Portland Timbers-Colorado Rapids Preview (2/24)

There’s always something so special about a season opener. Being back in the Shrine. Seeing old friends. And of course, a soccer game. However, before we can talk about the soccer, Major League Soccer has done it again.

Back to the Mud

This is not an endorsement of MLS. Rather, it is the exact opposite. This offseason has been dominated by blunder after blunder from the league. First it was the roster rules, which I covered in my previous articles. But the defining moment of 2024 from an American soccer perspective is not Copa America or the first full season Lionel Messi will play in MLS. It is the “strategic decision” for Major League Soccer teams to pull out from the U.S. Open Cup. The league has cited “schedule congestion” and “player fatigue” as two reasons why they are abandoning the only major domestic competition for every American club. MLS, a league that isn’t a big fan of smoke, is using an awful lot of it here. Sure, those are definitely reasons why MLS could be pulling out of Open Cup. But they really aren’t. Hudson River Blue (a NYCFC blog) published an excellent article about MLS’ demands. The most glaring issue is right here:

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What kind of heartless s*** is this?! We’ve heard Don Garber’s patronizing comments about playing at lower-league stadiums, but REPORTERS FOR A CLUB THAT HAVE PLAYED IN A BASEBALL STADIUM FOR NEARLY TEN YEARS have published this article. The Apple deal had the potential to grow MLS. But it’s being used to put every single piece of MLS-related content under one umbrella. I can only imagine how angry Garber was when Messi’s Inter Miami lost to Houston in last year’s Open Cup final while it was being broadcast on CBS’ Golazo Network. CBS is a perfect home for the Open Cup. They respect it and give it the coverage it deserves. But Garber and the owners aren’t making enough money from it, so they’re more than willing to risk losing Division 1 sanctioning because they’re too stubborn and greedy. If Apple were to acquire the Open Cup broadcasting rights, I don’t think this would be an issue. Obviously coverage of the Open Cup would suffer, but at least MLS owners would be able to keep lining their pockets. This situation is still ongoing, but MLS continues to think in the short-term rather than the long-term. That sets us up perfectly for Fiasco #2.

*picture credit to @pcattry on Twitter*

Due to the nature of the officiating profession, it’s perfectly understandable why you would want professional referees to officiate professional sports games. However, when 95.8% of your officials vote against a new CBA, it means that a lockout is coming. That’s exactly where MLS and PRO are ahead of the 2024 season. I don’t really care what you think about PRO in terms of their on-field performances, but any replacement referees are bound to be far worse. Pay the refs. We talk a lot about how hard it is travel-wise to be a MLS player, but referees have to deal with the same ridiculous schedules. We’ve already seen the replacement refs in action during the Miami-RSL game, and they were not good. I don’t really have much else to say here. It’s pretty simple. End the lockout and agree to a new CBA. 

Fiasco #3 isn’t really a fiasco, but it’s another sign of the tone-deafness that MLS continues to provide for its fans. In the midst of this Open Cup and refereeing drama, the league has partnered with Beats by Dre and released custom team-specific Beats headphones. If you wanted even more evidence that MLS still thinks it’s 2012, there you go. Gotta keep milking these fans dry in any way you can. As if the $175 jerseys aren’t bad enough. At this point MLS is nothing but 3 different consultant companies in suits. Good God. At the same time the league announced this Beats collab, the league quietly announced that Philadelphia left back Kai Wagner would not be serving a 3 match suspension that he received following allegations of racist remarks against another player. They can’t help themselves. They have to keep stepping in mud. They’re getting the most global attention that they’ve ever gotten, and they can’t find their way out of the mud pit they got themselves stuck in. 

The Rapids Report

Phil Neville’s first test on the Timbers’ touchline is a new-look Colorado Rapids squad. After firing head coach Robin Fraser, many in the Rapids fanbase were understandably upset. Fraser overachieved with an average squad of players after ownership refused to invest big money into the team. Their high-water mark was a 2021 season where they topped the Western Conference in the regular season, but crashed out of the playoffs on Thanksgiving Day at home against the Timbers. Entering 2024, the Rapids have a new head coach in Chris Armas and they decided to loosen the purse strings. The first new addition is Zack Steffen. The USMNT keeper’s move to Manchester City did not work out, and he’s back in the States to get some regular game time. Djordje Mihailovic also falls into that category, and he’s now the record signing for the Rapids. Those are two very good additions, but wait there’s more. Former Rapid Sam Vines returned to the club in the offseason. Lamine Diack was signed on loan from Nantes, and is set to be the starting ball-winner. In free agency, the club added Jasper Loeffelsend and Omir Fernandez. It confounds me why the club wasn’t doing this with Fraser in charge, but at least ownership is prepared to help Armas. This is his third head coaching job in the league, following a successful stint with Red Bulls and a disastrous one with Toronto. Ironically, Colorado is a great place to rebuild his managerial career. It looks like he has the proper backing from ownership to build a solid foundation. How far that foundation will be able to take the Rapids is the bigger question. 

