CF Montreal-Portland Timbers Preview (10/6)

The Portland Timbers have the opportunity to clinch a playoff spot this weekend. In order to confirm their ticket, they must beat the Montreal Impact on Saturday (4:30 PM, Apple TV).

I must apologize. They’re not called the Montreal Impact anymore. Club de Foot Montreal (CF Montreal to avoid speaking French) entered MLS in 2012 after two decades of existence at lower levels of the sport. They’ve won 5 Canadian Cups and lost the 2015 CCL Final to Club America. In a league full of hyped fanbases, it’s absolutely wild that the Montreal supporters get very little love. Could be some anti-Canadian bias. They have a tradition of ringing a large bell, which is called “The North Star” for some reason. It is a bell, not a star. Why is the ball named after a star? I’m sure there is a legitimate reason for it, but it’s rubbing me the wrong way. The Timbers and the Impact haven’t played each other since 2019, when the Timbers lost 2-1 with a goal from Tomas Conechny. The Timbers are 2-2-4 against Montreal historically, and 2-0-3 against them in Montreal. Their last win at Stade Saputo came in 2015.

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CF Montreal had an excellent 2022 under Wilfried Nancy. Young players shone, the team played beautiful soccer, and they climbed up to 2nd in the East and 3rd in the Shield seemingly out of nowhere. However, they lost at home to NYCFC in the playoffs and then lost a ton of key contributors. Nancy became the new head coach in Columbus, Djordje Mihailovic, Ismael Kone and Alistair Johnson got moves abroad, and top striker Kei Kamara left for Chicago in free agency. Hernan Losada was brought in to steady the ship, and there weren’t enough additions to the team to keep them on the same trajectory. Romell Quioto has missed big chunks of the season with injury after leading the team with 15 goals in 2022. CB Kamal Miller was traded to Miami in April with AM Bryce Duke coming to Montreal in return. There’s a good amount of talent on this roster, but it isn’t at last season’s level. At this moment, Montreal sit in 8th in the Eastern Conference with an 11-5-16 record and 38 points. Their playoff spot is not safe, mostly due to the late season slide they’ve embarked on. They are in the middle of a 7-game winless streak, with 4 of those games being at home. That’s important. The Timbers’ road woes are well documented, but Montreal has been even worse. 

YIKES. Technically their top scorer is midseason acquisition Mahala Opoku, but he’s only scored 3 times for the club. Chinoso Offor and Mathieu Choiniere have four each. Obviously Quioto’s absence has been a death knell to their attack. They average 1 goal per game, which is 27th out of 29 teams in MLS. However, they have 11 clean sheets, which is 3rd in the league. The defense is the strongest part of the team, but it’s still not that good. However, you can’t count them out. After going down early at home against Houston on Wednesday, Lassi Lappalainen scored an equalizer with the last kick of the game to keep their playoff hopes alive. This is a team that might be tired but still has everything to play for.

Their injury report is pretty clean, but some of their key players might have tired legs. George Campbell, Joel Waterman, Zach Brault-Guillard, Quioto, and Choiniere played the full 90 on Wednesday. Like the Timbers, they have two weeks until their next match after Saturday’s game. It’s also a road trip to Columbus to face their former coach. This is their regular-season home finale, and they will be desperate to end their rotten run of form.

There’s only one DP on this roster, and it’s former Tottenham midfielder Victor Wanyama. He hasn’t started a game since September 20th against Cincy, and his last start before that was on July 12th. He needs to re-enter the XI in order for Montreal to have a chance. Lappalainen and Choiniere are their most dangerous players, and they should tilt the field towards Montreal’s left. Sirois has been a good keeper this season despite his age (22 years old). This is a team with nothing to lose and all the fight in the world.

The Portland Timbers also have a ton of fight. Since Miles Joseph took over, the team is 1-2-0 on the road. Both draws were comebacks, which is a massive departure from the team’s earlier woes away from home. Now they face a desperate Montreal team. The Timbers did get a full week of rest. On Thursday, the awards nominations were released:

I already dug into Zac McGraw’s case for Defender of the Year, and it’s a travesty that he wasn’t nominated. However, I think Felipe Mora’s case for Comeback Player of the Year is unbelievably strong. Eryk Williamson also puts in good work with the community. 

