Seattle Sounders-Portland Timbers Preview (6/3)

Author’s Note: Thank you to everyone who has subscribed to Cascadia FC over the course of the season. Your support warms my heart, from every pageview to every interaction. Before I get into this week’s match, I would like to inform all of you that there will be some premium content arriving very soon on this website. It will be exclusive to people who have a paid subscription, and I personally wouldn’t want to miss out on some deeper tactical dives and more in-depth player interviews coming soon. Thank you for all your support and let’s gut this stupid fish tomorrow.

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Y’all know what week it is. 

Since the final whistle blew on the night of April 15, and a team wearing Bruce Lee jerseys walked off the field in shame after completely losing the fight, the Seattle Sounders have been in a weird spot. Yes, they’re still sitting on top of the Western Conference. But at the same time, they haven’t been good. Many teams would celebrate 10 points in their last 8 MLS matches, but to the fans around Puget Sound there’s a strong smell of something fishy. Of course, when you proclaim to be “The Greatest Team You’ve Ever Seen” there surely must be some recent evidence to back that up? Surely this team can rise to the occasion amidst any adversity? Well, it seems like one piece of adversity is too much for this team to overcome. Ironically, Cristian Roldan’s absence from the Sounders has answered the question of why he went to the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar with the US Men’s National Team. His most impressive trait is his leadership rather than anything he can do with the ball at his feet. And that’s what the Sounders have been severely lacking. In this 8-match stretch, the Sounders only picked up 3 wins. All three of those wins had a 1-0 scoreline. Houston away was one of those wins, when the Dynamo were playing down a man for the majority of the game. Seattle couldn’t find a goal, so naturally the Dynamo had to get another man sent off before Seattle finally found their winner up two men. Raul Ruidiaz has also been out for this stretch, and Heber has not been the goal-scorer they signed him to be. Neither has Jordan Morris, who finally scored again last Saturday against the Red Bulls. That was Morris’ first goal since April 1st. Nouhou also spent a long stretch away from the team while he was dealing with malaria. To break the sarcasm for a second, malaria is very serious and I’m very happy to see Nouhou’s recovery. Ok, that’s all the positivity I can muster in my body for this franchise. They are still on #FRAUDWATCH even though the MLS Power Rankings disagree. They see the Sounders as a beacon of success despite their refusal to behave like it. Speaking of behaving like a good team, Alex Roldan has become the focus of frustration among Sounders fans. He looks like a Wish version of his brother and enforces that comparison by playing like it too. There are growing calls for a youth movement at Lumen Field, and the new Golden Boy seems to be left back Cody Baker. He has been a bright spot amidst their struggles and has shown some maturity playing such a tough position at a young age. Joao Paolo and Nico Lodeiro continue to be incredibly annoying (good players/Olympic level divers) and Yeimar continues to be one of the best center backs in the league. Stefan Frei continues to go between average and pumpkin, with a horrific (laugh-out-loud funny) own goal against Vancouver contrasted with a match-winning save last Saturday on a Red Bulls breakaway. Yes, there’s still quality on this Sounders team. But it doesn’t always show up.

Speaking of not showing up, the Sounders (8-2-6, 26 points) played a midweek game last Wednesday. They hosted the San Jose Earthquakes and promptly lost their third home game out of their last four. To be fair to the Sounders, the stats said they should have won by at least two goals. But in order to actually win games, those “expected goals” have to actually end up in the back of the net. Raul Ruidiaz came on as a substitute and contributed a full expected goal, but the final score of 1-0 means that his entire expected goal was entirely hypothetical. That is the essence of the Sounders of the past two years. Yes, they dominate the ball for entire matches. They create chances out of mid-air. The system that Brian Schmetzer has built keeps working. But it doesn’t account for those chances being missed. Let’s recall a match in late 2021, where the Sounders dominated most of the game except for two opportunistic counters that the visitors slotted home for a massive 2-0 victory. Those opponents were the Timbers, and that victory helped propel them on a late-season surge to MLS Cup. That night, the crossbar was the Timbers’ best friend. Last Wednesday against the Quakes, the crossbar wasn’t even called into action. The Sounders simply refused to let their old best friend get involved. And that’s the best way I can illustrate their regression.