For Colorado’s player availability, I checked in with Juanners of Box State Footy (would highly recommend checking out his website). Omir Fernandez is expected to be doubtful for the match. Diack just joined, so he’s a doubt to start but should still be in the squad. Vines is touch-and-go. With these notes in mind, here’s how Juanners expects Colorado to line up on Saturday night:

This is pretty close to what I would’ve guessed, but I will defer to the expert here. There is solidity in this team, and a good amount of chance creation. The only question is who will finish those chances. Rapids fans aren’t really high on Rafael Navarro. He’s on loan from Palmeiras and has an option to buy in the summer. As of right now, he’s not worth the buy option, which is a club-record $4.5 million. But Rapids fans are begging for some production out of the striker role. Darren Yapi is available off the bench to back him up. Another notable attacking sub is Kevin Cabral, who is one of my favorite players. He’s so good at getting in the right areas but he just can’t finish. Maybe this is the year he finally breaks out. I’m not counting on it, but if he scores against the Timbers on Saturday I’ll buy his jersey (from DHGate). 

Media Day Takeaways

On Tuesday, the Timbers held an open training and a pre-season press conference for several members of the staff and squad. Ned Grabavoy emphasized that he was very happy with the plan for the roster even though all the pieces aren’t here yet. He also explained that the club isn’t just looking for a DP forward; they’re looking for THE DP forward. This sentiment was echoed by Neville, who is addicted to using the phrase “top, top DP.” Grabavoy also said that the Timbers only have one DP slot open, when we clearly have two. I think I know what he’s talking about, so I’m going to provide a clear and easy (long and convoluted) explanation of this quote.

SALARY CAP NONSENSE

When Ned Grabavoy says that the club only has one DP slot open, he’s correct. Due to the three U22 Initiative players the club has rostered, the Timbers can only sign one senior (TRUE) DP. The other DP can either be a Young DP or a Fake DP. It’s time for MLS pundits and fans to truly embrace what a Fake DP is. A Fake DP is a player who is making less than the max-TAM threshold and is being listed as a DP for salary cap reasons. Senior DPs are important because they make more than max-TAM but have a cap hit of $683,750. That number is the Senior Maximum Salary Budget Charge in 2024. A Fake DP carries the same cap hit, but is categorized as a DP so the club doesn’t have to spend TAM on him. Last year’s Fake DP was Jaroslaw Niezgoda. His base salary (which is what the league uses to calculate the salary cap hits) was $850K. That’s a couple hundred thousand dollars above the Senior Max, so the Timbers saved that amount in TAM by making him a DP. It’s just an accounting trick. If they decide to sign a Young DP, they’re just going to use TAM to buy down the player’s salary. Speaking of salary math, Grabavoy also dropped an interesting little nugget about the U22 Initiative players. One of Santiago Moreno or Juan Mosquera had to come off the tag, and it’s surprisingly Mosquera. This confirms that Santiago Moreno’s contract extension is still eligible for U22 status based on salary, but it’s still going to end up being a decent raise for the guy. His cap hit will remain at $200K. Mosquera’s extension is now even more interesting. 

Here’s a quick fact about the Designated Player rule: each club is only given two DP slots at the start of each season. If a club wants a third, they have to buy it for $150K. That money goes directly to the league and is split among the clubs that chose not to buy the 3rd DP slot. This rule only applies to True DPs/Fake DPs. If a Young DP is signed, then the club doesn’t have to pay the $150K to the league. With that caveat out of the way, let’s look at what Grabavoy MIGHT ACTUALLY MEAN when he says that there’s only one open DP slot.

1. Juan David Mosquera is now a Young DP

This actually makes sense if you think about it from a salary cap perspective. With his move to Young DP status, his cap hit remains the same. The only downside is that the Timbers can’t sign a Young DP at any other position, but they can use TAM for a more experienced winger. 

2. Maxime Crepeau or Dario Zuparic is a Fake DP

If this is the case, I only have one question: why? Does this mean that the team paid $150K just for a bit of salary cap relief? These are the only two players who are making more than the Senior Max. Also, if Crepeau was a DP, it would have been reported by any MLS reporter or announced by the team. Just an odd way to build the roster, but I do think this outcome is extremely unlikely.

