Mailbag: November 2024

For some unknown reason (eye roll), there has recently been a migration on the Internet. Many people fled the social media network X (I can’t even call it Twitter anymore because that website is NOT Twitter) and joined BlueSky. Since there is a giant chasm between the end of the First Round and the Conference Semifinals, I thought that it would be a good time for a quick mailbag. To celebrate the mass influx of users on BlueSky, I decided to send out the bat-signal for questions on the rapidly growing website. I’m planning to do more mailbags in the future, and you gotta start somewhere. By the way, you can find me on the butterfly website @jeremypeterman.bsky.social if you want. I’m still going to be active on Twitter (there I go again contradicting myself) and I will be posting on both platforms. 

Throughout Phil Neville’s first season in charge of the Timbers, it’s been pretty hard to figure out the team’s tactical identity. The head coach himself has spoken about the importance of mentality over tactics multiple times. So it’s time to put a tactical plan for the team on paper, because there definitely is one.

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Whoever starts in net is tasked with being a sweeper keeper. Because the Timbers utilize a high line, it places a lot of pressure on the goalkeeper to defend outside of the box. Both fullbacks have the freedom to roam forward, which puts a lot of pressure on the center backs if the team loses possession (this happens a lot). The organization of the midfield depends on who plays. Some players (Eryk Williamson and Cristhian Paredes) are much more comfortable getting forward than the other two pivots (David Ayala and Diego Chara). The right winger (commonly Santiago Moreno) is expected to either occupy the right channel or stay wide by the touchline (Antony). Evander has the freedom to move anywhere across the attacking third and “find the game.” Felipe Mora uses his elite instincts to find room in the box. Jonathan Rodriguez’s role is the most tactically complex, but it isn’t too complicated to figure out. He’s a target winger/inside forward who is much more comfortable receiving the final pass than beating defenders on the dribble.

That outline speaks to one thing: the reliance on individual talent rather than a tactical system. There is talent on the playoff-caliber roster, but the top-end players aren’t going to win trophies by themselves. However, I question the notion that the team needs another “tactical” assistant, because they already had a roadmap to a successful system that got abandoned before the season began.

*Using initials instead of full names because of character limits.*

In the preseason, Neville experimented with a back three system. Now, a back three doesn’t solve everything, but it does provide some extra defensive solidity. Having another center back to help with set pieces and rest defense would do wonders for this team, especially with so much money invested in the position since Ned Grabavoy became the general manager. Eventually, a back three was utilized during the season for two games. However, Neville got the personnel wrong rather than the system. Both games were played over the course of four days with a travel day in between. After the comeback 4-2 victory against San Jose (highlighted by a defensive error by Larrys Mabiala) and a 2-1 loss in Minnesota, Neville ditched the back three for the rest of the season. 

Given the strengths of Portland’s fullbacks (who should be wingbacks), and the strengths of Portland’s two biggest defensive acquisitions since Grabavoy got promoted (Kamal Miller and Miguel Araujo, who are more suited to play as outside center backs in a back three), I believe that the Timbers should enter the offseason with the intention to utilize a back three next season. They have the players to do it properly (and they can always add more!).

I don’t think a new assistant coach is necessary to make that switch. The technical staff just need to fully commit to the new system when the regular season starts rather than reverting to the 4-2-3-1 that the Timbers have used for (what seems like) years. 

There are two ways to look at this question: will Evander leave this winter or will he leave at some other point in the future? I’m going to address the latter first, and that response is a firm “yes.” Expecting Evander to be a Timber for the remainder of his career is nonsense. He has not been silent about his desire to play for the Brazilian national team, and the “catch zone” for Selecao players does not include the United States. A return to Brazil or Europe seems likely for Evander, and probably before his contract expires at the end of 2026 if he is desperate to make the World Cup roster. 

However, contrary to my prior beliefs, I don’t believe that an Evander sale this winter will happen. There is one reason for that: the state of Portland’s roster. But, on the other side, there is a reason why it might not happen: the state of Evander’s contract negotiations. 

This entire roster is constructed around Evander. He is the key to this entire team. Felipe Mora and Jonathan Rodriguez (two of Portland’s three highest earners) turn 32 next year. I don’t believe that the Timbers would be offering him to other clubs unless they have an immediate and gettable replacement in mind. During an interview with Territorio MLS this week, Evander said that he would play out the remainder of his contract with the Timbers. Unless an offer arrives that the team can’t possibly refuse, I think that Evander is still a Timber when the 2025 season opens.

There is a caveat. He could still force a move if he doesn’t get a raise before the season begins. That is why it is imperative for both parties to get back to the negotiating table as soon as possible. I hesitate to call it an “extension” because I still believe that no additional years will be added (his current contract expires in 2026 with a club option in 2027). The Timbers saved a ton of money when they signed Jonathan Rodriguez instead of German Berterame. That cash hasn’t disappeared. If the decision-makers still aren’t comfortable with a release clause, they can always increase Evander’s guaranteed compensation as a counter-offer. It really is that simple: get him a raise and actually GO FOR IT while he’s still here instead of expecting him to lead this team to the promised land while the club spends the 5th-fewest amount on salaries in the league. 

I believe that this is the first time I have ever talked about the Thorns on this website. So, before I can answer this question, it’s time to dive into the Thorns’ infuriating 2024 season.

