Portland Timbers-FC Dallas Preview (6/11)

After a couple weeks on the road, the Timbers return to Providence Park to face FC Dallas on Sunday night (7:00 PM, FS1 & Apple TV). Another FOX game means that the kickoff will once again be more delayed than usual. Be sure to tune in around 7:25 PM for kickoff if you don’t want to see 20 minutes of Messi talk. This match will also be free on Apple TV. 

Sunday’s match is the reverse fixture of the April 1st match in Dallas, where Los Toreros were fooled into thinking that they would take an easy 3 points at home. Franck Boli had other ideas, and debuted with a goal off the bench. (For a recap of that game, click here.) So far, that was one of only two times the Timbers have rescued points from losing positions in 2023. There have been 9 total matches in which the Timbers trailed this season, and only April 1st Dallas away and April 15th Seattle matches have ended with the Timbers either winning or drawing. In 22% of the games that the Timbers are trailing, they end up with a result. Not a pretty number at all.

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FC Dallas is 7-5-5 this season, picking up 26 points. That is good enough for 4th in the West, which seems about accurate for them. Their goal differential of +3 is also interesting. Dallas only has 2 wins by multiple goals this season. Since we last played them, Dallas is 4-3-3, which is very funny because that’s the formation head coach Nico Estevez favors. Of course, I am being a little misleading, because that record doesn’t include their match against St. Louis. That match was started on May 6th, but it got suspended in the 50th minute due to rain. It was resumed on June 7th, with only the remaining match being played. 0-0 was the score when it resumed, but Dallas won 2-0 once it was over. That was their first win since May 17th, and it ended a 2-game losing streak. Dallas once again is good, but also not very good at the same time. Their success can be owed to Jesus Ferreira, who has 10 goals in 2023. No other player on the roster has more than 2. Since Dallas has scored 21 goals this season, Ferreira basically has half of them. But their defense has been solid as well. They have the 6th-lowest xG conceded in the league, and that number is even more impressive given their centerback rotation. Jose Martinez, Nkosi Tafari, and Sebastien Ibeagha have all played a majority of the Dallas games, but there still isn’t a true first-choice pairing. However, they profile as a middle-of-the-pack squad. But, since they’ve been getting wins, they are in 4th. The Western Conference still is pretty wide open. 

One reason Dallas might not be as good as their record is the injury bug they’ve been unable to avoid. Four major contributors didn’t play against St. Louis. Paul Arriola and adulterer Sebastian Lletget have been dealing with thigh injuries, Tsiki Ntsabeleng has a knee sprain, and Paxton Pomykal has a quad injury. That’s ⅔ of the midfield, a quality depth piece, and the starting right winger. With so many attacking contributors out, it is no wonder Estevez has shifted the formation to a 4-4-2 to focus on the defense. 

Since his arrival from Brazil, Geovane has quietly been one of the best right backs in the league. Jose Martinez is their best CB, and Ibeagha will be his partner on Sunday. Of course, it could be Tafari, but I think Ibeagha’s veteran presence will be preferred on the road. The best Timbers academy player of all time is Marco Farfan, and of course we chose not to hang on to him. He makes another return to Providence Park in Dallas colors. Aside from the backline, the rest of Dallas’ XI will be first-choice aside from injuries. Only 40 minutes won’t require any rotation for the squad. Notable names include left winger Alan Velasco, who has been underwhelming in 2023. Jesus Jimenez was a key offseason addition in a trade with Toronto, but he hasn’t found any goal-scoring form as of late. This side will be looking to continue the momentum from their midweek semi-victory.

The inconsistency of the Timbers is truly incredible. Their 4-5-7 record is not good at all, but the flashes of a good team continue to peek through. Most of the time, this team is just boring. Last weekend’s match was a good example of that, but the defensive solidity shown by the team was a breath of fresh air. Neutralizing the most dangerous attack in the league (let me exaggerate just a little bit please) in their own building is truly an incredible feat. With a return home, the hope of more goals returns as well. Franck Boli scored against Dallas earlier this year, and he has got to be hungry for another Providence Park strike. But the wingers have been drastically underperforming in 2023. There has been no goal scored from the wide areas since April 22nd, and all the wingers have only combined for 3 goals and 6 assists this year. The assists is a pretty decent number, but that goals number is very bad. In order for Portland to rise up the table, more goals need to start coming from that area.

Availability-wise, there are no new injuries to report. But Portland will be without two key players this Sunday. The first player is Aljaz Ivacic, who got called up by the Slovenian national team for two EURO Qualifiers. Very good news for the goalkeeper, and he might actually start for them while entrenched #1 Jan Oblak is out with injury. It’s now Claudio Bravo’s turn for a yellow card suspension, and it will be served on Sunday. Despite these two absences, Sunday’s XI is still pretty easy to predict. 