3. Ned Grabavoy is incompetent and doesn’t know how many DP slots he has available

I’m only including this because it is a possibility, but I don’t think it’s the true reason why. Grabavoy has made some solid signings since he became the GM, with Miguel Araujo being the only “miss” (only because he’s barely played and he’s been here a half season). Eric Miller, Antony, Franck Boli, Bryan Acosta, Maxime Crepeau, James Pantemis, and Kamal Miller are all shrewd acquisitions (Evander was started by Gavin Wilkinson and finished by Grabavoy). Grabavoy is far from incompetent, and I do believe that he’s done a good job with roster building thus far. I’m not going to dismiss this point as completely farcical, but it does say something that the entire league knows that the Timbers have two open DP spots and Grabavoy says that only one is open.

4. The Timbers did not buy a 3rd DP slot

As we venture further into the territory of the ludicrous, we arrive at our most brain-dead point. Once again, I’m only including this theory because it is a possibility, and I can’t find any way to rationalize how it might be good. Instead, I’m going to use this section to point out the TRAVESTY that this rule is. Buying a 3rd DP slot is dumb to begin with, but it becomes even worse when the money that is paid to the league gets redistributed among clubs that refuse to buy one. They get more money for being complacent. In what world is that a fair rule? Why would the league allow owners to sit on their respective posteriors and collect money for doing nothing?

Imagine buying a boat, and the money you spent to buy that boat goes to people who could afford to buy a boat but choose not to. THEY LIVE ON A LAKE. THEY HAVE A PERFECT DOCK THAT IS BEGGING FOR A BOAT TO LIVE THERE. EVERY PERSON ON THAT LAKE GETS TO ENTER SOME BOAT RACE TO EARN A TON OF MONEY AND SOME LEGENDARY BRAGGING RIGHTS. AND THE PEOPLE WHO RUN THE BOAT RACE REWARD PEOPLE WHO DON’T BUY BOATS WITH THE MONEY THAT THE PARTICIPANTS USED TO BUY THEIR BOATS. Somehow, boat metaphors come very naturally to me. When I was in college, I compared Walmart’s profits to the amount of boats they could buy with that profit. Spoiler alert: Walmart could have a whole-ass Navy, sailing the high seas, and keeping prices low in international waters. This rule is so stupid that my brain has reverted back five years. Congratulations to you, Major League Soccer, for slowing the development of my pre-frontal cortex.

To close out this section, I do believe that one of two options has occurred here: Grabavoy only sees True DPs as roster-designated DPs or Juan Mosquera is now taking up a Young DP slot. If it’s option number two, it’s a little odd that he didn’t disclose that at the press conference. 

Tom Bogert of The Athletic recently released an article that has explained the Timbers’ DP usage. Felipe Mora is occupying the Fake DP slot. Initially, I was upset that the Timbers would use this slot on a player who is making below the Senior Max. But it is entirely possible that the extension Mora signed in November 2022 would allow for his salary to get back to TAM-levels after 2023. I’m interested to see what number it’s at now, and whether or not Crepeau or Zuparic would be a better use of the slot to save the maximum amount of TAM possible. Either way, this whole situation is insane, and all this salary cap nonsense would be so much easier to understand if players’ salaries and the amount of GAM and TAM available were publicly known instead of concealed. I guess I’m happy to be wrong, but there is a universe out there where transparency rules and the people who devote their highest efforts to covering this league aren’t spending so much time and energy speculating. Sigh.

Back to Semi-Normalcy

The new head coach is looking forward to his Providence Park debut, home of “the best atmosphere in MLS.” He’s also pleased with the progress shown by the squad during the Coachella Invitational, even if the results didn’t match. Juan Mosquera and Santiago Moreno, fresh off new contract extensions, are excited for the upcoming season. Eryk Williamson is feeling ready to go for the opener, and Kamal Miller is excited to get a rousing reception from the home fans. Diego Chara took the stand and expressed some sadness but acceptance after his brother Yimmi departed the club. Neville said that the moment Diego stepped into his office, he was instantly the captain. He may turn 38 in April, but he’s showing no signs of slowing down. That wasn’t the biggest “news” to come out of the player interviews, however. Evander was at the podium with Diego, and one quote has captured all of the headlines.

Context is Important

Evander took questions in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. Since I’m not fluent in all of those languages (and can really only understand Spanish with context clues) I didn’t think anything of it when he said this in response to a Brazilian journalist:

This is only one quote posted from an interview given in a language that most Timbers fans cannot understand. If you look at this one quote, it’s understandable that you would be upset with him. It’s a bad quote taken completely out of context. Here’s Evander’s full response to the question, translated into English:

