NYCFC-Portland Timbers Preview (3/9)

My favorite baseball team plays 81 games at Yankee Stadium every year. One of my least favorite soccer teams also calls Yankee Stadium home. This weekend, the Portland Timbers are returning to their roots and playing in a baseball stadium once again (11:00 AM Pacific, Apple TV).

The Black Eye of MLS

Last season, I cleansed myself of the guilt I felt from MLS Cup in 2021. With my conscience cleared, I can now take aim at the venue that will host Saturday’s game. I love New Yankee Stadium. It has a perfect short porch in right field that Juan Soto will use to hit 50 home runs this season. After The House That Ruth Built was demolished and rebuilt, the Yankees won a single World Series in 2009 and have failed to make it back to the Fall Classic. New Yankee Stadium is a monument to complacency and near-misses. Aaron Judge has heroically risen as a man with basketball-player size and a burning rage for opposing pitches. Despite the accomplishments of several individual players, the Yankees have kept rising and failing in the postseason and bringing great grief to their fans. I’m not a normal Yankees fan. I don’t expect a title every season. But when your biggest rivals have claimed two titles in the 15 years since your stadium has opened, changes are desperately needed. However, the biggest sins of Yankee Stadium haven’t occurred when their flagship team is playing on the field. It’s when their other tenants take the pitch.

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Don Garber is a man of many talents. One of his most notable talents is his incredible ability to move goalposts. Garber has spoken about the “lower quality” of lower-league fields in regards to the Open Cup, but the worst soccer stadium in the United States is a baseball stadium that has to disguise itself. When the Portland Timbers entered the league, one of the requirements to join was a soccer-specific stadium (SSS). Numerous expansion teams have entered MLS without a SSS, but they usually have NFL stadiums they can temporarily use before building a legitimate home stadium for the team. Some teams will never build soccer-specific stadiums (Seattle, Atlanta, Charlotte, and New England), some teams rented football stadiums before their new home was built (DC, Nashville, Minnesota, Cincinnati and Orlando) and the Chicago Fire moved from Soldier Field to a suburban SSS before moving back to Soldier Field again. When Portland entered the league, PGE Park was set up for baseball. The Timbers did play at PGE, but MLS’ strict SSS rule was the facilitator for the renovations that occurred prior to the Timbers entering the league. NYCFC entered the league without a plan for a SSS, and MLS looked the other way. This is the only time since the Timbers joined the league that they have ever done that for a team that can’t use a NFL stadium. Next year is NYCFC’s tenth year in MLS. Garber hasn’t had an issue with NYCFC playing on a terrible field for ten years and continues to demonize lower-league teams for the poor quality of their playing surfaces. Garber has said that lower-league fields aren’t good enough for MLS teams to play on, specifically in the context of the US Open Cup. But for the last nine years, one of his flagship franchises has been playing on top of a baseball field with no issue from the commissioner. It’s hypocrisy of the highest order.

NYCFC have finally announced plans for a new SSS in Queens by Citi Field, but this team should not have been allowed to exist for the previous nine years without a SSS. Other teams have had perfectly acceptable venues by MLS standards, but they have built their own stadiums. Orlando entered MLS in the same year that NYCFC did, and they had plans for their new stadium. It opened in 2017; two years after their inaugural season. Garber doesn’t care. Getting a second franchise in New York City was more important than a proper venue that he so desperately “cares” about. He bent the rules for NYCFC more than any other club. LAFC and Inter Miami have done some questionable things regarding their roster composition, but at least they have a place they can truly call home. Miami is building their own SSS, and LAFC had theirs ready to go during their opening season. No other team has gotten more leeway from the higher powers than NYCFC, and their mere existence is an affront to the sport in the United States as a whole. And New Yorkers outside of the core fanbase couldn’t care less about the team.

Last season, NYCFC ranked last in MLS in attendance from a percentage of capacity standpoint. This is the proper way to measure MLS attendance because some stadiums can hold more people. In 2023, NYCFC averaged a percentage capacity of 65.4% full for the entire season. Only games at Yankee Stadium were taken into account, because that’s technically their home. They had a +15.3% change in overall attendance from 2022 in regards to pure numbers, but they aren’t filling that stadium up. They do have an exciting team but they reside in a highly accessible venue in the most populated metropolitan area in the country. With a real stadium, NYCFC could be among the MLS attendance leaders. But in both baseball and soccer, Yankee Stadium is a monument of complacency. Baseball-wise, it’s marked by a front office that mismanages a large payroll and gives out exorbitant contracts to players who are past their prime. And in regards to the squatters on the soccer side, it stands as an affront to the teams who put effort and money into creating their own home. 

