Sporting Kansas City-Portland Timbers Preview (4/7)

Following three straight losses, the Portland Timbers (2-1-3, 7 points, 8W/17S) must travel to Kansas City (2-3-1, 9 points, 6W/13S). The last time Portland won in Kansas City was the Western Conference Final in 2018. Before then, their only other victory was in April 2013. They’ve only won twice in Kansas City, but they have a record of 2-4-5 at Children’s Mercy Park. However, their last two trips have resulted in 4-1 losses. Can the Timbers win in Kansas City for only the third time in their history on Sunday?

The SKC Report

At this time last year, SKC was in the mud. After losing 1-0 at home to Colorado, they traveled to San Jose and got spanked 3-0. Their season-opening winless streak would stretch for 10 games before a 2-1 win in Seattle on May 7th triggered a massive turnaround. They snuck into the playoffs as the 8 seed, beat San Jose in the wildcard game, and then thoroughly punked their in-state rivals St. Louis in the Best-of-3 round. However, they would lose to Houston in the Conference Semifinals. They ended 2023 as one of the hottest teams in the league and fans were feeling pretty good about 2024. However, SKC decided to go back to the mud in the offseason. 

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On January 11th, the top brass of Sporting Kansas City decided to hire former Portland Timbers GM Gavin Wilkinson. I have no idea what compelled them to do so other than a raging humiliation fetish. Wilkinson was fired by the Timbers in October 2022 after the release of the Yates Report. The report confirmed that Wilkinson both enabled and vouched for former Thorns coach and predator Paul Riley and also failing to address domestic violence allegations regarding former Timbers player Andy Polo. No matter what the SKC decision-makers thought Wilkinson could do in the personnel department, his reputation was forever tarnished by his own actions. After a year out of the game, they thought that Wilkinson could make a return to a MLS front office. SKC fans revolted, and Wilkinson was let go 8 days later. Not even a full Scaramucci. Just a completely useless waste of time and energy from SKC management. They didn’t have to do it, but they decided to antagonize their own fans for no good reason. However, my sympathy does go out to Wilkinson in some way. He never had a chance to host a fan forum and lie to SKC fans. I believe that he’s still waiting in a conference room at the Airport Hilton in Kansas City for a crowd of fans that will never show up. 

Graham Zusi and Roger Espinoza left the club in the 2023 offseason. So did DP midfielder Gadi Kinda. The only notable offseason addition was free agent Memo Rodriguez. They started off 2024 with 3 straight draws before getting their first win against San Jose. A gutting loss at home to the Galaxy followed, where the hosts blew a 2-0 lead in the second half. Last week, they traveled to Toronto and won 3-1. Sunday’s match is the first in a 3-game homestand, and the Wizards are looking to climb the standings in the month of April.

In 2024, SKC are out-performing their xG. Tim Melia has started all 6 games and is turning back the clock. He has posted a +3.7 PSxG-G number so far in 2024. The midfield 3 of Nemanja Radoja, Remi Walter, and Erik Thommy are among the best in the league when they’re playing their best ball. But the story of 2024 has been the fullbacks. Jake Davis was a former midfielder who began the transition to fullback last season. So far, he is leading the team in touches per 90. Left back Tim Leibold has also been key, coming in second in touches per 90. Vermes has been alternating between a 4-2-3-1 and his preferred 4-3-3. The difference is Alan Pulido. He’s been playing as a second striker in the 10 position for some games this year. Both formations have their positives and negatives, but Vermes is showing tactical flexibility that we haven’t seen from him in a long time. 

SKC rank 9th in MLS with an average of 23.83 shot-creating actions per 90. The data says that they’re an excellent rebounding team; their average of 2.17 shots that lead to another shot per 90 is 4th in the league. SKC rank in the middle of the pack in terms of possession, and they are a dangerous team in transition. Defensively, SKC are only winning an average of 8.17 tackles per 90 (24th in MLS), but they are completing those tackles at a rate of 55.6% (7th in MLS). When they want the ball, they’re very good at taking it away. 

Logan Ndembe and Johnny Russell are both out for tomorrow’s match. Khiry Shelton is questionable with an ankle injury.

Pulido missed last week’s victory in Toronto, but since he’s healthy he’s back in the starting lineup. With Russell still out, Erik Thommy will take his place on the right wing. Remi Walter and Nemanja Radoja are a good double pivot. Daniel Salloi has had a slow start to 2024 and is looking to open his account for this season. Old foe Willy Agada starts up top. The back five remain unchanged. Felipe Hernandez, Memo Rodriguez, Alenis Vargas, and Marinos Tzonis are names to watch off the bench.

