Can You Spare a Goal?

For the second consecutive match, the Portland Timbers were shut out at home. However, their opponent, FC Dallas, didn’t score a goal either. The result was the first 0-0 draw at Providence Park in 2024.

It took the Timbers a bit of time to grow into the game, but they didn’t allow any big chances to the opposition before their attack began to hum. Unfortunately, like the Austin game last Wednesday, converting those chances into goals was an uphill battle. While they were growing into the game, their first touches were off, especially around the box. But they kept going forward and eventually created some excellent chances against a Dallas team that was collapsing the box every time the Timbers entered it. Their best chance came in the 18th minute when an Evander through ball found Felipe Mora in space, but the Chilean’s shot was right at Dallas goalkeeper Jimmy Maurer. At halftime, the Timbers outshot Dallas 11-4 (4-1 shots on target) but had zero goals to show for it.

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The visitors were already eliminated from the playoffs, but they wanted to win this game. The first 25 minutes of the second half featured some of the best soccer played by a visiting team at Providence Park all season. Dallas were incisive, creative, but couldn’t find a goal despite outshooting Portland 11-2 in that span. Phil Neville’s substitutes began to work their magic, and the Timbers quickly shifted the momentum back in their direction. The defining moment of this match occurred in the 88th minute. Diego Chara played a through ball to Antony on the right wing, and the Brazilian crossed the ball into the box. Mora rose to hit it with an incredible bicycle kick, but Maurer punched it over the bar. The game ended 6 minutes later, and the Timbers are now winless in their last four games. 

The Drought 

The Portland Timbers haven’t scored a goal in 223 minutes of game time. During that period, they have created 4.48 expected goals (3.03 expected goals on target) and have taken a combined 50 shots. Are they snakebitten or are they inefficient? Maybe the excellent goalkeepers they have faced this week are playing a large part in this goal drought. However, the explanation is much simpler: a regression to the mean at the worst possible time. 

Expected goals never tell the whole story, but it is a useful stat when quantifying how clinical a team’s finishing has been. The Portland Timbers have the 4th-highest non-penalty xG differential in MLS this season (+10.3). They have also generated the 8th-most non-penalty expected goals in the league this season (47.7). Their attack is very good, but their finishing makes them elite. This is exactly what we saw over the past two games. The Timbers’ full strength attack created boatloads of chances but had trouble with finishing. It doesn’t really worry me at all. This team has proven that they will score goals, and they will score more goals. It’s just a shame that both of these frigid games came at the most crucial point in the season against two opponents who were either nearly or already dead. Soccer is a funny sport. After the Austin game, Phil Neville spoke about how the attack just needed to be sharper. Specifically, he used the term “credit in the bank.” Basically, he said that the attackers on this team have shown that they can score goals, and sometimes they just don’t. That same phrase was used by him today after their second consecutive scoreless match at home. The numbers back up his statement. No, it isn’t the thing that most fans want to hear right now, but he is right.  

Meanwhile, the Timbers were able to get a clean sheet! This is a perfect transition into today’s player ratings!

Player Ratings

James Pantemis: 9.5

Pantemis, not regular starter Maxime Crepeau, was the only change from Wednesday’s lineup. And he showed out in his first start since July 20th in Carson. He made 7 saves to keep the game tied at 0. It was another stellar outing from the team’s backup. The debate has been reignited, and today’s game has finally forced my hand. Time to weigh in with data.

Pantemis’ performance today has reinforced the belief that he is a better goalkeeper than Crepeau. Both goalkeepers are very good! However, the top priority for any goalkeeper is to stop shots. This is what Pantemis excels at, and where Crepeau struggles. Post-shot expected goal differential (PSxG) is the best stat to illustrate how good a goalkeeper is at stopping shots. James Pantemis ranks 13th in MLS in this category with a differential of +1.7. Crepeau, meanwhile, is 58th out of 62 qualified goalkeepers in MLS this year. His differential is -3.6. Now, there are some caveats to those numbers. They don’t take Leagues Cup or international play into account. Crepeau also has faced significantly more volume than Pantemis has this year (33.4 PSxG to Pantemis’ 17.7). But that volume discrepancy can be accounted for by PSxG per shot on target. This number averages out the total PSxG figure and divides it by the number of shots on target the goalkeeper has faced. Pantemis’ PSxG/SoT number of 0.37 is tied for the highest mark in the league with SKC’s Tim Melia and DC’s Alex Bono. Crepeau’s number (0.36) is tied for 4th-most with Philly backup Oliver Semmle. The numbers don’t lie: Pantemis is a better shot stopper for the Portland Timbers. Both keepers have their strengths and weaknesses. Advanced stats show that Crepeau is one of the best sweeper keepers in the league. Pantemis ranks in the middle of the pack in that category. I have been trying to hold my tongue in regards to this debate because I wanted to see Crepeau’s number improve throughout the season. But it hasn’t. At this crucial moment in Portland’s season, Pantemis is the better option between the sticks. But Crepeau is a player built for big matches, and the playoffs are right around the corner. His international resume speaks for itself. Phil Neville began his post-game press conference with high praise for his backup goalkeeper. “James Pantemis was f-, was unbelievable.” Neville was about to swear but caught himself before the full word escaped his mouth. “I think it deserved the F-word then,” he said right after. Agreed. But later in his press conference he answered a question about the decision to start Pantemis for this crucial, must-win game. “Max is the number one……James needs rhythm, he needs a game. This was his game. I think James’ form when he’s been in the team has been incredible. It’s not a slant on Max at all. We’ve got two outstanding goalkeepers.”

