Portland Timbers-Atletico San Luis Preview (7/30)

For the third year in a row, Leagues Cup will be another competitive tournament with actual stakes. After a 1-0 victory in Los Angeles, the Portland Timbers are ready to begin their 2025 Leagues Cup campaign. However, this year’s edition of the tournament will not look like the previous two.

The New and Improved Leagues Cup?

Let’s start with what remains the same. Every Liga MX team will be competing, and the teams are still fighting for that silly looking trophy and 3 CCC spots. Each win is worth 3 points, each loss is worth 0 points, draws are worth 1 point, and every draw will go to a penalty shootout after regulation for the chance to earn an extra point. Well, that’s all the stuff that carried over from the previous tournaments. So what has changed?

Those Liga MX teams (18 in total) will be joined by 18 MLS teams. Not every MLS team will be competing in this year’s version of Leagues Cup. The groups have been scrapped as well, with each team competing in a table full of teams from their native league. So the Liga MX teams are trying to advance from the Liga MX table, and the MLS teams are trying to advance from the MLS table. Only 8 of the 36 teams will move on to the knockout stages. In order to secure qualification, they must finish in the top 4 of their respective league table.

However, each opening stage (officially known as Phase One) game will consist of MLS vs. Liga MX games. 

From this cumulative table, the teams were split into East and West and tiered according to their finish in their respective combined table from league play in 2024 (both Apertura and Clausura seasons combined for Liga MX clubs).

Then all 3 of the group stage games were drawn with each team facing one team from each tier. Portland got Queretaro from Tier 3, Atletico San Luis from Tier 2, and Club America from Tier 1. The setup is a little complicated, but it makes sense and is relatively easy to understand. The teams that aren’t competing get a break until August 9th, when the MLS season resumes. The knockout stage begins on August 19th and will occur alongside the league season. 

I like the changes made to the tournament this year. The group stage format didn’t properly reward teams who won their group (like sending the Timbers to St. Louis last year). In addition, evening the participation between both leagues simplifies the competition. The best change, however, is the complete lack of a month-long break for the competition to occur. 

With a two-week pause instituted for Phase One, it’s a reasonable break for non-qualified teams. Plus, although the turnaround between games is rather rapid, it works for MLS teams in the middle of the season. In addition, creating 8 knockout stage spots for 36 teams will really bring the competition to Phase One. Any poor result could be catastrophic. However, nothing matters until the actual games are played. 

The ASL Report

Portland’s first Leagues Cup test is Atletico San Luis (ASL for short). Their unofficial nickname is Los Tuneros (the Prickly Pears). Last season in Leagues Cup, ASL lost to Montreal and drew with Orlando and lost on penalties. They finished bottom of the group and did not advance to the knockout stage. However, in the 24/25 Apertura, they finished 6th out of 18. In the first round of the playoffs, they defeated Tigres 3-0 on aggregate. In the second round, they won the first leg at home against Monterrey by a score of 2-1. But they got demolished 5-1 in the second leg, which ended their season. The hangover of that result carried over into the Clausura, finishing 15th and 3 points behind 10th-placed Pumas. 

Through 3 games in the 25/26 Apertura, Los Tuneros are 1-0-2 and are currently occupying 13th place. They opened the campaign with a 1-0 win against Leon before dropping their next two against Monterrey and Chivas. All three games were decided by one goal. Their most recent match against Chivas was a wild affair that saw ASL down 2-0 at halftime before roaring back to take a 3-2 lead in the 75th minute. But Chivas responded with 2 late goals to win the game.

ASL Projected Starting XI

I’m going to start by addressing the elephant in the room. Franck Boli is an Atletico player, but he’s been struggling with injuries and hasn’t played since November 9th. It’s extremely doubtful that the Ivorian will be in the squad tomorrow. Head coach Guillermo Abascal is flexible, but has been using a wide 4-4-2 diamond look since the Apertura began. 10/11 players in this projected starting XI started against Chivas last weekend. The only change is right winger Benjamin Galdames in for Oscar Macias. Two players deserve special mention. One is Rodrigo Dourado, who was a Liga MX All-Star this season. Mateo Klimowicz is a name that could be familiar to some Timbers fans due to some rumors floating around in recent seasons about a potential move to Portland. Atletico’s team doesn’t carry a lot of star power, but they’re still a dangerous outfit with a good coach.

