The Party Poopers

Tonight’s game was supposed to have a familiar script. The Portland Timbers, winners of only two road games all season, were set up to be the sacrificial lamb at the altar of St. Louis’ week-old Open Cup title. With a banner being raised amidst a smattering of fireworks and cheers, the pregame festivities seemed to foretell Portland’s incoming doom.

But the script deviated once again. These Timbers, who were tired of being sacrificial lambs after a pretty long history of doing so, decided that they needed to keep their season alive. The only way to do that was to win.

And winning would be a tall task. St. Louis’ Open Cup title was the crowning achievement of a team that had authored a 21-game unbeaten streak throughout the summer and into the fall. The hallmark of their dominance was an ability to not lose at home, with their last loss at Energizer Park taking place on April 25th against San Jose. Portland’s dismal road record already didn’t work in their favor, with St. Louis’ home-field dominance provided a fearsome obstacle.

None of those circumstances mattered. Only one thing did. The Raviolis were going to hang a banner. And the Timbers were hell-bent on ruining their party. With a priceless 3-2 victory, Portland’s playoff hopes remain gloriously alive.

Recap

The first 15 minutes were very dull. And I’ve never been happier to watch 15 dull minutes of soccer.

St. Louis was able to create the first big chance in the 10th minute. A long ball from Tino Baumgartl found Conrad Wallem in Portland’s box. After taking it to the endline, the Norwegian cut it back to the top of the six-yard-box. Carlo Holse was there, but his shot got blocked by Diego Chara. Tomas Totland recovered the second ball and sent another cross into the box, but Joel Waterman cleared it away.

The Timbers responded 6 minutes later with a good chance of their own. Jimer Fory held the ball on the sideline for Cole Bassett to scoop up and begin running towards goal. He found David Da Costa in the box, who backheeled it to Kristoffer Velde. The Norwegian had a good look at goal, and decided to test backup goalkeeper Ben Lundt’s near post coverage. The 6’5” mountain of a shot-stopper stopped the shot. The Timbers would learn from this.

The next 25 minutes were pretty quiet, and that was by design. St. Louis held a vast majority of the ball, but were unable to generate any major chances. Joao Ortiz made a huge goal-line tackle to deny Damion Downs in the 23rd minute, but the only other shots were two 36th-minute chances from Downs and Navarro. The Timbers, meanwhile, were held shotless from the 16th to the 38th minute. That drought was broken by a Joel Waterman header from a corner kick, which my notes categorized as a “flick header” and therefore not a shot. Velde fed Bassett in the 40th minute, but the American midfielder’s close-range shot was blocked. And then, as the Timbers were gaining some momentum, they decided to capitalize on it.

In the 42nd minute, several Timbers swarmed Downs as he held the ball down by the corner flag outside St. Louis’ box. This heavy counterpress forced a turnover, but the Timbers chose to recycle rather than immediately attack. That might seem slightly counterintuitive at first glance, but there was a strategy. The ball got recycled to Kamal Miller, who found Bassett on the touchline. The Raviolis were drawn upfield by Portland’s retreat, and the space was open in behind to exploit. That’s where Velde was running, and Bassett found him with a nicely-played through ball. The Norwegian winger made his first touch inside the box, drew Lukas MacNaughton close to him, and promptly disposed of the goofy Canadian defender by cutting inside and creating some space for himself. This time, he decided to test the far post. Lundt dove but couldn’t get a hand to it. Timbers lead 1-0, right before halftime.

And in another change from the script, the Timbers weren’t immediately thrown into danger following a goal. Instead, they were hungry for more. A slip pass from Velde in the 44th minute found Bassett close to the endline, and a square ball for Ariel Lassiter followed. The close-range shot went in, but the offside flag went up.

It was the right call. Brutal for the Timbers, who were almost entering halftime with a 2-0 lead. But when adversity strikes, a response is needed. They wanted that 2-0 halftime lead, and all they had to do was score another goal.

First, St. Louis was granted a chance to respond. In the 1st minute of first-half stoppage time, Wallem floated a cross towards Totland at the back post. Totland rose up over Ronald Hernandez, put the header on target, but James Pantemis was able to stuff it. One minute later, the scoreline changed in Portland’s favor.

