A New Mattress
Tonight's trip to San Diego ended in a 0-0 draw. But you know what's cool about it? The Portland Timbers will finish the 2025 regular season without a loss in Southern California.
Recap
Portland had the first chance in the 8th minute. David Ayala correctly closed down a passing lane and made an interception, which fortunately bounced to David Da Costa. Portuguese Dave called his own number and shot from distance, but his attempt went wide of the far post. 8 minutes later, San Diego had the ball in the back of the net.
Finn Surman's suicide pass to Ayala was easily read by San Diego's strong forward press, and the resulting turnover saw Anders Dreyer put in a delicious cross for Hirving Lozano at the back post. But the Danish MVP candidate was offside on the initial pass, and the linesman's flag went up directly after he received said pass. Definitely a warning shot. The real danger came in the 31st minute.
Manu Duah's progressive pass bypassed the entirety of Portland's midfield, and Corey Baird played a clever flick to Dreyer, who was already behind the defense. The resulting 2v1 breakaway (with Juan Mosquera as the "1") saw Dreyer finish past James Pantemis at the near post. However, replays of the goal indicated that Dreyer, once again, might have been offside. Referee Rosendo Mendoza went to the monitor and correctly overturned the call on the field (goal to no goal). The Timbers entered halftime tied 0-0, which is a very good score at the break.
It was Portland's turn to exert some pressure in the second half. In the 52nd minute, Da Costa found Kristoffer Velde in space, but the Norwegian chose to hold up play and wait for Jimer Fory to complete the overlap. In that time, a multitude of San Diego players got behind the ball, and the team was forced to recycle possession. Another chance fell to Velde on a recycled corner kick (created by Felipe Carballo’s blocked shot from a tight angle) but the finish was shanked. Another strong half-chance came when a ball over the top for Felipe Mora forced CJ Dos Santos to come off his line. Mora’s decision was to chip the goalkeeper, but the chip fell to Da Costa, and the flag was raised after Duah’s strong positioning left Portuguese Dave with nowhere to go. It was Da Costa’s turn to provide for Mora in the 67th minute, but a dangerous slip pass to the Chilean was easily collected by Dos Santos when Mora didn’t continue his run. But Portland’s best chance came in the 80th minute. Ariel Lassiter’s corner kick took an odd deflection off of a San Diego head, which missed Finn Surman entirely and caused the slightest bit of hesitation in Mora at the back post, who failed to get a clean strike on a golden opportunity.
That would be all that she wrote in terms of major Timbers chances as San Diego tried to do what they do best: score late goals and change results. However, after a Dario Zuparic god-mode first half, it was Surman’s turn. After making key intervention after intervention (the highlight being a stellar tackle on Amahl Pellegrino in the 87th minute), it seemed like the Timbers were going to keep the clean sheet. And then, for a moment, it almost disappeared.
I don’t know what Mendoza was looking at, but he pointed to the spot in the 90th minute after Zuparic made a sliding block on a Pellegrino cross. It seemed like Mendoza thought the cross hit Zuparic’s hand. One quick replay showed the complete opposite; a block with the thigh. After an obvious VAR recommendation, the call was obviously overturned (maybe not so obvious, I saw what happened in Vancouver tonight). Portland had to hang on for a couple more minutes of stoppage time, but the result remained the same. 0-0: a road point and a clean sheet.
Tactics N’ Stuff
Although I have a segment in preview articles called “Tactical Preview,” I’ve realized that I don’t talk about pure, raw, dirty tactics enough in that space. Consider this a make-up, because I have a lot of things to say about this game.
Let’s begin with an obvious weakness that I actually can’t really fault the Timbers for (at least in this game). San Diego’s unique (at least in MLS) style of press-baiting created their best (offside) chance of the night. The principles are as follows: keep knocking the ball around the back until the opposing team has brought all 10 of their field players across the halfway line. Now the game is being played in one half, and San Diego can find the spaces between the lines. First, the outlet ball is played.
In this case, Manu Duah is tasked with playing this bold and dangerous ball. But I’m not going to praise him for this because it is not a bold and dangerous ball. In fact, I’m going to draw a difference between what Corey Baird (the dark blue (?) shirt on the left side of this photo) does here and what most Timbers players do when they receive a pass like this. The difference, by the way, is what makes a team dynamic and what makes them passive.
Baird is actually running to the ball. He’s not standing like a traffic cone allowing opposition defenders to pressure him before the ball arrives at his feet. By making a run towards the ball, he’s about to create the space that results in the ball hitting the back of the net.