The NYCFC Report

Right after their 2021 triumph, the Pigeons returned to the Eastern Conference Final and Philadelphia got their revenge. Last season, they faded into mediocrity. Head coach Nick Cushing was tasked with replacing Ronny Delia, and the roster was not complete. The sale of Taty Castellanos left the Pigeons without a true striker, and they were forced to experiment up top. Left winger Talles Magno was the first to take a crack at replacing Castellanos, and that experiment failed. This led to the acquisition of Monsef Bakrar last summer, and he wasn’t able to add the goals that the Pigeons desperately craved. However, CFG flexed their spending power this past offseason. Striker Jovan Mijatovic is the prized acquisition. He arrived from Red Star Belgrade for $8.6 million and is a U22 Initiative signing. Winger Agustin Ojeda joined from Racing Club for $5.5 million. Those are two quality youngsters who can provide a boost to NYCFC’s attack. However, through two games, NYCFC (0-0-2, 0 points) have not found the back of the net. 

Even though only two games have been played, there are still some stats worth getting into. NYCFC post the highest possession percentage in MLS, holding the ball 58.5% of the game. Both of their season opening games have been on the road, so it’s pretty odd to see the Pigeons enjoy so much of the ball. Against Charlotte, the hosts grabbed the lead 8 minutes in. NYCFC spent the rest of the game trying to find the equalizer, but only 2 of their 12 shots found the target. Out of those 12 shots, NYCFC generated 0.5 xG. The Pigeons were not finding good places to shoot from and their efforts rarely troubled Charlotte’s goalkeeper. This game could’ve ended 2-0 if Charlotte winger Kerwin Vargas was able to slot home his penalty kick. Against St. Louis, the Pigeons only saw 55% of the ball and took 7 shots (1 on target). They had trouble advancing the ball out of their own half against a good STL press. Eventually these numbers will even out, but this is the continuation of a troubling trend from last season. In 2023, NYCFC finished 27th out of 29 MLS teams in goals scored, only scoring 35 goals in 34 games. Based on xG, this is an underperformance of 7 goals. Expected goals can be misleading, but it underscores their trouble in the finishing department. Other new players like Hannes Wolf could get the Pigeons firing again, but a team with this many new pieces is still going to need time to gel. 

Their defense was the strongest part of the team last season. They only conceded 39 goals in 34 games. That’s 3 more goals than their xG-conceded number. Against St. Louis, they were outshot despite enjoying more possession. So far, the defense hasn’t been able to keep them in games. However, since they are returning “home” tomorrow, they will be looking to turn their fortunes around.

However, three key players will not play tomorrow. Talles Magno and Maxi Moralez are out with knee injuries, and James Sands will miss the game while serving a red card suspension. 

Sands’ absence is a blow for the hosts, but Andres Perea and Keaton Parks are more than capable. Left back and both center back spots are settled, but Tayvon Gray could start over Mitja Ilenic at right back. Hannes Wolf should make his home debut on the left with Santiago Rodriguez playing the 10. Julian Fernandez or Agustin Ojeda could start on the right, but I’m going to go with Fernandez. I think Jovan Mijatovic makes his first start tomorrow. Monsef Bakrar is the other striker NYCFC have available. This team has talent, but is still very young. They’re motivated and want to win their home opener. 

Seven To Ten Days

Since Ned Grabavoy’s preseason press conference, the Timbers fanbase has been eagerly awaiting a signing. “Hopefully within the next 7-10 days,” Grabavoy said in a response to a question about the open Designated Player slot. This has shifted all the focus to the mystery player that the Timbers desperately want to bring to the team. Sixteen days have passed since this press conference, and only two names have surfaced: Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodriguez and German Berterame. At this moment, both players look unlikely to join the Timbers. This has upped the strife in the fanbase to a serious level. But here I am, not worried about a thing. Why am I not worried when everyone else’s blood pressure is through the roof?

Phil Neville is sick of facing reporters every week and having to answer for the “promises” of upper management. He has no control over the DP search, and he’s the only one who can provide any insight to the media about it. But the one thing he has stressed during these recent press conferences is the need to find “the right player.” Rodriguez and Berterame are both stars in their own right, but are either of them “the right player?”

Club America wants $7 million for Rodriguez. He joined America in January 2022 for about $6.5 million. Now he’s 30 years old and wants a long contract with a high salary. That’s perfectly fine for him to demand. It might be the last move of his career and the last long contract he could sign. His profile suggests that he would be a solid player for the Timbers with the versatility to play up top or on the wing. There’s no doubt that he could provide something for this team. Also, if the team only spends $7 million in transfer fees, there might be some money left over for a potential Young DP signing in the summer. So what is the hold-up with bringing him over?