Maxime Crepeau is still Portland’s number one. This game will not change the pecking order. I don’t think that it’s a scenario where the team would lose games because the wrong goalkeeper was in net. But Crepeau needs to feel a bit of pressure on his back right now and rise to the occasion. He will be with the Canadian national team next week, and he needs to come back ready for the playoff push. His international form needs to translate to the Timbers. 

Clean sheets are like QB wins. Sure, the quarterback plays a huge part in whether or not his team can win a game, but it isn’t always in his control. The deflection that gave Austin the win on Wednesday wasn’t Crepeau’s fault, and he tried his best to keep it out. Today, Pantemis did keep a clean sheet, and it earned his team a point. 

Juan Mosquera: 8

Defense! Yay! Mosquera was excellent defensively today. He won both of his tackles, made four recoveries and won 5 of 8 attempted duels. His attacking contributions weren’t up to par today, but his primary duty is defense. Another good outing from a player who keeps getting better week after week. Mosquera also picked up his first yellow card of the season for dissent. Congratulations to him.

Kamal Miller: 6

It wasn’t a great day for Miller, who picked up a yellow card 5 minutes into the game. That booking is very significant because he is now suspended for the Decision Day game in Seattle. Not great. I thought it was an obvious foul, but not yellow-card worthy so early in the game. It put a damper on his play, and he got substituted in the 64th minute. 

Dario Zuparic: 9

Zuparic was superb apart from a couple of shaky moments in the second half. However, he filled up the stat sheet. 2 tackles, 2 blocks, 7 clearances (5 aerial), 4 interceptions, 2 recoveries, 9/12 duels won. That is a successful outing. And he could have scored the winner in stoppage time but his far-post header was cleared off the line. He is the Timbers’ best center back. No question.

Claudio Bravo: 8

Bravo has dealt with a fair amount of injuries this season, but he has been superb over the past week. The Timbers have been able to dominate games because of Bravo’s excellence. At his best, he is an elite two-way fullback in MLS. His ability to turn outstanding defense into instant offense is such an important part to this team. Even though he exited tonight’s match early, I believe that it was due to his recovering fitness after missing time due to injury. A fully healthy Bravo significantly raises the ceiling of this team.

Diego Chara: 8

He had one job today: don’t get booked. He succeeded! Great job Diego! The captain didn’t receive a yellow card and delivered another trademark Diego Chara performance. 

David Ayala: 7.5

Ayala’s tenacity was on full display today. Early in the first half, he shielded the ball in his own box under heavy pressure and was able to progress the ball out of trouble. He is a true gem and he keeps getting better with each game. However, he was a little wayward with his passing today. After playing a ton of soccer on Wednesday, the game called for Cristhian Paredes and Ayala was subbed out. It was the correct move.

Santiago Moreno: 8.5

It is no secret that I have been very critical of Moreno this season. But in the first half, he was the best attacker on the pitch. Yes, he only created one chance, but his ability to turn defense into attack is comparable to Bravo at his best. Moreno plays farther up the pitch (duh) so his defensive contributions are far more likely to turn into chances. However, his biggest technical fault is his finishing. The Timbers needed that finishing today, and he only hit the target with 1 of his 4 shots. Not great, but his overall contributions were superb before getting substituted in the 64th minute.