Fory had the ball on the left and found Da Costa on the left wing. He was running at Baumgartl; my presumptive pick for Defender of the Year. The following sequence has seriously made me reconsider that vote. Da Costa drove at Baumgartl, nutmegged him, and beat Lundt at the far post to give the Timbers a 2-0 lead in the 3rd minute of stoppage time. They would hold that lead as the halftime whistle blew.

Some adjustments were made by both teams during the halftime break. Portland’s press that had worked so well in the first half shifted into a deeper block to protect their 2-goal lead. But that block would allow the Timbers to hit on the counter. This strategy paid off 3 minutes into the second half.

Lassiter pinged a long ball to Da Costa, who was alone in acres of space with only Baumgartl on hand to provide an immediate detour. That detour showed Portuguese Dave even closer to goal and a 1v1 chance with Lundt. Da Costa tried to go to the near post, but Lundt denied him. Gotta stop going to the near post on that guy, I guess. But Da Costa got his own rebound and found Velde a few yards behind. With space to work, Velde cut inside and curled the ball off the far post and into the back of the net for a 3-0 Timbers lead in the 48th minute. It was actually going to happen. The Timbers were going to win this must-win game on the road against a superior opponent. A 3-0 lead seemed insurmountable. But St. Louis was about to have even more initiative, so the Timbers would still have to defend with their lives.

Holse would provide a chance for the Raviolis in the 54th minute by sending a tasty cross towards the penalty spot. It was met by MacNaughton’s head and sailed into the stands. But St. Louis was bound to score a goal tonight, and Portland’s shutout was broken in the 58th minute.

Waterman cleared the ball from the corner but MacNaughton headed it to Wallem. One touch moved the ball to Jeong Sang-Bin, who slid it wide for Holse. His unpressured left-footed cross bent into the box and just over the head of a jumping Miller. Daniel Edelman was making the box-crashing run behind the Canadian defender and thumped a header past Pantemis to cut Portland’s lead to 3-1. 

With smoke billowing from the supporters’ section, Ortiz nearly provided an instant response. But his well-struck shot from outside the box fizzed wide of the left post. Technically, this was another far-post effort, so the Ecuadorian midfielder had the right idea.

Unfortunately, this game is about to become a ref show. Substitute Eric Izoita was yellow carded within two minutes of entering the game (for correctly denying a promising counter). However, MacNaughton was already on three fouls by this point, and he decided to try even harder to be booked. The first of these begging challenges occurred in the 64th minute, and it left Fory in need of treatment with a blood-stained jersey. As if that wasn’t bad enough, MacNaughton would drag Velde down at the top of the box during a fast-break. Referee Rubiel Vazquez could not find his yellow card. But that foul set up a free kick at the top of the box, and there was no question who was going to take it.

Velde stepped up to the dead ball in the 70th minute with a brace already in his back pocket. First, Lassiter rolled him the ball with a backheel in a similar method to Bassett’s contribution on Velde’s late free-kick equalizer when these two teams met in August (not two weeks ago, as commentator Christian Miles said during tonight’s broadcast). Velde rolled the ball into the back of the net for Portland’s second-ever hat trick and a 4-1 lead. HOWEVER…

That hat trick existed for approximately one second. Vazquez determined that there was a foul on Portland during the play. Specifically, he whistled a shirt pull from Hernandez that might have held an on-rushing Edelman back by a half-second. The shirt was grabbed, that fact cannot be disputed, but Edelman is absolutely looking for this call. Edelman and Wallem are the only players who wanted the whistle. No other St. Louis player makes a gesture to the referee. The goal gets ruled out, much to the frustration of Velde and his teammates. Considering the nonsense that St. Louis was able to get away with tonight, this call seems very unbalanced. But don’t worry! There’s still 20 minutes plus stoppage time remaining! You haven’t seen anything yet.

First, Miller would pick up a yellow in the 72nd minute after tackling Navarro. That’s going to be very important later. But the Timbers were still trying to extend their lead. Da Costa would find Alexander Aravena in transition in the 79th minute. The Chilean forward, fresh off a game-winner against Charlotte on the weekend, got the memo and decided to curl one towards the far post. Lundt was able to make a good diving save and the ball went out for a corner. That was the last “normal” big event during this game. Things are about to get really weird.