Mike Norris had to be fired. Let’s get that out of the way. Did he deserve to be promoted to technical director? Well, maybe, but from what I’ve heard he does his best work in an administrative role. Rob Gale’s tenure as the INTERIM coach was exactly what the Thorns needed AT THAT MOMENT IN TIME. They needed someone to bring the positive vibes back, and he was the right man for that. However, that ended when he was (prematurely) hired as the permanent head coach in mid-July. The signs were already there that the “new coach bounce” wasn’t going to carry over. And the bottom of the ship fell out right after his promotion. Much of the anger for that decision can be directed at former GM Karina LeBlanc. The team added some good players during the summer transfer window (personally, I believe that Alexa Spaanstra is going to be a PROBLEM next year) but they didn’t reinforce the positions that had negligible depth (center back). But by the skin of their teeth, the Thorns were able to turn around their catastrophic collapse from mid-summer into early fall and collected just enough points to make it back to the playoffs. In their lone playoff game, their weaknesses were on full display. Poor set-piece defending and an attack that failed to play to their strengths. Most of the criticism for that can be directed at Gale. However, this is the Bhathal family’s first full offseason in charge of the team. They have already fired (reassigned) LeBlanc after her “global head coach search” ended with the decision to keep the current guy. Now there’s an open GM spot, and the Bhathals have to find the correct person to bring the Thorns back to their former glory.

That person, and there really is no other candidate in my mind, is Mark Parsons. Stumptown Footy’s Phuoc Nguyen already wrote about how he’s the perfect hire (you’ve probably read this by now, but here it is if you haven’t (you absolutely should read it)) and he knows what he’s talking about. Parsons simply has to come back to Portland, but not as the head coach. Rather, he should be in charge of hiring the next head coach.

Throughout Gale’s tenure as the permanent manager, I got the impression that he never felt the metaphorical axe hanging over his head. The Timbers’ season may have ended with a 5-0 catastrophe at home against their second-biggest rival, but the Thorns were INFINITELY more frustrating to watch in 2024. There are very good players on this team! They mostly played out of position. Substitution patterns were infuriating! It makes no sense that a team THIS TALENTED had to claw their way back into the playoffs, even with the long-term absences of their two centerpiece players (Sophia Smith and Sam Coffey). By the way, hiring Parsons would definitely keep both stars happy. That’s priority number one in my eyes. Giving Parsons the freedom to find another head coach who can instantly bring the Thorns back to the mountaintop is crucial. In my eyes, it is clear that the Thorns job is too big for Rob Gale. That’s no indictment of his as a person, but rather his ability as a manager. My expectation for the Thorns remains sky-high. They are the premier team in the NWSL and their expectations start and end with trophies. That sentiment holds true in the eyes of the Rose City Riveters as well. So that’s two things on the checklist for this upcoming offseason: hire Parsons as the GM and let him hire a new head coach. But there’s one more thing that the Thorns absolutely have to do this winter.

The NWSL Draft doesn’t exist anymore. Every player coming out of college will enter the league as a free agent. The Thorns need to take advantage of that, and their golden goose currently resides in the (stinky) city of Boston. 

Jade Rose is a 21 year old center back who currently attends Harvard University. She has already earned 23 caps for the Canadian Women’s National Team. No player will be more coveted during this upcoming offseason than her. The Thorns need to do everything in their power to bring her to Portland. She would join her current international captain (Jessie Fleming) on a club team with a rich history of success. Rose is going to be a superstar. Giving her the opportunity to learn alongside Becky Sauerbrunn and the chance to play for the most successful women’s soccer team in the country seems like a no-brainer. Close the deal. Bring Jade Rose to the City of Roses. It’s almost too perfect. It simply has to happen.

This is the hardest question I will answer in this article. Mostly because I don’t fully know what the answer is! In terms of allocation money and the open U22 slot, I’m not going to give a full answer for that until the expansion draft is over and free agency begins. But there are two positions that the Timbers need to address during the winter. 

My primary concern is striker. Ideally, the Timbers will sign a young, tall striker who can complement Felipe Mora while also offering a different profile to the Chilean. Would I earmark a U22 slot for that player? Probably, but that also depends on how the team approaches the central midfield.

Next season will likely be Diego Chara’s last season in a Timbers uniform. That’s the assumption I’m keeping in the back of my mind while the offseason rolls on. His long-term replacement is already on the roster (David Ayala). However, the team needs another box-to-box player who can elevate the level of Portland’s midfield. Could that be a U22 player? It’s too early in the offseason for me to make any kind of prediction for that. The Timbers will enter 2025 with an extra $2M GAM and an empty U22 slot. One admirable part of Ned Grabavoy’s tenure as general manager is his willingness to find proven MLS players in free agency. I believe that the team will be targeting more free agents this offseason, and those needs could change given the results of the expansion draft. I’m saving the majority of my player acquisition talk until December. So much of it is dependent on potential Evander and Santiago Moreno departures and a possible tactical shift to a back three. It’s too early to make any kind of personnel projections.

However, one thing is blatantly obvious. The Timbers cannot wait until the season begins to sign their key contributors. The front office cannot sit around and count their legs during the early weeks of the transfer window. Next season needs to be treated like an “all-in” year. If the front office was content with this season being Neville’s “introductory” campaign, it’s time to put the pedal to the metal in year two.

More offseason articles are coming, but it’s the dead zone of the offseason right now. There are several key deadlines approaching, and the playoffs have to end first. However, I will be writing about the remaining MLS playoff games. Miami and Columbus are dead, and the East is full of hungry teams who suddenly have an open window to MLS Cup. However, the West is still chalk aside from Minnesota (who are actually chalk if you go by the form table). I just hope that the Best of Three round gets re-formatted ahead of next season. It’s so boring. Thankfully, it’s all single-elimination from here. Onwards. 

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