One other thing to touch on before I get to the XI. Tom Bogert of The Athletic released an article today about the status of the various coaching searches going on around the league (link here). Bogert reported the Phil Neville, Dome Torrent, Ezra Hendrickson, and Robin Fraser are among those in the final candidates list, which is believed to be 6-7 people. Miles Joseph is included in that list, and Bogert reports that the Timbers still want Joseph and Liam Ridgewell to remain at the club even if one of them doesn’t get the full-time job. When Gio got fired, I began to build my own list of coaches that the Timbers should be interviewing. All of the reported names were on that list except Phil Neville for obvious reasons (he’s a dick). I didn’t think Torrent would get a serious look, but he does have MLS experience. At this point, however, I believe it’s Joseph’s job to lose if the team makes the playoffs. I realize an internal promotion from this particular team is eyebrow-raising, but the results on the field aren’t lying. My full thoughts on the Timbers coaching search will be released after the season ends, but it’s worth noting that the team is doing their due diligence.

Moving on to the XI, the Timbers have made a trade with the injury report this week. Diego Chara and Evander are cleared to play, while Cristhian Paredes and Zac McGraw are both out. It is unclear how many minutes Diego and Evander will see, but at the very least they will be on the bench. 

One of the perks of having a pretty healthy squad is plenty of options to choose from. I only see 6 locked-in starters on this team: Bingham, Bravo, Zuparic, Moreno, Evander, Asprilla, and Mora. It is still unclear how much of a role Evander will have, but if he’s healthy enough to play he should start. I’m a little less sure about Diego Chara. Bryan Acosta has been great in his absence, and I think the coaching staff will err on the side of caution with Diego. I think Larrys Mabiala will start at center back in place of McGraw as well. The gap between Mosquera/Miller and Yimmi/Antony is very tight, but Yimmi hasn’t started since September 17th in Austin. Huge prove-it game for him, but Antony could still start over him. It’s still a strong XI, but Paredes and McGraw will surely be missed.

Time to delve into a tactical preview, and I’m going to start it off with a heatmap from the last Timbers game. Which player is this?

That’s right, it’s Juan Mosquera! When the Timbers have the ball, Mosquera moves closer to the middle of the pitch (the technical term for this is “inverting”). This is great when the Timbers have the ball. When they lose it, he tends to get caught out of position. It was evident in the Galaxy game. LA targeted Mosquera’s side of the pitch and it led to 3 goals in the first half. This is not a new wrinkle introduced by Miles Joseph. Gio was also experimenting with this (look at Tigres’ first goal in the Leagues Cup match for further evidence) but Joseph’s big change was pushing Bingham up in between the center backs. It’s a good change, but it is something that Montreal’s strong left side can exploit. Dairon Asprilla, Santiago Moreno, and Mosquera will have their work cut out for them. Felipe Mora is in excellent form right now. He’s scored in 3 of the past 4 games and notched a second assist last week against the Galaxy. As his health increases, so does the quality of the Timbers’ attack. Montreal has been leaking goals (9 allowed in the past 4 games) so the Timbers will need to keep up their excellent attacking progress in the past month. McGraw’s absence opens the door for Larrys Mabiala to start in his place. Mabiala’s previous start in the past month (LAFC home) came alongside McGraw. However, he has plenty of experience alongside Dario Zuparic, so I’m not as worried as I probably should be. There are some things they need to look out for, but it’s a 7-game unbeaten streak coming up against a 7-game winless streak. The pressure is on both sides to deliver, and this isn’t a cakewalk.

There’s a lot of mathing I could do, but the clinching scenario is rather simple: win the game. I’m going to delve into seeding possibilities ahead of the Houston game (provided this result allows me to do so). The Timbers should also be aiming to climb as high as they can, and that means avoiding the 8th or 9th seeds. Yes, if we get the 8th seed we would host the play-in game. But why risk it if the 7 seed or even the ⅚ seeds are available for the taking? The locker room doesn’t care about the seeding possibilities. They just want to win tomorrow and get in. That’s the same position I’m going to take.

With such a clear goal in mind, the Timbers are hitting the road with the aim of coming home with a playoff berth. It’s what the squad deserves following such a excellent past month under Miles Joseph. Such a simple goal has easily united the locker room, and they could accomplish that goal tomorrow. Then the focus turns to the gauntlet of the playoffs. But they can’t think too far ahead. The team opposite them has the same goal even though they have the exact inverse form. Time to take care of business.

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