2025 Portland Timbers Secondary Transfer Window Review

The Portland Timbers entered the summer transfer window with one goal in mind: add the necessary reinforcements to power the team into the playoffs. Congratulations to the Portland Timbers, who have made the playoffs! It’s time to go over Portland’s summer business, and take a look into the near future.

Departures

Miguel Araujo (Waived)

An inconsistent year-and-a-half in Portland came to an end in May when Araujo was waived. Technically, he didn’t make the team in 2025 after visa issues left him ineligible to be registered. Ironically, the Timbers have been utilizing a back three this year, and that was much more suited to Araujo’s skillset than the back four Portland used during the majority of his tenure. 

Peruvian side Sporting Cristal signed Araujo in early July, and he instantly made a big impact. He scored twice in his first three games, and contributed to 4 straight clean sheets in his first four matches. He’s also back in the national team picture (although he was still getting call-ups this year as a Timber). This is a move that has clearly worked out for both parties.

Grade: A-, could’ve been higher if the Timbers received a fee (would’ve been pure profit)

Claudio Bravo (sold to Argentinos Juniors [ARG1] for $987K)

Bravo quickly lost his starting spot to Jimer Fory at the start of this season. I’ve always thought of him as a player who was starting-quality, so it became clear that a summer exit might be on the cards. Argentinos Juniors offered a reasonable fee ($987K) and the Timbers accepted.

However, Bravo hasn’t been a starter since arriving at his new club. In fact, he’s only made two appearances. The first was as a substitute in the cup against Aldosivi on July 31st. It took two months for him to see the field again, but he did get the start against boyhood club Banfield on September 21st. 

Technically, the Timbers didn’t get their money back on the sale after initially acquiring Bravo for approximately $1.58M in 2021. But this was a move that opened some salary cap space and allowed a good servant to the club to move on to a new challenge. That challenge hasn’t gone according to plan early on, but there’s plenty of time for Bravo to work his way into a starting role.

Grade: B+ (fee is good, not great)

Santiago Moreno (sold to Fluminense [BRA1] for $6M)

Y’all were definitely waiting for this one.

Before I begin, I’d invite y’all to check out a post-mortem I wrote about Moreno’s tenure in Portland. Specifically, this paragraph.

No one likes an “I told you so.” Particularly if you’re on the receiving end of one. Moreno, unfortunately, has an entire city repeating that phrase in his direction.

In 5 appearances for his new club, Moreno has quickly earned the ire of the “unforgiving fanbase” I referenced in mid-August. Those five games (two starts) have yielded a total of 0g/0a. Well, in order to score a goal, you have to take a shot. Moreno hasn’t shot the ball yet for his new club. OK, but assists can be notoriously fickle. Some of the best creators in the world have low assist totals because of poor finishing. It should come as no surprise that this is still the strongest area of Moreno’s statistical profile in Brazil. On a per-90 basis, Moreno is in the 59th percentile for chances created. But, as I mentioned earlier, it’s the BEST PART of his profile. He’s averaging 3.5 fouls per 90, 1.17 yellow cards per 90, and is only completing 78.4% of his passes.

He desperately wanted to go to Brazil. This is how he’s been received.

As I said back in August, there was no need for anyone to be upset about this. The Timbers got $6M for a player that didn’t want to be here. The player got the move that he desperately desired. Now the only party that is upset is the one who abandoned his previous team to get the move that he wanted and is now finding out how green the grass really is. 

Grade: A++++++

Arrivals

Felipe Carballo (Loan from Gremio (BRA1))

Sigh. Is it proper to grade a deal for a player that got hurt within a month of arriving? Well, I’m looking at intent instead of outcome. In both of the games that Carballo played, he looked good! Was he an immediate plug-and-play upgrade for Portland’s midfield? Not exactly, but he could’ve been one with more time to build chemistry and familiarity with the structure.

This is still a good deal. Acquiring a DP on loan with the option to make it permanent is a move that is becoming more popular among MLS clubs. Unfortunately, this falls into the category of “What if?” Sigh.

