2024 Offseason To-Do List: Part Three

The MLS offseason is weird. Things are always happening and yet nothing is going on. At least that’s how it is in Portland. Well, that inactivity ended this week! The Timbers made a free agent signing! I’ll get into that later, but it’s not the main point of today’s article. The Timbers’ busy offseason doesn’t just apply to incoming players. Given the way that Ned Grabavoy and Phil Neville talked about the team during their 2024 exit interviews, the fanbase was prepared to deal with departing players. So far, the only departures have been the declined options for Marvin Loria, Tega Ikoba, and Mason Toye. Time to dig into some rumors.

The Rumor Mill: Potential Departures Edition

Santiago Moreno

Earlier this month, multiple reports indicated that Liga MX club Atlas sent an offer to the Timbers for Moreno. The initial move would be a loan, with a $4 million buy option once the loan is completed. This offer is silly. Moreno is one of the most sellable assets at the club, and any offer made for him should be a permanent transfer. The Colombian’s representation (and, most importantly, the player himself) were very keen on the move. If Atlas decided to offer $4M up front, this would’ve been a different story and I believe that Moreno would have already been sold. But it was a loan offer, and the Colombian is staying put for now. I still view Moreno as the player that the Timbers have to sell this winter. However, since the Atlas offer was rejected, there have been crickets on the Moreno front.

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Felipe Mora

On December 10th, various reports out of Chile insinuated that first-division club Universidad de Chile and Mora reached an agreement on a contract. However, the Timbers set his pricetag at $3 million, and UdC declined to pursue the deal. I’m not a fan of that price (something in the range of $900K-2M seems right for a player with one year left on his contract and entering his age-31 season) and it raised some questions about how the Timbers have approached the offseason.

Departures were expected based on Grabavoy and Neville’s comments, but the only ones that have materialized have only come from expiring contracts. My main concern is that the Timbers are overvaluing the players on the team. Last season, a $2.2 million bid for Cristhian Paredes from an unnamed Brazilian club arrived during the summer window. The Timbers declined the offer despite interest from the player because their midfield was absolutely decimated by injury. At the time, it seemed like the right move (putting the club first is always the most important thing) but it looks a lot different in hindsight. Of course, judging any business in hindsight allows for a lot of revisionist history. That amount would have resulted in Portland’s record sale (with a disclosed fee, that’s important).

The rejected bid for Paredes doesn’t fall into the “overvaluing” column. As Grabavoy pointed out in the 2023 end-of-summer press conference, it was a good deal for the club and the player. Portland’s bare-bones depth at the position forced them to turn down the instant cash as the club tried to steady the ship ahead of a playoff push. However, the Mora counter-offer reeks of overvaluation. The Timbers have to learn how to bite the bullet and recognize when it’s time to move players on for reasonable fees. More on this later.

Jonathan Rodriguez

Penarol, his boyhood club, has shown interest in bringing Rodriguez back to Uruguay. The Timbers, simply put, will not consider any bids for him. As they should. His contract expires at the end of 2026 with a club option in 2027. It’s way too early to consider selling a player that led the team in goals last season. Especially while carrying the workload of two consecutive seasons.

Evander

No updates on the Evander front other than some sparse rumors linking him to Brazilian clubs. However, one MLS transfer is especially relevant in regards to the Evander saga. Earlier this month, Orlando’s Facundo Torres was sold to Palmeiras in a deal that is worth up to $14 million.

First of all, Torres has been vastly overrated by MLS pundits over the past couple years. His advanced metrics paint him as an average right winger. However, because he is a Uruguay international and a former wonderkid, Orlando was able to accept a very generous offer from Brazil. When the season ended, I set Evander’s floor at $15M. After the Torres transfer, that floor has been raised to at least $20M.

I doubt that any club will offer that much for him given the lack of leverage that the Timbers have. I still expect him to be on the roster when the Timbers host the Vancouver Whitecaps on February 23rd to open the 2025 season.

GAM Watch

For the first time, MLS published each team’s available GAM. Portland’s total of $2,767,783 is 4th-lowest in the league. That number will increase by $2.93M when 2025 begins. Either way, the Timbers are cash-strapped in terms of allocation money. How did they get here?

Where’s the Money Gone?

Before we get to how the Timbers have failed to boost their GAM stockade, we have to talk about how they spend their allocation money. Besides a couple of trades (Kamal Miller was the only player acquired for GAM last season) the Timbers primarily use their GAM to supplement the salary cap. Let’s take a look at the GAM-able salaries on Portland’s books.

These are the players whose cap hits can be bought down. Senior Minimum Salary players (Eric Miller and Trey Muse) are unaffected. So are Evander and Jonathan Rodriguez; the club’s two DPs. Some of the players listed (Santiago Moreno, David Ayala, and Antony) occupy U22 Initiative slots. Those three carry a solidified cap hit of $200K each ($600K total). Every other player is eligible to be bought down with GAM. Transfer fees for non-DPs and non-U22s are also factored into a player's cap hit. Only Finn Surman has an outstanding amortized transfer fee for salary cap purposes (Mosquera’s initial outlay wasn’t amortized because he carried a U22 tag when he arrived and Bravo’s initial fee of $1.42M has already been amortized over the past four years).

