Portland Timbers-Austin FC Preview (3/1)

After losing their home opener for the first time since 2020, Phil Neville’s Portland Timbers have an immediate opportunity to put last weekend’s disappointment behind them. However, like last weekend, revenge can be used as another motivator as a new-look Austin FC comes to town.

The Verde Report

Austin’s season was hanging by a thread when they visited Providence Park on October 2nd. They needed a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. There’s a popular phrase among video gamers called “getting FM’d.” This refers to Football Manager, a popular soccer simulation game. In that game, it’s fairly common for teams to dominate virtual matches but still come out on the losing side. Portland outshot the Verde-and-Black 26-7, including a 10-1 advantage in shots on target. But Austin’s lone shot on target was a speculative effort from Dani Pereira that deflected off Kamal Miller’s back and fizzed past Maxime Crepeau. The Timbers, who looked rushed and hurried on the attacking end all night, were unable to find a goal despite creating several must-score chances. Their unbeaten streak at home, which began in May, was lost. Austin’s narrow playoff hopes were alive for another day.

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However, during the following weekend’s game in Los Angeles, the eventual MLS Cup champions closed the door on an Austin FC playoff berth with a 2-1 victory. The most memorable moment from that game was a late challenge on Riqui Puig from Austin fullback Guilherme Biro in second-half stoppage time. After a red card was shown, the simmering frustration from the Verde-and-Black boiled over. A scuffle broke out with head coach Josh Wolff at the center of it. That would be Wolff’s final action in charge of Austin FC. He was fired the next day, to the joy of the fanbase who had been calling for his ouster since the beginning of the season. Three weeks later, Nico Estevez was hired as his replacement. What followed could be called the best 2024 offseason in MLS.

Several squad players (including Jhojan Valencia, Ethan Finlay, Matt Hedges, and Alex Ring) did not get their options picked up. But the main story revolved around former MVP candidate Sebastian Driussi. During 2024, the Argentine second forward openly pined for a return to his home country on social media and expressed his displeasure with his now-former head coach. While the club fielded bids for their all-time leading goalscorer, sporting director Rodolfo Borrell was hell-bent on upgrading the striker position. Five months after breaking the club transfer record on Ghanaian winger Osman Bukari, Austin paid $10 million to bring former FC Cincinnati striker Brandon Vazquez back to MLS from Liga MX side Monterrey. For the first time in their short history as a club, Austin acquired a star striker. But Borrell wasn’t done yet. After Driussi’s departure was finalized (for another $10 million), Austin made quick work on signing a replacement. Albanian forward Myrto Uzuni arrived from Granada for a fee of $12.5 million. Other reinforcements like U22 midfielder Nicolas Dubersarsky, Ilie Sanchez, and Besard Sabovic (frowny face) joined the team in the winter. Borrell did an excellent job of addressing team needs while spending big at the high-leverage roster spots. And there’s still a U22 spot open.

Austin beat SKC 1-0 last weekend. Their first half was pretty middling, registering only 5 shots (0 on target) with 59% possession. However, a late winner from Bukari gave Austin all 3 points. Despite not being at their best, they won. Uzuni wasn’t in the squad as the coaching staff decided that he wasn’t fit enough to play. Will that be the case on Saturday?

ATX Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

No one is listed on Austin’s injury report. All players will be available.

Based on last week’s lineup, here’s what I’m expecting from the Verde-and-Black tomorrow. No need to change the backline or the midfield. Uzuni should replace Jader Obrian, but on the left wing instead of the right. Bukari started on the right wing against Portland last season. Vazquez will be a lone striker. With no injuries or absences, and a fully cleared Uzuni, Austin can finally get all three of their DPs on the pitch tomorrow.

The Timbers Report

“No excuses” has been the theme of the past week. Could you make the case that the Timbers were on the wrong side of two horrific refereeing decisions last weekend? Yeah, you could, but if you chose to use those calls as the main reasons why the Vancouver Whitecaps came to Providence Park 4-1 reason I’d suggest a bit of a reality check. However, before I get into the report from two open training sessions during the past week, it’s time to look at the big picture.

Roster Profile Release: Volume 1

This is how Portland’s roster situation looks at the beginning of the 2025 season. All six of the high-leverage slots are full. However, the inclusion of Jonathan Rodriguez on the injured list is very important.

