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Colorado Rapids-Portland Timbers Preview (3/22)

An early season game at altitude, and a chance to gain some confidence away from home.

“There was a lot of confidence coming out of the game against the LA Galaxy but also a lot of anger and frustration as well,” Phil Neville said during Thursday’s pre-match press conference. “I think we’ve seen that channeled this week, we’ve had to move on from the Galaxy game.” Well, folks, the Portland Timbers are angry. They will take that anger and frustration to Colorado this weekend to face one of MLS’ last remaining unbeaten teams.

The Rapids Report

These two teams previously met on September 14th in Commerce City with major playoff implications on the line. The Rapids took the lead in the 14th minute, but the Timbers equalized ten minutes later. However, the hosts snagged the winner through Rafael Navarro off of a set piece in the 71st minute. This could have been a launchpad for the plucky ‘Pids, but they only won 1 of their final 8 games of 2024. That victory came against Toronto, who were not good last year and are still not good this year. That cold stretch included a two-game series loss to the eventual champions in the first round. Across both games, they were outscored 9-1 on aggregate. However, even though the end of the season was brutal, 2024 was a huge success for the Colorado Rapids. Under first-year head coach Chris Armas, they finished with 50 points. That’s a massive improvement from their pitiful 2023, which ended with 27 points (5 points clear of the Wooden Spoon). While laying the groundwork for future success, they returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2021. That turnaround also included an excellent Leagues Cup run. Well, you wouldn’t know how good their Leagues Cup run was based on a 4-0 demolition at the hands of Portland in the group stage. Following that beatdown, Colorado beat four straight Liga MX sides (including double champions Club America in Carson) before LAFC sent them back to Earth with another 4-0 loss in the semifinal. However, they beat Philly on penalties in the third-place game, and booked a spot in the 2025 CONCACAF Champions’ Cup.

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Colorado strengthened during the offseason, especially at their biggest position of need: center back. And it only took one transaction to do so! FC Cincinnati was in a salary cap crunch, and needed to offload some players. In came the Rapids, who offered an initial $1M GAM (rising to $1.2M if performance metrics are met) for BOTH Chidoze Awaziem and Ian Murphy. That is a hall-of-fame caliber deal from Padraig Smith. This began their offseason theme of acquiring players from within the league. Once the cash market opened, the Rapids began to take full advantage. First came Ted Ku-DiPietro, a former DC United winger who came from their academy. His acquisition cost $1.125M in cold hard cash. But despite the introduction of cash for MLS players, the Rapids dug back into the GAM well and handed the Seattle Sounders up to $1.6M of allocation money for midfielder Josh Atencio. There are some Seattle players that I have a soft spot for. Jordan Morris, for example, never scores against the Timbers and has recovered from two ACL tears. Plus, he occupies a DP slot, limits Seattle’s roster construction, and infuriates people whose sole emotional investment is in the USMNT. He has definitely grown on me over the past couple of seasons. Not that I like him or anything, but he doesn’t piss me off like other current Sounders. Atencio also falls into that category. This poor guy never broke into the starting lineup until the stretch run of 2023. He entered 2024 as a starter but was usurped by Obed Vargas. As 2025 approached, word out of Longacres was that Atencio was being trained at center back. That’s ridiculous. His brother lives in Denver, and it seemed very logical for the Rapids to acquire a player that can be a long-term starter at the base of their midfield.

Colorado’s season began with a 2-1 victory against LAFC in CONCACAF play. What followed was two league draws (STL (A) and Dallas (H)) and a loss in the second leg of Champions’ Cup to LAFC. However, the Rapids won their next two games on the road, helping them to a 2-2-0 start and the 4th seed in the West. Their biggest improvement has been on the defense, but it has been exemplified by a second-year ‘Pid who was signed with lofty expectations. I gave Zack Steffen a fair amount of grief last year. That stick was warranted as he finished 2024 with the lowest PSxG (post-shot expected goals) differential in the entire league. Through 4 games in 2025, he has the third-best, including a masterclass performance last weekend in San Jose that almost single-handedly secured a road win for the Rapids. Navarro is Colorado’s top scorer with 3 goals. Last year, the Rapids were heavily reliant on penalties. However, all six of their goals in 2025 have come from open play. Their strength of schedule is a bit of a question mark, but it’s early in the season and they simply haven’t lost a game yet. You can only play the teams on your schedule, after all.

COL Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Wayne Frederick and Zack Steffen are on international duty. Ted Ku-DiPietro, Sam Vines, and Jackson Travis are all out due to injury.

