Leagues Cup: St. Louis CITY-Portland Timbers Preview (8/9)

After winning their group, the Portland Timbers are traveling to St. Louis for their Leagues Cup Round of 32 tie.

The Rules and Why They’re Dumb

Here is what the knockout stage for Leagues Cup looks like after group play ended. This is what it looked like when the tournament started.

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Each group winner will be matched up with a runner-up from another group. That’s perfectly fine. That’s how tournaments around the world are structured. What makes this tournament special is the unconstitutional awarding of home-field advantage. 

On the surface, this makes sense. If a MLS team has a fixture against a Liga MX team in the group stage (unless that team is Club America, Monterrey, Chivas, or Tigres; hereby known as the “Chosen Four” for brevity) they will host the game with the Mexican team acting as the home team if their seeding is higher. This is what happened during the Leon game. Since no Leagues Cup games will be played in Mexico (that’s dumb) the highest seeded MLS team in each group (unless you’re one of the Chosen Four) will host both of their group stage games. Because the Timbers had a higher seed than the Colorado Rapids, their group stage fixture was at home. But since the knockout stage still follows this same formula, group winners could have to travel if they are matched up against a higher-seeded MLS team. That’s very dumb! It ends up decreasing the stakes of the group stage and de-incentivizes teams that win their group. The Timbers won both of their games and now have to travel for their Round of 32 game. They are not the only ones. The Galaxy, Austin, and Toronto are also going on the road for their Round of 32 game despite topping their group. There are seven Round of 32 games that feature two MLS teams. Four out of those seven involve the group winners going on the road. I think that’s hog shit. To combat this injustice and breach of federal law, I am proposing a solution for next year’s edition of this tournament: if you win your group, you are allowed to host your Round of 32 game. For every other round of the tournament, hosting privileges are decided by the seeding table. This is both logical and fair. It rewards teams for winning their group in the round right after the group stage ends. 

This rule would also apply to the Chosen Four. Monterrey and Chivas got eliminated in the group stage this year, but they would have to sacrifice their hub privilege in the Round of 32 if they advanced in second place. Other Liga MX teams that win their group should be able to “host” a Round of 32 game to erase the advantage that MLS teams get if they finish second but face a Liga MX team in the next round. This part of the plan is more convoluted, and probably wouldn’t help with attendance. But I’ve seen a lot of empty seats during Leagues Cup games this year (I’m currently watching Vancouver play Pumas in their Round of 32 game and there’s plenty of empty seats at BC Place; wait, strike that, it looks like a normal Whitecaps home game). 

I don’t think that this change will be implemented next year, but something like this needs to happen. Group winners have to be rewarded for the only round that winning the group actually means something. Portland traveling to St. Louis is very dumb and very unfair. 

The St. Louis Report

Last season’s version of St. Louis City SC finished top of the West and grabbed the 5th overall seed in this year’s Leagues Cup. When 2024’s version of St. Louis City faced the Portland Timbers on June 8th, the Raviolis were 11th in the West with 17 points from 15 games. When the season paused for Leagues Cup, St. Louis was in 13th place with 23 points from 25 games. They are second to last in the Shield; 9 points ahead of the San Jose Earthquakes. Head coach Bradley Carnell, the mastermind of their record-setting inaugural season, was fired on July 1st. Normally I would go deeper on this firing, but I’m going to save it for now. The Leagues Cup draw has created a fascinating scenario for this game in particular. One of these teams will be eliminated, and then they will have a two-week break until the MLS season resumes on August 24th. That next league game? A trip to Portland. Whoever loses this game will have an instant chance to get revenge. 

The Raviolis hosted both of their group stage games. But their participation in the tournament was overshadowed by a boycott. St. Louis City has seven supporters groups (insanity) and all of them agreed to boycott the group stage of the controversial tournament. This is a response to MLS pulling the majority of their clubs out of the US Open Cup. That’s fine. Even though I wouldn’t boycott the games myself, I appreciate the spirit of the boycott and I wish both tournaments would be able to coexist. One of those groups, STL Santos, has decided to end their boycott ahead of tomorrow’s game. Since the other six groups are continuing their protest, the Raviolis will not have the usual raucous crowd that accompanies them. 

St. Louis beat Dallas 2-1 in their first game. Then they clinched second place by losing to FC Juarez in a penalty shootout. Interim head coach John Hackworth is 2-1-3 since taking over for the dismissed Carnell. Four new signings have arrived in Mound City since the transfer window opened. Marcel Hartel (that can’t be his real name), Cedric Teuchert, Simon Becher, and Jake Girdwood-Reich made their debuts in the group stage. Hartel is a DP and scored a penalty kick on his debut. Teuchert is a TAM signing and also scored on his debut. Three of these additions should help St. Louis’ struggling attack, and Girdwood-Reich is a reinforcement for the midfield. Although Carnell is gone, the Raviolis still have the same high-pressing identity. Their new players could prove to be difference-makers, but there have also been some key departures during the summer window. Club captain Tim Parker was traded to New England and center back Henry Kessler arrived in return. Kessler is not eligible to play during Leagues Cup because he’s already cup-tied with the Revolution. 

