Vancouver Whitecaps-Portland Timbers Preview (4/8)

Last year, the Timbers won their first Cascadia Cup since 2017. Their defense of that trophy begins this Saturday (7:30 PM ((7:38 PM)), Apple TV) in Vancouver. Both of these teams entered the league in 2011, but their paths have been very different. 

The three Cascadian rivals (Portland, Vancouver, Seattle) all have an established pecking order. Seattle loves to think of themselves as the big brother, while Portland also believes they are the big brother. Vancouver has settled in as the middle child. Across the span of 2015-2021, a Cascadian team represented the Western Conference in MLS Cup. However, it was only Portland and Seattle who made it to the biggest MLS game of the year. Vancouver sat in the periphery, looking at their two neighbors and all the success that they had. Last year, all three Cascadian teams won trophies. Seattle won their fun little CONCACAF Champions League, Portland won Cascadia Cup, and Vancouver won the Canadian Championship. Because of CCL qualifying rules, Vancouver got a berth in CCL for this current season. Now, they must play Portland at the end of a long week. It started with a 5-0 rout of Montreal last Saturday. On Wednesday night, however, they lost 3-0 to LAFC in CCL while playing all of their key contributors. Portland’s record against Vancouver is 16-8-9, with a record of 8-2-6 in Vancouver. 

Thanks for reading Cascadia FC's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Coming off their midweek defeat in CCL play, the Whitecaps are looking to bookend this long week with another win. There are two question marks regarding player availability. First is DP striker Sergio Cordova, who is dealing with a hamstring injury and hasn’t played since March 18. The second is midfielder Alessandro Schopf, who has missed their past three matches with a hamstring injury. Cordova is not expected to play on Saturday, while Schopf is a true question mark. Either way, Vancouver is good. Don’t let their 1-3-2 record fool you. They will set up in a 4-3-2-1 formation, commonly referred to as the Christmas Tree. Yohei Takaoka will start between the sticks. They have a settled partnership at center back, with Ranko Veselinovic and Tristan Blackmon becoming coach Vanni Sartini’s preferred choices. Right back Javain Brown has been very dangerous getting forward this year. At left back, they have two options between Ryan Raposo and Luis Martins, but I expect Raposo to get the start. Two of their midfield three are Sharpied-on starters. Julian Gressel has been very productive from the center of the pitch after being used primarily as a winger/right back in Atlanta. Andres Cubas is their six, protecting the backline. Russell Teibert or youngster Ali Ahmed will be the third midfield starter. Their front three is where things get interesting. Ryan Gauld is their most dangerous attacking midfielder, and he should get the start this week. There are three quality options for his attacking partner in that second line. Pedro Vite, Deiber Caicedo, and Cristian Dajome are all starting-quality. However, given Caicedo didn’t see the pitch against LAFC, I’m going to pencil him in as the starter. Don’t be surprised if I’m wrong though. The Whitecaps also have a 2-deep at the striker position. Brian White was their starter at the beginning of the season, but young star Simon Becher has been in the form of his life, scoring 3 times in 2 MLS matches. Becher came off the bench against LAFC, and I would imagine he would get the start on Saturday. But that would come at the cost of leaving out Brian White. There is also a possibility that Vancouver would line up in a 4-3-1-2 with both Becher and White getting the start. That was what their formation turned into during their rout of Montreal. However, Sartini is stubborn, and he used the 4-3-2-1 against LAFC. Bottom line, no matter who starts, there is a lot of attacking quality in this Vancouver team. 

Portland has been getting healthier, but it seems like the injury list has stayed at the same length. This week’s newest casualty is Eryk Williamson, who has been ruled out with knee pain. He is the only new addition to the injury list this week, joining Felipe Mora, Sebastian Blanco, Yimmi Chara, Cristhian Paredes, Marvin Loria, and David Bingham. Three players have come off that list: Evander, Dairon Asprilla, and David Ayala. Evander is set to get his first playing time since March 11. Asprilla is looking at a minutes increase following his season debut last week in Dallas. Ayala came on as a sub in the T2 match last weekend, and is ready to make his first team debut this week. As to how the Timbers will line up, my mind goes to Giovanni Savarese’s trusted 4-2-3-1. Aljaz Ivacic has put all rumors of unhappiness behind him, as he stated in Thursday’s press conference. He is Portland’s starting keeper for the rest of the season. Zac McGraw and Dario Zuparic have started every 2023 match together, and that looks to continue. Claudio Bravo will start at left back following his great performance against Dallas. Right back is a question mark, only due to Juan David Mosquera’s versatility. He could start at right back or right wing, and given Asprilla’s continued recovery from surgery I think he starts on the wing again this week. That will give Eric Miller his second consecutive start at right back. Diego Chara will once again wear the captain’s armband and start in the midfield. His partner is a question mark. Ayala could be healthy enough to start, but Evander is no stranger to playing deeper in the midfield. I think the most logical option is starting Ayala and giving Evander the start at the ten. I don’t expect either of those two to go the full 90. Santiago Moreno will start at the left wing position with Mosquera on the right. Asprilla will be available off the bench due to his recovery plan. That leaves the striker position. Savarese said that Franck Boli is available for 30-45 minutes, so that rules out a start for the Timbers’ newest signing. Nathan Fogaca or Jaroslaw Niezgoda will be battling for the start at striker, with Tega Ikoba still not at starting fitness quite yet. Savarese has kept Niezgoda on the bench for the past two matches, favoring Fogaca. I think that trend continues this week, with Nathan earning his fifth consecutive Timbers start. Besides Asprilla and Boli, Ikoba and Diego Gutierrez will be the other bench players to keep an eye on. It would also not surprise me at all to see Ikoba get playing time over Niezgoda this week. The biggest weakness with this approach is Ayala not being ready to go the full 90, as there is no other midfield depth behind him and Diego Chara. This could necessitate a formation change in the second half. 

The keys to winning in Vancouver all rely on energy. The Whitecaps will be playing their third match in seven days, so using the advantage of rest will be crucial. During the Dallas match, the Timbers didn’t actively press, but used their field position to close down short passing lanes in Dallas’ defending third and the middle third. This week looks like a perfect time to increase the intensity of that press and take advantage of a tired Vancouver team. Fogaca starting will be crucial to that, as well as Mosquera playing farther up the pitch. Evander’s return means a ton of pressure will be on him to be creative. He has shown flashes of it, but his missed time hurt his ability to gain more chemistry with his teammates. Therefore, Santiago Moreno and Mosquera will have another big creative load on their shoulders. Creating quality chances in possession is still not this team’s strong point, so using the speed of Fogaca, Moreno, and Mosquera on counter-attacks will be key as well. Claudio Bravo is also another attacking outlet from the left side. Vancouver will create a lot of chances, so the defensive structure of Portland needs to be solid. Defending set-pieces will also be a massive part of securing a result in BC Place. 

This match is going to be counted towards the Cascadia Cup, and it is the only trip to BC Place the Timbers have this season. Their last loss in Vancouver occurred in 2019. They have won both of their previous matches in Vancouver, however. In terms of league table position, the Whitecaps (1-3-2, 6 points) sit in 9th, with the Timbers (1-2-3, 5 points) are just below them in 10th. Portland needs a victory this week, not just for the league, but to keep the Cascadia Cup in the Rose City in consecutive years for the first time in the MLS era.

Thanks for reading Cascadia FC's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.