A Cosmic Joke

After tonight’s 3-2 loss to LAFC at BMO Stadium, the Portland Timbers have become the first MLS team to score at least 2 goals in 5 straight games without winning any of them.

Tonight started like many Timbers road matches in 2024 and years past. The visitors were not up for the fight and were unable to work their way through LAFC’s press while also leaving themselves woefully exposed at the back. The hosts almost grabbed the lead after Denis Bouanga got behind the Timbers’ backline and chipped Maxime Crepeau in the 25th minute. However, referee Ismail Elfath disallowed the goal after a VAR check revealed a Timothy Tillman handball in buildup. That was the first wake-up call for the visitors, who started to grow back into the match. Jonathan Rodriguez had a couple of chances that amounted to nothing, and then LAFC hit on the counter. Bouanga played a good low cross through the box just out of Crepeau’s reach. Kamal Miller turned it into his own net, and LAFC had a 1-0 lead 44 minutes in. But the hosts weren’t done yet. In the last minute of first-half stoppage time, Cristian Olivera carried the ball to the edge of the box, passed it back to Timothy Tillman, and the American midfielder fired a grass-cutter that bounced in off the post. 2-0 at halftime.

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The second half began like a lot of 2024 Timbers matches. The team was pushing forward, but couldn’t find a goal. Finally, Jonathan Rodriguez found the breakthrough in the 65th minute with a ROCKET of a finish from the top of the box. 2-1. Now that the game was officially back within reach, the Timbers kept their positive momentum going. Claudio Bravo fired in a cross in for Felipe Mora, but it was headed away. Santiago Moreno collected the loose ball, fired a shot that took a very kind deflection off of Eduard Atuesta’s foot, and found the back of the net. 2-2. Three minutes later, Diego Chara picked up his second yellow after giving the ball away at midfield and trying his hardest not to foul a counter-attacking Atuesta. But he overcommitted, and the man who was celebrating his record-setting 377th appearance with one club was sent to the dressing room in the 76th minute. Once again, the Timbers had to defend with 10 men against LAFC. Two defensive subs were introduced, and the Timbers tried their hardest to hang onto the point that they had recovered. But in the 92nd minute (90+2’), a LAFC corner kick was met in the air by Kei Kamara, who forced Crepeau to make an excellent reaction save. His save diverted the ball right into the path of an onrushing Bouanga, who fired an excellent shot off the far post to give LAFC all three points. Crushing.

I feel like I’ve said all I can say about this team and their continued struggles to keep the ball out of their own net. I think tonight’s first half calamity was mostly due to a re-emergence of the Timbers’ ball progression problem. Unlike at Providence Park, LAFC pressed Portland to death from the opening whistle. 

Here’s a map of LAFC’s defensive actions across the whole match from @MLSStat on Twitter. You can see that LAFC was very active defensively in the Timbers’ defensive third. The Timbers were being swarmed on the ball and were finding it hard to properly progress the ball. LAFC’s quick counters were able to catch the Timbers’ backline off guard. But the worst counters came when the Timbers gave the ball away in the middle of the field. The Timbers have a habit of committing too many men forward when they progress the ball into the middle third. They’ll often lose the ball in that area (see the chart) and then leave themselves woefully exposed at the back. This recurring phenomenon is exemplified by Juan Mosquera. I’m going to save the majority of my Juan thoughts for later in this article, but I will get into how he affects the buildup now. 

The Timbers continued to show an overwhelming favoritism towards the right side of the pitch during buildup. In the first meeting with LAFC, this worked. Both of the Timbers’ goals were created on the right side of the pitch. But tonight LAFC focused their hardest pressure on the right side of the pitch. Mosquera would often make an overlapping or underlapping run and then be caught out when the Timbers turned the ball over. It’s the same errors that they were making early on in the season. I will say that Bravo was also getting pressed to death on the left side, but it was clear that the Timbers intended to use Antony and Mosquera as the main outlet who could create chances for Rodriguez and Mora on the other side of the pitch. It did have some slight success in the middle of the first half, but those chances didn’t find the back of the net. 

There are two schools of thought on the defensive struggles: it’s either the fault of the players or the coaches. I haven’t made up my mind yet, but I do believe that one of those schools has taken a slight lead. 