Once a player is placed on the injured list, they must miss a maximum of six games before being reinstated on the roster. Right now, Rodriguez’s inclusion covers two bases. The first is his actual injury, which has been deemed severe enough to warrant an absence of at least a month-and-a-half. However, while inactive, he won’t take up an international slot. This clears the way for Portland’s roster to become compliant until Miguel Araujo receives his Green Card. Once a player gets their Green Card, they do not require the use of an international slot. There was a fair amount of grief given to the Timbers’ front office last weekend because of Araujo’s sudden departure to secure his Green Card. I think people confused the Green Card process and the visa process, which has also been under a microscope recently due to David Da Costa’s arrival. The Timbers don’t have control over either mechanism, but the visa process can be a little easier to navigate. Green Cards are far more complicated, and the Timbers have to act immediately once one of their players becomes eligible. The timing is a bit unfortunate (especially in this case), but it’s something that all MLS teams struggle with. The Timbers are not alone in that.

Portland has seven TAM players on the roster, and Joao Ortiz is not one of them. Since the Timbers banked up to $3M GAM due to the sale of Evander, it’s a pretty safe bet that they used some of that allocation money to lower Ortiz’s cap hit specifically. Five of those players were expected to be TAM players in 2025: Mora, Zuparic, Araujo, Mosquera, and Chara. Jimer Fory’s inclusion as a TAM player isn’t too surprising either. Given that the Timbers had to pay a transfer fee and that all of their U22 slots are filled, Fory’s cap hit for 2025 would be sizeable enough to warrant a TAM spot. However, Claudio Bravo’s roster status is very confusing.

At the end of 2022, Bravo signed an extension until 2026 with a club option in 2027. His base salary never approached the senior maximum budget charge (in 2025, that number is $743,750). When I discussed Zac McGraw’s extension last week, I said that Bravo’s contract is the most value-friendly deal on the entire team. The latest roster profile has caused me to rethink that. Now the Timbers have two TAM left backs on the roster. I don’t like it. When summer rolls around, Bravo will have a year-and-a-half left on his contract. Depending on how well Fory and Ian Smith settle in, a case could be made to sell the Argentine left-back during the summer. I think it’s too early to make any kind of speculation, but his playing time is worth keeping an eye on during the early stages of the season.

Even though there are no questions surrounding David Ayala’s roster status, his contract expires at the end of 2025. While under a U22 deal, his cap hit is very low and very team-friendly. He’s probably the next Timber in line for a big contract extension, but with a club option in 2026 they might hesitate to pull the trigger on an extension given the potential cap hit that would come with it. However, Santiago Moreno has been the recipient of multiple contract extensions and he still occupies a U22 slot. That’s another situation to keep an eye on.

A MLS team can have a maximum of 30 players on their first-team roster. The Timbers only have 25. One of those players is on loan, so they’re operating with a squad of 24 players. Phil Neville teased the addition of “1-2 more players” on Thursday, so I don’t think their winter transfer business is done. However, none of the new arrivals will occupy one of the high-leverage slots. With the $3M GAM generated by the Evander sale and an extra $1M GAM acquired at the start of the year due to their choice in roster-building path, another high-salary player could join the Timbers before the transfer window closes.

Training Report

Training was pretty normal this week. Santiago Moreno spent Tuesday’s session on the side, but was participating in attacking drills on Thursday. Phil Neville expects him to miss “3-4 weeks.” Dario Zuparic did not take the field on either day, but emerged from the indoor gym to spectate several times. Neville’s estimation for Zuparic’s recovery time is “2-3 games.” Jonathan Rodriguez also stepped outside to observe his teammates, and he’s itching to resume on-field training. No other players were limited except Miguel Araujo, who was absent from the facility on both Tuesday and Thursday while he continues to deal with his Green Card. Neville says that Araujo is technically “day-to-day” because he could return at any moment with said Green Card.

On the field, David Da Costa was the standout performer. The quality of his first touch stood out to me the most. My choice for the biggest highlight was a wonderful trivela shot that nestled inside the far post from Santiago Moreno on Thursday. Per Neville’s own words, they’re being incredibly cautious with Moreno and don’t want to risk aggravating his ankle too early. I think that the “3-4 week” timeline for his return isn’t set in stone. Meanwhile, the backline kept shuffling and morphing into different shapes during observable drills. Neville said on Tuesday that Saturday’s team selection will be based on both availability and player form. I don’t think that means an immediate demise of the 3-back, but it depends on the injury report.

PTFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

In a stark contrast to Austin’s nonexistent injury problems, Portland’s list of injured players has grown over the past week. Maxime Crepeau is this week’s surprise inclusion. He will miss tomorrow’s game with an unspecified lower body injury. Juan Mosquera made the bench against Vancouver, but is officially ruled out for tomorrow. Zuparic, Moreno, and Rodriguez were all expected absences. Araujo’s Green Card situation will drag on another week, so he will miss tomorrow’s game as well. He is the only non-injury related absence for the Timbers aside from the suspended Kamal Miller.

Some people will be rejoicing at Crepeau’s absence. I am not one of those people, but I am happy that James Pantemis is probably the best backup goalkeeper in the league. Smith seems to have the inside track at replacing Miller at left center back. Fory and Antony impressed given the circumstances of last week’s game, so I think they’re Sharpied in tomorrow’s starting lineup. Da Costa will start, and is fit enough to play the full 90. I think dropping one of the midfielders (likely Ortiz, but I could be wrong) is the way to fit the Portuguese number 10 into the XI. The partnership of Kelsy and Mora up top should give Austin’s backline some trouble. Neville stressed picking the best lineup based on availability and form, and I think this projected XI fits both parameters.

Tactical Preview

The Midfield Battle

There are several facets of the Vancouver game that can’t be commented on due to the game state. However, the midfield is not one of them. When Kamal Miller was sent off, Neville switched into a back four instead of immediately bringing on another center back. This can be excused for a couple reasons, mainly the fact that no defender had properly warmed up on the sidelines when Miller was dismissed. All three starting midfielders (Chara, Ayala, and Ortiz) stayed on the pitch for the remainder of the first half. When a change finally came in the 37th minute, Mora was the one to exit so Eric Miller could make his season debut. Da Costa entered at halftime for Ayala, ending the three-midfielder phase of the game. During that first half, the Timbers didn’t register a single shot, and failed to control the midfield despite matching Vancouver numerically in that area of the pitch. Loose touches, an inability to properly progress the ball, and a complete lack of shape doomed the Timbers’ midfield in the first half of last weekend’s game.

Now that Da Costa will enter the starting lineup, it makes perfect sense for the Timbers to drop one of those midfielders instead of a center back. Ayala and Chara (my projected starters) will have to win the midfield battle against whichever combination of Pereira, Wolff, Sanchez, Sabovic, or Dubersarsky takes the field for the visitors. Portland’s double pivot will not be isolated like they normally would be in a back four. Both wingbacks will be able to provide support in buildup. However, Ayala and Chara will need to stand their ground in the center of the pitch. After the Vancouver game, Neville highlighted how the Timbers failed to win the majority of their duels. The midfield is the area of the pitch where Portland can improve on last week’s poor showing more than any of the other ones. Austin’s midfield was impressive during the 1-0 victory against SKC. Portland has to win the midfield battle on Saturday if 3 points are on the cards.

The Wingbacks

Due to Miller’s early red card, the Timbers didn’t have the proper time to fully establish how their wingbacks would play in a competitive match. Both Jimer Fory and Antony offer quite a bit going forward, but Fory is (by definition) a better defender. The outside centerbacks will be expected to support the wingbacks on the defensive side of the ball. But I’m really interested to see how the wingbacks are utilized in the attacking phase of play.

The Timbers can create a numerical advantage in the middle of the field with 2 strikers and a number 10. That leaves Fory and Antony to establish the width and use it to deliver balls into the box. The use of wingbacks is the most exciting aspect of the 3-back, at least in my opinion. Don’t be surprised if Smith (the left center back) picks his spots to make progressive runs and be open to send crosses into the box as well.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

English: Mark Rogondino and Heath Pearce

Spanish: Pablo Ramirez and Jesus Bracamontes

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: Yes, check the audio option on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Ismir Pekmic’s 2024 stats (first 2025 match as a center ref): 19 games, 23.47 fouls/game, 0.26 penalties/game, 4.63 yellows/game, 0.32 reds/game

Pekmic refereed two Timbers games last season: 1-1 at Seattle on Decision Day and 0-0 in St. Louis on June 8th.

Series History

Portland owns a 5-1-3 historical advantage over the Verde-and-Black, including a 2-1-1 record at Providence Park. The Timbers haven’t beaten Austin at home since 2022, with a draw and a loss being their last 2 results.

Final Whistle

The Timbers have to put last week’s disappointment behind them. With a “no excuses” mantra permeating the building throughout the week, Phil Neville’s squad needs to treat tomorrow’s game as a must-win, regardless of their lengthy absence sheet. Onwards.

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