St. Louis CITY-Portland Timbers Preview (6/8)

Welcome to the International Break portion of the MLS season. Common sense would dictate that Major League Soccer should pause their season so teams could enjoy full-strength rosters to play league games. However, even though MLS’ roster rules remain incredibly inflexible, there will be games during both of the summer’s major tournaments: the EUROs and Copa America. Phil Neville addressed this on Thursday: “If you take away even one player from a team it’s an unfair advantage….In a FIFA window, I do think that if you’ve got players then it’s an unfair advantage….I do think it’s something over the next two or three years that we need to take a look at.”

There will only be 8 teams in action over the weekend. The Portland Timbers are one of them. They haven’t had a single bye week yet. And they are hitting the road to St. Louis. 

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The STL Report

It has been over a year since these two teams last met. Since the Timbers made their inaugural trip to St. Louis in April 2023 and left with three points, the expansion side kept riding their hot start and won the West. They finished 3 points ahead of second-place Seattle and had the best goal differential in the Western Conference. It was a massive overachievement for the Raviolis, and they faced their archrivals in the first round of the playoffs. St. Louis lost both games and their excellent debut season ended with a whimper. Several key players (Nico Gioacchini, John Nelson, Jared Stroud, and Lucas Bartlett) departed the club in the offseason. Chris Durking and Tomas Totland were the top additions in the winter. Even though they lost a lot of production, last season’s massive success set the table for a big sophomore season. So how is it going in Year 2?

3-8-4. 17 points. 11th in the West and 23rd in the Shield. 2024 has been a big step back for St. Louis, but it isn’t really a slump either. DPs Joao Klauss and Eduard Lowen have missed extended periods of time, and the lack of a true replacement for Gioacchini has really hampered the Raviolis. In 2023, St. Louis outperformed their xG by the second-largest margin in the league. They are 10th-worst in MLS in that category this season. Last year, they were 10th-worst in cumulative non-penalty xG. Their overperformance was directly responsible for winning the West, and now they are falling back to Earth. But they aren’t a bad team. Bradley Carnell came in, established an identity, and has been able to use the entire roster. They are missing some quality attackers, but their main source of attack is the press. Last year, they were able to prey on the defensive mistakes of other teams and were able to turn them into goals. That same formula isn’t working in 2024, and they don’t have the attacking talent to turn draws into wins. But they are a team that knows how they want to play, and that makes them a tough opponent to face. St. Louis is underperforming their expected points by 3. They have the frame of a good team, but they aren’t a great one.

Kyle Hiebert is the only St. Louis player on international duty. Rasmus Alm and Tomas Ostrak will miss tomorrow’s game due to injury.

The back four should remain unchanged from last weekend’s 3-3 draw in Miami. Burki won the Golden Glove last season, and that’s exactly the type of production you want when your keeper takes up a DP slot. Totland has been very good since arriving in Missouri, and Markanich is trying to make the left back position his own. Lowen is back after missing an extended period of time while his wife underwent treatment for brain cancer (get well soon, Mrs. Lowen). Chris Durkin has made the second spot in the double pivot his own during Lowen’s absence. Vassilev has done pretty well as a 10, and Pompeu had his best game of the season against Miami. Klauss is the entrenched starter up top. With both Alm and Ostrak injured, Jackson has a huge opportunity to earn more playing time on the right. Bradley Carnell loves to use his substitutes. Hosei Kojima and Samuel Adeniran are available to boost the attack off the bench, while Njabulo Blom is a good midfield sub if the game calls for it. This squad is built to compete, and it’s always hard to get a result at CITYPARK.

The Timbers Report

“Disrespect” is the hot word in the streets. It is no secret that MLS (the media outlet combined with the league) is always going to favor the big names. But over the past week the disrespect has been heightened to unbelievable levels. Let’s begin with the Goal of the Matchday (vomit) poll after the Austin game. If you recall, Evander scored an absolutely perfect free kick from about 30 yards out. Many non-partisan viewers would agree that it was one of the best goals scored during the midweek slate of games. Somehow that goal didn’t end up on the ballot for Goal of the Matchday voting. The YouTube goal compilations recognized how spectacular that goal was, but it wasn’t good enough for the league to take notice. Dogshit. Since it is June, voting is open for the All-Star Game. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of the All-Star Game, but it is important for all the players in the league. One of those players who is putting up an All-Star caliber season is Evander. Because MLS and Apple insist on 7:30 PM local time kickoffs, many East Coast viewers (unless they’re sickos) aren’t going to be tuning in for the majority of Timbers games. I just submitted my All-Star ballot, and I put two Timbers in the squad: Evander and Dario Zuparic. Evander would be an MVP candidate if the human outlier in Miami wasn’t here, and Zuparic is the best player in the league. “I deserve to be an All-Star,” Evander said on Thursday. Phil Neville has been praising his star player all season to any available media member within earshot. “He’s a match-winner,” Neville said on Thursday. The Brazilian just wants to do the best for the team, but he’s also eager for this individual honor. Time to counter the disrespect from the higher-ups. Vote Evander for All-Star in 2024.

