Seattle Sounders-Portland Timbers Preview (9/2)

Y’all know what week it is.

The fans are fed up. The team has been slumping. The results are unacceptable. This is a description of several teams in Major League Soccer, but there’s only one team where all of these complaints are valid while sitting safely in the playoff positions. The Seattle Sounders continue to innovate. They comfortably sit in 3rd place in the Western Conference; 7 points clear of the playoff line. So what is the genesis of this incredible frustration from the team that can never stop inventing? Let’s take a look at some recent results to get a better understanding of this frustration.

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These are the last 18 matches the Seattle Sounders have played in all competitions. Their record is 5-5-8. This includes the two losses in Leagues Cup, where they continued to innovate by becoming the first Leagues Cup team to blow a 2 goal lead in their match against Monterrey. The fans continue to show up to Lumen Field, but they’re not getting their money’s worth. 2-3-4 is an ugly home record, and it is nowhere near acceptable for the fans who wear fake green and constantly scream for their team to fight and win. The “Fight and Win” has been absent. Sure, there are a few green dots in those images shown above. But only winning two home games in the span of four months is very bad. You’re supposed to have an advantage in those games. So who can be blamed for this horrific stretch in 2023?

Brian Schmetzer, besides continuing to audition for Who Framed Roger Rabbit, has been the target of ire from many fans in the fishing village. His lineup choices certainly have been interesting. The backline is actually the least controversial part of the team. Yeimar and permanent gopher Jackson Ragen have formed a good center back partnership, and Stefan Frei is tied with Steve Clark (somehow) for the league lead in clean sheets. Nouhou has been showing some cracks but is still an excellent defender on the left side. Alex Roldan continues to be a solid attacking option from the right back spot. Now we get to the problem areas, and I’m going to start with the midfield. Schmetzer is fiercely loyal to the 4-2-3-1, and he’s also fiercely loyal to two different midfield setups. Joao Paolo is one of the two midfielders, with either Albert Rusnak or Obed Vargas partnering him. One’s a DP, and the other is supposed to be one of the best youth prospects in the country. But is there another young midfielder who’s better than both of them? Josh Atencio has been frozen out of Schmetzer’s plans for most of the season. This has led to many Sounders fans clamoring for Atencio to play more. Schmetzer granted them their wish on Wednesday night, when Atencio played the full 90 and led the Sounders to their first road win since a July 7th victory in Vancouver. That’s one part of the issue, but it’s a lesser one. TIME TO LOOK AT THE SEATTLE SOUNDERS xG! They are 4th in the league with 40.3 combined xG so far, but have only scored 32 goals in league play. That’s 16th in the league! They are obviously getting themselves in the right positions, but are failing to convert. It’s very funny to watch. Raul Ruidiaz and new signing Heber have been incredibly wasteful. Maybe the solution is playing top scorer Jordan Morris up top, but he’s only scored 2 league goals since April 1st. Nico Lodeiro is still the engine of the team, but they’re missing Cristian Roldan. He’s still dealing with concussion symptoms, and he’s still doubtful ahead of Saturday’s match. This has led to Rusnak or Morris filling in on the right wing and the attack is still suffering. Adding to the frustration was a completely silent summer transfer window where they brought in a grand total of ZERO players. For reference, even though they’re in two different leagues, West Bromwich Albion is scraping pennies together to build a squad. THEY HAVE STILL SIGNED TWO MORE PLAYERS IN THIS SUMMER WINDOW THAN THE SEATTLE SOUNDERS. Fans are absolutely fed up because this run of poor form is unacceptable to them. To those like myself that love to loathe this team, it’s absolutely brilliant. Excellent job, Brian. Continue being as stubborn as you want.

I already mentioned that Cristian Roldan is likely to miss this match. They did rotate heavily in Austin, so there should be a first choice XI available for Schmetzer to choose.

“Don’t the Sounders wear green? Why is their lineup in red?” Well, the MLS rules committee has stated that the Sounders’ “light jerseys” (puke green) can’t be used against the Timbers’ “light jerseys” (rose). Their “light jerseys'' can't be worn against the Timbers’ “dark” jerseys because they’re both green. So we get the incredibly unappetizing “ugly fightless dragon” jerseys against the “overused but I still love them” rose jerseys for the third time this year. This is a policy failure that the higher-ups really don’t care about. Moving on to their actual lineup, Schmetzer cannot afford to fail to win another home match against Portland. But he’s also a stubborn man and we need him to continue to be pig-headed. Studies (and live matches) have shown that this lineup does not work, but there’s a reason why Seattle rotated so heavily on Wednesday. Vargas could be replaced by Rusnak, or Rusnak could slot in on the right wing while Morris moves to the left side. Either way, there won’t be any funny business from Schmetzer on Saturday night. A sigh of relief emanates from the entire city of Portland.

