High Tide

The streak is over. For the first time since August 2021, the Seattle Sounders have defeated the Portland Timbers.

Portland grabbed the lead 15 minutes in when a Dario Zuparic long ball found Jonathan Rodriguez, who chested it to Felipe Mora to slot home. That was a quality goal. Four minutes later, Seattle responded after Cristian Roldan’s shot took a deflection and bypassed Maxime Crepeau. More on that later. Both teams traded chances in the remainder of the first half, but no one could break the deadlock.

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The second half began with a moment of magic from Raul Ruidiaz. He curled the ball to the far post with his weak foot and gave Seattle a 2-1 lead. The Timbers responded by not responding. They continued to work the ball around Seattle’s half, including some incredulous giveaways, but they didn’t register a shot on target until the 80th minute, when a left-footed Santiago Moreno effort was easily caught by Stefan Frei. Nothing else of note occurred afterwards, and the Timbers’ 3rd straight loss was in the books. It is also their 9th straight game without a win. 

Phil Neville said that there would be changes ahead of this game, and there actually was a formation change in the starting XI.

I was pretty intrigued to see how Jonathan Rodriguez and Felipe Mora would play together as twin strikers. Well, there were positives and there were negatives. That goal wouldn’t have been possible without both players up top. They did a good job of recognizing each other’s space. Both strikers also contributed positively to the press. However, they weren’t able to connect with the wingers or the fullbacks. But in the first half, the 4-4-2 was solid. The Timbers played with some intensity (not a lot) and I think a two-striker look can be implemented with both of these players. However, Evander should not be a part of that double pivot, so they probably can’t play a 4-4-2 with their star on the pitch. There are other ways to get both Rodriguez and Mora up top without a 4-4-2, and it might be a look that Neville and the coaching staff implement in the near future.

Before the game started, I said that the key to this game was finding the first goal. So you can imagine my happiness when the Timbers broke the deadlock. Roldan’s equalizer is suspicious for one reason. The deflection it takes is off of Jordan Morris, who was in an offside position after the shot. By all accounts, this goal should have been offside. And yet, it occurs 19 minutes into this game, allowing Portland PLENTY OF TIME to regain the lead. Not all referees are perfect. Allen Chapman certainly isn’t. But I’m willing to let this missed call slide purely because of how much time is left in the game. This isn’t the first decision to go against the Timbers this year, as Phil Neville pointed out in his post-game press conference. But that decision pales in comparison to the missed penalty call at the end of the Vancouver game, which actually did change the result of that match (which was also overseen by Chapman). There is 71 minutes plus stoppage time for the Timbers to recover. They are playing at home against their biggest rivals in a must-win game, and you can’t hang on a call from the 19th minute as a reason that you lost. Yes, in a perfect world that goal is waived off, but it’s no excuse. Not getting a shot on target in 65 minutes of game time is far, far worse than one bad call. Chapman had another typical Chapman game: calling the non-fouls as fouls and letting the physicality get out of hand. Given that the Timbers have the 7th-highest shot-creating actions per 90 from fouls, they were kind of counting on him to get the calls right today. That’s no way to run an attack. 

There is something seriously wrong with this attack, and two parties are to blame: the coaches and the players. Let’s start with the players, because they are the ones on the field in charge of scoring goals. Most of the second half was played in Seattle’s half of the pitch. In that time, the Timbers had 65% possession and took a lousy four shots. None of those shots came from inside the box. Neville described their struggles in post-game, saying that the team was too “accepting” of their position. I’ve been screaming to the high heavens about this attack, and today was the biggest piece of evidence I can find. The only unit that actually showed up today was the defense. More on that later. But this attack is a collection of 5-6 different players who are playing like individuals. There’s no imagination, there’s no will to shoot, and as a result there are no goals. Zuparic, Rodriguez, and Mora combined to create a wonderful moment, but this team WAS PLAYING AT HOME AGAINST THEIR BIGGEST RIVAL! There should be more than just one singular moment that results in a massive chance! Neville also talked about the commitment of several players post-game. This was an incredibly winnable game against a Seattle team that was absolute dogshit. Yes, this Seattle team is still absolutely terrible. 2 goals scored from 0.44 xG, and their only three shots inside the box were either blocked or saved. The Timbers did not recover from that questionable equalizer, and that’s what lost them this game. There was no urgency in the second half. Just acceptance. 