Velde got subbed off in the 83rd minute for Finn Surman, who was making his return following the troublesome MCL sprain he suffered prior to the loss in San Jose. The cameras caught an unhappy Velde going straight to the locker room after the substitution. That’s not normal. Vincent Janssen would pick up an 84th-minute yellow card for a pretty yellow-worthy tackle on Chris Durkin. Sure, fine, whatever. But then the nonsense dial was ratcheted up.

MacNaughton hit a pass behind Holse in the 88th minute. The Timbers were awarded a throw-in. That sounds perfectly normal. But now I have to pull out the timer. This ball goes out of bounds at 87:18. That’s the moment when the linesman signals for a Portland throw-in. Because Apple still is allergic to keeping their cameras on the field during a stoppage, various shots of Holse and Yoann Damet flash across the screen. At 87:33, a whistle is heard. The broadcast cuts to Vazquez brandishing a yellow card. It is unclear why this yellow card is being raised, and it’s unknown who is receiving this caution. Miller comes into the frame with Simon Becher (of all people) holding him back from talking to the referee. Ian Smith is the recipient of this caution card. But all I can do is look at the 15 seconds between signal and caution. So I can’t properly judge this yellow. Maybe it was deserved, but a “delaying the restart” yellow card in the 88th minute of a 3-1 game? Does that seem slightly suspicious to you?

The ball gets recycled back to Lundt, and Aravena misses a potentially massive interception seconds later that would have had him 1v1 with the goalkeeper. Maybe that sounds a bit harsh, but I told y’all that we’re in the weird zone. Every touch of the ball is going to matter from this point forward, because the Timbers are going to try their hardest to throw away this 3-1 lead.

St. Louis is able to counterattack off of the missed interception and the ball falls to Dante Polvara outside the box. His shot is caught by Pantemis. Consider this a warning. 7 minutes of stoppage time are awarded. In the first minute of stoppage time, Durkin played a diagonal to Sang-Bin on the left. The Korean forward was able to create some space to fire a cross into the box. His delivery curled towards goal and allegedly got a friendly touch from Rafael Navarro’s foot to beat Pantemis and cut St. Louis’ deficit to 3-2. I say “allegedly” because it looks like Sang-Bin’s delivery was already going to go into the net without any interference and it doesn’t look like Navarro actually got a touch. But a goal is a goal, and now the table was set for even more shenanigans.

Just like after their first concession, the Timbers would have a chance to respond. In the 3rd minute of stoppage time, Da Costa blew past MacNaughton and played a perfect square ball into the center of the box. Aravena was on hand to meet it, but his unpressured effort went wide of the right post. Brutal. But the final bit of nonsense was yet to come.

In the 6th minute of stoppage time, Waterman was clipped by Sang-Bin. The whistle promptly blew for a foul. The ball fell to Miller, who kicked it away. With 3 Raviolis surrounding the referee, in addition to 2 more pointing towards the defender, Vazquez hurried over and showed Miller a second yellow for a second offense of “delaying the restart.”

Less than a second elapses between the whistle and Miller’s kick. It looks like a normal pass, because I don’t believe that Miller heard the whistle. But what really grinds my gears about this decision is how Vazquez doesn’t even see it in real time. HIS BACK IS TURNED AND IT’S ONLY AFTER THE INSISTENCE OF SEVERAL CRYING RAVIOLIS THAT VAZQUEZ TURNS WITHOUT HESITATION AND AWARDS MILLER THE SECOND YELLOW. UPON FURTHER REVIEW, IT APPEARS THAT AN ENTIRE TEAM JUST CONVINCED A REFEREE TO SEND A PLAYER OFF WITHOUT THE REFEREE HAVING ANY KNOWLEDGE OF THE INCIDENT. AND YOU STILL QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ST. LOUIS IS A DESPICABLE CLUB?

St. Louis’ equalizing chance came in the 9th minute of stoppage time. A Waterman pass breakup fell to Becher, who couldn’t beat Pantemis at the near post. The final whistle blew right after. Despite the shenanigans, despite the short rest, and despite the odds not being in their favor, the Timbers were victorious in St. Louis. 

The Left Side

Three days after Portland’s right side dominated Charlotte, their left side won tonight's game.