The Portland Timbers have played exactly half of their MLS games, so it’s time to look at some stats. Evander has missed 4 games, but he ranks 8th in MLS in goals+assists per 90. Felipe Mora is ranked one spot above him. Mora’s quality movement, soccer IQ, and chemistry with his teammates can be measured by one stat: non-penalty xG per shot. Mora leads the league in this category. Even though Mora has taken the 99th-most shots in MLS this season, he is a true “fox-in-the-box.” The Chilean has generated the 7th-highest non-penalty xG in the league this season. Defensively, Diego Chara has shown very little signs of slowing down. The Timbers legend has won the 8th-most tackles in the league this season. Portland’s attack has been humming, and the defense continues to hold them back. All three players on international duty are part of the defensive unit. Such is the challenge of playing through an international break. 

Maxime Crepeau, Kamal Miller, and Miguel Araujo are on international duty. Diego Chara is suspended with yellow card accumulation. Marvin Loria is still out, and Felipe Mora is questionable with a leg injury.

Although the international “break” has done some damage to the backline, Portland can trot out their 2023 starters in St. Louis. Bravo, Zuparic, and Mosquera all started against Houston last weekend. McGraw hasn’t featured in the XI since the 2-0 loss to Charlotte, and this is a big prove-it game for him. Pantemis will start while Crepeau is with Canada. Paredes takes the place of the suspended Chara, and Ayala returns to the starting lineup after being benched due to fitness concerns against Houston. This is the same place where Ayala tore his ACL last season, so this is a huge opportunity for the young Argentine to complete his comeback from injury. Mora’s questionable status provides opportunities in the front four. Rodriguez should move over to striker while Moreno and Antony start on the wings. Evander will start as the 10 no matter what. Would I choose this front four in these positions? No, but my job is to predict what the coaching staff will do. Eryk Williamson, Eric Miller, Dairon Asprilla, and Nathan Fogaca are names to watch off the bench. There is a possibility of Asprilla starting over either Moreno/Antony, but I don’t think it’s very likely. Although the international window and player health have dented the Timbers’ squad, this is still a strong XI.

Tactical Preview

Long Balls

St. Louis’ bread and butter is their high press. All of their forwards excel at defending high up the pitch. But the Portland Timbers are built to counter that. The Timbers have been utilizing the long ball a ton over the past few games. If Rodriguez starts at striker, he will offer the perfect profile to exploit St. Louis’ high line. The Uruguayan is constantly looking to get in behind, and any ball over the top in his direction is always more than likely to result in a half-chance. Antony and Santiago Moreno are also incredibly quick and able to get in behind. Portland has plenty of players who are willing to play those long balls as well. It seems like the pathway to three points will depend on Portland’s ability to bypass St. Louis’ press with long balls. 

Duels

St. Louis is averaging the 5th-most touches in the attacking 3rd per 90 in the league. However, they rank second-worst in two major attacking categories: miscontrols and dispossessions per 90. The Raviolis are not good on the ball, and they use the press to try and win the ball back immediately after turnovers. This presents another pathway to three points: winning duels. When the Timbers visited CITYPARK last May, they won the majority of the duels. This includes both aerial and ground duels. In order to meet the intensity of the Raviolis, Portland has to win the majority of their duels tomorrow. And the lineup above is set up pretty well to accomplish that. Mosquera and Bravo are very good 1v1 defenders, Ayala and Paredes are both defensively stout and unafraid to get stuck in, and Antony and Moreno are both very good at defending farther up the pitch. McGraw and Zuparic are very good in the air. But mentality is still the most important aspect to Portland’s defending, and they will need to match St. Louis’ intensity in every area of the pitch.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Tony Husband and Ross Smith will be on the call this weekend. They are the best English broadcast team, and I say that without a hint of bias. Alejandro Figueredo and Eduardo Biscayart are on the Spanish broadcast. This match is NOT FREE on Apple TV, and kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 PM Pacific Time.

Referee Report

Ismir Pekmic will be the center referee tomorrow. He has never refereed a Portland Timbers match. If you were watching the Atlanta-Charlotte game last weekend, you might have noticed a controversial goal scored by Charlotte. After a very close save from Atlanta keeper Josh Cohen, the center ref gives a call of no goal on the field. But after a VAR review, the call is changed to goal given. Despite this ruling, there was no smoking gun angle of the ball definitively crossing the line, making this decision “mystifying,” in the words of Instant Replay host Andrew Wiebe. Pekmic was the center ref who made the decision in that game.

Final Whistle

Portland and St. Louis have only played each other twice. Both road teams won in those fixtures by a scoreline of 2-1. 

After tomorrow’s game, the Timbers will have played 18 MLS matches in 2024. They will be the first Western Conference team to reach that number. But the rest of their matches before the Leagues Cup break (aside from one) are against Western Conference opposition. That puts them in position to nullify other teams’ games in hand. Only three teams in the West have won 3 of their past 5 games. The Timbers are one of them, and the other two occupy the top two places in the table. There is an awful lot of negativity surrounding Timbers discourse online, and I’m completely confused why. Yes, this season has started off slowly. When do Timbers seasons ever get off to a fast start? Yes, the defense has been a serious problem. But the Timbers’ recent uptick in form has been buoyed by a defense that has been steadily improving. The season has never been decided in the opening months of the year. This club is the poster child of that. After this game, the Timbers will have an 11-day gap between games, which is the longest break so far this season. This team was “disappointed” after the draw against Houston. They thought that they deserved more from that game. Now they must hit the road, and try to enter an extended break with some tangible momentum. The visitors are unbeaten in three, while the hosts are winless in four. Time for the Timbers to win their second consecutive road game. 

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