The Timbers Report

Friday was fun, wasn’t it? Portland’s signature 1-0 victory at Exposition Park was the first tangible example of momentum carrying over from game-to-game. Tournaments are all about momentum, and the Timbers are entering Leagues Cup with plenty of it.

Portland’s previous MLS Cup runs are prime examples of how the Timbers harnessed momentum. In 2015, the Timbers lost 1-0 to SKC on October 3rd. It would be their final loss in the calendar year. 11 days later, a Fanendo Adi penalty kick delivered a 1-0 win in Salt Lake City. Four days later, the Galaxy fell victim to a suddenly unstoppable Portland by a score of 5-2 in Carson. Everyone knows what happened next. Buoyed by a massive victory in Los Angeles (in a technical sense), the Timbers never let the momentum cease. 

It’s possible for the Timbers to keep the momentum going from such an impressive victory. However, San Luis is a tough opponent despite their record. How will the Timbers line up tomorrow?

PTFC Projected Starting XI

Before Portland’s lineup can be selected, the Leagues Cup roster must be announced. Luckily for us, it has been.

Every senior player aside from the injured Jonathan Rodriguez has made the roster. This includes Antony, who could return for the knockout stages (if Portland advances). Four T2 players make the cut: attacking midfielder Daniel Nunez, winger Noah Santos, wingback Sawyer Jura, and central midfielder Adolfo Enriquez. It’s possible for them to get some playing time, but it’s very unlikely. Hunter Sulte is also listed, even though he’s currently on loan at Indy Eleven.

I’m predicting two changes from the LAFC game. Joao Ortiz hasn’t started a game since July 13th in St. Louis, and is a good candidate to earn another start tomorrow. The other one is Kevin Kelsy, primarily for reasons I’m about to get into. Aside from those two potential changes, I expect the Timbers to start the same team from Friday. They need a victory, and (mostly) keeping the same unit together provides a platform for consistent success.

Tactical Preview

Out of Possession

After reviewing Atletico’s first 3 games in the Apertura, it’s very clear that they’re overreliant on the left side to create chances. Klimowicz often received the ball in space on the left and crossed it into the box. Rather than allowing ASL to use this tried-and-true method of chance creation, expect to see the Timbers try to force the ball to the right side. 

In Possession

Kelsy’s inclusion in my starting XI is purely based on what I saw against Chivas. Los Tuneros are very poor at defending balls over the top. One of Kelsy’s strengths is running onto those balls, and also getting on the end of early crosses into the box. Against LAFC, Kelsy split the center backs and was begging for a cross to be played into the box, but Juan Mosquera didn’t oblige. I expect that avenue to be open tomorrow. In addition, Phil Neville’s emphasis on box-crashing runs should be a big thing to watch for. San Luis’ center backs have trouble tracking runners. 

All Gas, No Brakes

If the Timbers find an early goal, they have to run up the score. With only 4 teams advancing from each league region, goal differential will be very important. It’s worth noting that ASL are not used to turf. The Timbers need to use that to their advantage and come out of the gate in the same manner that they did against LAFC. It has to be a front-footed effort from the opening whistle. A victory doesn’t confirm anything. A convincing victory might.

Matchday Info

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Series History

No prior meetings.

Final Whistle

Some people continue to be disillusioned by this tournament. Personally, it could cease to exist and I’d be perfectly fine. But it does exist, and it provides an opportunity for the Timbers to qualify for CONCACAF Champions’ Cup. Portland hasn’t made that tournament since 2021. By winning five games in this tournament, they could qualify. 

My biggest area of focus is how the momentum continues. Any result other than a win could end Portland’s Leagues Cup campaign. Winning is the primary goal, but a good performance will also go a long way in my eyes. Sometimes you don’t get all the bounces. But the Timbers need to play in a way that they can weather a few bad bounces. That’s the ultimate goal, especially against a Liga MX team. The quest continues.