We can all agree that the SKC game was the low point of the Timbers’ defensive struggles. They weren’t locked in and they conceded three ugly first half goals. One came from open play and two came off of set pieces. Since then, the Timbers have played LAFC twice and Columbus once. Both reached the MLS Cup final last year and both are among the best attacking teams in the league. The goal was always going to be limiting their chances because against some teams you can’t completely neutralize their attack. You just have to force them to create less dangerous chances and force them to take tougher shots that have a smaller likelihood of finding the back of the net. In the first LAFC game and the Columbus game, the Timbers did exactly that. Bogusz’s first goal on April 13th was an excellent finish fired in from a tight angle. Yes, there was a mistake from Miguel Araujo that opened the space for him, but the finish itself had an xG value of 0.10 and a xGOT (expected goals on target) value of 0.52. The actual chance was borderline, but the finish was excellent. His second goal (the free-kick) had an xG value of 0.12 and a xGOT value of 0.24. Another solid chance, but another pretty good finish. That’s two goals conceded from a xG value of 0.22 in the first PTFC-LAFC game. Now let’s check on Columbus. Cucho’s goal had an xG value of 0.15 and a xGOT value of 0.42. Poor chance, but a good finish. The numbers on Moreira’s goal are what you’d expect: 0.02 xG and 0.58 xGOT. 2 goals conceded from 0.17 xG and an even 1.00 xGOT. Tonight, LAFC tallied three goals, and one of those was an own goal. Tillman’s goal had an xG value of 0.04 and a xGOT value of 0.58. Another excellent finish on a poor chance. Bouanga’s goal had the same xG value but a xGOT value of 0.68. 2 goals conceded from a combined 0.08 xG and a combined 1.26 xGOT. The Timbers went from giving up easy goals to conceding worldies in the matter of three weeks. That’s what happens when you play two elite teams over the period of three weeks. In those first two games, the Timbers did an excellent job defensively and got punished on their biggest mistakes. That was due to an excellent defensive mentality that only got broken by the skill of opposing players, not their own mistakes. Tonight, the Timbers didn’t bring that mentality. They weren’t locked in from kickoff knowing that they would have to defend every blade of grass. Only after that disallowed Bouanga goal did they get their act in order. And even after that, players were still lacking in the effort department. The first key is always mentality. If the Timbers aren’t mentally prepared to do the little things right, they won’t and they’ll continue to cede quality chance after quality chance. But there is a legitimate argument for the coaching as well.

One specific phase of play can be blamed purely on coaching. In 2024, the Portland Timbers continue to be victimized by set pieces on both the offensive and defensive ends of the pitch. Today, with 10 men, the Timbers conceded off of a second-chance ball on a set piece. That second-chance ball was born out of a Kei Kamara header that found the target after he jumped over three defenders. It’s still a mystery how the Timbers want to defend set pieces, and that’s on the coaching staff. Are they supposed to mark zonally or mark each man? 

Based on this picture, taken from the corner kick that turned into LAFC’s winner, I can assume that zonal marking is the intent of the coaching staff. Kamara’s imposing figure is about to meet this cross head on. 

Three Timbers defenders are about to challenge Kamara for this ball. Neither will be able to stop him. 

By this point, Crepeau has already punched away the initial header. Both Zac McGraw and David Ayala tried to clear it, but ended up falling over each other. So the ball was able to bounce out uncontested to Denis Bouanga, who fired it home for the winner.

Most of the times Portland defends a corner kick, they are unable to properly clear the ball. I think part of it is due to poor technique and part of it is due to poor coaching. But the continued problems on set pieces can be firmly blamed on coaching. Until the set piece problem can be fixed, the Timbers will never be a championship-level team. 

Tonight’s defensive problems were exemplified by Juan Mosquera. After very good showings in back to back weeks against LAFC and Columbus, I thought that his recent form would continue into today’s game. And tonight, the young Colombian regressed. What made those previous performances so good was his effort in both attack and defense. Mosquera’s defensive effort tonight was nowhere close to the last couple of games. In the first meeting, he was putting his full effort into getting back on the defensive side of the ball. He was still doing his attacking duties in tonight’s match, but oftentimes he was jogging back on the defensive side, which would cause Miguel Araujo to come out of his line to cover Mosquera’s space, and setting off a chain reaction that a backline that’s leaking goals cannot afford. The decision to substitute him at halftime was completely justified. Not only was he beaten on LAFC’s first goal (the own goal), he would have been beaten on their second if the ball found its way to his side of the field. A massive disappointment from him today, and his position is under threat based on how the defense stabilized after Eric Miller entered the game. I hope tonight is a massive wake-up call for him.

Oddly enough, I don’t think that any other player could be categorized as “bad.” Sure, some performances weren’t incredible, but I don’t think that they were utterly terrible either. 