The 2024 salary cap was set at $5,470,000. I added together the cap hits of both DPs and 3 U22s to get a baseline of unchangeable cap hits (that number is $1,967,500). Then I started adding the raw cap hits of each player in order until I surpassed the cap. It didn’t take long. The Timbers needed to use their incoming GAM to keep their roster compliant to MLS rules. Most teams do this as well. Another GAM expense in 2024 was buying Juan Mosquera out of a U22 slot so the roster could be compliant early in the season. Felipe Mora took a DP slot to save cap space, but was moved from that spot when the Timbers adapted the new 2/4/2 roster model in the summer. This could be all cool and good if Portland was able to acquire more GAM! In the past, they’ve traded international slots and draft picks. But they’re missing out on the most profitable way to get more GAM.

When a MLS player is sold to a foreign league, up to $3 million of the incoming fee can be converted to GAM. Simply put: the Timbers do not sell players and, as a result, have the 4th-lowest amount of GAM in the league. Solution: sell more players, get more GAM. The potential Mora departure could have brought in a windfall of actual cash and allocation money. Same with a potential Moreno departure. Heck, any player sold by the Timbers would result in more GAM! Only three teams have less allocation money than the Timbers.

3rd place goes to Nashville, who have 3 true DPs but have several underperforming players on large contracts. The Galaxy occupy second place, and they just won MLS Cup! Houston’s lowest available GAM is complicated by a very MLS trade. In 2009, they traded for a PERMANENT international roster slot from the New York Red Bulls. The Dynamo have had to send GAM to Jersey every year since. However, there isn’t a correlation between GAM stockades and building a competitive roster. But having more allocation money available allows for more roster flexibility.

Currently, the Timbers have 1 U22 slot open. They will be receiving their yearly allocation bonus in addition to $2M GAM from the new roster model. That’s a total of $7,697,783. Even though it’s a large windfall, every other MLS team is also getting a GAM boost. More player departures will boost the GAM coffers. But how will the Timbers use the GAM that they already have?

The Lone Incoming Rumor

Kevin Kelsy

The Timbers already used some of their GAM to enter negotiations with Shaktar Donetsk striker Kevin Kelsy. Does that sound odd? Yeah, it probably does. Let me explain further.

Discovery Rights are a very interesting MLS roster mechanism that is both outdated and rather stupid. Teams can place foreign players who haven’t signed a MLS contract on a Discovery List for the first right to negotiate with them. Famously, SKC had Cristiano Ronaldo on their Discovery List, so if the Portuguese megastar wanted to come to MLS (he’d be arrested on the spot) they’d be able to enter negotiations with him before any other club. However, because SKC probably wouldn’t pique his interest (for a laundry list of reasons), they could still get something if he signed with another team. That’s because the other team would have to trade GAM to SKC for Ronaldo’s Discovery Rights.

The Timbers did this in 2017. Seattle had the Discovery Rights of one Sebastian Blanco, and Portland sent them $75K GAM in order to sign him. Last season, Kelsy was loaned to FC Cincinnati with a purchase option at the end of the loan. The Garys tried to negotiate the buy option, but failed to do so and declined to sign the Venezuelan striker. He returned to Shaktar with Cincy continuing to hold his rights. The Timbers wanted to sign him, so they sent Cincy an undisclosed amount of GAM (my guess is between $50K-100K) in order to enter negotiations with him.

Now that we’re caught up, we can discuss the actual player rather than the process utilized to begin negotiating with him.

6’4”. 20 years old. A U22 Initiative player. If it wasn’t obvious already, I am already over the moon about a potential Kelsy acquisition. He fits the exact profile of striker that the Timbers desperately need. In addition to that, there would be no extraneous cap hit for Kelsy because of his U22 status. That includes no potential limit on acquisition costs.

However, it is worth noting how Cincinnati’s negotiations with Shaktar went. The buy option was $7M, which Cincy tried to negotiate down. When Shaktar stood firm on the price, the Garys backed out and opted to spend a MLS-record $16.2 million on Cercle Brugge striker Kevin Denkey. If you might recall, Portland actually saved money by signing Jonathan Rodriguez instead of German Berterame last spring. Berterame’s release clause was $15M, which had to be paid in full up front (you hear that, Valencia?). Portland’s total outlay for Rodriguez (transfer fee & salary) cost about half of that number. There is money left over in addition to any other funds available from ownership to acquire Kelsy at the $7M valuation. However, negotiations could still be tricky with the player in addition to Shaktar. Tom Bogert of GIVEMESPORT first reported Portland’s interest in Kelsy on December 13th. No further news on that front has surfaced since then.

A Signing!

Ariel Lassiter

The Costa Rican is an effective squad player who can play any position on the left side. He spent 2024 with Montreal before getting traded to Chicago in August. Prior to the trade, he had 3g/6a while playing as a wingback or a 10. That was his second-most successful season behind his 2022 campaign with Miami under head coach Phil Neville. Lassiter played in 34 games and tallied 6g/4a.