Grade: A for the deal, N/A for on-field

Mati Rojas (Free transfer from River Plate (ARG1))

Another smart move from the team’s braintrust brought Rojas to town. As a free transfer with a contract that runs until the end of the season, the Paraguayan has an opportunity to earn a second contract in Portland.

His tenure has been bright. For a team that struggles with good set piece delivery and an unwillingness to take shots from distance, Rojas has been a direct upgrade in both areas. He’s the only one of the new players to score, with a Sebastian Blanco-esque looping header that found the back of Carlos Coronel’s goal against the Red Bulls. Unfortunately, he picked up a knock against Dallas and missed the Seattle game. The Timbers really needed him in the Seattle game. Prior to the acquisition of Rojas, Phil Neville talked about how the Timbers needed to add “2-3 starting-quality players” to the team. Rojas has definitely fit that bill.

Grade: A

Kristoffer Velde (Acquired for $5M from Olympiacos (GRE1))

Let’s run through the events that allowed the Timbers to sign Velde before the player himself is discussed. With a transfer like this, it’s important to understand exactly what had to occur for him to come to Portland.

Jonathan Rodriguez began the year with a knee injury. Apparently he played through it last year and it finally forced him to be sidelined once the season started. He worked his way back but still didn’t look like he was playing at full fitness. After playing 59 minutes in the Open Cup loss in San Jose, Rodriguez was sidelined for the rest of the year. That injury required surgery, so he was placed on the Season-Ending Injury list. This designation allowed the Timbers to replace him with a full DP. Velde was signed as that “replacement.”

I put “replacement” in quotes because the Norwegian winger is not a true on-field replacement for Portland’s injured Uruguayan forward. He’s actually replacing the DP spot that Rodriguez vacated. Through Velde’s first seven games, it’s pretty clear that the two players have different profiles. And the Timbers desperately needed a player in Velde’s mold. 

As a destructive winger who can create and score, Velde’s start in Portland has been very encouraging. The Timbers needed a DP winger who plays like a DP. Velde does that. It’s been blatantly clear during his first 7 games that he’s Portland’s best attacker. He’s taken 26 shots so far, but he hasn’t scored. But it’s easy to credit him with 3 of the 5 goals that the Timbers have scored since his arrival. That includes 2 direct assists (Rojas vs NYRB and Paredes vs Dallas) and an assist on Ramiro’s own goal in the Dallas game.

However, everybody’s been waiting for the dam to break. Those 26 shots are evenly split between inside and outside the box. He’s generated a total of 1.25 xG from those attempts, which works out to 0.05 xG/shot. I’d say that he’s very unlucky to not have a goal yet. His best chance was a 72nd minute attempt against the Red Bulls. That shot forced Carlos Coronel to make an unbelievable save. Several of his other good chances have been put just wide of the far post.

It’s still really early in his Timbers tenure, but the signs are promising. The underlying numbers back up the eye test as well.

Grade: B+ (needs to score a goal)

Overall Window Grade: A

On paper, this window is a second consecutive masterclass from Ned Grabavoy. The Timbers strengthened the team and made a profit. Carballo’s unfortunate injury prevents it from being an A+, but the intent behind the deal was excellent. Rojas is already a difference-maker, and the same applies to Velde. 

In 2024, the Timbers brought Finn Surman and Mason Toye to the club while saying goodbye to Nathan Fogaca, Dairon Asprilla, and Nathan Fogaca. Despite acquiring their best player in 2025, the Timbers didn’t do enough to ensure that the team would be competitive down the stretch. This past summer’s business was a direct counter to their window from a year ago. 

Portland added two DPs in one window for the first time since the winter of 2020 (Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Yimmi Chara). They also banked their record international sale with Moreno’s departure. It can only be considered a success. 