Let’s start with the scorer of that own goal: Kamal Miller. Before that own goal, Miller was playing like our best center back. He was fearless in the challenge and racked up some excellent numbers. 2 tackles won, 1 block, 4 clearances, 2 headed clearances, and 4 recoveries while winning 3 out his 5 attempted ground duels. That own goal really has to hurt, and it’s rather unfortunate that he paid the price for Mosquera’s error. Miguel Araujo continues to be busy as well. The Peruvian won 4 out his 7 attempted aerial duels, won a tackle, and made 2 interceptions. That’s a solid outing in my book. Although the goals conceded number continues to rise, Miller and Araujo are improving game by game in their partnership. It boggles my mind that the Timbers conceded 3 goals and both center backs had good games. This team is special, man. 

I had another Claudio Bravo epiphany today. Many people criticize his aggressiveness in the challenge. I like to call it “biting.” Let me explain. Bravo will often lunge in and completely miss during a tackle attempt. That’s the bite. However, Bravo does this because he trusts his recovery ability so much that it’s worth the risk to keep “biting” over and over again. Yes, it can be frustrating, but he keeps demonstrating his recovery ability time and time again. The positives of Claudio Bravo always outweigh the negatives. Although his attacking contributions were a bit muted, he fired in the cross to Felipe Mora that became the Timbers’ equalizer. Plus his partnership with Jonathan Rodriguez continues to get better week by week. 

Eryk Williamson earned the start after an impressive showing in Columbus, but didn’t really grow into the game until the second half. I thought his set-piece delivery was fine, and he did show the effort required in defense when he needed to. But while watching Eryk tonight, I realized how the Eryk-Evander partnership works, even though Evander didn’t see the field.

Against Columbus, whenever Eryk would venture forward, Evander would drop back to cover the space he vacated. Both players had the understanding to do this and it helped the Timbers keep their shape against a tough Columbus team. When Santiago Moreno started as the 10 tonight, he didn’t have the same positional understanding that Evander does when Eryk is in the team with him. So tonight, Eryk would roam forward, and Moreno would stay high. That left Diego Chara to cover way too much ground, and the Timbers would often turn the ball over. That’s another reason why LAFC’s press was able to create such quick counter-attacking opportunities in this game. Although Evander missed tonight’s game due to a leg injury, this loss allowed me to get a better understanding of the team’s dynamics. So I’m pretty happy about that. 

Antony struggled with some decision-making, and he wasn’t putting in the same defensive effort that we saw from him in the first LAFC game. He’s coming off of an injury, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt. After I saw the lineup, I predicted that he would exit for Dairon Asprilla at some point, and then that exact substitution happened in the 59th minute. There is serious competition between him and Santiago Moreno for that right wing position.

Santiago Moreno was tasked with being the 10 tonight, and I thought he did an OK job. He did find the back of the net and assist Jonathan Rodriguez’s goal (continuing his trend of getting goal involvements during otherwise average performances) but his decision-making in the final third was a little subpar. That’s nothing new with him, and he was tasked with a lot of responsibility tonight. He did give maximum effort for the full game, so I can praise him for that. So far in 2024, he has 3 goals and 2 assists. His big issue is still consistency, but he did pick up the “counting stats slack” while Evander was out. 

Felipe Mora was the player who was most affected by Evander’s absence. He wasn’t able to get the service that he’s been getting as of late and struggled as a result. He was tasked with a lot more hold-up play than normal, but at least he wasn’t getting fouled to bits tonight. The consecutive games with a goal streak is over, but it’s nothing to worry about for the long term.

Dairon Asprilla came off the bench and put in another solid shift. Tonight, he needed to defend, and his defensive work was outstanding. 1 tackle, 2 recoveries, 2 out of 4 ground duels won and 2 out of 5 aerial duels won. He’s still an invaluable piece of this team and he needs a new contract.

Maxime Crepeau made 8 saves and once again kept the Timbers in the game. I can confidently say that none of the goals the Timbers conceded were his fault. It’s been a rough start to his Timbers career, and he gave his thoughts on the Timbers’ defensive struggles in his post-game press conference: “It’s a little bit of everything.” He made his return to a place where he won MLS Cup and tried his hardest to get his new team a victory. He deserves a clean sheet and something to celebrate soon. 