How was this allowed to happen? Well, for starters, all three of Portland’s goals occurred in transition. St. Louis was caught with too many men forward, and the Timbers (specifically Velde and Da Costa) were able to take advantage of the high wingbacks and stretched rest defense. Marti Cifuentes spoke about this post-game, but with an eye on the Ravioli’s rest defense: “They [St. Louis] can change the way they build up, especially for the first 60 minutes. They were building with a structure that we call ‘three plus one,’ with a lot of rotations with players coming inside and dropping out.”

That “three plus one” nerfed the double-team possibilities for Velde. He often only had one defender to beat, so he would beat them. It also helped that the defender was MacNaughton, and he didn’t have Totland on his side of the pitch too. The same can be said for Da Costa when he roamed out wide. St. Louis did not believe in the strength of the Portland press, and they severely discounted their own abilities to break down the block. Their best chances came from crosses into the box instead of dynamic ball movement. That’s a Timbers victory by itself.

Portland’s transitions were successful because of the way their defensive block was set up. I’m going to save the majority of that analysis for the “coach rating” section. But I would like to point out that the Timbers did an excellent job of finding the balance between jumping and stepping. I rarely saw bad jumps or bad drops throughout this game. They were fully prepared for whatever St. Louis was going to throw at them. Dull first halves are a blessing at times, especially on the road. And scoring the first goal always helps too! But that first goal was only able to be scored because of how well they defended.

Domination/Duels

Speaking of defending, let’s check in on the duel numbers.

Once again, I question how many of these duels were actually uncalled fouls. The gap was created by aerial duel wins. That doesn’t surprise me considering how big St. Louis’ roster is.

Meanwhile, the Domination Metric tells the story of the game state. Portland jumped out to a 14-8 box tilt advantage in the first half. Like I said, the Raviolis weren’t getting into dangerous areas until after the Timbers took the lead. The second half box tilt score is further proof. St. Louis won the second-half box tilt battle 18-11, which is what you’d expect from a home team down multiple goals. Add those figures up and St. Louis gets the win 26-25. Keep in mind, they were down multiple goals for half of the total game time. Another Timbers win.

Player Ratings

James Pantemis: 8.2

I thought Pantemis distributed the ball really well tonight. Although his pass accuracy stood at 44% (12/27), all 15 of those incompletions were on long balls. He played a really nice pass while under pressure to Bassett in the 39th minute. Pantemis' distribution has gotten a lot better over the past month.

However, there are always things to improve. He saved 4 shots tonight, and all of them were saves that he should be making. I’ll add a couple extra points for the importance of that Toland save in the first minute of first-half stoppage time. But I think the blame for the second goal can be laid at his feet. I’m still noticing some struggles when it comes to commanding his own box. He should be catching that cross. It didn’t play a major role in the story of this game, but it’s another issue that keeps popping up. Either way, Pantemis had much more good than bad in tonight’s win, including a couple of defensive actions outside his own penalty area. 

Ronald Hernandez: 6.6

With Portland’s right side remaining more defensive, Hernandez didn’t get forward as much as he usually does. The most notable play from this game involving Hernandez was Totland dunking on him for the header in first-half stoppage time. However, he just completed his 6th full 90 in a row.

Joel Waterman: 6.8

I think Waterman had a pretty bog-standard center back performance. Good passing, good defending, but nothing too spectacular. He’s now in line to start on Sunday due to Miller’s red card. After joining on Deadline Day, Waterman has now made 7 consecutive starts and played the full 90 in all of them. Pretty cool!

Kamal Miller: APPEAL

The Timbers simply have to appeal Miller’s red card. The dubious circumstances surrounding it warrant an appeal at minimum. I don’t think they’ll win it, but they definitely have to try.

That appeal is important because Miller was awesome tonight. The stat sheet won’t show it, but he was incredibly front-footed while doing a great job positionally. In addition, he was getting hacked (and gouged) by Raviolis all night. However, although I disagree with how the second yellow was awarded, I think that Miller should have done better while already on a booking. Both of Portland’s last two red cards have been second yellows for “delaying the restart” in a league where plenty of teams waste time with no repercussions (Janssen at LAFC). I find that fact incredibly infuriating. 

Jimer Fory: 8

Speaking of getting hacked and gouged, Fory literally left the pitch with bloodstains on his jersey. He fully earned the assist on Da Costa’s goal and held his ground superbly. Most of St. Louis’ attacking thrusts came down Fory’s side of the field. I hope he isn’t too banged up for Sunday. The extra day of rest should be a blessing.