I’m a fan of this signing purely for the versatility aspect. Lassiter can play anywhere on the left side and has a strong left foot. Kamal Miller, Claudio Bravo, and David Ayala are the only field players who are left-footed. He could deputize for Bravo at left-back or play left wing-back depending on different tactical shifts. But he is an attacker at heart, so he could fill in on the wings depending on player availability. I think this is a good piece of business from Ned Grabavoy and a pretty good replacement for Marvin Loria. Very funny that it ended up being another Costa Rican.

I still wish Loria’s 2024 wasn’t wiped out by injury so he could’ve had a chance to compete for a new contract. But recent reports have linked him to Costa Rican return with Saprissa. It’s a good spot for him. Speaking of recent departures, Dairon Asprilla recently won the Colombian league with Atletico Nacional. He directly contributed to this triumph by scoring in the first leg of the final. Even though it’s December, October Dairon is still alive. Very happy for him.

Potential Free Agents to Sign

Several potential targets have already left the open market. Nick Lima returned to San Jose early in the window. However, there are two former free agents that deserve a little bit of discussion.

Former Union CB Jack Elliott signed with the Chicago Fire. However, the Timbers did offer him a contract before he chose Chicago. I’m torn about this because he would be an upgrade to the backline, but a significant amount of cap space is already dedicated to center backs. Given that there have been no rumors of any CB departures, it would’ve forced the Timbers to jettison one. I like the thought process, but not at the cost of limiting Portland’s cap space.

Jeremy Ebobisse left San Jose and signed with LAFC. The rich keep getting richer, I guess. Part of me was on board with a potential Ebobisse reunion, but I also recognized how futile any attempts to convince him to come back to Portland would be. Given his history with the front office, I’m not shocked at all that signing him was never in the cards. However, it is disappointing to see a conference rival strengthen their roster by signing him. He could legitimately start over Giroud, and I expect him to earn that starting job over the course of the season.

Jaylin Lindsey

After earning Charlotte’s starting right back job in 2022 and 2023, Lindsey fell out of favor under new head coach Dean Smith. He’s only 24 years old and can also play left back. However, due to Eric Miller’s presence, I doubt that the Timbers would be interested in the young American. It wouldn’t hurt to inquire about him though. Even though I think Lindsey is worth a look, the Timbers might have already addressed their fullback need.

The Draft

After trading their second-round pick to Montreal as part of the package for Mason Toye, Portland selected two players in the 2025 MLS SuperDraft. Their first round selection is University of Denver left-back Ian Smith. The 22-year-old tallied 6 goals and 21 assists in 61 appearances (all starts), including 10 assists in 2024. In addition to his counting stats, he captained the team during 2023 and 2024. I like this selection a lot. He can instantly compete for minutes at the team’s shallowest position.

However, the third-round selection of Providence College goalkeeper Lukas Burns is a bit of an eyebrow-raiser. Between the first team and T2, the Timbers have six goalkeepers on the roster. Four of those are first-teamers (Crepeau, Pantemis, Muse, and Hunter Sulte). Carver Miller and Ryan Bilichuk traded starts with T2 last year. I would have loved to use this pick on a field player (ideally midfield or attack). Oh well. It is what it is.

Grabavoy has overseen two drafts as the head of the technical staff with a total of six players selected (not counting 2025). Only two of those players made first-team appearances in competitive matches (Noel Caliskan and Tyler Clegg). At the very least, I hope that Smith can become a solid squad player. Caliskan became a solid squad player after the Timbers cut him last offseason and RSL picked him up. Good teams are able to use the draft and find players who can raise their collective floor.

Final Whistle

The Lassiter signing should raise Portland’s floor. It was a definite need this offseason to find another depth piece in the attack. Bonus points for versatility. But in order to return to true contention, the Timbers have to find a star central midfielder. A player of that caliber could raise the team’s ceiling. None of the MLS free agents fit that profile. There are foreign players who do.

January is about to start, and the “busy” offseason has been quieter than a Sounders home game. Caleb Porter’s New England Revolution (who come to Providence Park in 2025) have been extremely busy this winter. Other teams like San Jose have begun to reshape their roster in the image of their new head coach. But the Timbers have their head coach and an entrenched front office. Maybe January will bring an explosion of activity. But, for now, their critical offseason has been a disappointment. Although Evander’s status remains up in the air for 2025, it isn’t an excuse to neglect the other weaknesses that this team has. That includes player departures. Alarm bells should already be going off at the lack of outgoing players. This is Grabavoy’s 4th offseason in charge of the team. His biggest sale to this date has been Bill Tuiloma, and the Timbers received allocation money in return. It’s time for the front office to put their money where their mouth is and begin to reshape the team in a manner that fits the head coach.

It has been a very busy December, and this article has been delayed by several weeks as a result. If there’s anything that you would have liked to see, leave a comment below for a future mailbag. Well, anything except the schedule. As long as the Timbers get 17 road games and 17 home games I’m happy. Thanks for your support as always. Onwards.

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