You have to hit on those True DP spots. While Rodriguez looks like a good player, $7 million would be an overpay. Plus he has an injury history. He could be the perfect signing for another team, but the Timbers need to find a surefire star who is in their prime. Rodriguez is not that guy, especially at that price point. The Young DP argument is interesting, but I can’t see a position where the Timbers need to sign a Young DP. Striker will be filled by the new DP, Evander is locked in at the 10, Antony and Santiago Moreno are starting-quality, the center of midfield has depth, left back doesn’t need that kind of investment, center back is loaded, right back has depth, and goalkeeper is the most solid position on the roster. The only position that needs more investment is on the wings, but a Young DP isn’t the right profile to add to the winger room. Antony, Moreno, and Dairon Asprilla are the only healthy wingers on the roster right now. Marvin Loria will join once he’s healthy again, but the team needs another veteran presence out wide. A TAM/Fake DP winger should be the main focus of the front office, not a Young DP. With Rodriguez and the Timbers far apart on negotiations, and a ridiculous purchase price, I’m glad that those negotiations have died down.

Berterame is a whole different animal. The Timbers triggered his $15 million release clause which left the decision completely up to the player. I believe that the Timbers and Monterrey were going back and forth with offers before the Timbers decided to trigger the clause. It makes sense. In regards to the price, I’m pretty indifferent. Berterame is a Best-XI caliber striker, and he can also play out wide if absolutely necessary. Mexican clubs are notorious for overvaluing their own players, and the Timbers’ bid is definitely a statement of intent. Whether or not you believe that $15M is a fair price is up to you, but he fits the bill of “the right player.” However, there are two very complicated factors that Berterame has to consider. The first is Providence Park itself. Last season, Berterame played here with Monterrey during Leagues Cup. He broke his ankle during that game. Would he agree to come play the majority of his matches on the field where he broke his ankle? The second factor, in my opinion, is more important. Berterame is a naturalized Mexican citizen, and wants to play for the Mexican national team. However, he isn’t eligible to play for Mexico yet. You need to be a resident of the country for five years before you can play for the national team, and Berterame is only a couple of months away from hitting that mark. This has complicated negotiations beyond any contract that the Timbers can offer him. So what should the Timbers do?

The simple solution is to keep pushing for Berterame to join as soon as possible. But with him so close to eligibility for the Mexican national team, I believe a deal for him in this window is highly unlikely. That’s perfectly fine. The best solution that the Timbers can push for is an agreement now, but the transfer to occur in the summer window. Berterame will be able to gain his eligibility, the Timbers will get their guy, and all sides would be happy. Striker is a need, but not a desperate one. Grabavoy is definitely feeling pressure to get this deal done, but so many extraneous factors are making it a near-impossibility to get done at this present moment. Waiting for Berterame isn’t an obvious boon for the Timbers, but they would still get their guy for the stretch run of the season.

Compromises are tough, but getting “the right player” is the most important part of this DP signing. Yimmi Chara was not “the right player.” Niezgoda almost was “the right player” before his injury. Brian Fernandez was “the right player” on the pitch, but the Timbers didn’t do their due diligence off the pitch. Sebastian Blanco was “the right player.” Diego Valeri was “the right player.” Evander has only been here for one season. Ned Grabavoy made his managerial hire this past offseason, and now he has to make his signature DP signing. “We’re not fucking around,” Merritt Paulson REPORTEDLY told a media member at an open training session. These ambitious bids are a sign that Paulson’s quote has legitimacy. He just sold the Thorns and has money to throw around to improve the team he currently owns. But it isn’t going to be spent recklessly.

The Timbers have learned from Fernandez. They know that they HAVE to ace this signing. If anything, Grabavoy’s timeline wasn’t the most important part of his answer to that question during that press conference. The emphasis on “finding the right player” is the key takeaway from that. This transfer saga will likely roll over into the summer. But that’s not a bad thing. Rodriguez looks unlikely. Berterame is still up in the air. The most important part of these past two weeks of transfer news has been the intent shown from the Timbers’ front office to acquire the player that they are so desperately searching for. Transfers are incredibly complicated. The timeline on the Evander signing was several years from the initial interest to the announcement. There are still holes on the roster that need fixing, and one striker isn’t going to solve every issue that the Timbers have on the field. Patience is still needed, and Grabavoy has been very good in regards to personnel decisions thus far. Yes, the team is still at a disadvantage in regards to the roster without a second True DP. But a panic-buy is not the right move. 