Diego Chara: 8

Per futi, the club captain finished with 9 high defensive actions. That’s the most on the Timbers, and the second-most among all players (Polvara had 10, but he also played the full game). With the Timbers prioritizing pressing over possession tonight, it was an easy choice for Cifuentes to turn to Chara at the base of the midfield. In addition, if we want to keep harping on the refereeing, Chara was tripped by Navarro in the 56th minute without any repercussions from the official. Velde got in Navarro’s face after the fact. The captain is supposed to protect his teammates, but sometimes he needs protecting too.

Joao Ortiz: 7

The flag went up and the play didn’t count, but Ortiz does deserve some flowers for an alleged goal-saving tackle on Downs in the 23rd minute. He couldn't repeat that action to track Edelman's run on St. Louis' first goal, but that speaks to a teamwide issue, not one that's Ortiz-specific.

The Ecuadorian midfielder only registered 13 touches, one of which was the shot from distance that just missed the far post. I like how Cifuentes chose to use him as the rotating 8. When the Timbers had the ball, he would push higher up. But when they didn’t have the ball, he’d form a pivot with Chara. Just his presence in the center of the pitch forced St. Louis to go wide with their ball progression. Not a performance of high stat-sheet quality, but definitely one that will show up on film.

Cole Bassett: 7.9

In his first start in a month, Bassett completed 16/16 passes and provided the assist on Velde’s first goal. That’s two assists in two straight games, for those keeping count at home. He acted as the pressing 10 when the Timbers didn’t have the ball tonight, and his sole duty was to take Durkin out of the game. Considering that Durkin was pretty underwhelming and mostly shows up in my notes as a corner taker, I think he did a good job.

There were questions about how Bassett would adapt to Cifuentes’ system. I think he’s answered them in these past two games. “I think Marti’s made the roles very clear for us as the three months have gone on,” he said post-game. “I think we’re starting to understand his system more and that way we can change our system in a few days.”

Portland’s setup tonight was different from what they trotted out against Charlotte. I think Cifuentes has found a workable way for the team to play on the road. And it paid off in their first road win since July. Bassett’s flexibility was a huge reason why. It also helps when the first goal is a carbon copy of a pattern that was emphasized in training. “I think a lot of the time we wanted our fullbacks low, so Jimer would be in the spot where I am. Kris would be wide, and I’d be the guy running through the gap. But I think we figured out throughout the first half that the more movement we had, the more confusing it was for them. So in that moment, I ended up in Jimer’s spot, Jimer was in Kris’, and Kris was in mine, and it caused some confusion, got Kris in a 1v1, and, you know, he’s been doing that all year for us.”

That’s not the full quote. I’ll check back on it later. Putting Bassett on the left seems like a recipe for success.

Ariel Lassiter: 7

Two whistles (one correct and one dubious) robbed Lassiter of a goal and an assist tonight. I wonder how that made him feel.

To be clear, I’m not picking on him. It’s just a spectacular reaction. Unfortunately for him, he was offside. But he has perfected the outside-in run and is now Portland’s most likely player to score from an endline cutback. That’s good! He wasn’t able to be a gigantic influence on tonight’s game due to the Timbers not having as much of the ball, but he gets an honorary goal and assist for those plays. He’s a surefire starter on Sunday against Houston; another one of his former clubs. And I think he might be hoisting the Supporters’ Player of the Year belt after the final whistle.

Kristoffer Velde: Veldinho

"You give him a 1v1, I think he scores many of those." -Cole Bassett.

The downside of being a DP is the constant expectation of production. Due to the outsized effect of a DP on the salary cap, near weekly goal contributions becomes a need for any MLS team. What would Miami look like without Messi? Maybe that’s a bad example. What would SKC look like without Andre Luiz? I think that’s more apt.

Velde, like the Wizards’ record signing, is expected to be the ultimate difference-maker in the final third. Some teams have been able to wise up to this and frustrate him constantly with double-teams. But when Velde is given some space to operate, he will destroy you.

I saw things from Velde tonight that I’ve been waiting to see for a while. Running in behind? Well, how else does he get into space to score his first goal? Defending on the front foot? He was second on the team behind Chara with 8 high defensive actions! And, to top it all off, he makes opposing fans livid.

