Nashville SC-Portland Timbers Preview (3/8)

After securing their first win and clean sheet of the season, the Portland Timbers will hit the road for the first time in 2025. Last weekend, the Timbers were desperate for a win. The same can be said for Saturday’s opponents: Nashville SC.

The Nashville Report

This is the first full season for new head coach BJ Callaghan. When these two teams met at Providence Park last year (4-1 Timbers win), interim Rumba Munthali was still in charge. Callaghan had already been hired, but wasn’t going to take charge of matches until Leagues Cup. Did the Coyotes benefit from a new manager bump? Nope, not really. After a run to the final of Leagues Cup under former head coach Gary Smith in 2023, Nashville was grouped the following year. Once MLS play resumed, the Coyotes finished the season with a 3-2-6 record in their final 11 games under Callaghan. This included 1 win in their last 5 home games. A 9-9-16 record constituted the worst season in Nashville’s short history. Despite finishing with 36 points, they were only four points away from the final playoff spot in the East. With a vast collection of middling teams around the bottom of the East, the front office spent the winter upgrading the roster.

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Nashville’s 3 DPs (Hany Mukhtar, Walker Zimmerman, and Sam Surridge) are all locked in to long-term contracts. None of them were eligible to be bought down, so the Coyotes are married to the 3/3 roster model for the foreseeable future. Because of their constraints, most of the offseason work revolved around their TAM players. Nashville had six TAM players in the squad after the 2024 roster freeze. Only two of those players (Tyler Boyd and Jack Maher) survived the winter purge. Sean Davis was traded to the Galaxy for Gaston Brugman, which brought Nashville’s TAM core to 3 players. Anibal Godoy was traded to San Diego, Shaq Moore was traded to Dallas, and Randall Leal was released. With a fair amount of cap space open, GM Mike Jacobs added four senior players: Edvard Tagseth, Andy Najar, Jeisson Palacios, and former Timber Bryan Acosta. Starting center back Lukas MacNaughton was another key departure after being traded to DC United. Dru Yearwood’s departure opened a second U22 slot (2024 summer signing Patrick Yazbek occupies the first) and Swedish winger Ahmed Qasem arrived from Elfsborg to boost Callaghan’s attacking options. Jacobs also dipped his toe in the USL market with the acquisition of Birmingham Legion midfielder Matthew Corcoran. Finally, SuperDraft selection Wyatt Meyer was signed to a first-team deal. In total, 14 players left Tennessee and 13 players arrived. Not a transformative window at the top of the roster, but certainly a productive one.

However, Nashville’s first two games have left a lot to be desired. Not only are they winless (0-1-1, 14E/26S), they haven’t scored a goal. The Coyotes finished 2024 with 4 points from their final 5 games, and their only victory in that stretch was a 3-0 win at Soldier Field against a lame-duck Chicago Fire squad. Callaghan has installed a back three, with Mukhtar and Surridge acting as twin strikers. Mukhtar, the 2022 MVP, has really struggled with the new shift in particular. Through the first two games, he looks like a shadow of his former self. Nashville’s trademark stout defense has largely held pat from 2024 into the new campaign, but their struggles with quality chance-creation and scoring goals have carried over from the 2024 disappointment. Tomorrow’s game is a huge opportunity for Nashville to not only win a game, but score a goal.

NSH Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Three players (Bryan Acosta, Tyler Boyd, and Maximus Ekk) have been ruled out due to injury. Three other players (Jeisson Palacios, Julian Gaines, and Jacob Shaffelburg) are questionable.

I’m not entirely confident in this lineup projection due to Shaffelburg’s questionable status. He’s a player that has to be in the team from the start if he’s cleared to go, but I’m erring on the side of caution. Because Nashville have very few wide threats aside from the Canadian, I think the back three from their first two games will continue. The only change from last week’s team is a start for U22 midfielder Patrick Yazbek. However, if Shaffelburg is healthy and good to go, the Coyotes could line up in a 4-2-3-1.

Either of these starting lineups could happen. That’s how important Shaffelburg is to this team.

The Timbers Report

It feels good to win games of soccer, and the Timbers (1-0-1, 8W/16S) did exactly that last weekend against Austin. However, as the Timbers get ready for their first road game of the season, there’s only one question: can they capitalize on momentum?

Road Woes

The Portland Timbers haven’t won a game away from home since June 19th, when they defeated Wooden Spoon winners San Jose at PayPal Park. Because they failed to win their final 6 road games in the league, Portland finished 22nd out of 29 MLS teams in the road table. Only Montreal had a worse road record out of last year’s playoff teams. Their first road game of 2024 was a trip to Yankee Stadium which they won. It’s very important for the Timbers to get off to a good start on the road in 2025. More on this later.

GAM Time!

Back on December 10th, MLS released the cumulative GAM totals for each team. I’ve already spoken about how good it is for the league to do this for roster transparency reasons, so I won’t go down that rabbit hole again. However, on Friday morning, those GAM totals were updated and added to each team’s roster profile.