Most Timbers players have an infuriating habit of treating every pass into their feet like a chance to partake in some hold-up play. In doing so, they immediately lose the advantage that this kind of pass can provide. Manu Duah isn’t the only guy in the world who passes like this (even though he’s very good at it). Dario Zuparic, Kamal Miller, and Finn Surman routinely try passes like this. But their receivers are not engaging in the same kind of movement that Baird tries here. It isn’t even that revolutionary. It’s simply trying to get to the ball ahead of the defender and dictate the play ON YOUR OWN TERMS.
The Timbers want to dominate the ball, but don’t want to do it on their own terms. They want to play against what the defense gives them instead of trying to break open the defense themselves. Unfortunately, this is a common theme with Da Costa, who is kind of the poster child of this phenomenon. Since that Club America game, he’s been much more reluctant to run at defenders and try creative passes into space. San Diego proves that even the most simple and basic progressive passes can turn into something special when the RECEIVER takes control.
Baird’s next touch is a through ball that bypasses Portland’s center backs and springs an offside Dreyer through on goal. San Diego has been doing this all year. I’m not disappointed in Portland’s center backs because this happens to every team in MLS that plays San Diego. I could be disappointed in the midfield, but Ayala and Carballo are playing in their first game together. I’m not expecting the world of them. There is something that’s bugging me here, but I think it needs a MUCH deeper dive than anything I can accomplish in this (well, allegedly) brief recap of tonight’s game (international break is coming up, keep your eyes out for something nitty and gritty around then). Either way, Portland’s recovery from a wobbly first half is what gets them a point against the Shield leaders away from home.
In the second half, Antony’s introduction changes the entire game. By providing an outlet who was willing to be more direct than Mati Rojas, Portland began to move the game into San Diego’s half. But this came with a crucial difference: the Timbers’ press kept Los Plasticos contained. Carballo, who was shaky in the first 45, came alive. Portland was able to dominate the second balls and limit San Diego’s fast breaks. Another factor also worked to Portland’s advantage: Baird’s substitution as the first half wound down.
In Houston, Corey Baird acted as the focal point in buildup but operated as a box-crasher in possession. The prime version of Ben Olsen’s Dynamo, however, did not use their wingers as direct runners like San Diego does. On that right side in the first half, Dreyer wreaked havoc by positioning himself between Fory and Zuparic and dominating the channel. Once Baird came off due to injury, Dreyer was moved into the middle with David Vazquez replacing him on the right wing. The young American (currently on loan from Philadelphia) did not exploit the space in behind like Dreyer did. San Diego’s best counterattacking opportunity in the second half came from a ball into space for Dreyer in the 72nd minute after a cleared Timbers corner kick. But running down the middle opened himself up to Juan Mosquera’s recovery run, which nullified the threat (until Mosquera made a dumb foul and gave away a free kick from a dangerous area).
With Dreyer operating through the middle, and Baird’s off-ball savvy and reading of the game on the sideline, Portland was able to contain the biggest threat to their defense in the first half. It resulted in a rather pedestrian outing for the MVP candidate. Do you think Mikey Varas misses Milan Iloski? Or the injured Marcus Ingvartsen? Through 40 minutes, Baird looked like an extremely solid pickup from a Cincinnati team that never figured out how to properly use him.
Meanwhile, Portland’s most dangerous chances didn’t come from open play, and their best one was determined by the finest of margins. As their new attack learns how to work together, it’s pretty clear that one of their new attackers might not be as “starting XI” as Phil Neville initially thought. I’ll get into that later, but I’m very proud of this team for being able to get a clean sheet tonight. I don’t think there’s a main Timbers takeaway right now, but I’d urge you not to hold your breath. There’s still plenty of time for me to talk myself into a big-picture idea from this game.
Player Ratings
One big-picture takeaway has already been realized, but it’s been brewing in my mind since the Carballo Bogert Bomb dropped.
The Uruguayan fills the biggest hole in the team (a consistent 8 to partner Ayala). This makes him the floor-raiser. Velde, meanwhile, is tasked with scoring goals and being a creative force out wide. Those goals will determine the team’s ceiling. Rojas is the man who can turn the game (for better and worse) on a dime through spectacular bits of individual play. Therefore, he’s the wild card. Let’s begin today’s player ratings by looking at each of the Summer Three, starting with the floor (no, that’s not his nickname).
Felipe Carballo: 7.5
His first touch as a Timber was the only one that truly stood out from the Summer Three. It was a perfect volleyed switch to Dario Zuparic from a throw-in. No, that’s not magical, but it brings something to the table that Portland’s midfield is often lacking: ball-progression awareness. This skill isn’t illustrated (in this case) by a perfect through ball or long ball over the top. It’s through a simple switch that changes the point of attack and bypasses the opposition overload on the right flank.