The Timbers Report

Three straight defeats after three straight unbeaten to open the season is a rough fall to Earth. The hallmark of this 3-game losing streak has been defensive errors. From the Crepeau-Mosquera collision in Houston, to falling asleep on a quick free-kick against Philly, and finally the triad of mistakes in Vancouver. Phil Neville has had enough. During a brief interview on Tuesday, the head coach had this to say: “There have been some really harsh words said over the last two or three days. We need to cut these problems out fast.” In my recap of the Vancouver game, I spoke about how the team’s high press in the second half was able to turn the game around. I asked Neville about this on Tuesday, and this is how he responded: “We want to be a team that’s hard to beat whether we’re high-pressing, mid-pressing, or low-blocking.” He spoke about the mentality of the team and how that’s more important than any tactical shift. I think that he’s right but he’s also wrong here. Does the team’s mentality decide how high they press? In terms of this week’s game, the team has to be mentally sharp defensively. That’s what Neville has been stressing all week, and it does transcend the many different ways a team can defend. Being aggressive doesn’t just apply to pressing. You have to be tenacious in a mid or low block too. But Neville’s comments seem to indicate that there will be no serious tactical switch. We’ve seen the Timbers put together an excellent defensive performance already (Houston) but one mistake was too much to overcome. Sunday will be a true test of Neville’s guidance and leadership. 

In terms of the raw numbers, Portland’s defensive tenacity doesn’t look terrible. They’re actually allowing an average of 20 shot-creating actions per 90, which is the same number as the Seattle Sounders. They’re in the middle of the pack with a tackle success rate of 51.9% per game. But in terms of mistakes, they are 4th-worst in MLS with 0.5 errors leading to a shot per 90. It’s the mental side where they are still woefully behind the curve. They’re not just battling SKC on Sunday; they will have to conquer the far post as well.

There are several interesting numbers concerning the attack. The Timbers rank 10th in successful take-ons that lead to a shot per 90. In terms of combined shot-creating actions, the Timbers are firmly in the middle of the pack. If we look at passing, the Timbers are leading the league in dead-ball passes per 90. If I was on the coaching staff, I would try to emphasize quick and effective restarts. This makes sense because the Timbers are drawing the most fouls per 90 in the league this season. The Timbers are also completing long passes at the best rate per game in MLS this season (66.5%). I don’t have any other stats to throw out right now, but I found these very interesting.

On Tuesday, Claudio Bravo was training with the first team. During Neville’s pre-match press conference, he confirmed that Bravo will be traveling with the team and be available for selection. Marvin Loria and Larrys Mabiala are still out. Zac McGraw is a late add to the injury report. He will miss tomorrow’s game with a head injury.

Even though Bravo is available to play, I don’t think he starts. If he does start, he’s probably cleared for a maximum of 60 minutes. Neville didn’t elaborate on how many minutes Bravo is available for, so I’m predicting another Eric Miller start at left back. Dario Zuparic will partner Kamal Miller due to McGraw’s injury, but even if McGraw was healthy I’d still predict a Zuparic start. It has to be Ayala time in the midfield. Eryk Williamson and Cristhian Paredes are excellent options to bring in off the bench. The front four remains unchanged.

Tactical Preview

Mentality, mentality, mentality. Last season when the Timbers visited KC Franck Boli grabbed the lead 8 minutes in. But the Timbers didn’t press their advantage and they let SKC grow into the game. Erik Thommy equalized in the 33rd minute and the hosts added 3 more in the second half. The 2024 Timbers have shown an incredible ability to get back into a game after falling behind early. In order to get their first regular-season win at Children’s Mercy Park in over a decade, the Timbers have to be able to defend and attack as a team and show the mental fortitude to win from the opening kickoff.

Let’s start with the defense. Against Houston, the Timbers defended as a team and would have recorded a clean sheet if Maxime Crepeau and Juan Mosquera didn’t have a communication error. Crepeau has started 4 games thus far, and he’s had communication errors in two of those games. Last week’s loss in Vancouver was decided by Crepeau and Dario Zuparic converging on a low cross, failing to corral it, and a point-blank finish from Ryan Raposo. The entire Timbers backline must communicate throughout this game. In terms of the rest of the team, they have to defend on the front foot. Don’t be afraid to get stuck in. Show the mentality and will to win the ball back. 

The attack just needs the ball to be progressed into the final third where Evander can find the game. In the second half against NYCFC, the Timbers were routinely able to carry the ball through multiple lines of weak pressure. That’s not going to be the case every week. I’ve already gone over Portland’s struggles with ball progression, which is why I think David Ayala is desperately needed in this game. Kamal Miller and Ayala give the Timbers another way to progress the ball: long passing. Get the ball into the wide areas where Santiago Moreno and Antony can work their magic. Then Mosquera can overlap and use his excellent crossing ability to find players in the box. I’m also going to talk about attacking set pieces. Another part of “the winning mentality” is dominating set pieces. The Timbers need to find a way to score on a corner kick. Evander’s set piece delivery has been the most inconsistent part of his game in 2024. Since McGraw will be absent for this game, different corner routines should be used to create space for a second ball into the box. Good teams dominate all phases of set pieces. Time to make some progress on that front.

Final Thoughts

The Timbers have two streaks that they’re trying to break tomorrow. They have to end this 3-game losing streak and they are trying their hardest to do it in a building where they haven’t won since Liam Ridgewell was on the pitch, not the touchline. Speaking of which, I had the opportunity to interview Ridgy this week as a guest on Stumptown Radio. I’d highly recommend giving this episode a listen if you haven’t already. 

This is Phil Neville’s best chance to prove to Timbers fans that he can turn around the team’s culture. After three straight avoidable losses, the schedule doesn’t get any more favorable. In order to weather this storm and simultaneously turn their latest woes around, the Portland Timbers have to win this game. Let’s see if they do. 

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