Jonathan Rodriguez: 7

5 shots, 1 on target. Like Wednesday, he wasn’t shooting early and often took extra touches that allowed defenders to crowd his shooting lanes. It wasn’t a bad performance from him, just a little underwhelming. I think it’s time to talk about the offsides rule. Rodriguez is usually hanging onto the last defender but sometimes he mistimes his runs. I like to think positively about this. The Timbers don’t have a winger who wants to get in behind and they haven’t had one before Rodriguez in several years. The team needs to look for his runs more and play him into space. 

Felipe Mora: 8

This was the hardest grade to come up with because Mora excelled at everything except shooting. As a striker, that is his primary duty. If he had managed to score one of his 4 shots, it would be a different story. His performance, even with only one goal, would have been worthy of a 10. But good Lord, he was unbelievable today. He drew 3 fouls, created 1 chance (and was a huge asset in buildup), completed 1 dribble, made 2 headed clearances, won all 6 of his duels, and drew 3 fouls. He impacted every area of the game and was ridiculously unlucky to score a goal. It took a brilliant fingertip save to deny him of a bicycle kick winner in the 88th minute. Mora has now entered a 4-game scoreless drought. It is tied for the longest stretch he has suffered this season. However, that previous streak included all 3 Leagues Cup games. He is such a crucial piece to Portland’s attack. He needs a goal more than anyone on the roster. 

Evander: 8.5

This is another tough grade to give. For most of this game, he was the MVP candidate that we all know he is. But during the opening part of the second half, he disappeared. That’s not his fault. In order for Evander to be effective (like most attacking midfielders) he needs to get the ball. Dallas began to press Portland and the Timbers were having trouble progressing the ball (sound familiar?). Evander sought to remedy that by dropping deeper into the midfield to get on the ball. In total, he created 7 chances. After the final whistle, he was presented with the Supporter’s Player of the Year by the Timbers Army. Many people noted that he didn’t look too thrilled to receive this award. Context is very important, people. The team just got shut out in consecutive home games. Of course he wouldn’t be happy about it. Everything he does is for the team, and the team failed to win another winnable game today. He was composed during his post-game press conference but you could tell that he was not happy about the way today’s game unfolded. In case you’re wondering where his head is at, I would like to direct you to his post-game press conference: “Of course we are pissed because of the last two games. We have a big game in Seattle and we’re fighting for the Cascadia Cup. We need to go there and win.” 

Final Whistle

The “credit in the bank” comment was the most notable quote from Phil Neville after Wednesday’s loss. Tonight’s quote was much more revealing: “There are some players that don’t have the attitude to play at this football club. That’s fine-they won’t play.”

Neville has developed a pattern during his press conferences. If he has something great to say about a player, he’ll mention their name. But if he isn’t happy with a player, he’s vague and speaks in a general tone. I think this quote is directed at a couple of players and is basically a way of telling them to get their s*** together. There is one game left until the playoffs, and any player who isn’t ready to contribute needs to get their head back in the game. A quote like this is practically begging for an overreaction, but I think the intended purpose is motivation, not demeaning.

The Timbers’ attack going cold at the worst possible time in the season is obviously less than ideal. Because the goals have dried up, the team is now in the throes of a 4-match winless streak. These performances have not warranted 4 games without a win. But they need to score more goals. In two weeks, they head to Seattle and there is a lot at stake.

Since the Timbers beat the Sounders on August 31st, the Seattle Sounders haven’t lost a single game. This run has propelled them into the top 4, and a win on Decision Day would clinch a CONCACAF Champions Cup spot. 

Meanwhile, the Portland Timbers can no longer escape the Wild Card Game. Either Minnesota or the Vancouver Whitecaps will await them a few days after Decision Day. Between those two, Vancouver is the best possible opponent to face. But the Whitecaps have a game in hand, and they will host LAFC next weekend to finally draw even on games played. Dale, dale, Black-and-Gold. The best possible result for the Timbers on Decision Day is a victory in Seattle (duh), a Minnesota victory against St. Louis, and a Whitecaps loss in Salt Lake City. If all three conditions are met, the Timbers will welcome Vancouver to town for the Wild Card Game. If Vancouver beats LAFC, the Timbers can no longer host the Wild Card Game. They will travel no matter what. The scenario stated above is still valid if the Whitecaps are victorious next Saturday. It is entirely possible that today’s scoreless draw is the last game played at Providence Park in 2024 (at least for the Timbers, don’t even get me STARTED on the Thorns). 

The Timbers had two huge chances to climb the table, and they dropped the ball both times. One last game at their home-away-from-home could clinch the Cascadia Cup and deliver a home playoff game to Portland. However, that opportunity is now completely out of their hands. They need help. The climb continues. 

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