Sporting Kansas City-Portland Timbers Preview (5/28)

After three months of Saturdays and Wednesdays, the Timbers’ first Sunday game of the season has finally arrived. They are traveling to Kansas City for a reverse fixture of the season opener. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses and a victory is desperately needed for each team. 

SKC started off this year with a 1-0 loss in Providence Park. But their misery was just beginning. Their season opened with a 10-game unbeaten streak, with only three draws in that span. They looked absolutely dead and beaten before a trip to Lumen Field on May 7th allowed them to turn their season around. Well, that’s the narrative SKC fans want. Since that crucial win, they have gone 1-1-1 in league play, with a win, draw, and loss in that order. Their win was an impressive 3-0 bashing of Minnesota. Then they drew midweek at LAFC, which is another strong result. However, their focus had to be on their inaugural rivalry match with St. Louis this past Saturday. Their new archrivals tore them apart 4-0. It’s a massively disappointing result for a team that seemed to be turning the corner. They are still buried in the standings, sitting in 13th in the Western Conference with a 2-4-8 record (10 points). And it’s no surprise given the state of their attack and their defense.

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In those 14 matches, SKC has only scored 9 goals. They are dead last in goals per game in the league. A lot of this unproductivity is due to a lack of quality chance creation, and the few chances they do create don’t get finished. They are underperforming their xG by 3 goals, which is very bad. They are 3rd-worst in the league in xG, with 12.5 xG created through 14 games. The oddest thing is their rank in shots on target per match. With an average of 4.9 (good for 7th in the league), they are clearly getting looks inside and around the box but can’t put them away. Do not worry, they are also bad at defending. Despite having 4 clean sheets, they have allowed 3+ goals in a match 3 times. Their lack of stability at center back is the key reason why. It is also worth noting that their keeping situation has been odd. Tim Melia is still the de-facto number 1, but 22-year old John Pulskamp has put in some good performances. Melia has been ruled out with a quad injury for several months, yet former Timber Kendall McIntosh started the past two matches for the Wizards (it’s still their nickname, oddly). The returns of Alan Pulido and Gadi Kinda are massive for this team, and their returns coincided with their short rebound. But this is a hungry team, and with growing pressure on Peter Vermes this is a must-win game in front of their fans. 

Kansas City is in the midst of another injury crisis, with several players being added to the injury report this week. Pulido, Dany Rosero, Logan Ndembe, and Khiry Shelton are all questionable. I think Pulido does start on Sunday, but Rosero will not. This is still pretty much a first XI though. Part of SKC’s decline has been instability at the center back position. The days of Ike Opara are long gone. Fontas is the elder statesman, and Robert Castellanos has not been good in his limited minutes in 2023. Rosero’s absence would be massive, but he’s not a true difference maker at CB either. Pulskamp finally returns to the starting XI after his benching. Kendall McIntosh conceded four to St. Louis last Saturday, and I wouldn’t bank on him earning another start following that performance. KC’s strength remains their midfield. Kinda’s return from injury has been a huge part of their semi-revival, and Erik Thommy has been a shrewd signing. Radoja will try to put last weekend behind him. Daniel Salloi and Johnny Russell are locked in on both wings. If Pulido is fit he will play. There is such a gap between him and the other options at the 9 position. If he doesn’t, Shelton is the most likely backup, but he’s also questionable. SuperDraft pick Stephen Afrifa might be pressed into action. With all the questionable tags, part of this XI is very hard to predict. But this is the best I can do with the current information. 

What exactly are the Timbers? Their 4-4-6 record isn’t pretty to look at, but they have had a few matches this season where everything seemed to click. The long rest ahead of this game is a huge boost for this team that looked exhausted as last week wore on. Every healthy player aside from Dario Zuparic will be available on Sunday. So the Timbers’ lineup will be very familiar.

With the lineup pretty much settled, I’m going to expand on the one change from the Timbers’ first XI. Larrys Mabiala has given a ton of service to the club. I have him starting on my MLS-era Timbers XI. But over the past two seasons, it has become abundantly clear that his skills have regressed significantly. Yes, he is the only other true center back on the first team roster. But Tyler Clegg definitely has a stake to the backup CB spot at this moment. The SuperDraft is a perfect place to find center backs. Given how draftees tend to be older than youth academy products, it makes sense that experienced center backs become the jewels of draft hauls. Tyler Clegg certainly hasn’t edged out Zuparic or Zac McGraw, but in my opinion he has definitely earned himself a couple spot starts. And that’s exactly what this match would be: a spot start. We know what Mabiala is at this juncture in his career. For both of Clegg’s first team appearances in the Open Cup this year, his partner was Mabiala. It is a step up from Open Cup to playing in a full league game, but he has played with a weak supporting cast in both of his starts. I would love to see what he can do, and the team should have given him another short-term loan to prove himself on the big stage. He didn’t get that opportunity, and now we have to stress over a center back who we all know shouldn’t be starting for this team anymore. 