During that game against San Jose, only 2 locked-in first XI players got rest. Joao Paolo’s was voluntary, as he decided he simply didn’t need to play against San Jose and got sent off in the Red Bulls match last Saturday. Yeimar got rotated, and Xavier Arreaga’s return to the starting XI didn’t cause them to miss a beat defensively. Alex Roldan decided he didn’t want to get embarrassed by Dairon Asprilla again, so he picked up a yellow card suspension for Saturday. Nouhou and Albert Rusnak didn’t play the full 90. Leo Chu, Lodeiro, and Jackson Ragen did play the entire match. Ruidiaz made his return from injury and only played a half hour. Rotation was a question for Schmetzer, and he decided to barely rotate at all. But the biggest question mark for Saturday is Cristian Roldan’s return from a concussion. Schmetzer has said he thinks Roldan might be able to play against Portland. Jordan Morris and Obed Vargas are definitely going to be out on Saturday. Morris is injured and Vargas is with the US U20s at the U20 World Cup (he’s barely playing). Cody Baker also missed the San Jose game with a concussion, and his status is unclear. With all of this information, here’s my Sounders XI:

Alex Roldan’s replacement will be either Kelyn Rowe or Reed Baker-Whiting. Given how important this game is for Seattle, Rowe will probably get the nod. I do think Roldan starts. Schmetzer said that he would be available on Saturday and this team needs their emotional leader. A healthy Ruidiaz is also a must-start. The legs of Lodeiro and Chu need to be monitored, but Heber and Fredy Montero will be the first choices off the bench. Rusnak and Paolo will be the double pivot, with Josh Atencio the sub option for them. Sota Kitahara could see time but it’s unlikely. This is as close to a first XI that Seattle can muster. 

Moving on to the heroes of our story, the Timbers (4-4-7, 16 points) have been anything but heroic in recent weeks. Following a stellar victory over Vancouver, they lost two winnable games in a row in very different fashion. The chances were sorta there against Minnesota, but they weren’t finished, and it allowed the Loons to steal three points in stoppage time after the Timbers became complacent. The entirety of the SKC game was complacency, and the 4-1 scoreline illustrates that better than anything else I could say. So which Timbers team will we be getting on Saturday? Is it going to be the self-assured team that dispatched St. Louis on the road? That victory in Missouri is the Timbers’ only road win in 2023. Or will we see a team that will get the doors blown off them like we saw last week and in Atlanta? Could we possibly see the vengeful version of the Timbers that we saw on April 15th, where their only goal was to humiliate their biggest rivals? “We know how big it is. We want to do our best to bring a victory to Portland,” Evander said in Thursday’s press conference. And I have every reason to believe him. However, the Timbers have another player who is rejoining the injury list. Yimmi Chara injured his left hamstring in Kansas City, and he will probably be out for a couple weeks. Oh well. Some things never change.

Speaking of never changing, the XI for Portland is very settled. Dairon Asprilla will make his third start in a row. Santiago Moreno is fully healthy and ready to start on the right. Dario Zuparic returns to the XI after serving his yellow card suspension. Franck Boli has scored in 2 of the last 3 games, and is putting himself in positions to score way more. The Paredes-Chara pivot is settled. In terms of subs, they will come based on game state. Eric Miller didn’t see the field in Kansas City when the Timbers were chasing the game, but he is the best defensive option on the bench in case the Timbers take an early lead and need to protect it. Noel Caliskan is still awaiting his MLS debut, and it could happen at Lumen. Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Nathan Fogaca are options off the bench at the striker position. The wings is where things get interesting. Yimmi’s injury means Marvin is now the backup on the depth chart. But Justin Rasmussen could get time playing farther up the pitch in this match. He has been exposed in several moments this year at left back, but he does have the skillset to be a winger in Portland’s system. It’s not a completely crazy thought. Another player who will probably see the field is Sebastian Blanco. Giovanni Savarese said that he expects Blanco to be ready on Saturday. We still haven’t seen the Evander-Blanco pairing produce, but there’s only been a small amount of time they’ve been on the pitch together. No one on this roster hates Lumen Field more than Blanco, and even if he doesn’t play his presence on the bench will be crucial. 