Defensively, he was a bit suspect in the first half as he learned how to complement Ayala. I’m fully confident in the consistent improvement of that partnership because I watched the second half. Meanwhile, it’s clear that he already has reached the early stages of good chemistry with Velde. Lots to like from this game, particularly as he settled in and got comfortable.
Kristoffer Velde: 6.7*
This is a hard grade to give out, but it’s true. Aside from some promising moments in combination play, Velde looked pretty pedestrian. HOWEVER, there’s a reason that I’ve put an asterisk by that number.
Velde’s last game in which he played 60+ minutes was back on May 4th. In tonight’s outing, he looked rusty. It was even more apparent when he started cramping around the hour mark. I was looking for a substitution immediately after the first cramp. That’s why teams have depth. The Norwegian is lacking match sharpness, so he’ll probably be on a minutes counter against Minnesota next weekend. Either way, I’m still wondering what would have happened if Da Costa played the square pass in the 8th minute.
Mati Rojas: 6.5
I was debating whether or not to put an asterisk on Rojas’ rating too. You have to go all the way back to November 9th to find his last outing that constituted more than an hour. Maybe he does deserve an asterisk. But there’s one thing that concerns me, and it has nothing to do with match sharpness.
“Wild card” was a spot-on description of Rojas, and it shows up in his heatmap. For reference, here’s Santiago Moreno’s heatmap from June 8th against St. Louis (when the Timbers played out of a 4-2-3-1 like tonight):
Obviously Moreno was more active. But that’s not the point. Both players want to invert, so they’ll occupy the channels instead of holding width. I was begging for Moreno to start staying wider, but he never did. This isn’t an “alarm bells” level of concern, and it’s probably more natural for Rojas to invert on the right because he’s left-footed. But there is reason to believe that Portland’s spacing problems in attack will continue. I think Rojas has more quality around the penalty area than Moreno does. But it’s still asking a lot of Mosquera to hold that width. He’s going to need an adjustment period like Velde. In addition, he only took two set pieces. Patience will be key.
James Pantemis: 7.4
I’m not engaging in the goalkeeper debate. Pantemis made one save on the only shot on target he faced. That’s credit to his backline more than anything. I thought he commanded his line well and did a good job with long passes.
Juan Mosquera: 7.2
It’s safe to say that Mosquera had Lozano in jail. That’s the hallmark of a solid defensive performance. I liked everything about that recovery run to stop Dreyer except the foul. In addition, he did a little foul-baiting to try and get Luca de la Torre sent off with a second yellow card. That needs to be admired.
FINN SURMAN: 9.9
It hasn’t been a full year since the Kiwi made his first Timbers appearance in Seattle, and now he’s wearing the captain’s armband. When he inevitably leaves the Timbers for a fee of at least 8 figures, he’s going to look back on this night and feel proud. Heck, he was already brimming with pride prior to kickoff! “It fills me with a great deal of pride and honor. I know what I’m representing when I wear that armband.” So much of what makes him elite cannot show up on the stat sheet. However, there’s one thing keeping this from being a perfect 10: that suicide pass to Ayala. He has to stop doing those. I know it’s kind of a teamwide problem, and I wish that everyone did that. But he set an example as a leader, so I’ll use him as an example of a personal pet peeve.
DARIO ZUPARIC: 10
Dario Zuparic, you have my full attention. The man just loves to defend, and I love watching him defend. Blocking crosses, winning header, he lives for that shit. His herculean performance in the first half helped keep the game tied, and he supported Surman’s takeover in the final 10 minutes. In addition, this reaction to the ridiculous penalty call made me laugh out loud on my couch.
I don’t think that raising your hands when you’re trying to plead your innocence from a handball is the best look. But that is a man who is absolutely sure that those hands did not touch the ball. And they didn’t! I don’t think I’ve ever seen Zuparic commit a handball infraction. He’s so smart with his positioning when blocking crosses and shots that his hands are never in a bad spot. It’s utterly textbook. My initial reaction was disbelief when Mendoza pointed to the spot. “Zuparic? Of all people? Letting his hands get caught out?” See? It’s even more ridiculous when the replay was shown!
Jimer Fory: 6.7
This was not a good Fory game. He was caught out of position by multiple balls in behind and made a few sloppy giveaways. However, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention a perfect cross in the 53rd minute that should’ve resulted in a quality shot on goal.