But on the other side, coaching does play a significant factor. Neville wants his players to have a killer instinct and push as hard as they can to put the ball in the net. Are these players a good fit for Neville’s brand of soccer? Well, it’s been 12 games into the season, and I can’t really find a single distinctive characteristic of Neville-ball aside from wanting to build from the back. Ironically, building from the back is not the biggest problem. The Timbers can create good chances from deep, but they’re a complete mess around the box. Today, they dominated the middle third in possession, but they couldn’t create chances from the attacking third. Seattle parked the bus after taking the lead, which is the correct move for a team that has gone ahead on the road and struggling to score. In order for this attack to begin firing on a consistent basis, there must be some structure besides “cross it into the box.” There was one big chance for Antony in the first half, but his finish couldn’t find the target. That chance came from a counterattack. The spacing in the attack is so weird, and that’s something that coaching can fix. Instead of “free rein for everybody,” it’s time to implement some structure. When the team has the 4th-lowest shot-creating actions per 90 in MLS, something definitely has to change. 

Time to talk about the players, and I’m going to start with the bad. It has been a rough stretch for Antony, and today he gave up right before being subbed off. The ball was turned over, and he wasn’t hustling back to defend the onrushing Seattle attackers. I don’t really have much to say outside of that. Seattle kept double-teaming him when he was on the ball, and I thought that his ineffectiveness (combined with that missed chance) was enough to remove him at halftime. That substitution didn’t happen.

Santiago Moreno is such an interesting player. He has tons of technical ability but his decision-making is so poor it can render that skill completely useless. I thought he was on his game for the first half, but when the team needed him most he disappeared. I’m going to pose a question that will be asked several more times throughout this article: is Santi’s performance a bigger indictment of his own skill or his role in the team (secondary creator)?

I thought Cristhian Paredes was incredibly unlucky to be subbed out. With him on the pitch the Timbers’ midfield had some extra bite. He’s definitely a player that plays for the badge, and I was happy with his contributions today.

Jonathan Rodriguez is the “rod of controversy” for today’s match. He played alongside Mora as a striker in the first half, but became ineffective when Evander came on and he was pushed out to the wing. He is a goalscorer, and goalscorers need service. There was no service for him today aside from Zuparic’s pass and one well-worked corner kick routine. He looked better in the 4-4-2 than he did on the left. In order to get the best of their marquee signing, the coaching staff is going to have to tweak some things.

Diego Chara was honored in a pregame ceremony after setting a new record for most MLS regular season matches played for one club two weeks ago in Los Angeles. Today, he was up to his usual tricks. I don’t need to say too much about his performance because it speaks for itself. Build the statue.

Eric Miller never looks fully comfortable at left back, but he put in a solid shift today. He doesn’t offer what Claudio Bravo does going forward, but I’m pretty OK with his contributions. I’m very happy that the Timbers brought him back in the offseason.

Felipe Mora got the goal, and did some excellent defensive work as well. He also got hacked to bits with very little punishment from the referee. That’s where most of my refereeing angst comes from. No referee in a Portland-Seattle match can tell the difference between a flopping fish and an actual foul, and Allen Chapman was no different. But Mora did what he could, even if there were never any additional players offering help whenever he was holding up the ball. He was a victim of the disjointed attack, but he did get another goal against Seattle.

Juan Mosquera had a solid game. He roamed forward but was also able to recover in time to stop attacks. His delivery wasn’t great, but I think it was a symptom of the larger problem with the attack. He didn’t exactly shine, but he did a good job. 

What more does Maxime Crepeau have to do? He can’t be blamed for Ruidiaz’s goal and he definitely shouldn’t be blamed for a goal that shouldn’t have counted. His rough start in a Timbers jersey continues, and now there are some calls to start James Pantemis over him. I am a giant fan of King Pants, but if he starts this game the Timbers still lose 2-1.

Kamal Miller and Dario Zuparic combine for my Man of the Match. It is no surprise to me that they had an excellent game after what they did in Houston. If the Timbers are intent on playing in a back four (which might not be the best route forward) Kamal and Zuparic have to be the first-choice pairing. Kamal won all four of his ground duels and completed the most passes in the match. Zuparic stuffed the stat sheet as well, winning 5 out of 8 combined duels while also making 7 recoveries. Both of them woke up today. Despite conceding two goals (one of which shouldn’t have stood and the other was a moment of brilliance) I came away from this match impressed with their partnership the most.

Neville’s post-game press conferences are becoming must-watch TV, and he was brimming with quotables after this one. So I’m going to go through the ones that stuck with me the most and give some additional thoughts on them.