Before I get into a tactical preview of this match, I had an opportunity to have a conversation with Juan Mosquera this week. The most impressive takeaway I had from that conversation was his maturity. He is only 20 years old, but he carries himself like he’s been a professional player for 15+ years. And he knows it. “I think I’m a very mature player even though I’m young. I played in some of the most important tournaments in Colombia and South America when I was there. Also playing with the Colombian National Team has helped me with that.” He continued to discuss how even though he’s a defender, he has a lot of attacking quality. He’s very comfortable getting forward and he definitely plays to his strengths. It’s hard to believe he’s only been here for less than a year, but he credits his easy transition to his teammates and family. “I think this city has been very welcoming. I’m here with my wife, and I feel very good in that sense with the city. Having so many Colombians on the team made it a lot easier for me. On the field, I have been able to give a lot to the team and I plan on continuing to do so.” So far, he has 2g/2a in 13 matches from the right back position. Players can lead both on and off the field, and Mosquera leads by example whenever he is on the pitch. A crucial part of this team, and already one of the best right backs in MLS. And he knows he is. 

In the past two years, SKC-Portland matches have been very high scoring. You could make the argument that the season opener could’ve been as equally high scoring if both teams were finishing their chances well. However, I’m going to point to a memorable result from last year that should give the Timbers a blueprint to a dominant victory at Children’s Mercy Park. The 7-2 game played last May in Portland still has a lot of validity a year later. If Kansas City concedes early in a game, the bottom tends to fall out really quickly. Their defeats at home to Seattle and at St. Louis serve as a reminder of that. There are two ways Portland can exploit that weakness: be clinical and be decisive. To be clinical, they need to focus on peppering the goal with shots. Against Minnesota, they often lost any advantage to shoot due to bad touches or just waiting too long to get the shot off. That’s where being decisive comes in. SKC can get ripped open on the counterattack, and Portland needs to recognize those moments and start sending runners forward. In the past two seasons watching this team, there are only one or two extra runners who get forward in most counter-attacking situations. Cristhian Paredes has been a key runner in those situations, and Franck Boli also has an incredible motor. Put Kansas City on their heels and don’t be wasteful. Keep one of the fullbacks back while the other charges forward to help so Salloi and Russell can’t punish an overextended back line with Larrys Mabiala in it. Throughout every minute except the final one of the Minnesota game this team was solid defensively, but that one chance that the Loons put home was the difference. Santiago Moreno will be the most crucial player for Portland against SKC. I don’t say that to discount Evander, but his decision making will need to be top-tier for the Timbers to try and grab an early lead. Graham Zusi is still not a right back. The Timbers need to exploit that. Let Evander drift further to the left to combine with Yimmi (and eventually Santi when the wingers switch sides) and control the game in SKC’s weakest area of the field. Set pieces were a concern in the season opener, and Aljaz Ivacic needs to have full control of his box during any dangerous opportunity. Claudio Bravo will also have a full plate having to deal with Johnny Russell. And most important of all, the Timbers need to remain structured and settled. No loose giveaways, no badly played passes. I’ve always been OK with passes that are good ideas (over-the-top balls, ambitious switches, certain through balls) but don’t get executed to the fullest. Any easy pass between 2 players that is just meant to retain possession needs to be completed perfectly. Put together a strong, structured, and clean performance that will let us walk out of Kansas City with a deserved three points. With the extra rest we have had this week, it would be borderline criminal not to. 

In terms of TV options, FOX is broadcasting this game. Not FS1, the big FOX channel. That should make it easy for the entire fanbase to watch this game. Keep in mind that kickoff will be delayed to around 12:25 PM Pacific time because it is a nationally broadcasted game. If you still want to watch it on Apple, Ross Smith will be in the commentary booth. This match will also be in a stand-alone window with no other MLS games on, so any fan of the league will be tuning in. That makes it extra important for the Timbers to truly show up with so many eyes on them. And I believe that they will.

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