The #GioOut Debate- Part 3

For Part 1, click here. For Part 2, click here.

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Author’s Note: This piece was written before Aljaz Ivacic went public with his disapproval of Savarese’s handling of his injury. All the facts of that situation are not out yet, but it is definitely worth mentioning. 

The Great Debate: Results vs. Performance

This is the crux of the debate: do we want to win or do we want to win and look incredible doing it? Savarese’s career record in charge of Portland is 86-42-63 across all competitions, with an average of 1.57 points per match. There is no doubting his ability to get results, but there is a common nickname for him besides El Profe: xGio. This is a pun based on the Expected Goals metric, which rates the quality of chances a team has and gives a number value on how many goals they should score based on those chances. The Timbers often dominate possession and chances, but still lose. The inverse of that is also true: with the Timbers not creating a ton of quality chances but still outperforming their xG. I have already covered Savarese’s approach focusing on his stars to be match-winners on a weekly basis. Time for a case study of a team in another league that is also dealing with this current debate topic.

West Bromwich Albion is my English club. You can imagine my excitement when former Baggie Liam Ridgewell joined the Timbers in 2014. They were in the Premier League for a long stretch of time, but were relegated in 2018. They have only played one top-flight season since (2020-21), which ended in expected relegation. They should be in the Premier League every season, and the club’s ownership group is massively to blame for that. The group of owners routinely use the team as their own bank, and now this season could decide how much longer this team exists. This crucial season started off with a possible relegation to League One before human cabbage Steve Bruce was sacked and Carlos Corberan was hired as the new manager. He has facilitated a massive turnaround to where the Baggies are now 5 points out of a playoff spot with a game in hand. However, some fans are not happy with him. A few 1-0 victories over lesser competition in the league has drawn fans’ ire due to a perceived “boring” style of play. The team does have a tactical identity, done by building out through the back. Lots of chances have been created, with finishing often being incredibly unlucky or just lacking inside the box. That miniscule faction of unhappy fans are not necessarily begging for Corberan to leave, but they are whining about tactics even after each crucial set of 3 points have been earned. The audacity to complain after a win given the current state of the club breaks my brain. But once again, they don’t just want to win. They want to win in style.

The Timbers are not West Bromwich Albion (although they currently have the same OPTA Global Power Rankings score, which I find extremely funny). The Baggies do have a manager who has implemented a tactical identity that the whole team has bought into. That’s what the Timbers lack. Evander is not Diego Valeri. Valeri was able to come right in and immediately elevate the team to his level. On the other side of the coin, Evander is more gifted right now than Valeri was when he showed up in the Rose City. This means that he has a higher understanding of the game than the current squad does. I’m not calling the squad bad and stupid, Evander is just a different caliber of player. He is also playing as a true 10 rather than at the 8, where he played in Denmark. This is going to require a learning curve, and it is exposing Savarese’s lack of a tactical identity. I do have faith the results will follow, but how long will it take before those results come? Timbers games have been marked by stress for Savarese’s entire tenure, with usually a few matches a year being a dominant, stress-free viewing experience. Last year’s examples are the 7-2 SKC match, the Colorado home match, and the Seattle away match, coincidentally the only matches last year the Timbers won by multiple goals. The tactics of this team do not lend well to dominant victories, but they do win a lot more often than they lose.

My Verdict

There is no concrete reason to fire Savarese. But another playoff miss will definitely open the doors to a ton of speculation. The Timbers fanbase is now used to consistent winning and trophy contention. I am going to provide my own trophy priority rankings for this season. The first trophy the Timbers should be gunning for is MLS Cup, obviously. Second should be the U.S. Open Cup, which provides the easiest (in terms of matches played) path to CONCACAF Champions League. Third should be Leagues Cup, as the Timbers have already won a cup trophy in an interrupted season. Fourth is the Shield, and given the injury list this shouldn’t be heavily prioritized in this particular season. Playoff qualification is the bare minimum expectation for this squad. Cascadia Cup is second on this list in my heart, but Savarese usually wakes up for rivalry games, and those matches aren’t a truly separate competition aside from fights for playoff seeding. It’s pure rivalry bragging rights, and of course those matches will already be prioritized. Bottomline, there is a lot of reason for on-field concern. There is no evidence at this point that he has lost the locker room, and if he does at any point, I would emphatically call for him to be fired. But although there are great options possibly available (Pa Modou Kah, maybe Liam Ridgewell? Hugo Perez if I really think outside the box?), the pressure to find another manager who can deliver consistent results will be massive. I will definitely revisit this topic after this season ends, but at this point, Savarese is in the middle of the most difficult season he has had in Portland. We will see how he responds, because we are all rooting for him to turn it around. It will not be easy, by any means. 

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