The Future

Expiring Contracts

Here are the players whose contracts expire at the end of the season: David Ayala, Diego Chara, Felipe Mora, Dario Zuparic, Maxime Crepeau, Cristhian Paredes, and Mati Rojas. The entirety of the supplemental roster (Gage Guerra, Eric Miller, Trey Muse, James Pantemis, Ian Smith, and Hunter Sulte) are also on expiring contracts. Some of these players have options (Ayala, Chara, Mora, Crepeau, Paredes, Guerra, Muse, Pantemis, and Smith).

Let’s begin with the players who do not have contract options for next season. I didn’t list Felipe Carballo because he’s on a loan contract. That loan can be extended, cease, or the player can be bought outright. I think Carballo’s injury prohibits the Timbers from buying him. However, reports out of Brazil have indicated that Gremio (Carballo’s parent club) is interested in extending the loan into next year. Those reports have various degrees of reliability, but if enough birds are singing the same song it’s reasonable to conclude that there might be some element of truth. That’s something to watch in the offseason.

The Fall Salary Release hasn’t been published by the MLSPA as of October 11th, but the spring version listed Dario Zuparic as Portland’s 4th-highest earner. The Croatian turns 34 next season, but has been a consistent performer in his 6 seasons with the club. However, any contract that the Timbers would offer is based on that past performance. I don’t know how likely it is that Zuparic will be back in Portland next year. I’d put the initial (speculative) odds at 70% “no.”

Rojas’ contract is a classic prove-it deal, and it’s hard to talk about it before the value of his current deal is published. Based on his performance, I’m leaning towards “yes.” But more information is needed before a definite answer can be reached. 

Eric Miller has been a good servant to the club and is on a very cheap contract. I think it would be fine to bring him back for another year on the same deal. Sawyer Jura is set to join the first team in 2026, and having Miller around for leadership and mentoring (in addition to a couple starts) is a positive for the team.

Hunter Sulte has been on loan at Indy Eleven for the past two years. 2024 was a good year, but 2025 has been disappointing. I don’t see any harm in bringing him back as a 24-year-old 3rd stringer on a Homegrown deal. 

(Potential) Free Agent List

Although the MLSPA hasn’t released the updated salary chart, the list of potential free agents is available. There are a lot of players who aren’t on this list that do have expiring contracts. Let’s run through those before I dig into the ones listed above. 

It’s safe to say that James Pantemis, Gage Guerra and Ian Smith have already had their contract options picked up. Diego Chara also falls into this group, but it’s also possible that he retires after this season ends. He turns 40 next April. That decision is entirely up to him, but it appears that his option has also been picked up. 

Cristhian Paredes is making $714K this season. Given that the front office brought in a DP midfielder on loan during the summer, I don’t think they’d be willing to give Paredes another year at that salary. However, Paredes turns 28 in May and should be entering his prime. The best outcome for the Timbers is bringing him back on a cheaper deal. I don’t know how likely that is.

Felipe Mora had the 3rd-highest salary on Portland’s Spring Salary Release. Given his current goal drought, it would be ridiculous for the Timbers to pick up his option. Chilean clubs are circling, and I’m wondering how low Mora would be willing to go in order to stay in Portland. This is the same player that agreed to take less money in 2022 while he was hurt for the betterment of the club. It’s another “one to watch” in the winter, and Ned Grabavoy’s comments during his August 21st press conference indicated that the club and Mora’s representatives have been in negotiations. 

Maxime Crepeau is in a difficult spot. He’s trying to earn the starting jobs at club and international level at the same time. Given his current salary of $648K and the much cheaper (and productive) Pantemis, I think it’s a good time to let Crepeau find a new club and take a starting job for himself. I’m rooting for him to start for Canada at next year’s World Cup, and I don’t think he’s going to be able to do that if he stays in Portland. 

Trey Muse has racked up a lot of bench appearances, and I think his future in Portland is contingent on the Sulte decision.

The Winter Dominoes

There are two major problems to look out for in the winter. The decisions that revolve around these issues will dictate how Portland’s offseason will go.