 “The one thing I’m absolutely convinced of is that we will get this right.” 

I don’t know if tweaks can solve what has transpired throughout these past 9 games. I have seen a team that looks great, a team that looks good, a team that looks lazy, and a team that just looks bad at several points throughout this now-record 9-game winless streak. Some actual tactical and personnel changes have to occur to get the team out of this freefall. 

“Today was our bounce-back game. Today was the game where we had to show something different than what we have over the last 8 games…. Today, at this moment in time, I can’t feel a positive because of the result.” 

Today was supposed to be the bounce-back game, and BOY was it anything but a bounce-back. Prior to this match, in the previous 8 times that the Timbers scored the first goal against Seattle they had a record of 7-1-0. I was stressing how important it was to get the first goal, and the team couldn’t recover from allowing an equalizer FOUR MINUTES after taking the lead. Yes, the goal shouldn’t have counted, but GOOD GOD! YOU ARE AT HOME! YOU ARE PLAYING YOUR BIGGEST RIVALS! A TEAM THAT YOU HAVE DOMINATED IN RECENT YEARS! HOW CAN THIS TEAM FULL OF PLAYERS WHO HAVE BEEN ON THE ROSTER FOR SEVERAL SEASONS NOT FIGHT BACK AFTER ONE CALL DOESN’T GO THEIR WAY? But Neville is also right here, because the Timbers did show something different than what we have seen over the last 8 games. They failed to get a result after scoring the first goal. In this 9-game unbeaten stretch, today’s match is the only time that the Timbers have failed to get a result after taking a lead. I hope that Neville can see the few positives from today’s game and build on them, because they will be CRUCIAL to this team climbing back out of this hole. But losing any game, especially a rivalry game in your home stadium, is completely unacceptable. This Sounders team is bad. They continued to struggle in the attacking third, and it took one illegal goal and one black-magic goal to beat an awful Timbers team. This could be the best win of Seattle’s season. That’s how broken this Sounders team is. And it shows just how bad the 2024 Timbers truly are. 

“I’ve got to select the right team on Wednesday. There are players that are in good moments and there are players that are not in good moments and we’ve got to pick eleven players who want to play for this football club…I’m finding out every single week those that want to be with us and those that don’t want to be with us….I think that there are too many people in this team that are cruising and that think they are doing well and think they’re OK but they’re not and enough’s enough.”

This is almost a carbon copy of Neville’s remarks after the loss to Charlotte. However, I think he’s bumping up against a poorly constructed roster and can only change so much personnel-wise. Let’s begin with today’s starter at left back: Eric Miller. Miller is a good player. He’s an excellent guy to have in the locker room and on the field. Is he spectacular? No. But he doesn’t need to be spectacular when he shows up every day and does his job to the best of his ability. Phil’s quote doesn’t apply to him. But with Claudio Bravo unavailable, the head coach has had to get creative with possible left backs. In order to build a good MLS roster, players have to be able to play different positions. Bravo is the only true left-back on the team. So during Bravo’s absences this year, players like Antony, Dairon Asprilla, and Kamal Miller have had to shift over to left back. This is not Phil’s fault. He’s trying to work in an impossible situation. I didn’t give Dairon his own paragraph earlier, but I was begging for him to enter at halftime for Antony. Neville didn’t do it, and opted to replace Antony with Evander in the 55th minute. That’s all cool and good, but Dairon Asprilla lives for any game against the Seattle Sounders. So why didn’t he see the field from the beginning? Well, in Phil’s mind, he needed a left back in case he needed to remove Miller from the game. Sure enough, that’s where Dairon entered today’s game. I know he wouldn’t complain about it, but it’s a serious oversight from the front office to allow this position to be completely ignored in the offseason. My personal choice would have been to slide Kamal Miller over to left back and put either Zac McGraw or Larrys Mabiala in as a center back. But the head coach is still trying to fix some of these failures in roster construction. Dairon did what he could, and did provide some extra push in the attack, but it just wasn’t enough. Sigh. Neville isn’t blameless here either. He had the opportunity to change around his personnel and his tactics and instead the Timbers are chasing an equalizer at home to their biggest rivals and Dairon Asprilla is playing left back. I’ll get to the “players that are cruising” later.

“The drive to go beyond your capabilities, the drive to come out of your comfort zone and push yourself and the rest of the team. Not just play it simple and safe….What we saw in that second half is exactly what I’ve seen every single day. A team that’s comfortable. A team that apart from Chara lacks that drive at this moment in time…Two or three players had that drive, but the rest were just accepting of the situation. That’s what frustrated me. We were too acceptant just to get beat in a derby game. That’s what I can’t stand.”

