St. Louis CITY SC-Portland Timbers Preview (4/29)

The first repeat opponent of the Timbers’ 2023 season is expansion team St. Louis CITY SC. They are making their first ever trip to CITYPark to try to split the season series (5:30 PM, free on Apple TV).

When both these teams met on March 11, St. Louis was riding the wave of their hot start and notched a comeback victory in Portland. It was seen as a signature win at the time, as Portland is a tough place to visit. But the Timbers were still in their injury plagued form, and couldn’t find a winner. St. Louis didn’t have a drop-off in intensity, and that led to them getting the winner. Another key facet of the match was Evander. He came in as an early sub for Cristhian Paredes, and left the match early due to a minutes restriction. Evander is now fully healthy, same with Paredes. 

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Following their victory over Portland, St. Louis extended their winning streak to five. It ended at home against Minnesota on April 1st, and then they fell prey to Seattle the next week. Those two matches are still the only losses on St. Louis’ 6-1-2 record, and they are tied for first in the Western Conference. The press has been working. You could argue that they were lucky to escape with a result against Colorado last weekend, given Colorado’s dominance on xG. But Roman Burki had an incredible performance in net, stopping 12 shots. But Colorado ended up equalizing late, and St. Louis took their anger out on Union Omaha in the Open Cup midweek. Only a couple first team players partook in their 5-1 destruction of the USL League One club. They are still a team with a massive chip on their shoulder, and they’re playing good soccer.

One (literally) massive chip St. Louis will be missing is star striker Joao Klauss. He is already ruled out for Saturday’s match. This is a big absence for the Fighting Raviolis (apparently this is their unofficial nickname, and it’s also fantastic). Klauss is integral to their press, and they have no one else in the squad who is a like-for-like replacement. 

Their backline is fully rested, and I expect this exact backline to suit up Saturday night. The wings and forward spot is pretty settled as well. However, Lowen is the only midfielder I can confidently put in the XI. Perez played the full 90 against Omaha, and Ostrak usually plays out wide. He could be swapped out for another striker in Carnell’s preferred 4-2-2-2. Celio Pompeu was the man of the match in their Cup tie, and Bradley Carnell could opt to ride with a confident young forward at home. Perez could start alongside Lowen, or it could be Indiana Vassilev in that role, but I’m projecting Perez in the XI due to Vassilev leaving the field with a knock in the Open Cup match. This XI is St. Louis’ best available players.

Portland, on the other hand, is getting healthier. Yimmi Chara traveled with the team to Missouri, and he is no longer listed on the injury report. Blanco already returned to the field against Orange County midweek, and he might be available for a cameo. However, two names are listed as questionable. Claudio Bravo’s tag is an upgrade from missing the Cincinnati game, while Dairon Asprilla is a late addition with a knee injury. Dario Zuparic will also be back with the team after clearing health-and-safety protocol. Given these updates, and the minutes some starters got in the Open Cup, here’s my predicted Timbers XI at CITYPark:

All players listed except for Moreno did not see the field midweek. Projecting a Yimmi start is a little optimistic, but he has looked lively in training. I expect Marvin Loria to be the substitute option off the bench. If Asprilla is cleared to play, he will start over Yimmi, but will probably be on a minutes restriction. Giovanni Savarese confirmed in Friday’s press conference that Bravo was available to play, but he will be on a minutes restriction. Justin Rasmussen went the full 90 against Orange County, so I would be interested in Eric Miller being Bravo’s backup. Paredes will back up the midfield spots. Evander’s backup will be Blanco, with Nathan Fogaca filling in behind Franck Boli. This is a strong lineup. A far cry from the back five they played in their first match against St. Louis on March 11th. 

The biggest key to this game will be playing through St. Louis’ press. Colorado, ironically, was the first team to truly give the blueprint on how to do it. Normally, I wouldn’t suggest playing through the middle, but Ayala has shown aptitude to attempt incredible passes. Klauss’ absence leaves a big hole in their press. Portland should take advantage of that hole. Evander will also be key. He seemed to play as a second forward against Cincy, and it resulted in his best game of the season. In the first St. Louis match, Evander was playing hurt. He’s still not fully healthy, as he stated in last week’s post-match presser, but he is improved from last time he saw the Raviolis. I am also looking forward to seeing more combinations from Evander, Boli, and Moreno. Defensively, set-pieces will be crucial. Portland conceded the winner on March 11th after they couldn’t competently clear a free kick. Their set-piece defense has been markedly improved in recent weeks, and that needs to continue to be a focus. Playing out the back is the Timbers’ preferred strategy, and conventional logic would argue for not doing that against a press. I don’t have an issue with the Timbers continuing to use that strategy, but they have to complete their passes. They cannot afford to give away easy chances, and St. Louis has famously taken advantage of opposition brain farts. Just play a solid, simple game with good fundamentals and let Evander continue to unlock the attack. 

A repeat opponent this early in the season is actually a treat. Giovanni Savarese is very familiar with their play style, and I have faith the Timbers are well-prepared for the style they will see. Crowd-wise, St. Louis has already proven to be a tough atmosphere to play in. The Timbers’ own experience with playing in a rowdy venue should also play to their advantage. By the way, CITYPark is already a top MLS stadium in my mind. All the pictures and footage I have seen from there makes me want to plan an away day to Missouri. Get some Ted Drewes and watch some footy. All in all, there is a reason why St. Louis has the respect of the league right now. It’s time for Portland to learn from their mistakes and split the season series.

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