The Timbers also won their Wednesday match and are hoping to ride the momentum. Sebastian Blanco earned his first start of the season, and was pleased at training on Thursday after the team picked up another crucial three points. One thing I love about this squad is how much they understand the Seattle rivalry. Juan David Mosquera posted on Instagram with a fishing emoji included in the caption. Diego Chara commented on the importance of the Seattle match multiple times in Wednesday’s post-match press conference. But there are a few new faces in the team who haven’t been involved in a Seattle match yet. Blanco is willing to help: “We have to help these new players understand what it means to play against Seattle. We’ve had many victories on that field.” Blanco, per usual, is completely correct. Since the Timbers entered MLS, they have the advantage over the Sounders in all competitions; 18-8-14. Last time these two teams met in June, they made history. For the first time in MLS, a Timbers-Sounders match ended in a 0-0 draw. That result is significant for two more reasons. The Timbers now have two streaks they must keep alive on Saturday. The first is the 5-match unbeaten streak they have maintained against the Fishies since August 29, 2021. That’s across both home and away matches, but there’s another juicier streak that doesn’t actually seem accurate until you check the results. The Timbers have not lost in Seattle since May 27, 2017. That’s a streak of 9 matches. Let me repeat: the Timbers have not lost in 9 CONSECUTIVE MATCHES on their rival’s home turf. One of those results is misleading. While the Timbers “lost” the second leg of the 2018 Western Conference Semifinal at Lumen, they still advanced on penalty kicks. The only time a “loss” can actually be a win. So I’m not going to count it because only one fanbase went home distraught, and it was the one who watched their home team win a game and still get eliminated. If you look at Seattle’s recent home record, you would expect this trend to continue. However, the 2023 Timbers are absolutely AWFUL on the road. This week, Blanco and Diego Chara spoke on two separate days at two different facilities, but they shared one phrase in common: “Every match going forward is a final.” For these two veterans, these past two weeks have been very hard. It’s evident that they’re doing their best to ease the transition between Giovanni Savarese and Miles Joseph, but their repetition of one of Gio’s favorite phrases really stuck with me. Gio completely understood how important these Seattle games were, and is solely responsible for this 9-game unbeaten run at Lumen (OK, the first match out of the nine was under Porter, but Gio’s most impressive non-trophy accomplishment was keeping that run going for the entirety of his tenure). I don’t have that worry about Miles Joseph, because he’s also been present for this streak. I do have beef with the schedule makers for a lot of reasons, but making the Timbers and Sounders play each other on a short week is so stupid. I don’t feel as hateful as I should, and that’s a policy failure. However, the team’s mentality is more important than mine, and they’re going to be fully locked in come kickoff time. The three-four-five hour drive to Lumen will already be enough time to let the hate fully build up inside me. Motivation shouldn’t be a problem, and there are a ton of factors that will fire up these players. Did you know that the Timbers haven’t won consecutive games in all of 2023? There is no better time for the first consecutive win than Saturday. All of this should culminate in a fascinating viewing experience on Saturday night. 

Rotation is the only issue for the Timbers. No new injuries were sustained against RSL, and proper recovery is the best tool the Timbers can employ to ensure that they can get their best XI on the field on Saturday night. This is what that best XI looks like:

I love making definitive statements and then contradicting myself in the next sentence. If this was actually the Timbers’ best XI, Sebastian Blanco would be starting over Yimmi Chara. But I don’t believe that Blanco will be physically ready to make a second consecutive start in four days. However, he could surprise me, and we all know how much he hates Seattle. Moreno is undroppable. Same with the entire midfield and the backline. Bingham will probably start over Ivacic again. The real controversy comes at the striker position. It seems perfectly logical for Joseph to start Felipe Mora after he’s scored in consecutive matches. Plus the logic checks out for rotation’s sake. Yimmi vs. Dairon vs. Marvin vs. Antony is an interesting debate for the left wing position, but I think Yimmi has the most to prove, so he gets the start. Blanco will probably see the field as a substitute. One thing Joseph got 100% correct against RSL was the substitutes. Each one was made with a specific purpose that helped the Timbers successfully kill off the game. I’m going to get to my X-Factor substitute in my tactical preview, but there is one player who I’m begging to see come off the bench in this match. All in all, this is a team that has rivalry experience and can get the job done on Saturday night. 

The Timbers and assistant coach Carlos Llamosa mutually parted ways today. This news does make me sad, but I also completely understand it. Llamosa is a fantastic coach and it’s never good when a quality coach departs the team. He didn’t return to the team following Gio’s firing, and a part of me thought he wouldn’t come back. It’s now official, and I hope he finds success in his next venture. Portland will miss him.