Kevin Kelsy: 6.5
That cross went to Kelsy, who decided to dummy it instead of taking it on his left foot and having a go. However, I completely understand his thought process. Last week, he saw Evander dummy a cross to allow Kevin Denkey to score Cincinnati’s opener. Somehow, that dummy attempt tonight makes me like him even more.
Good players who want to get better watch what other good players do and try to add it to their own game. In this instance, it utterly failed because Kelsy didn’t have the proper awareness to understand that he had the better chance than the trailing Da Costa. But that dummy did what a dummy is supposed to do: catch everyone off guard. Unfortunately, that included his own teammate. Meanwhile, he was suffering from a lack of service and was rather invisible in possession. Duah had his number, and constantly used body feints to open up space. I would like to highlight my favorite Kelsy moment of the game, and it came in the 30th minute. He pressured Christopher McVey, who had to pass it back to his own goalkeeper before Dos Santos cleared it due to heavy pressure from Da Costa. I’m going to bookmark that and come back to it in a few weeks.
DAVID AYALA: 9.7
In tonight’s edition of “David Ayala’s Grown Man Runs,” we must go to the 4th minute of first-half stoppage time.
*Curse you Apple TV.*
Last year, Ayala’s breakout was fueled by excellent passing and strong tackles. His 2025 evolution has been his ability to escape pressure. At least once a week he’s going on Grown Man Runs or making clever turns/passes to open up space for himself. Aside from that Grown Man Run, my favorite Ayala sequence in this game occurred in the 14th minute. He plays a nifty chop pass to Rojas (my Lord the SAUCE) and immediately takes a whack to the face from Franco Negri. I was pretty sure that this would be a red card for violent conduct as Negri clearly had no intention of playing the ball and had every intention of clobbering his fellow Argentine. Despite a stoppage while Ayala was on the ground, VAR did not intervene. It proved to be the only truly dirty play from Los Plasticos, but it still makes me a little angry thinking about it.
David Da Costa: 6.7
I’m going to let Phil Neville write this section for me.
“He has to deliver. He has to deliver. We’ve now got five places for four players and he has to deliver. You invest in that end of the pitch for those players to deliver. His positions, the areas he’s picking up the ball in are no different. He’s got more quality around him. His level of performance now should be a lot better.”
Taking off your DP number 10 in the 83rd minute of a scoreless game speaks volumes to me. No, I don’t expect him to fill up the scoresheet. But what I’m desperately looking for is something that I haven’t seen since the Lens tape (I know that I’m the only one here who has seen the full Lens tape, so I’m begging you to trust me on this).
In that Lens tape, Da Costa’s pure will to drive at defenders was all over the film. It’s what made me compare him to Riqui Puig when the signing was announced. Unfortunately, it hasn’t shown up as much in recent weeks. Da Costa is still in the Bouanga-Carles Gil-Gabriel Pec tier in terms of progressive carries, but the impetus behind them hasn’t been the same. Neville spells it out in the quote above. That ability to carry the ball forward at pace is a key that can unlock defenses by forcing players to converge on him. He needs to get that swagger back.
Quick sidebar: that last point made me think about Portland’s tendency to drop back in the face of an aggressive ball carrier. In the 10th minute, Duah carries the ball practically unmolested from his own backline to Portland’s box before firing in a cross. Don’t be afraid to make a hard tackle on a free ball-carrier.
Felipe Mora: 6.5
I think Mora puts that chance at the back post in the goal if that slight deflection doesn’t put him off-balance. But here’s the larger point: his MLS scoreless drought has reached 15 games. Maybe that streak is broken in Minnesota next weekend, but he’s not finding the positions that he usually does. Lack of service does play a part, but he’s also not crashing the box. It’s the weirdest stretch of his Timbers career. I think something changed when he missed that penalty against the Rapids.
Antony: 7.3
The mere threat of Antony is enough to change a game. When the Brazilian entered for Rojas at the hour mark, Portland’s attacks began to have purpose again. Sometimes you just have to give the ball to the unpredictable Brazilian and see what he comes up with. I was really looking forward to watching him and Velde play together, and it didn’t happen (six minutes doesn’t count).
Ariel Lassiter: 6.7
Velde’s replacement was Lassiter, who had a quality corner kick delivery. By the way, he was billed as a left-sided player when he came to Portland, but has now made back to back appearances on the right wing. I like the idea of diagonal off-ball box-crashing runs from that right side. And he can hit a dead ball too! Pretty good free-kick in the 72nd minute. I didn’t expect him to try to put it on target, but he did and it forced a good save from Dos Santos.
