Austin FC-Portland Timbers Preview (5/29)

The Portland Timbers have won 2 of their last 3 games. That’s pretty good. But their recent uptick in form is about to be tested, because now they must travel to Austin for a midweek clash.

The Austin Report

Most MLS expansion teams are pretty inoffensive. And then there’s Austin FC. Last year I wrote about the #SaveTheCrew movement and owner Anthony Precourt’s hand in it. I don’t know why I dislike Austin this much. Maybe it’s their silly tree logo, or the fact that they are one of the most notorious “kit criminals” in MLS. Or their ridiculous light displays after a goal is scored. Since coming into the league in 2021, Austin has been trying to reach for the stars. The closest they got was in 2022 when they lost the Western Conference Final to LAFC. It was widely accepted that the Verde-and-Black got incredibly lucky that year. They wildly overperformed their expected goals, and their star men Sebastian Driussi and Brad Stuver carried them on his back. That year was unsustainable, and they tumbled down the table in 2023. Austin finished 5 points back of a playoff spot and needed some serious changes to compete in 2024. 

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A boatload of players left the club in the offseason. Maxi Urruti, Sofiane Djeffal, Will Bruin, Rodney Redes, and several others had their contract options declined. Nick Lima was traded to New England as well. Four new players came in. Jaden Obrian arrived via the Re-Entry Draft, Diego Rubio and Brendan Hines-Ike were free agents, and Guilherme Biro arrived from Mirassol in Brazil’s second division. All of these signings were solid, but they weren’t players who could push Austin into contention. As a result, many pundits predicted that the Verde-and-Black were going to be contending for the Wooden Spoon. They failed to win their first 5 games, and it looked like the predictions were coming true. But then, seemingly out of nowhere, Austin won 4 of their next 5. The most impressive win was a 2-0 victory over a rolling LA Galaxy team at Q2 Stadium. It is their best win of the season up to this point, and their schedule has been rather kind. After that excellent 5-game stretch, Austin picked up 8 points from their next 5 games. Now we’re caught up to the present day. Austin is 6-5-4 with 23 points (5W/10S). And like 2022, it looks rather fraudulent.

You can only beat the teams on your schedule, and it’s no secret how easy Austin’s has been through the first few months of 2024. The average PPG of their 2024 opponents is 1.17. A team averaging 1.17 points per game in 2024 would rank 17th in the Supporter’s Shield standings. Speaking of the Shield standings, Austin has only played 3 teams in the top half of those standings in 2024 so far. Two of those games were at home. Since the University of Texas is joining the SEC next year, radio show callers can sum up my thoughts on Austin’s schedule so far: “They ain’t played nobody, PAWL!”

And even against that pillow-soft opposition, Austin’s attack has been pretty dreadful. They’re averaging 1.06 xG per 90, which is the 4th-fewest in MLS. You can’t score a lot of goals when you’re dead last in shot-creating actions per 90 as well. Guess what? They’re overperforming their non-penalty expected goals by 4.4; the 5th-highest mark in the league. They’re averaging the fewest shots and shots on target per 90 in MLS too. The raw underlying numbers are screaming FRAUD in regards to the attack. They’re struggling to create chances in possession because they’re still over-reliant on crosses into the penalty area. Every single one of their major attacking numbers is among the worst in the league. Many things can be blamed for it, but Driussi has been trying his hardest to kickstart things. Obrian has been a welcome addition, but he’s at his best in transition. Emiliano Rigoni has been one of the most disappointing DPs in the league since he arrived in the summer of 2022. Sporting director Rodolfo Borrell kept him on the roster for the first few months of the season, but waived him and bought out his contract right before he played in his 12th game in 2024. If he did play, his contract would have been automatically extended for one extra season. Now Austin has an open DP slot, and the most unproductive player on their roster is gone. All of their problems cannot be laid at Rigoni’s feet, however. This attack is not built to consistently create chances, but now they have some more flexibility for the summer transfer window.

Funnily enough, their defense is also on fraud watch. They have the highest post-shot xG-goals conceded differential in MLS. Stuver has been one of the best goalkeepers in the league since joining Austin and has been just as crucial to their team’s success as Driussi. Their pure PSxG numbers are also in the bottom of the league. There really isn’t that strong of a midfield presence, and the numbers back that up. They’re averaging 4.2 tackles in the middle third per 90, which is the 2nd-lowest number in the league. These numbers from both attack and defense illustrate a bunker-and-counter team that has been ridiculously lucky even against such poor competition to open 2024. 

The only player on Austin’s injury report is Jon Gallagher. He’s questionable with an adductor strain. Several key players played the full 90 against San Jose.