This match will focus on set pieces and counterattacks. Seattle wins a lot of corners and each one of those opportunities must be dealt with. Counter-wise, the Timbers scored 2 of their 3 goals last year at Lumen in those situations. They also scored 3 of their 4 on April 15th in those situations. A Timbers victory is going to be decided on any counterattacking opportunity they can find. Seattle loves to dominate possession and switch the field constantly. This is a formula that should play right into the Timbers’ hands, but the Timbers haven’t been springing on turnovers forced from those situations in recent weeks. I know they will be awakened by the rivalry, so I’m not too concerned about it this week. Another key facet of this match will be fitness and effort on 50-50 balls. The Sounders seemingly win every 50-50 in their hemisphere and quickly turn it into offense. The Timbers have been struggling to complete passes. One of those things will have to change in order for Portland to win. I would focus more on beating Seattle on those 50-50s and firmly implanting themselves in this game rather than being a passenger and waiting for counter opportunities. The Timbers can control games. Savarese said in Thursday’s presser the team needs to “keep the ball better.” Just connect passes in the middle third and let that open up opportunities in the attacking third. Evander is going to create by any means necessary and he’s already on the same page as Boli, Juan, and Santi. Even though Nouhou is a fantastic defender, that right side of the field is Portland’s most dangerous side of the pitch. Asprilla is more of a finisher than a creator, and letting the creators create on the right should open him up on the left. Of course, the fullbacks need to be on the same page because Ruidiaz can still latch onto any ball played in from the wing. Limiting the final balls should be their primary objective rather than getting too involved in the attack. I’m not saying that both Bravo and Mosquera should focus only on defending, but Bravo especially cannot be caught out of position. Jordan Morris’ absence definitely works in Bravo’s favor. Aljaz Ivacic has allowed 2 goals in 3 games against Seattle since the 6-2 match in August 2021. He has been fantastic in those three games, including a clean sheet in the Timbers’ last trip to Lumen. Ivacic will be called upon a lot on Saturday, and I have faith that he will rise to the occasion again. Portland won’t have to play a perfect game, but they have to match the intensity and effort shown by Seattle in order to get three points.

Since there is more at play on Saturday than just bragging rights, let’s take a minute to look at the Cascadia Cup standings.

With wins over Vancouver and Seattle the Timbers currently sit atop the standings. Seattle has only played two Cascadia matches so far and lost both. This match will count as Seattle’s “game in hand,” so it’s very crucial for them to get a win to keep them in the running. Many people might think that the Sounders believe Cascadia is below them, but that is not the case for Brian Schmetzer. As long as the Sounders think they are still in the running, they will be dangerous. For the rest of the season, there will only be one Cascadia match per month. Portland’s next is August 26 in Seattle, while the next one to be played is July 8th’s match between Vancouver and Seattle at BC Place. Nothing would delight Portland fans more than holding on to the trophy for another year. Portland has never won the trophy in two consecutive seasons since they joined MLS. Savarese definitely has motivation to keep it in the Rose City, and the rest of the team shares that drive.

The Sounders are desperate. This run of poor form is not acceptable by their lofty standards and the standards of their fans. “They are going to be the most prepared they have ever been,” Savarese said in his Thursday press conference. Seattle will be motivated not just by their poor form, but the four straight defeats they have suffered at the hands of, in their own words, their “little brother.” It must be noted that the Timbers have a 18-7-14 record against Seattle in MLS play, with Savarese’s personal record against Seattle standing at a massive 9-1-5. That is the most wins against the Sounders by a single coach since Savarese became the Timbers’ manager. As a result, it’s pretty obvious who the actual little brother is.  Portland has also been poor since their triumphant victory on April 15th, but Savarese can always be counted on to bring his A-game to a rivalry match. Since both Portland and Seattle entered MLS, no team had won four straight over the other one. Giovanni Savarese has put his name in the history books. A fifth straight victory would be an incredible achievement. And Schmetzer will be doing all he can to make the result on the field resemble the rivalry that engulfs both fanbases off it.

This match is scheduled to kick off at 1:30 PM Pacific Time. However, due to FOX deciding to broadcast this game, the actual kickoff will be closer to 1:55 PM. It is unknown who is on the call for FOX, but I am tempted to believe it will be John Strong. This hasn’t been confirmed, but a man can dream. Since every MLS game is on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV, the other option to watch is, obviously, Apple. Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu have been confirmed as the announcers for Apple. Costigan has done play-by-play for both the Timbers and the Sounders, but he is definitely a little more biased to the team in fake green. No other game will be kicking off in the 1:30 window, so there will be a captive audience of MLS fans tuning in to watch the best rivalry in American soccer. For those with a personal stake in this match, anything but a comprehensive victory is unacceptable. And for those traveling to the match, such as myself, nothing is sweeter than the ecstasy of victory in your rival’s backyard. 

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