If Juan Mosquera is emblematic of the defensive struggles, Jonathan Rodriguez is the embodiment of the offensive struggles. In my preview article for this match, I talked about the Timbers’ need to create chances at a higher volume than they currently are. Rodriguez had 6 shots and scored 1 goal off of those shots. It’s clear that he is a very good player, but he needs a high volume of chances to finish in order to be effective. That’s the case for most goalscorers in soccer, not just Rodriguez. The more the Timbers can feed J-Rod, the more goals he will score. It’s not that hard of a concept to understand. His goal tonight was an excellent strike from the top of the box that Hugo Lloris had no chance of saving. He’s been here a month and has 2g/1a. Keep feeding the Uruguayan and good things will happen.

Tonight’s match, in all aspects, was about Diego Chara. He made his 377th appearance for the Timbers, which makes him the new record-holder for most MLS regular season games played with one club. And up until the 76th minute, he was in the middle of a masterpiece. From chasing down the lightning-fast Denis Bouanga from midfield and keeping his cool under pressure, tonight was set up to be a classic Diego Chara game. But the soccer gods love cruel jokes, and even the biggest smiles are not immune. After picking up a yellow card in the 72nd minute following a trademark tactical foul, Chara had the ball in the center circle four minutes later. But the Portland stalwart couldn’t control it, and Eduard Atuesta took it away from him. Our heroic Colombian had to hunt down his fellow countrymen and Diego got just enough of him to see his second yellow card of the night. That was the third time in his Timbers career that he has ever seen a second yellow. For the record, he has been yellow carded 117 times as a Portland Timber in MLS play. That means that he has played 114 of those 377 MLS appearances on a yellow card at some point and didn’t get sent off. Of course, on his special day, the biggest Diego Chara anomaly would occur. According to Phil Neville, the captain is not happy about his dismissal and blames himself for the way events played out tonight. “Sending Diego Chara off on his 377th game is MLS.” It’s the soccer gods’ version of a cosmic joke, and no one is laughing at it. 

So far in 2024, the Timbers have erased one 1-goal deficit, two 2-goal deficits, and one 3-goal deficit. All of those results have come on the road. And they have 4 points to show for it in those 4 games. Tonight, the Timbers backed themselves into a corner again, fought their way back again, and then came out of it with nothing, again. “I think it would be nice to play LAFC 11v11 for 95-96 minutes,” Phil Neville said in his post-game press conference. “That would be a really good game of football for the neutrals to see.” I can’t imagine the disappointment that’s coming from that locker room tonight. Their season series with LAFC is over, and they only have one point to show from two winnable games. So how does tonight’s result affect the league table?

This really sucks, and I’m not going to sugar coat it. The Portland Timbers have the second most goals scored in the West but the second most goals conceded. Despite scoring more goals than every team but the Galaxy, Portland is in 10th place with a -1 goal differential. They haven’t won in seven matches, and tonight seemed like a game that would have taken place a month ago. However, the Timbers have run through a gauntlet over the past two months.

The past is in the past, and now it’s time to look towards the future. Reader, that future looks pretty bright.

These defensive issues aren’t going to get solved overnight, but they are slowly getting better. What the Timbers need more than anything is a victory. Despite a couple of winnable games over the last two months, they spent the majority of their game time away from home. While the results aren’t going the Timbers’ way, there is an argument to be made that they have been on the end of both some extremely good luck and extremely bad luck. So far, the 2024 Portland Timbers have been a cosmic joke to the soccer gods. Last week, it was an unbelievable strike from a center back and a dubiously-awarded free kick that crossed the face of the goal without crossing the line. Tonight, the man of honor did something that only has a 1 in 141 chance of happening. No matter what, the Timbers’ luck on both sides of the ball will even out soon. Now the Timbers will travel to a brand new place without their captain, and securing a win is of the utmost importance. Over the past three weeks, the Portland Timbers haven’t been as bad as their results have indicated. But the coach said it best: “We can’t give teams 2-0 starts and expect to win games of football.” There is talent on this team. They are able to win games of soccer. But there’s no positive momentum to take from this game. This match has to serve as a gigantic wake-up call, because these types of results are completely unacceptable. All that’s left to do is focus on Charlotte, because the Timbers need a win. And the Timbers have to be willing to do whatever it takes to get three points. The question I have after tonight: can they? Does this team know how to win a soccer game? They’ve done it twice in 2024. One was a blowout, and the other was a gritty comeback delivered by a player who didn’t see the field tonight. There are signs that the Timbers are a good soccer team, but good soccer teams can at least pick up a result from a game like tonight. In a season full of tough results, this one is the hardest to stomach. This team needs a confidence boost, and fast.

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