On December 10th, the Timbers had $2,767,783 worth of GAM available. That’s a net spend of $1,718,424. This release raises two questions: how much GAM did they convert from the Evander sale and is there enough to create even more roster flexibility?

The Timbers had to buy down several contracts off of TAM (which is being phased out) this season. They also acquired $1M GAM due their choice of roster model. When a team chooses the 2/4/2 path, they receive $1M GAM up front at the beginning of the season. If the 2/4/2 model is still in use after the roster freeze in the fall, the remaining $1M GAM is awarded. This allows teams to switch back and forth between the roster models if they choose to in the summer. Because the salaries for 2025 haven’t been released yet, it’s hard to speculate where that GAM has gone. That’s something to tackle in May when the MLSPA salary release is published.

However, there is still enough room on the roster to potentially add another player. Phil Neville and Ned Grabavoy have each stated that the Timbers are looking to add another player to the group. Because they don’t have any available international slots, some of that allocation money could be traded to another GAM-starved team to acquire one. I’m not going to speculate on what position the braintrust is looking for another reinforcement (my gut tells me another attacker is on the way) but the flexibility is there if the right deal becomes available.

PTFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

This week marks game number 3 of Jonathan Rodriguez’s mandatory 6-game absence. Elsewhere, Juan Mosquera and Maxime Crepeau are still hurt and will not play tomorrow. Miguel Araujo is still out, but for Green Card purposes. It is imperative that his situation gets resolved in the next 3 weeks in order for the roster to be compliant once Rodriguez can be activated. Santiago Moreno and Dario Zuparic are both questionable, and Kamal Miller is fully healthy after missing last week’s game with a red card suspension.

Pantemis will make his second consecutive start with Crepeau still injured. That goalkeeper competition storyline has been kicked down the road for another week. I expect Kamal Miller to return to the backline alongside McGraw and Surman. Fory and Antony are still Sharpied-in at wingback. The first road game of the season seems like a good time to reinstate the Ayala-Chara pivot. However, changes should be made on the front line. Adding Kelsy alongside Mora should help Portland’s set pieces and give Nashville’s backline headaches. Da Costa hasn’t been able to play as a true 10 yet, and I think this is the week to play him through the middle.

Tactical Preview

The First Half

The Timbers were outscored 15-7 during the first half of every single MLS road game in 2024. They took a lead into halftime in only 4 of their 17 road matches. In those games, the Timbers had a record of 2-1-1. Portland were rarely awake during the first half of the majority of their 2024 road games. Tomorrow’s contest is a perfect time to set a new standard for road performances. Nashville will be desperate to score a goal, so the Timbers will probably have to weather a storm in the first 20-30 minutes of game time before their attack can settle in. If they can remain solid at the back while still offering any kind of counter-attacking threat, they should be able to win the battle of the first half.

The Wingbacks

BJ Callaghan compressed the pitch at GEODIS Park over the offseason to give his team less ground to cover in defense. So Portland’s wingbacks (Fory and Antony) will be very important in the attacking phase of play. Most of the Timbers’ attacks against Austin began along the right side. I’m very interested to see how often they can get Fory involved along the left. Through two games, the Colombian has already shown above-average defensive chops. But interspersed with his defensive quality have been several threatening crosses. I think his deliveries from the left side will be crucial to the Timbers’ attack in tomorrow’s game.

Set Pieces

The Timbers have not conceded a set piece goal in both of their games in 2025. That’s excellent work, but Nashville’s tandem of Walker Zimmerman and Sam Surridge are very good in the air. Tomorrow will be a big game for Zac McGraw, who will probably be expected to shadow Zimmerman on every attacking free kick for the hosts. The Timbers have already looked a lot more solid on set pieces through the first two games. Finding consistency in that area is still a worry, and a good performance in this phase of play tomorrow should boost their confidence.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

English: Tony Husband and Ross Smith (hell yeah)

Spanish: Sergio Ruiz and Walter Roque

Radio Broadcast from 750 The Game: not on Apple TV

Broadcast Platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff Time: 5:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Filip Dujic’s 2025 stats: 2 games, 27.5 fouls/game, 0 penalties/game, 3.5 yellows/game, 0 reds/game

Most recent Timbers match officiated: 9/15/24 @COL, 2-1 L

Series History

The Timbers have never lost to Nashville, posting a 2-2-0 record in 4 meetings. This is their second trip to GEODIS Park. Portland’s previous visit to Nashville resulted in a 2-2 draw on July 3rd, 2022. Their most recent meeting was last year in Portland when the Timbers demolished them 4-1 on July 7th.

Final Whistle

The hosts are far more desperate for a win tomorrow, but the Timbers are also trying to build momentum. Tomorrow could see the return of Santiago Moreno and Dario Zuparic, but I’m not counting on it. A good performance that results in a win or draw is the outcome that I’m expecting. Portland only makes three East Coast trips this year, and this one comes at a pretty good time. Let’s see if they can build on the Austin victory with another win against Nashville. The climb continues.

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