I’m predicting only one change from their San Jose lineup. Ethan Finlay enters for Josh Wolff, but the head coach could start his son again. Other than that, this lineup is pretty settled. If Gallagher returns, he will play right back. Austin isn’t ravaged by injury, but their roster is very thin.

The Timbers Report

Portland’s schedule is finally softening up, and the Timbers (4-4-7, 16 points, 10W/19S) are beginning to take advantage of it. I calculated the average PPG of Portland’s opponents so far in 2024, and that number is 1.35. Out of their 15 matches played so far, they have been on the road for 8 of them. Tomorrow’s match is their 9th. But the Timbers have won 2 of their last 3 games, and now the Leagues Cup Runway has begun. There are only 10 more MLS matches until the regular season pauses and Leagues Cup begins. Half are at home and half are on the road, so the Timbers will enter Leagues Cup having played one more road match. The good news? All of those opponents are Western Conference foes (minus Nashville). The bad news? All of those opponents are Western Conference foes (minus Nashville). The concerning news? Copa America begins on June 20th. Maxime Crepeau, Kamal Miller, Miguel Araujo, and possibly Felipe Mora will miss at least 3 games. All of them will be back for Leagues Cup, but this is the most crucial part of the season. Not only do the Timbers need to build on the momentum from the past 3 games, but they need to win games of soccer. 

The goals aren’t drying up, and the defense continues to show improvements week after week. I want to take a closer look at the past 5 games to see if xG has caught up with the Timbers. Let’s start with goals conceded. Over the past 5 games, Portland’s combined xGA is 6.15. But the Timbers have conceded 9 goals. That Seattle game really stands out. In that game, the Timbers conceded twice while only allowing 0.38 xGA. In the other four games (aside from SKC) the Timbers’ xGA numbers matched the goals that they conceded. Attacking-wise, xG has finally caught up to the Timbers’ attack. They have scored 8 goals from 8.56 xG. Although there is a slight underperformance, the attack is back on track. But that’s a combined xG score, and the Timbers have scored two penalties in the past 5 games. So I’m going to solve for that. Every penalty kick has a value of 0.8 xG. If I subtract the value of those two penalties and the goals scored from them, the Timbers are actually underperforming their non-penalty expected goals by 0.96. That’s almost a full goal, and the missed chances against Minnesota certainly add up to one. Expected goals isn’t an exact science, but it is showing that the Timbers have regressed to the mean after overperforming by a significant margin during the first few months of 2024. This means that the Timbers need to keep working on consistent chance creation. Because if more chances are created, their Big Three will feast.

Phil Neville likes to hammer home how important DPs are in this league. And Neville’s top accomplishment for Portland so far is getting the most out of his Designated Players. Evander, Jonathan Rodriguez, and Felipe Mora have combined for 18 goals and 8 assists so far, which totals out to 26 goal involvements. I decided to calculate the total goal involvements for every DP so far and sort it by team to see how the Timbers stack up to other MLS clubs. Using the official Roster Profiles as reference, the Timbers’ total of 26 ranks 3rd-highest in Major League Soccer. Only two teams have a higher combined DP goal involvements than the Portland Timbers. Inter Miami is the obvious answer for one of those teams, but they’re only combined for the second-most with 28. Real Salt Lake’s trio of Chicho Arango, Matt Crooks, and Young DP Andres Gomez have combined for the most with 31. So the only two teams getting more out of their DPs are two of the top three teams in the Shield standings. Situated right below the Timbers with 24 combined goal involvements are the LA Galaxy. 5th place goes to the Colorado Rapids who have 21. Not every team uses all three of their DP slots on forwards, and Miami is the only team listed above that doesn’t have 3 forwards occupying DP slots (I’m counting 10s and other attacking midfielders as forwards in this case). Another team whose DP allocation closely resembles the Timbers is Philadelphia. Like Portland, they have two strikers and a 10 occupying DP slots. The Union rank 6th with 20 goal involvements from their DPs. Given how much Neville prioritizes DPs, it must bring him a ton of joy to see such excellent production from the highest-paid players on the Timbers’ roster. “We’re really pleased with them,” Neville said about his three stars on Tuesday. With Evander, Rodriguez, and Mora all in such fantastic form, the sky is the limit for this team if the Timbers can shore up the defense.