This winless streak has reached 9 games, which is now a Timbers record. And Neville is spot on in this assessment. Do you know what the number one indicator of a team that cares is? SHOOTING THE BALL. In this second half, no one wanted to try even ONE speculative effort. No one wanted to take on defenders and try to pull off something outrageous to give the team a chance of tying this game. If you shoot, there are a million things that can happen even if you don’t score. That ball can bounce off defenders and go out of bounds, which results in either a throw-in or (more likely) a corner kick. You can force a save out of the opposing goalkeeper, which can result in a rebound attempt or another corner kick. You can hit the post, and anything can happen when you hit the post. The Timbers were unwilling to introduce chaos into this game, even if it meant that they would lose at home to their biggest rival. You know who wasn’t afraid to try something speculative? Raul FUCKING Ruidiaz, the tiny Peruvian who never backs down whenever he’s playing the Timbers. HAS ANYONE EVER SEEN HIM TRY A CURLER WITH HIS WEAK FOOT FROM THE TOP OF THE BOX? EVER? GUESS WHAT? HE DID IT! HE ACTUALLY DECIDED TO SPECULATE AND HIS OWN PURE AUDACITY WON THIS GAME FOR THE SEATTLE SOUNDERS! As for the players who Neville referenced as “having that drive,” I can only think of four attackers outside of the aforementioned Diego Chara (he isn’t an attacker but he did get mentioned). The first is left-back Dairon Asprilla. The second was Juan Mosquera, even though he wasn’t fully accurate with all of his crosses. You could tell that Evander wasn’t at 100%, but he was at least trying to make things happen. Felipe Mora was begging for players to make runs for him as he hopelessly held up the ball, but none came. TWO OF THOSE FOUR WERE PLAYING AS ACTUAL ATTACKERS. Kamal Miller and Dario Zuparic also fall into this category, and Kamal even carried the ball to the edge of the penalty area in the final minutes while probably thinking, “Fuck it, I’ll do it myself.” Phil, you have to send a message to these guys. Some starters from today were also starters against Charlotte. Actions speak louder than words.

“One thing has to turn. We have to get a decision. The first goal is offside for them. I watched the Colorado game last night; 2 VAR decisions. We have to start getting these decisions. Don’t care who the referee is. The referee today was good or bad. It doesn’t matter, but we have to start getting these decisions as a football club. It’s too easy for these decisions to keep going against us. Once, I can accept. Two, OK three, four, five, six times it becomes a real problem because that affects confidence. We go up in the game, where I thought we started a little bit nervously. We scored and that gave us a little bit of confidence. And then it was a clear offside goal. The guy (Jordan Morris) stood in front of the keeper and he’s clearly interfering with play. Now if we can’t see that, then we’ve got a problem. So that has to change, and it will. In life the tide does turn. So the first thing I’ll say is that the tide will turn in terms of the results that we’re not getting and some of the decisions we’re not getting are diabolical but that will turn for us.”