The DP Situation

You cannot have four DPs on one team, so one of them will not return next year. There is a possibility of all four remaining on the roster with one of them moving to a TAM deal. Da Costa and Rodriguez will have to be full DPs, and I’d expect Velde to be one as well given the transfer fee inflating his cap hit. Carballo seems like the odd man out due to the fact that he’s here on loan. The injury isn’t as big of a factor as the loan, in my opinion. 

However, Rodriguez’s agent said that there’s an exit clause in the Uruguayan’s contract. This clause can be activated if he fails to play in 50% of Portland’s games in 2025. Due to that injury, the threshold for the exit clause has been met. I think it’s far more likely that Rodriguez is the odd DP out instead of Carballo. 

But that doesn’t preclude the Timbers from deciding to enter the offseason with Da Costa and Velde as the team’s only DPs. Portland could switch back to the 2/4 model and open up another U22 slot. Or they could stick with the 3/3 and sign a different DP than Carballo or Rodriguez. However, that decision could also be influenced by how the Timbers deal with their two best players.

The Young Cornerstones

Finn Surman and David Ayala are in a weird spot. Both players have the most value-heavy contracts on the team. Both players are definitely due for a raise. The Timbers have to get each of these decisions right in the winter.

Finn Surman

Let’s begin with Surman because I think his situation is the easiest. Per MLS rules, he is ineligible for the U22 Initiative. Since he wasn’t signed as a U22 initially, he cannot be converted to one for his second contract because he isn’t a Homegrown player. The other factor here is a fairly obvious Truth Nuke: he will not be a Timber for much longer.

Only two MLS defenders have been bought by foreign clubs for a fee in excess of $10M. Alphonso Davies is one of them, and it was clear that he was a generational talent when he was sold to Bayern Munich in 2019. The other one is Caleb Wiley, who somehow fetched $11.7M from Chelsea in the summer of 2024. Both of these players are fullbacks. The most expensive center back sale in MLS history belongs to former Colorado Rapid Moise Bombito, who joined OGC Nice in the summer of 2024 for a fee of $8.1M. Bombito was 24 at the time of the sale. Finn Surman is 22, and he’ll still be 22 after the conclusion of next summer’s World Cup (a tournament he will be playing in). 

This will be Surman’s last winter in Portland. I have no doubts about that. He’s a player who is destined to go to Europe and potentially (absolutely should) break the MLS outgoing transfer record for a center back. This presents the Timbers with a difficult dilemma.

He makes $226K on his current contract, but could definitely command more during negotiations this winter. With foreign clubs sniffing around, I believe a contract extension could be in the works for next year. Once again, I doubt he’ll be here next winter unless the Timbers are in the midst of a challenge for the Supporters’ Shield. 

Balancing a potential sale and the good of the team is something that the Timbers have struggled with at times. The summer 2023 bid for Cristhian Paredes ($2.2M, by the way) put the Timbers in an unbelievable pickle. I don’t need to go into detail about the Qatari offer for Evander last year, but it does need to be mentioned. There’s also a possibility that the Timbers weren’t going to sell Moreno until he forced their hand by abandoning the team. With Surman, this is a very easy decision to make: prepare to sell next summer (post-World Cup) and have a replacement immediately ready to go. 

His eventual departure could be tough for contract negotiations this winter. Either way, a Surman extension isn’t completely necessary in the offseason. But it is something to watch out for.

David Ayala

David Ayala, on the other hand, is in a more precarious spot than Surman. Ayala is not eligible for free agency and he is also ineligible for another U22 deal. 

For a foreign player, U22 eligibility is tied to the length of their initial contract. As an example, Santiago Moreno’s first contract was set to expire in 2025. Even though Moreno signed an extension in the winter of 2024, his U22 eligibility was still valid until the end of this current season. Ayala is the same. His first contract (signed in 2022) expires at the end of this season as well. This was the last year that the Timbers could truly appreciate the value of Ayala’s U22 status. Not only is his contract expiring, his new cap hit could seriously affect their squad depth.

