Thrilla in Tukwila: Tenth Times the Charm, Right?

Starfire Stadium has a certain magic to it. With nearly every fan sitting right on top of the pitch, the atmosphere can best be described as Chaotic Good. In the nineteen years that the Seattle Sounders have played their US Open Cup games there, they are 25-1-3. Their only loss was from the infamous Red Card Wedding, where the ghost of Clint Dempsey is rumored to still be banned.

The Seattle Sounders are on the precipice of cementing themselves as US Open Cup icons. If they can win their next two matches, they can join Bethlehem Steel FC and Maccabee Los Angeles by having FIVE Open Cup trophies in the case.

Let’s get ready for the Thrilla in Tukwila.

Can the Sounders beat LAFC?

The short answer? Probably not. The long answer? A definite maybe, but still, probably not. LAFC has had Seattle’s number since joining the league back in 2018. Since then, the Sounders’ record against LAFC has been 5-4-12 across all competitions.

In recent history, the Sounders have yet to beat the Black and Gold in the last nine matches—NINE MATCHES. So far this season, LAFC has outscored the Sounders 8-1, with six of those goals coming at home, where they outplayed and outclassed the Sounders.

Despite being in fantastic form and having one of the best points per game (last 12 games) after Inter Miami, the Sounders can’t seem to find a way to beat LAFC, let alone score a goal against them from open play.

However, LAFC is not coming to Seattle to play at Lumen Field tomorrow. Oh no, they are traveling to Tukwila to play at the magical and historical Starfire Stadium. In addition to playing in an impenetrable fortress akin to the citadel Le Mont-Saint-Michel in France, LAFC is fresh off the heartbreak of Sunday evening's Mickey Mouse Cup (Leagues Cup) final loss to the Columbus Crew.

If the Sounders can’t fix the mistakes they’ve been making in the last nine games and finally beat LAFC, then maybe the magic of Starfire will help bring them a result. I don’t expect the Sounders to go through to the final, but I’m also not throwing out the possibility that they could.

How do they do it?

Brian Schmetzer has stuck with his guns this season, and the starting XI hasn’t really changed since this second-half resurgence. And I don’t blame him. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? Well, against LAFC, his preferred starting XI has not gotten the job done:

• Jordan Morris disappears as LAFC sits back and doesn’t allow his runs to be as effective
• Paul Rothrock gets exposed, and his ceiling finally shows
• JP’s age starts to show
• Half the defense gets decimated
• Albert Rusnak gets shutout

That is just some of what goes wrong when we play them. Steve Cherundolo and LAFC have us figured out, while no one else in the league doesn’t.

It’s evident that Schmetz’s 4231 and 442 are incredibly ineffective against LAFC’s low block 343. Coming off the back of a long Leagues Cup campaign, a few minor injuries, and a short turnaround, I expect LAFC to run out a 433 tomorrow night.

The best way to counter that is with our own three-at-the-back. We should lineup with something like this:

Playing a 343 to counter LAFC’s 433 will give us plenty of defensive stability and provide more space for our attackers to move freely. The only thing we’d be giving up is the numbers and control in the midfield, but with this formation, we can quickly shift Alex or even Rusnak in the add-numbers.

Defense

Andy Thomas has cemented himself as an Open Cup legend this year. After getting done dirty in the Leagues Cup, he deserves the nod over Frei for this one. Alex and Reed fit this 343 system perfectly because it lets them move up and down the pitch without having the full defensive responsibilities when they eventually miss a tackle or mistime a run. Nouhou has been one of the best one-on-one defenders on this team for years, and playing as a left-sided center-back is arguably his best position. People will say Ragen should get the nod over JB, but Ragen is too damn slow. Yes, he can spray some passes and head the ball cause he’s a literal tree, but I trust Jon Bell for his pace and almost equally as good passing ability.

Midfield

I went with a two-person midfield because this formation makes sense. Rusnak has been arguably our most important player this season, and his creativity and ability to control the game's tempo are unmatched. He has been known to put in a defensive shift when needed, and having three defenders behind him allows him to move a bit freely. Atencio deserves a shout because since returning from the Olympics, his dribbling has looked sharper, his defensive awareness has improved, and he will fight for every ball. I’m not saying that JP or Obed don’t, but they both got done by LAFC three times this season, so it might be time to switch it up.

Attack

Others might say we should have Pepo as the 10 with Raul and Jordan as the duel strikers, but we’ve seen this not work repeatedly. Putting Jordan and Pepo on the wings allows them to overlap and interchange with one another and create problems for the opposing center backs. This is where Raul comes in. He will have the space to fire off a shot or get into a good scoring position. He can also play to his strengths as the poacher instead of trying to press as the lone player up top.

Who needs this more?

Both teams have good enough reasons to want it, but the Seattle Sounders are the team that needs it. The US Open Cup is realistically the only trophy the Sounders are in for. They are virtually out of the Supporters Shield race and crashed out of the Leagues Cup. Based on the whole year, there is little chance they’d make an MLS Cup run. LAFC are still in contention to do a domestic treble but can easily achieve a double if the Sounders get the result they need. The winner also gets hosting rights against Sporting KC, so the winner from this match will most likely win the whole thing.

The Sounders can achieve something great with a win against LAFC tomorrow night. Bringing home the first domestic trophy in five years would do wonders for the fans who are already, and rightfully, angry with the team's performances and price increases. Being the only active MLS team with FIVE US Open Cup wins and a CONCACAF Champions League trophy in the cabinet would make the team even more insufferable, and I’m here for it.