First of all, as a writer, the word “diabolical” is used perfectly here. So far the Timbers have played two rivalry matches in 2024, and both of them have included very controversial calls. The common denominator is the center ref: Allen Chapman. That Vancouver game wasn’t very controversial until Chapman waived off an obvious penalty on Jonathan Rodriguez. That is the definition of a result-changing call. Right at the end of the game, and an obvious foul, but it just got ignored. Chapman did an awful lot of ignoring today. Earlier, I said that the illegal goal didn’t really bug me that much because there was so much game left. My stance has both changed and stayed the same. This is the first match the Timbers have played at home in a month. These players should be able to pick their heads up and try to take back the lead. I don’t buy the confidence excuse that much, but at the same time it is relevant because of the lengthy winless streak. In recent Portland-Seattle games, the ticky-tack foul calls favor the Sounders (BECAUSE EVERY PORTLAND-SEATTLE REFEREE CAN’T TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN ACTUAL FOUL AND A FLOPPING FISH), but the big decisions favor the Timbers. Let’s go back to July 2022 and the parachute game. There was a pretty serious shout for a penalty on Josecarlos Van Rankin (THAT’S A VAN RANKIN REFERENCE YOU OWE ME A PAID SUBSCRIPTION) in the first half. The Timbers were already ahead 1-0, but the referee (Chris Penso) waived it off. From a neutral lens, that should have been a penalty. We all know what happened next. Jackson Ragen received a second yellow card right out of halftime, and the hosts had to play with 10 men. Portland got their second after VAR awarded a penalty following a Nouhou handball. That decision was far less controversial, but it probably tasted like rotten shrimp to the Seattle faithful. Portland won 3-0 against The Greatest Team You’ve Ever Seen. Now we skip forward a month with the Cascadia Cup on the line. Yeimar has given the Sounders the lead after heading home a free kick, and there are some protests from the Timbers that the goalscorer used Dario Zuparic as leverage to jump higher in the air. That’s a borderline call for me, but I can see why the Timbers were upset. The moment of controversy came right before halftime, when Eryk Williamson was driving into the box and was halted by Yeimar. Williamson goes to the ground, and the referee (Ismail Elfath) points to the penalty spot. Noted homer Kasey Keller is on the call for ESPN, and he is absolutely incredulous that Elfath has awarded this penalty. This is a classic case of insufficient evidence. This call cannot be overturned if Elfath does or doesn’t blow the whistle. Upon closer inspection, Williamson looks like he might have dived, but you can’t positively prove it. The penalty is awarded, Dairon Asprilla steps up, and this game is 1-1 at halftime. Sebastian Blanco gets the winner in the second half, and the Timbers lift the Cascadia Cup in front of their home fans. Our next match-changing decision occurs just over a year later at the Lumen Library. Leo Chu scored in the first half to make the game 2-0, and he took off his shirt to celebrate. That is illegal, and referee Jon Freemon shows him a yellow card. Understandable. In the second half, Chu is chasing down a loose ball and collides with Zac McGraw. Freemon shows Chu his second yellow card, and he goes to the locker room. Color commentator PHIL NEVILLE thinks that the decision is harsh, but it is a bang-bang play and the contact was pretty rough. On the replay, it looks like Chu’s forward momentum has caused him to overcommit and contact with McGraw is inevitable. Is it a true second yellow? Well, Chu had committed 3 fouls up to that point, and the shirt removal doesn’t count as one. You could make the case for persistent infringement, but it is a pretty harsh call. The Timbers score twice against the 10-man Sounders and keep their unbeaten streak at the Fishbowl alive. Given the balance of these game-changing calls against the Sounders, the tide actually turned back towards them in this match. And this time, it was Allen Chapman’s turn to embody the spirit of the ocean. I would like to draw your attention to the 54th minute, when noted piss artist Nouhou was charging down the left side of the pitch. Diego Chara wins the ball, but a small scuffle ensues between the Sounders’ left back and Juan Mosquera. Mosquera is signaling to the referee that Nouhou grabbed his throat, but VAR doesn’t ask for a closer look. The sea is a stubborn place, and the tide continues to roll in Seattle’s favor. There is another potential penalty on Rodriguez in today’s game, but Chapman is guiding these waves to routinely crash against the Timbers, who are now almost fully submerged. Yes, Phil, some of these decisions are absolutely diabolical, but this is only your first Portland-Seattle game. And the Timbers found themselves in the middle of a long-overdue high tide. The timing is horrific, but the ocean simply doesn’t give a shit. It neither feels nor cares, and just keeps on hammering down. 

Now that the ocean has the Timbers firmly in their grasp, the tide is starting to go out. And the aftermath is absolutely horrific.

After Matchday 1, the Portland Timbers held the top spot in this table. 11 weeks later, they have sunk to the bottom. Many of these teams above them are beatable, but that’s only on paper. The Timbers, in many ways, have been built on paper. Trees are used to make paper, and right now so many of these players are playing like individual sheets. There is talent all over this roster. We have seen flashes of that talent in 2024. But in order for this tree to grow, every single person involved with this club has to find the solutions to the numerous problems poisoning this promising tree. Portland must play two more games this week. The first is at home to a San Jose team that has never tasted victory at Providence Park. The second is a trip to Minnesota; a place where the Timbers have never won. In order to begin the salvage of this devastating apocalypse, the Timbers need to keep the first streak intact while breaking the second one in unforgettable fashion. Technically, the Timbers are only 6 points out of a playoff spot with plenty of soccer to be played. But every game from here until Leagues Cup is a must-win match. Today was supposed to be a must-win match, and the Timbers accepted a loss to their biggest rivals on their home field. The time for excuses is over. Only victories can save this tree.

*Can we talk about Tillamook for a second? How about that for a new kit sponsor reveal! At least one good thing came out of today.*

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