The Raviolis have been ravaged by injury. Joao Klauss, Celio Pompeu, Rasmus Alm, Tomas Ostrak, and Joakim Nilsson will miss tomorrow’s game. Klauss, Pompeu, and Nilsson started for St. Louis on June 8th. Njabulo Blom has been suspended for this game due to a violation of team rules.

I’m predicting three changes from the St. Louis team that lost to Juarez in a penalty shootout. Burki should return to the starting lineup, but backup Ben Lundt had an excellent game despite the bad result. Totland should replace Jake Nerwinski at right back. Simon Becher scored against Juarez, but I think Thorisson will get the nod over him for this game. The man from Iceland has 2g/1a in his past four starts. Although there are plenty of absences, the new signings are here to help. 

The Timbers Report

Portland’s rapid rise from the basement has been a joyous thing to watch. But it does come with a caveat. Since their 4-2 win against San Jose back on May 15th, the Timbers’ schedule has been woefully unbalanced. This is mostly due to the woeful imbalance of their early-season schedule. Prior to May 15th, Portland played 7 of their first 12 games on the road. To correct that, 7 of their next 13 were at home until the Leagues Cup break. And out of those games, 4 of their last 7 league fixtures were home games. The Timbers went 1-0-2 in their 3 most recent road games. One average victory against San Jose and two losses in Dallas and Los Angeles. When the season paused, the Timbers played 25 games with 13 of them on the road. Their away record is 3-3-7, but their goal differential is -4.

That goal differential is more important than their record. 4 of those 7 road losses have been by the score of 3-2. Those four games were characterized by defensive errors that proved too much for the Timbers’ attacking talent. Two of them make up Portland’s last two road games: the losses in Dallas and Los Angeles. Now the Timbers are going on the road again, and the team has to “be tighter on the road.” That phrase comes from the head coach, who credits the strong run of form to a “clean sheet mentality.” Portland has only kept two clean sheets on the road this year, and one of those was on June 8th in St. Louis. “Tomorrow, we’re going to have to keep a clean sheet in order to win the game. I’m sure of it,” Phil Neville said during today’s press conference. Winning on the road is a very hard thing to do in MLS, and the Timbers won’t be able to advance in this competition if they keep beating themselves. 

Antony exited the Colorado game with an injury, but trained in full this week and will be available for selection with no minutes restriction. Marvin Loria is still working his way back to full fitness and will feature for T2 tonight in their game against Austin FC II at Providence Park (8 PM kickoff, tickets are free and there will be a broadcast on Apple TV). Finn Surman returned from the Olympics and will travel with the team to St. Louis. 

Three changes from the team that beat Colorado. Chara should be back in the starting lineup after resting against Colorado. I think it’s a good game for Zuparic and McGraw to start after both were sidelined for Kamal Miller and Miguel Araujo last game. The front four is completely settled, although Moreno could see more time as a supersub like he has been for the first two games of Leagues Cup. 

Tactical Preview

Second Balls

St. Louis is a very physical team. In the June 8th game, the Raviolis committed 21 fouls. They will ruthlessly fight for second balls and the Timbers need to be alert to limit St. Louis’ opportunities to win the ball back instantly. This doesn’t just apply to the midfield. St. Louis likes to attack down the wings and cross the ball into the box. Zuparic and McGraw’s aerial ability will be key to stop those crosses, but they also will need to be alert enough to recover and combat any second crosses that come in. Aside from goalkeeper, St. Louis’ main strength is their double pivot of Chris Durkin and Eduard Lowen. Durkin acts as the 6 while Lowen is the deep-lying playmaker. Both players are very aggressive in 50/50s, so Portland’s midfield will need to match their intensity.

Final Thoughts

Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 PM PST and the game will be broadcast on Apple TV. Portland’s record against St. Louis is 1-1-1, with a 1-1-0 record at CITYPark.

Portland’s quadrant of the bracket has 5 Liga MX clubs and 3 MLS teams. If Portland wins tomorrow, they will likely face Club America in the Round of 16. In order to win this tournament, the Timbers will have to win road games. This game isn’t just a massive one in terms of the cup. It can be a massive boost to the team’s belief. Portland is going to need to win on the road to win any trophy in 2024. This test comes at a perfect time. The quest continues.

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