Time to dig into some tactics. I’ve previously espoused how important it is for the Timbers to score first, and Saturday night is no exception. In order to score first, the Timbers must target the right side of Seattle’s defense. Alex Roldan is better going forward than staying back, so getting the left winger (whoever starts there but I’m assuming Yimmi) behind him will be crucial for the Timbers to get their attacks going. Evander also tends to stay in those left half-spaces and also will split out wider on that left side. If Wednesday was a Moreno game, Saturday will have to be an Evander game. Not that Moreno and Mosquera will be completely quiet either. Nouhou is still an excellent defensive fullback, but he’s beginning to drop off slightly. Moreno and Mosquera will have their work cut out for them, but I’m more worried about counterattacks on that side. If they lose the ball in that area of the pitch with Mosquera pushed high up, disaster could be Lumen (looming). I’m very interested to see how much the Timbers press. Joseph has begun implementing a high press, so I’m eager to see how much pressing the tactical plan calls for. We are also learning more and more about Joseph’s tactical approach with every game. He wants his wingers to stay wider and I think that fits with our current personnel. I think it might be time to throw in the towel on a back three in 2023. No matter how much I think our squad would fit one, we’re in too deep to completely switch up the tactics. Let’s now turn to a welcome development: the unselfish run into the box. The Timbers have scored twice in each of Joseph’s two games in charge, and both second goals in each match have featured some excellent runs into the box to open space for the eventual goal-scorer. Against Vancouver, it was Franck Boli opening space for Evander. Against RSL, it was Cristhian Paredes opening the space for Felipe Mora. That’s one striker and one 8 making those runs for the good of the team. It cannot be understated how important those runs are, and this team has been moving better off the ball in these past two games than they have under Gio. However, there is still one big issue: pace and urgency in the counterattack. I don’t want to pick on Dairon Asprilla, but he’s not being as direct as he should be once a counterattack starts. I think his best role in this match is a chaos substitute who can wreak havoc in the latter stages. Cut those brakes and jump out the back of the van Dairon; you’re my favorite wild card. But he’s not my X-Factor sub for this game; Eric Miller is. It was a shock to some when he started the June 3rd match in Seattle, but he put in an excellent display. At some point, he should come on for Mosquera to protect a lead the Timbers have. I do believe that Portland will score first. Not only have they gone unbeaten in 9 at Lumen, they’ve kept 3 clean sheets in a row at the car show. It’s not like Seattle has had a shortage of chances either. In that 0-0, the Timbers were dominant defensively, and Miller was a huge part of that. The Timbers have also had several spells of positive possession, but they’re still not creating as many chances as they could be. I’ve seen improvement from game to game under Joseph in that regard, so I’m banking on that continuing into Saturday. Both Seattle and Portland are largely struggling despite their wins on Wednesday. Both sides have something major to prove, and this is the biggest stage they could make a point on. I think a Timbers win is more significant in this current season, and the fire under Schmetzer’s seat should still be growing. Let’s see what happens.

CASCADIA TIME!!!!!

*table still not updated, shame*

Vancouver has a two point lead in the Cup race. In order for the Timbers to still have a chance, they need to win. No other result besides a win would keep Cascadia in Portland. They need to win and they need either a draw or a Sounders win on October 7th at Lumen against Vancouver to win the Cup. Goal differential goes in our favor in the event of a draw. Even though the Whitecaps have the points lead, the Timbers still have the best goal differential between all Cascadia teams. Time to take care of business up north and keep the Cascadia Cup in the Rose City for another year.

For the first time all season, I am going to recommend a Spanish broadcast. Not that I have any beef with the Spanish language, but Diego Valeri is on the call for Saturday’s match. The English team features Max Bretos and Phil Neville. I’m picking Valeri every single time. It’s a 7:30 PM kickoff time on Apple TV, and I am very angry about it. I will be attending this match in person, and I almost didn’t make the choice to travel for it. The Timbers Army did arrange for two buses to carry people, but I was intent on trying to take the train for the match. As a train lover, I was disappointed to find no Amtrak route leaving on Saturday night after the match would end. That would force me to stay another day in Seattle, which is just a waste of time. Sure, I could go eat seafood, or look at a wall of gum, or go look at their funny monument to the Stratosphere tower in Vegas, but why would I do that just to travel by train? Needless to say, my choice is unfortunately limited to a car ride and an exorbitant parking fee. This could easily be a 1:30 PM or a 5 PM kickoff, but Apple is needlessly stubborn with their awful scheduling. To echo a familiar theme, this is another policy failure on multiple fronts. 

Two teams, in completely opposite positions, are unhappy. Both fanbases are upset at their front offices for two completely different but valid reasons. Neither team can afford to lose tomorrow, but odds are one will. No matter how much I am looking for the Sounders to invent a 10-match winless streak at Lumen against their biggest rival, nothing about this game will be easy. As Miles Joseph said in Thursday’s pre-match press conference: “You put everything to the side for a game against Seattle and you leave it all on the field.” Gut the fish. Gut the f***ing fish.

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