Sometimes it’s because of his willingness to go down, a trait that has been slightly neutered over these past two games. But other fans hate him because he scores against their team and celebrates accordingly. Yes, you’ve just scored Portland’s 3rd goal to give them a nearly insurmountable 3-0 lead. Cup your hands at the wall of supporters who are without a doubt screaming vile things at you. Your job is to make their night miserable. Revel in it.

So when Velde got subbed off in the 83rd minute after getting robbed of a hat trick, of course he’d storm right down the tunnel. He wants to be on the pitch. And he definitely wanted another shot at completing the hat trick. However, I thought Cifuentes’ decision to sub him off was the correct one. I’m only worried about that slight tantrum based on the way it affects his teammates. But they’ve been with him for months at this point. Would they expect anything different? Seriously? “Self-confidence is not an issue for Kris,” Cifuentes said post-game. I think that might be underselling it a bit.

Meanwhile, Velde’s 7-game goal contribution drought has been delightfully bookended by braces against St. Louis; a team that I hate. I think Velde and I have that in common now. He’s faced the Raviolis twice, gotten hacked to bits in both meetings, and threw it back in their faces with 4 goals. That second goal, mind you, goes in the Goal of the Season nominees. He created just enough space for himself to bend it around Lundt. And his hat-trick belongs on the pile of near-Timber hat-tricks, right next to Sebastian Blanco’s 2022 effort in Minnesota. But since Velde is a DP, those droughts have to be few and far between. Let’s see what he has in store for Houston.

David Da Costa: The Starting Striker

Let’s run some numbers really quickly. Portuguese Dave has started twice as a false 9. In those games, he has 2g/3a. Has Portland’s striker problem been solved?

I think it has. Da Costa dazzled as a false 9 yet again, and was due another assist if Aravena was able to put his stoppage-time shot on target. His constant movement was another reason Velde had so much space to operate in. I’m not going to lay any blame at his feet for missing the fast-break opportunity that Velde quickly rectified at the start of the second half. Pretty sure that was good goalkeeping. Peak Catalonian-style soccer uses a false 9 instead of a traditional striker, after all. With Portland’s excellent off-ball movement creating trouble for the Raviolis, Da Costa should see another game at striker before the season ends. Could he do it against a Houston low block?

Eric Izoita: Tone-Setter, Yet Again

For the second straight game, Izoita picked up the first yellow card. This tackle, which stopped a promising counterattack, was definitely worth a booking. I think the stat sheet is lying to me because it only credits Izoita with 5 defensive actions: 2 clearances and 3 ball recoveries. 

Maybe the stat sheet is right after all, because all 5 of those actions (and none extra) are in my notes. It seemed like Izoita was everywhere defensively after getting subbed on at the hour mark. The game wasn’t crying out for any further offensive creativity beyond getting the ball to runners in space on the counter, so an underwhelming attacking performance isn’t the worst thing in the world. I’m happy another facet of his game got to shine.

Alexander Aravena: 7.5

In the “recap” section, I detailed two Aravena errors. Those do not have any effect on this rating, because I could see the confidence shine through. Would you like proof? How about this turn that sets up the free kick that should’ve gotten Velde a hat trick?

This is why I’ve been impressed with him. He understands space really well, but the final execution is where he’s fallen short. Yes, I’m going to point to that stoppage-time miss. If Aravena could consistently execute, I think he could’ve had double-digit goal involvements this year. I was also impressed with the left-footed shot in the 79th minute that forced Lundt into a good save. It seems like he might be the first attacker off the bench in the stretch run. And he’s confident enough to turn those minutes into goal contributions.

Ian Smith: 6.8

The one Smith play I’d like to highlight is him shielding the ball out of bounds in the 5th minute of stoppage time to win a goalkick. A smart play from Smudge to go along with 2 clearances and 1 ball recovery. Pretty solid Smith performance.

Jose Caicedo: 6.6

2 clearances and 1 off-target shot. I’d like to give him credit for trying to push the team upfield though. Not exactly a spell-binding performance but not a bad one either.

Vincent Janssen: Yellow Card

I like the idea of bringing Janssen in off the bench and letting him pick up a yellow. He’s had 4 substitute appearances this season, and 3 of them have bookings attached. Janssen cut out St. Louis’ final cross in the 8th minute of second-half stoppage time. Does Da Costa’s performance have any effect on whether or not the Dutchman starts against Houston on Sunday?