The biggest change for the Rapids will be 18-year-old goalkeeper Adam Beaudry making his second start for the first team. Elsewhere, the backline should remain the same as last week and Atencio is off the injury report. That clears him to start at the base of Colorado’s midfield with Bassett and Larraz playing as twin 8s. Mihailovic has been utilized as a playmaker off the left wing, while a more direct player occupies the right. My pick is Calvin Harris, who scored the winner in San Jose last weekend.

The Timbers Report

Looking purely at the box score, you’d think that the Timbers were lucky to earn a point against the Galaxy. However, the eye test differs. The Timbers had their chances (most of them half-chances) but still put in a somewhat solid performance against a weakened Galaxy team. The team might have moved on, but I haven’t. Let’s go back over last weekend’s box score, including some further evidence about how disastrous that non-penalty call was.

Neither team was able to accumulate more than 1 total expected goal throughout the game. This has been pretty on-brand for the 2025 Timbers, who haven’t surpassed that total in any of their first four games. Probably because they have taken the second-fewest shots in MLS so far. I hate to label this as such, but it’s a symptom of playing scared. Not because I think that the Timbers are actively deciding not to score goals, but they aren’t too keen on taking risks. They have the fewest passes into the penalty area in the league. That stat is coupled with the 3rd-fewest progressive passes. When taking progressive carries into account, the Timbers are not very good at creating chances. Now they head to Colorado and will face an 18-year old goalkeeper. This might seem like another opportunity to work on their possession patterns, but this is an opportunity to literally shoot their shots. Although they are still trying to figure out each other’s tendencies, scoring goals and winning on the road is far more important. The long-term ideals can take a backseat tomorrow night.

One last bit about the non-penalty call. Each penalty kick is assigned an xG value of 0.8. Ariel Lassiter’s shot (aka the “supremely valuable advantage”) was valued at 0.09 xG. So a penalty kick would have been approximately nine times more valuable than the chance Lassiter missed. Unreal.

PTFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Miguel Araujo, Maxime Crepeau, and Ariel Lassiter are on international duty. Jonathan Rodriguez is still out, but Juan Mosquera’s status has been upgraded to questionable. On Thursday, Neville said that Mosquera’s injury involves a patellar tendon and gave a timeline of “10 days to 2 weeks.”

This lineup picks itself. I’m only predicting one change from last week’s game, and it’s the return of Dario Zuparic in place of Finn Surman. Like it or not (personally, I’m a bit conflicted given how good the Kiwi has been) this is an optimal place to give Zuparic his first start (and playing time) of the season. Am I very confident that Zuparic will start tomorrow? No, but it makes sense. Given the altitude, subs will be very important. Portland’s attacking depth has been further compromised by Lassiter’s absence. I think Kyle Linhares will get a short-term loan and could make his first-team debut tomorrow.

Tactical Preview

The Long Ball

In 3 out of their 4 games, the Timbers have been undone by long balls over the top. Since Neville has spoken about how much they need to improve in this aspect, I don’t think that the high line will go away. The Rapids have attempted the ninth-most long balls in the league, and I bet they’re licking their lips at Portland’s ineffective long ball defense. Any success the Timbers will have against Colorado’s aerial assault will come down to anticipating instead of reacting. Simple as that.

The First Half

Building off the stat from the Nashville game, the Timbers have now been outscored 16-7 in the first half of road games under Neville’s stewardship. Not optimal. Tomorrow’s first half will be about organization and risk-taking. Those traits seem counter-intuitive, I know, but the Timbers need to be organized at the back and take more risks in the attack. Defensively, they need to keep track of a Colorado team that is very fluid positionally. Tracking runners and keeping shape will be very important. Meanwhile, when they counter, they have to fully commit. The Rapids, despite their record, aren’t solid defensively. Portland’s pace (particularly Antony, who has 4 goals in 4 matches against Colorado) is begging to be unleashed on the break. You can’t win on the road by playing it safe in the attack. They have to go for it, particularly in the first half. Striking that balance between an organized defense and an intense counterattack will be the key to a Timbers victory.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: not posted

Spanish: not posted

Home radio broadcast on 750 The Game: not available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 6:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Jair Marrufo’s 2025 stats: 2 games, 22.5 fouls/game, 0 penalties/game, 3.5 yellows/game, 0 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: May 19th, 2024 2-1 L @MIN

Series History

Historical record: 14-7-11, +4 goal differential

Last year’s record: 2-0-1, +6 goal differential

Away record: 3-5-9, -14 goal differential

Final Whistle

Given Portland’s poor away record in Colorado and their poor away record in general, I’m not expecting the Timbers to win tomorrow. What I am looking for is a competitive performance that builds on the first half against the Galaxy. They’ve been angry all week. If they start hot, a win could come. A sluggish start is just more of the usual. Be different. Throw the first (figurative) punch. And if there’s blood in the water, keep on punching. The climb continues.