The Timbers Report

Tomorrow, an unstoppable force will meet an immovable object. Phil Neville has never won at Yankee Stadium, but the Portland Timbers have never lost there. The Timbers are 3-0-0 in their only matches in the Bronx. All three victories have been 1-0 nail-biters. While their opponents lead the league in average possession, the Timbers (1-1-0, 4 points) are dead last. In their two matches to open 2024 (both at home), the Timbers have averaged 41% possession. And that’s a true average. In both games the Timbers have recorded exactly 41% possession. Neville has spoken about how he wants his team to be dominant on the ball, but the team has found its early success through quick transition moments. But both of those matches were at home, and 2023 was marked by catastrophe after catastrophe away from Providence Park.

To recap: last season Portland went 2-7-8 on the road. Both road wins were by one-goal margins, and if you add in the seven draws Portland had an away goal difference of +2 in about 53% of their road matches. Here’s where things get really ugly. Those eight road losses resulted in a goal differential of -21. That’s an average of a -2.6 goal differential in every road loss. You can point to a number of factors that led to Portland’s second consecutive playoff miss last season, but their undeniable tendency to take beating after beating across the country was the one that stood out the most.

Neville has the opportunity to change that, and he’s going to need to find the formula very soon. Between this Saturday (March 9th) and May 4th, the Timbers will only play at Providence Park twice. That’s 7 out of 9 MLS matches that will be on the road. The Timbers do not have a stretch of three consecutive home league matches in 2024, but they do have a 3-game road trip. That isn’t coming until the end of April. With a roster that still isn’t at full strength, Neville will have to reverse the ugly trend of last year. 

Evander traveled with the team to New York. He will play, but the coaching staff is still evaluating whether he will start or come off the bench. Eryk Williamson has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Felipe Mora, Claudio Bravo, and Marvin Loria are still out. 

The back seven remain unchanged. So do the wings and striker. I do think Evander starts since Williamson isn’t good to go. If the coaching staff thinks Evander needs fewer minutes, David Ayala should start with Paredes and Chara in a midfield three. Ayala is a creative passer but he usually plays deeper. Maybe he can impress with some quality in the final third. Paredes loves to get involved around the box as well. The lineup listed above is the Timbers’ strongest possible XI with the current state of the roster. 

Tactical Preview

The Timbers average the lowest possession in the league, and NYCFC average the highest possession in the league. Neville said that he wants the team to “play with more courage.” Basically, he wants the team to get more comfortable on the ball. This game is not the time to work on that. Yankee Stadium’s pitch is tiny. In order for the Timbers to have success in attack, they’re going to need to focus on verticality. Antony, Juan Mosquera, and Santiago Moreno are excellent vertical threats. The Timbers are facing a team that is having trouble creating chances. Playing games on the back foot is a bad idea at home, but the Timbers have to get a result here. NYCFC likes to press, and the Timbers struggled against DC’s press last week. Neville has spent the offseason preaching about tactical flexibility, and he’s going to need to be flexible tomorrow. With Evander likely on a minutes restriction and Williamson a doubt, the Timbers don’t have a fully healthy true number 10. Moreno could play there, but there are no true wing options available off the bench. So Neville might have to compromise his main tactical philosophy due to the players he has available. That’s what I’m most interested to see. 

Last season when the Timbers went on the road, they did often try (and fail) to control the game. Heavy losses in Minnesota, Atlanta, and Kansas City were characterized by the team failing to properly defend opposing counters. Keeping the defense solid and compact while daring NYCFC to break the Timbers down is the best way for the coaching staff to organize the team defensively. It will also allow the Timbers to break quickly and decisively when they can force a turnover. The result is the most important part of the game, and the Timbers can’t afford to leave too much space for the Pigeons to attack into. Otherwise we could see a result like one of those blowouts from last year.

 It’s time to put Juan Mosquera under a microscope. He’s a very good player, and he’s someone that European teams are keeping an eye on. While no one can doubt his attacking quality, there is one aspect of his defense that leaves a lot to be desired. He has shown an unfortunate tendency to fall asleep at the back post. He’s still very young, but that aspect of his game has been sticking out like a sore thumb as of late. NYCFC have dangerous options out wide who could be afforded too much space if Mosquera isn’t properly tracking his runners. It’s something to keep an eye on for this game.

Final Thoughts

This past week has been dominated by DP rumors. Finally, a game will be played again. Timbers fans will be treated to Ross Smith on their televisions once again. One failure of the Apple deal is the constant rotation of commentators for each game every week. Some broadcasters are definitely better than others, and we were spoiled with our local broadcasts. It will be good to hear a familiar voice tomorrow morning. The Timbers need to get a result tomorrow. It’s time to gain some momentum away from home, and they’re playing a hungry team that hasn’t scored a goal yet. Avoid any injuries and leave the baseball stadium with some points. That’s the baseline for success tomorrow.

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.