Finn Surman: Welcome Back

Surman made his first appearance since September 19th against Atlanta following a full recovery from the MCL sprain he suffered in training. In 15 minutes, he registered 2 clearances. My only other note is one of his passes getting blocked by Becher. I think he’ll be back in the starting lineup on Sunday regardless of whether or not Miller’s suspension is upheld. 

Coach Rating: 9

Make no mistake about it. Yoann Damet got fully outcoached by Cifuentes yesterday.

We have to start with the defensive structure. “We decided to make sure that we’re defending with two holding midfielders,” Cifuentes said post-game. “So when attacking, Joao was playing higher than Diego, but when defending, Joao was dropping a little bit more to help Diego in these pockets, to cover these pockets that they usually crowd with a lot of players or by playing directly with two strikers as they have done for some periods of the game.”

The Raviolis were unable to get players into those pockets, and the passing lanes weren’t open when they did. As a result, the usually methodical St. Louis was forced to lump balls long when those passing lanes weren’t available. Damet continued to be stubborn with his approach, but Cifuentes was able to adapt based on the game state. He dropped Portland’s line of confrontation deeper after the third goal, a lesson he probably learned in Kansas City. The Timbers were set up not to concede first, and they grew into the game enough to grab the first goal. They rode that momentum to score two more, and then they were able to adjust to protect their lead.

Cifuentes mentioned that yesterday’s win was the 200th Timbers win in MLS. That’s really cool. It was his first road win as Portland’s head coach too. Over the past couple games, the Timbers have finally been executing on the attacking end to the degree that the underlying numbers say that they should be. Progress has been shown throughout this past month, and now the results are matching.

Table Time

11th place is not optimal, but the Timbers are currently 3 points off of 7th place. They are one of only two Western Conference teams to win both of their games this week, with RSL being the other. Colorado rose above Seattle thanks to a chippy 2-2 draw in San Jose that featured 1 red card apiece. RSL won a road game in Austin to firmly eliminate the Broccolis from playoff contention. The Timbers will travel to Austin on Decision Day. The Galaxy had the night off and fell into 10th place. Minnesota (who are quietly engaging in a lot of comebacks this season) came back from 1-0 down to beat SKC 3-1 at home. In doing so, the Wizards officially became the first MLS team to ever concede 80 goals in a season. That number will definitely rise with two games remaining.

But the Sounders are now winless in their last 4 after losing 1-0 at home to Houston. I’ll have more to say about this game in the upcoming Houston preview, but Portland and Seattle are now separated by only three points. There’s still a lot to play for over these next two games.

Final Whistle

And Portland’s 3rd road win of the season could not have come at a better time. Their momentum from Aravena’s late winner against Charlotte traveled with them as they became the first team to win in St. Louis since April. And they didn’t squeak out a tightly contested affair either. They fully earned these three points.

You could point to St. Louis’ insistence at choosing to hang a banner when the Timbers came to town, something that the Sounders learned was a bad idea four years ago. Maybe it’s the Open Cup fatigue that the Raviolis might be feeling, as their 21-game unbeaten run (across all competitions) has now flipped into a 3-game losing streak. Managing these ebbs and flows is something that every MLS club does. St. Louis is still new. They’re still learning. Sometimes those lessons come at inopportune times. It happens.

But the Timbers spent the majority of the fall learning lessons of their own. Now they’ve won consecutive games for the first time since Jack Cassidy was leading the team against RSL and Seattle. Prior to tonight, those were the only consecutive wins the Timbers have had all year. Are the Timbers getting hot at the right time? Is their final playoff push going to end in another postseason berth as more and more things start to click?

They’re still at the mercy of the teams above them. It’s entirely possible that Portland can win out and still miss the playoffs. It’s a weird league. Things like that can happen. But, at the very least, these wins can provide some sort of optimism for the sprint season. Two completely different teams, one at home and one on the road, presented opposite challenges to the Timbers. They were able to pass both tests, but not completely. After all, the work never finishes. A humongous game against Houston is coming up on Sunday. If they manage to author their first 9-point week since 2023, they’ll be in a really good position for Decision Day. If Saturday’s game was a resurrection, tonight’s game was actual confirmation that this team is alive and kicking. It also helps when there’s a party to spoil. The climb continues.