd to ask this question. However, he had 16 clean sheets in 2023 compared to 3 (on pace for 6) this year. He has conceded 14 goals (on pace for 28) as opposed to 32 last year, which is an improvement. He has 35 saves this season (on pace for 70), compared to 83 last year.
There is also the eye test – he’s 38 this year, and it is starting to show. He’s just that little bit slower to react. However, I think he is still a good player, still serviceable for the Sounders, and the problems don’t start with him – he just doesn’t have as much of the extraordinary ability to plug holes in an emergency as he used to.
Is the back line buckling?
Not really. There have been times when it looks like it’s buckling, sure, but it’s also had to deal with twenty- or thirty-minute-long onslaughts game after game whenever the Sounders offense steps off the gas after getting ahead.
That’s not a tenable situation, and the results are predictable. Eventually, the back line is stretched to its absolute limit as cross after cross, corner after corner, shot after shot rain in. And something goes through.
But I’d say, overall, the back line has been good.
Bright spots
There are other bright spots. JP has been a Michelin-star midfield chef as usual. Reed, Ragen, and Cody have been playing well. Cristian has been much improved during his games as a defensive midfielder. Obed has gotten some minutes at right winger, where he has looked extremely promising. Nouhou nearly had a goal against RSL on May 29th (okay, not his usual role, but perhaps a Nouhou goal could snap the squad out of its funk).
Schmetzer
To Schmetzer’s credit, he has ditched his usual conservatism to some degree in the face of the team’s struggles. As the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it – but Schmetz can tell that the team needs fixing, and he’s been trying plenty of stuff to try and fix it.
While I would like to see some more of the young fast guys up front, this is a little difficult with Leo Chu out. When he comes back, I hope he plays some more minutes, because he’s the type of player that can get the breakaways the Sounders need.
Where I can’t speak to Schmetzer’s value has been off-the-pitch. I don’t know what the Sounders need in the clubhouse or in training, and I don’t know if the Schmetz is doing his job there. While the on-field product doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that the behind-the-scenes is going well, Schmetzer is a proven MLS coach with a good track record, so I give him the benefit of the doubt.
In short, while the “SchmetzOut” people are, I think, badly wrong right now, my faith in Schmetzer isn’t 100%. It’s still pretty high, but if the results don’t improve the rest of the way, I will have to reassess.
Moving forward
The Sounders’ next game is on Saturday, June 15 against Minnesota United FC. Minnesota is third in the Western Conference right now.
Saturday’s match is also the team’s 50th anniversary game. This is the perfect time to right the ship.
Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