Technically, they could pick up his option and he’d play as a U22 next year. That’s definitely the most team-friendly approach to this situation. It’s also one that I see as “unlikely.” Over the past two years, Ayala has cemented himself as Portland’s best midfielder. Consistent production in consecutive seasons should firmly earn him a raise. His current deal is valued at $477K. Doubling his salary wouldn’t be out of the question. It also raises another possibility: does it make sense to give Portland’s (hypothetical) 3rd DP spot to him?

As a cap-saving move, yes. I can see Ayala being signed to a deal worth between $1-1.2M per year and taking up a DP slot to save allocation money (the Timbers currently don’t have any excess GAM and won’t receive any until the MLS New Year begins). I also think that it’s unlikely. 

The sweet spot is TAM; a value below DP but above the senior max. In 2026, the senior max will be $803K; a $60K jump from 2025’s value of $743K. That number is set to increase to $883K in 2027, which is the last year of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. With these increases in mind, and the continued emphasis on making Ayala’s new contract cap-friendly, a TAM-level deal seems like the best option for both parties. There is a possibility that Ayala’s new contract is less than $803K, but I find it very hard to believe that the player would be OK with that. His performances over the past couple of years have been monumental. He absolutely deserves this raise. 

A potential “next step” might be involved in these extension talks. Does Ayala see a future for himself in Europe or South America? There are rumors from Argentina about clubs who are seriously considering signing him on a free this winter. With all of this information in mind, here’s my prediction for how this situation will pan out.

Ayala’s option will be picked up. There’s no doubt about it. But that will be done to give the team control of the player for next year while extension talks continue. I do not expect him to play next year as a U22 player on his current deal. To be safe, my new contract prediction is two years at $875K per year with a club option in year three. That puts him under contract until the end of 2027 with an option for 2028. I’m not extremely confident in that prediction, but I think it’s something that the player and club would be happy with.

Final Whistle

It feels weird to write about the Summer Transfer Window with one game left in the regular season. But it’s really hard to disagree with the feeling that Portland completed two excellent transfer windows in 2025. 

The winter was defined by Evander, and some are still pining for the Brazilian maestro in the Rose City. However, he didn’t want to be a Timber, and Portland made a profit on his sale. The summer could’ve been defined by Santiago Moreno. He didn’t want to be a Timber, and Portland made a profit on his sale. The feeling coming out of both transfer windows was a feeling of strength. In both windows, the squad improved. I think it’s a pretty accurate sentiment.

The game of soccer isn’t played on paper. Carballo’s unfortunate injury (coupled with Rodriguez’s surgery) did weaken the squad. But those injuries are just what they are: unfortunate. No one can be blamed in the case of an injury (except Derrick Williams [maybe not Derrick Williams?] and Nigel de Jong [definitely this guy]). The Timbers had four starting-quality central midfielders before Carballo arrived, and they’ve been able to adapt to his absence. It’s such a weird signing because it seems like he was never here. That’s not true in regards to the locker room, but only one-and-a-half games is so brutal. 

Although this window gets a high grade from me, it’s pretty clear that these signings haven’t directly contributed to a late season climb up the Western Conference table. It appears that the canoe has been sitting in the middle of the lake while occasionally tipping over. Last weekend’s defeat in the baseball town (congratulations to the Seattle Mariners) seemed to take all the air out of Portland’s sails. They have one more opportunity to enter the playoffs on a high note. 

During this window, the front office went all-in. And I mean that in the literal sense. Portland has no more GAM left. They spent it all. This is the first year that all GAM carries over from season to season, and the Timbers boldly decided to spend all of it in 2025. I don’t think you can ask for much more from the front office. They literally put everything they could into this stretch run. For various reasons, they’ve only won a single game since the end of Leagues Cup. But they are in the playoffs, and anything can happen when the canoe hits the open ocean. Let’s see where the waves take them.