“In the last two or three games, we’ve looked a lot more solid and we haven’t conceded a lot of chances,” Neville said on Tuesday. “There’s a good feeling amongst the back four.” I am a little disappointed to hear the phrase “back four” in that response, but one personnel change from the SKC game solidified the defense and allowed the Timbers to have their best defensive performance from a “shots against” perspective. Before I get to the actual personnel change, I have to discuss David Ayala. Most of my Ayala praise has focused on his ability on the ball, but now it’s time to look at his defensive work. Let’s begin with his mentality. I’ve described him as a “bulldog” before, and that comparison really holds up when you rewatch this Kansas City game. He seemed to always be in the right place and incredibly strong in the challenge. He doesn’t shy away from contact either. Against SKC, he totaled 15 defensive actions. That includes 2 tackles, 2 clearances, 1 interception, 5 recoveries, and 5 duels won. The combination of his defensive output and his passing range makes him the complete package. If he’s healthy, he has to start every game he can. Time for him to stake his claim for the second spot in the double pivot alongside Diego Chara.

Now we can arrive back to the personnel change after that quick but necessary detour. Since Claudio Bravo wasn’t fit enough to start, Phil Neville had a decision to make at the left back spot. For the majority of the season, Eric Miller started at left back when Bravo wasn’t available. But against SKC, Kamal Miller got the start. The Canadian was excellent. Even though there were a couple of times where he drifted inside, it was a really good showing from a player playing out of position. His presence on the left solidified the defense and it allowed Juan Mosquera to get farther forward to impact the buildup. It wouldn’t shock me to see another start at left back for Kamal tomorrow. 

Marvin Loria is out, even though the Costa Rican has been training with the team this week. Neville can afford to be cautious with him. Santiago Moreno is listed as questionable, but Neville said that the Colombian should be in the team tomorrow. Claudio Bravo should be in the squad, but the head coach stated that he’s not 100%.

If it isn’t broken, why fix it? This could be a “rest game” for Chara, but I think Neville is going to want to capitalize on the momentum from the Kansas City win. I don’t think Moreno is healthy enough to start, so Antony gets another crack at right wing. Neville specifically mentioned the “back four” in his pre-match press conference, so this is the most likely formation for tomorrow. 

Tactical Preview

The Long Ball

It’s no secret that the Timbers are still struggling with buildup. But they are excellent at long passing. Per FBRef, the Timbers have attempted the 3rd-most long passes in the league and have registered the 6th-highest completion percentage on long balls. Using long passes against Austin looks like a safe bet. The Verde-and-Black are allowing the 4th-highest completion percentage on long balls in 2024. This will be a big game for Ayala, Kamal Miller, Zuparic and Araujo. All of them have been excellent with long passes, and they will want to find Antony, Rodriguez, and Mosquera in space. If the Timbers are looking to score goals tomorrow, the long ball looks like the best mode of attack.

Transition Defense

Austin is going to want to attack in transition, and they have a very fast and mobile front line. In order to limit transition opportunities, the Timbers will need to be at their best on the ball. Austin’s double pivot of Pereira and Ring are very good, and Driussi has been putting in a lot more work on the defensive side of the ball. The Timbers will need to be direct but also safe, and they will have to move off the ball in order to break down this Austin block. However, Kamal Miller’s presence at left back will already be a boon for the Timbers’ transition defense. In the first half against SKC, he tended to stay back and let Juan Mosquera move forward. That allowed the defense to form a makeshift back three in possession. Miller is a very smart player, and he was able to pick his spots to roam forward as the game wore on. Defensive solidity is key, and Neville isn’t lying about the Timbers conceding fewer chances over the past few games. Against a struggling attack like Austin, this looks like another match to build on. Maybe the Timbers’ first clean sheet of 2024 is on the cards.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

The Apple gods have blessed us this week. Tony Husband and Ross Smith are an excellent commentary duo, and they will be on the English broadcast. The Spanish announcers are Francisco X. Rivera and Diego Arrioja. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 PM Pacific time, and this match is FREE on Apple TV and also will be broadcast on FS1.

Referee Report

Victor Rivas was named Referee of the Year in 2023, and he will be the center referee for tomorrow. He has not refereed a Timbers match in 2024 yet.

2024 Stats: 8 games, 25.38 fouls/game, 4.13 yellows/game, 0.13 reds/game

Final Whistle

Portland has the opportunity to jump up three spots in the table tomorrow if other results around the league go their way. But their table position isn’t as important as simply winning the game. Portland has a 4-1-2 record against Austin, and both of those losses came at Q2 Stadium in 2021. This gives them a 2-0-2 record against the Verde-and-Black in Austin, and they are on a 5-match unbeaten streak against the Texan squad. Neville spoke about the humid climate in Texas during his pre-match press conference on Tuesday, so the Timbers will need to adapt to it. Even though they have a very favorable record against Austin in the past couple seasons, 2024 is all that matters. The Timbers have to get a result tomorrow. Any clean sheet would be excellent. But now the Timbers need to keep their momentum going, and another quick turnaround can do them a world of good. Time to execute. 

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