MLS Cup Playoffs Round 1 Game 2: Portland Timbers-San Diego Preview (11/1)
In an alternate universe, the Portland Timbers would be preparing for the second leg of their first-round playoff series against San Diego. They would have a 2-1 deficit on aggregate, with a crucial away goal on the scoresheet. Instead, MLS’ brain-dead playoff format has given them Game 2. If there is a silver lining, the objective for tomorrow’s game is simple: win.
The San Diego Report
San Diego (19-6-9, 63 points, 1W/4S) has the same record that they did last week. So has anything changed?
Hirving Lozano will be traveling with the team, but head coach Mikey Varas stated that he “will be coming off the bench.” Los Plasticos have played each of their last three games without the Mexican winger, and have won all three of them. In addition, they’ve scored 10 goals.
The next bit of news comes from the MLS Disciplinary Committee. Midfielder Anibal Godoy was fined for “simulation/embellishment” due to his dive in the 47th minute of Game 1. No yellow card was awarded for the play in real time, but at least there’s some semblance of justice. More on that later.
SDFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
No changes from last week aside from Pablo Sisniega being cleared to play after recovering from his head injury. As mentioned before, Lozano should be available.
If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.
The Timbers Report
For the third year in a row, the Timbers (11-11-12, 44 points, 8W/17S) are facing a must-win game at home that could end their season. Technically, this already happened in 2025. Portland defeated Real Salt Lake 3-1, which gave them the ability to play in this series.
This has been a weird week. Normally, the team would be preparing for their second consecutive meeting against San Diego. However, due to the peculiarities of the schedule, they’re about to face San Diego for the third time in three weeks. If they manage to win tomorrow, it’ll be upgraded to four times in four weeks. Has San Diego fatigue set in yet?
Not for the Timbers. With ample time to dive into the tape, they should be more prepared for the San Diego machine, especially with the season on the line.
In the same Disciplinary Committee report, Jimer Fory was fined for “failing to leave the field in a timely manner” after getting sent off in Game 1. This is always a weird fine to see because any player who gets sent off doesn’t immediately go to the locker room. In addition, this news release was accompanied by this headline.
Dear God, y’all. MLS has decided to farm out game recaps to AI, and it looks like they’re doing the same to headlines. However, AI would definitely spell his last name correctly. Good job, editor. Congratulations to you.
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Fory joins Carballo and Rodriguez on the absentee list. Matias Rojas has been cleared to play after recovering from a hamstring strain and will be available for selection.
The simplest choice would be to start Smith at left back in place of Fory. Other than that, I don’t think any other changes to the starting lineup are coming. However, there is always a possibility of the back three making a return. So let’s project a second lineup for that potential scenario.
I think Antony becomes the sacrificial lamb to allow another center back (probably Zuparic) to enter the XI. This team is balanced with 5 in attack (front three and wingbacks) and 5 at the back (midfield and center backs). Either of these formations are equally likely. However, I believe the back four is most likely. San Diego is very good against teams that line up with 3 center backs, and the Timbers did use that structure on Decision Day (although Surman was absent and Joao Ortiz was in the middle of the back three). Portland has been good and bad in both structures. I think personnel is more important than formation in regards to tomorrow’s starting lineup.
Tactical Preview
Zero to Sixty
Possession teams usually have a significant weakness with defending counterattacks. This is not unique to San Diego in the slightest. Their vulnerability with transition defense can be exploited by the Timbers, but they have to return to their early-season form.
Those counterattacks from March and April were driven by Portland’s outstanding speed. And I’m not talking about the raw pace of Timber attackers. When executed with intent and purpose, Portland can create a quality chance on every counter. Phil Neville knows the power of these counters, and he talked about them on Thursday:
“If you go back to the LA Galaxy game when we went away from home, you think about the three goals we scored there, particularly the last two goals….I think we are a really good counterattacking team. What I would say about the last 3 or 4 weeks, I don’t think we’ve executed the final pass or the final finish as well as we should’ve done. And I think that’s really important going into this game.”
I agree with this line of thinking, but I’m going to poke a small hole in it. Portland’s counters have been failing before they even get into a place to play a final ball. The team isn’t functioning as a unit in direct attacking scenarios. Players tend to stay back and go forward in a disorganized fashion. There also isn’t a designated “counter captain.”
Last year, Evander was the first player to get the “release ball.” This is a pass that springs the counter by opening up space and bypassing the first couple lines of pressure. For the 2025 Timbers, that release ball can go to a multitude of different players. Without a designated player (HINT) to target for the release ball, Portland’s counters take too long to develop.
That “counter captain” has to be Da Costa. It’s the role that he thrived in during the opening months of the season. For whatever reason, he hasn’t been occupying that role after Leagues Cup. He’s a ball-progression dynamo that the team desperately needs to spring these dangerous counters. This is the key to beating San Diego on the break: find Portuguese Dave and let him cook. Once that is accomplished, the final pass and final finish can be achieved.
Keeping Shape
The Timbers could line up with a back four or a back three. This next focus applies to either formation.
Two of San Diego’s biggest chances from Game 1 didn’t involve their forwards at all. They were midfielder-to-midfielder and fullback-to-fullback. San Diego does an outstanding job of manipulating space around and inside the box, usually with sacrificial runs from their front three. On the counter, those front three are the focal point. But San Diego can score with any player on the pitch because all 10 field players (well, except the center backs) can crash the box and get on the end of all types of service.