You can see that Evander would like to go play in his home country again. That’s perfectly fine. Soccer players can have dreams and personal goals too. And in the same response, he affirms that he is still committed to the Timbers and wants to be here. He understands that the clubs were far apart during negotiations, and he recognizes that he’s only been here one year. While it would have been nice to go play back in his home country, he’s moved past the failed transfer and is completely focused on the upcoming season. I’ve seen people wildly overreact to this one quote without seeing the full response. The moral of the story: context is always important. I’m going to tie this in with another MLS player: Alvaro Barreal. The FC Cincinnati wingback really wanted a European move in January, and when a deal didn’t happen he demanded to leave the club. Now he’s off to Cruzeiro, a step down from where he wanted to go. This same situation happened with Cristhian Paredes last season. A bid came in, the player was interested, but ultimately chose to stay in Portland. We shouldn’t be getting mad at our players for wanting to stay here and turning down other opportunities. Some of the negative reaction to this quote probably has to do with some fans’ beliefs that Evander is “lazy.” To those fans, I have one question: when his name is announced on Saturday night are you going to boo him? Is that what you believe he deserves for acknowledging that his dreams and personal goals aren’t going to happen at this present moment in time and sticking with the team? In his response to a similar question about rejected bids, Ned Grabavoy reiterated exactly what Evander says in this quote: “He’s extremely fit and hungry and motivated to do well. This is a big season for him and a big season for us and he’s going to play a big role in that.”

The Timbers Report

After a winless preseason, Phil Neville has never been happier for actual matches to commence. “I’ve been sitting here for months just talking, now we finally get to play,” he said during Thursday’s press conference. A four-month offseason really drags on, and he’s gotten tired of answering the same questions over and over. Now he’s finally able for his Portland Timbers adventure to fully begin. He’s inheriting a team that has missed the postseason in each of the past two years. His first goal is to make it back there. While whispers of a new DP continue to get louder and louder, Neville is beginning the season with a short-handed squad. 

Claudio Bravo and Marvin Loria are both out while they recover from knee surgery. But there’s new injury news to report. Felipe Mora took “a hard knock” in the final preseason game against Chicago and is “a major doubt” for this game. It is unclear if this injury will be a problem in the coming weeks, but the Timbers will open the season without their top striker. Maxime Crepeau was absent from training this week while he secured his Green Card. He should be back for the game. With these roster notes, here’s how I think the Timbers will line up on Saturday:

Eric Miller took to the stand on Thursday and spoke about his excitement for the upcoming season. He also offered a few words on his time playing as a left back for Colorado and Minnesota. He is now trusted with the hopes of all Timbers fans because there is no other left back on the roster. The next question is the midfield: who will start alongside Diego Chara? I do believe that Cristhian Paredes is the best fit next to Diego, but if Eryk Williamson is cleared to start he will start. Dairon Asprilla will start at striker with Mora out injured, but that leaves no wingers on the bench. The Timbers lost both Sebastian Blanco and Yimmi Chara in the offseason and haven’t signed any replacements. Nathan Fogaca and Tega Ikoba are the only attackers Phil Neville can bring in off the bench. 

Tactical Preview

Since the Timbers have a weakened bench, they will need to win this game with their starters. They do have a strong starting XI, even though they will be fielding two players starting out of position. Eric Miller is competent at left back, but I’ve been screaming into the void about “Striker Dairon” for a few years. He’s got the aerial presence and the eye for goal, plus the physicality to contend with center backs. We could be in a far worse spot. Antony scored his first Timbers goal against Colorado last year, and he’s set to start on the left. Neville has been very complimentary of him so far, saying he’s been the best player in preseason. The attack should be fine.

That attack will be aided by Juan Mosquera. Oddly enough, the Timbers might be more balanced defensively with Bravo out. Eric Miller prefers to stay back and only get forward when necessary. This will allow Mosquera to get forward as often as he needs to. With the balance at the back, the Timbers will be able to both attack and defend very well.

Neville wants the Timbers to be a ball-dominant team. With players like Williamson, Chara, Evander, and Kamal Miller in the side, the Timbers should be able to be patient and pick their openings. However, Armas has roots with the Red Bulls, and he should be expected to encourage a heavy press. That will make Santiago Moreno and Antony key outlets to receive the ball and run at defenders. This is Neville’s chance to make a big first impression, so I have no doubts about how motivated the team will be. They have to start off this season with three points. 

Final Thoughts

The game will NOT be free on Apple TV, so you’d better have that Season Pass subscription ready if you’re not planning to be in attendance (7:30 PM Pacific Time kickoff). If you are planning to be in attendance, Box State Footy has organized a pre-match pub crawl for Timbers and Rapids fans to celebrate the kickoff of the 2024 season.

They’re a good group of fans, and we’re going to get awfully familiar with Colorado this season. Not only are the two regular season matchups on the schedule, the Timbers have been drawn with the Rapids and Club Leon in Leagues Cup. I do think the Rapids will be in the thick of the playoff race come the end of the season, but a season opener in Portland is a tough test for Chris Armas. Finally, all the endless talking and nonsense of the offseason can end. The soccer is here.

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