Cristhian Paredes: 10?
This is not his actual rating. That’s where he played when he entered for Da Costa. I’m not opposed to the idea of him joining the first line of Portland’s press. His off-ball work (in and out of possession) is still one of his better qualities, and he’s an underrated player in terms of combination play. Not a change that I saw coming prior to kickoff, but certainly one that makes me think (in a good way).
Diego Chara: 6.6
I only have one Chara action in my notes: passing the ball out of bounds while Fory was on the ground in second-half stoppage time. In other words, it was the definition of a cameo.
Coach Rating: 7.5
I was initially going to do an entire section on the starting lineup, but I figured that it would fit better here.
I love the statement that starting the entire Summer Three made to the squad and the new additions. Some (like Carballo) were expected to start. But I certainly didn’t expect Velde and Rojas to be in the team from the opening whistle. It sent a message of “you guys are here, now go win us some games.”
There have been a couple of occurrences of that exact speech being given to certain players in private meetings throughout the season. Mosquera had one, Da Costa had one, other players that I’m definitely forgetting also had one. But Neville didn’t need to make that speech to the Summer Three with his words; he made it with his actions. None of them won the game for the Timbers, but I was a big fan of the message it sent.
The substitutions were good, and the Timbers are starting to form some kind of identity: we will keep you in your own half. I like that. The next step is being able to capitalize on it. That’s why Velde, Carballo, and Rojas are here.
Table Time
In a perfect world, the Timbers win tonight’s game and capitalize on a slew of positive results that occurred around the league. I am choosing to ignore Vancouver’s win because it’s a positive version of an Asterisk for them. LAFC’s draw in Dallas could pay dividends down the line, and a lot of the teams below them (except for San Jose) took brutal losses against teams that they should be beating (looking at you, Colorado and Austin). Seattle doesn’t play until later on Sunday, but I’m hoping for some wacky nonsense (maybe another red card, as uncreative as that may be) as they rotate for a Leagues Cup semifinal against the same (non-rotated) Galaxy that spanked the ‘Pids tonight.
Final Whistle
Earlier in this recap, I said that I didn’t have an immediate big-picture takeaway from this game. But I also told y’all to give me time, and I’d probably come up with one. You’ll never believe this, but I did come up with one!
The clean sheet is tonight’s biggest takeaway. As the attack starts to find their footing, a defense that (however lucky they were tonight) can keep a shutout on the road deserves a fair bit of praise. Especially when one of their most consistent defenders had a poor game by his standards. Sometimes you are able to erase the most dangerous threats like the LAFC win. Other times, you come up against a player that is born offside (this is one of my favorite descriptors of a player and I’m so happy that I get to use it again, shoutout to Mbaye Diagne). By the way, the Timbers have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 road games. And it was against the two best teams in that trio!
The minor takeaway is the underrated battle between Finn Surman and Manu Duah, who were the two best players on the pitch. Both of them will get sold for 8 figures. Surman’s consistency is unbelievable and should get him Best XI shouts (and maybe a Defender of the Year shout too, check back here in October for that carefully prepared argument). Duah shows confidence on the ball that I haven’t seen from a young MLS center back in ages. Given that it’s his first year in the league, I expect him to keep rapidly improving game after game. One of them was plucked from New Zealand, and the other came from UC-Santa Barbara (one of my favorite March Madness bracket picks whenever they make the tournament, well, actually, the entire Big West Conference for that matter). After a week where vitriol was spewed at MLS by the worst American soccer fans in existence, it’s still so cool to see players from different development paths come here and become stars.
Two of the Summer Three could be considered MLS stars after successful stints with other clubs in 2024. The third is trying to establish himself as one. Tonight’s game reminded me of getting a new mattress. Sometimes you’re able to fall asleep at an instant and wake up feeling refreshed. Other times it can be a bit hard. You haven’t been able to find your spot yet and you keep tossing and turning while trying to get comfortable. Portland will have to sleep on this new mattress for the rest of the season. Tonight’s sleep was rougher than it probably should have been, but now they have to wake up and tackle the rest of the day with something that felt satisfying but was troubled by some nuisance dreams. I think the result speaks for itself. I also think I’m a little tired. Two things can be true.
A full week of training awaits as the Timbers get ready to head to Minnesota. They have never won a game in Minnesota. That test might be harder than tonight’s clash with the leaders of the Western Conference. But Portland has started to form a habit of playing up to the level of their opponent. I saw that in the second half tonight. Can they do it on a (weather unknown) day in St. Paul next week? A win there would be dynamite for their playoff seeding hopes. The climb continues.