San Diego is outstanding at baiting opposition defensive structures. You can’t successfully press them because they’re always a step ahead (unless they get complacent) and you can’t successfully stop their rotations in the final third. Portland still has trouble defending as a team, and they need to be focused on denying the final ball. The best way to do that is staying in shape from the first line to the last line.
Breaking down a defensive block is very hard, even for sophisticated possession teams like San Diego. This game will be won by Portland preventing as many clear chances as possible. Forcing San Diego to resort to crosses is an avenue for success. That can only be accomplished by keeping a strong defensive shape and not getting pulled out of position by San Diego’s rotations.
Matchday Info
Broadcast Bulletin
Long-time readers will remember when I used to calculate Portland’s record depending on the broadcasters assigned to each game. This was a relic from the early days of the Apple deal, and this section’s title reflected that method of stat-keeping. However, I thought it was time to update because there’s no point putting “analytics” in the title of something that simply states facts with no additional data. It bothered me, so I’ve fixed it! Unless y’all hate this new title, it’s here to stay.
English: Keith Costigan & Maurice Edu
Spanish: Jorge Perez-Navarro & Marcelo Balboa
Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: FREE on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Kickoff time: 6:30 PM PST
Referee Report
Drew Fischer’s 2025 stats: 20 games, 23.95 fouls/game, 0.35 penalties/game, 3.85 yellows/game, 0 reds/game
Last Timbers game officiated: May 15, 2025 @RSL 0-0 D
Quick note: Fischer was my vote for 2025 Referee of the Year. He occupies the top tier among PRO officials, with only Filip Dujic in his stratosphere. Neville wanted a referee that would be fair to both teams. He got what he wanted.
Series History
Historical record: 0-1-2, -5 goal differential
Home record: 0-0-1, -4 goal differential
Current streak: 3 winless
Current home streak: 1 loss
Playoff record: 0-0-1, -1 goal differential
Home playoff record: first meeting
Bracket Time
Every single Game 1 has been played by now. NYCFC was the only road team to win Game 1 across every playoff series. Given the seeding, it isn’t surprising. However, Charlotte had the best home record in the entire league during 2025 (13-1-3). Anything can happen in the playoffs, I guess.
The matchup that the Timbers need to keep an eye on is Minnesota-Seattle. The Loons triumphed in penalties in a real “ball-don’t-lie” situation after Jackson Ragen got away with blatant DOGSO in the 9th minute. It’s one of the worst missed calls of the year, and far more offensive than Kamal Miller’s infraction in the season opener. The penalty shootout was highlighted by both Roldan brothers missing their spot-kicks and Stefan Frei failing to save a single attempt. Funny stuff. The winner of that series advances to face the Portland-San Diego winner.
Final Whistle
Talking about advancement is really hard when prior history gets involved. There have been 16 total Best of 3 series since MLS began this ridiculous format in 2023. The Game 1 winner has advanced in 14 of those series. Both “comebacks” occurred last year. Atlanta United stole Games 2 and 3 against Miami while NYCFC needed penalty kicks in Game 3 to complete their reversal. There is a path forward, but it’s very hard to accomplish.
That “comeback” talk can’t begin unless the Timbers win tomorrow. They have to do whatever it takes to keep their season alive.
Win or lose, tomorrow’s game will be the final game that the Timbers play at Providence Park this year. It is mathematically impossible for them to host any remaining playoff game. It is their duty, in Year 50, to close the curtain on Providence Park’s contributions to 2025 with a win.
2025 has been an extremely frustrating year for the Timbers at home. It began with the season-opening disaster against Vancouver. Then the Asterisk happened, and the Timbers really needed those two points when those proved to be the difference between the Wild Card and the First Round. A dull 1-1 draw with Seattle didn’t put a smile on anybody’s face. A late equalizer by San Jose and a late RSL winner left sour tastes in the mouth. Evander’s homecoming was brutal. Another late equalizer by Dallas was a gut-punch in the middle of a horrific drop in form heading into the playoffs. And the San Diego Decision Day beatdown wrapped a bow on the regular season at Providence Park.
However, there were also moments of brilliance. David Da Costa introduced himself to the home crowd with a late winner against Austin. Santiago Moreno honored his mom with a bicycle kick on Mother’s Day. Kevin Kelsy’s first home goal proved to be a winner against Colorado. 10 days later, Antony produced a Goal of the Year nominee and David Ayala smashed home a corner kick to win Sunday Night Soccer against St. Louis. Caleb Porter’s first match at Providence Park as the coach in the opposition was a homecoming that all Timbers fans could appreciate. Omir Fernandez’s late equalizer capped off a 50th anniversary celebration that saw generations of old friends pour into the stadium. The Timbers didn’t concede a single goal at home during Leagues Cup, and they scored 5 of their own. And 10 days ago, they triumphed in the Wild Card Game, erasing all of the memories of last year’s shellacking.
It’s been years since someone could definitively say that their next game at Providence Park would be their last one of the season. This phenomenon previously occurred on December 11th, 2021. Tomorrow’s game is rare, because everyone inside will know that they’re stepping into Providence Park to watch the Timbers for the last time in 2025. Savor it. Enjoy it.
The Timbers cannot savor or enjoy their final home game of 2025. They have a decision to make. Is it time to get back in the canoe or hop on the bull? Their canoe continues to wobble, but the sheer effort expended by the bull might be enough to force Game 3. Either way, the Timbers have to win. Losing three games in three weeks to the same opponent would be a pitiful way to end the season. They cannot let that happen. The voyage continues.