Due to Bravo’s and Ivacic’s absences, only two changes need to be made. David Bingham will start, but based on Hunter Sulte’s heroics in Tuesday’s training session, he will definitely get some consideration. I wouldn’t be against Sulte getting a league start. He made some incredible saves in training, but Giovanni Savarese will probably prefer his entrenched backup keeper. Bingham has performed well in his four starts this season, so it’s not a massive dropoff from Ivacic in net. Savarese’s decision to start Eric Miller against Seattle will be repeated on Sunday, but it’s the suspended Bravo who he will fill in for. Juan Mosquera not seeing the field at the concert venue was more odd than his shocking benching, but he will be starting at right back Sunday night. Franck Boli is back in the lineup after another coach’s decision to sit him against Seattle. Sebastian Blanco will once again be available off the bench, and Noel Caliskan is still awaiting his MLS debut. Business as usual for Portland, despite the absence of their starting left back and goalkeeper.

I previously touched on the incredible defensive performance last week in Seattle. There were two key figures that helped Portland hold Seattle to only 5 shots in their own building. The first was Cristhian Paredes. Nothing got by him, as he took on the brunt of the defensive work with Diego Chara on a yellow card. He still made some long runs into the attacking third as well. He is crucial to the way this team plays, and he’s been very consistent this season. The second was Eric Miller. He didn’t stand out on the stat sheet, but his biggest contribution was through his positioning. Against a quick, technical winger in Leo Chu, Miller used that superior positioning to hold Chu in check despite getting dribbled past on a few occasions. Most importantly, he stayed back while Claudio Bravo ventured forward. This week, Bravo will be out, so Mosquera will be free to join in the attack while Miller stays back. That means the right wing will be the primary avenue of Portland’s movements forward into Dallas’ defensive third. This is the best case scenario for Portland. Moreno and Mosquera on the right is an incredible combo, and it will allow Evander to drift into those areas on the right side of the pitch for some combinations. Asprilla will also be a massive beneficiary, as he can use his pace and strength to force his way into the box to get on the end of the creation on the right wing. Boli will also benefit from this creation. In order for Portland to consistently create quality chances, they need to use that firepower on the right. Both Martinez and Ibeagha aren’t great with the ball at their feet, so a consistent press needs to be employed by the team. Evander and Boli are very energetic and capable pressers, and Moreno’s quality in the press is another strength that points to the right wing. One other interesting facet of this match could be Blanco. In training, he was positioned on the left, and was another creative force from out wide. Maybe the key to Blanco and Evander on the field together is Blanco returning to the wing rather than the 10 position he has grown accustomed to over the past couple seasons. With health still a question, he might be a sub for Asprilla, and he should come on if Dallas takes the lead. According to Savarese, Blanco had his best training session of the season on Thursday. I know Savarese has been experimenting with a 4-1-2-1-2 diamond formation to integrate Blanco, but he will be more effective playing as an inverted winger in the Timbers’ preferred 4-2-3-1. The Timbers’ poor form has covered up their improvement in defending set pieces. In Friday’s press conference, Savarese touched on the importance of film in improving this phase of the game. The Timbers last allowed a goal on a set piece on April 1st against Dallas. And it was a second ball that was the Timbers’ undoing on that goal. Defending second balls is now a hallmark of their set-piece defense. This improvement should definitely be noticed. On attacking set-pieces, don’t be surprised if Zac McGraw records an assist. That sounds weird, and I’ll let you figure out how that would be possible. Just don’t be surprised if it happens. I’ve also realized the problem with our counters. It’s not the speed in which they’re executed, it’s the lack of additional runners from the midfield and wide areas. Paredes is the most valuable player in this aspect of the game, and he should be able to perform his full box-to-box duties on Sunday. Of course, the speed should be amped up as well, but without any help any counter is bound to fail right as it begins. Only individual brilliance can save Portland during counters with little support, and this Dallas defense is good enough to shut it down. Keep good fundamentals, string together a few passes, and finish the big chances that get created. With Evander, those chances are sure to come. 

This is what the Timbers’ June schedule looks like.

Like May, I’m going to set another points goal for this team. The May target was 8 points in their last 4 matches. They ended up getting 4 points from those matches instead. I’m going to lower the target to 7 points for these remaining four June matches. In order to meet that target, they need 2 wins and a draw. Very doable, especially considering the poor form of their two Eastern Conference opponents. 

With a positive (not mind-blowing) result in Seattle, the Timbers need to turn the momentum from it into a win. The season is not dead by any means, but it’s getting precariously close. A busy summer transfer window should alleviate some concerns, but it is unknown whether any potential signings will have an instant impact. For now, fans can only hope. Even if some have lost faith already, the sun hasn’t set yet on 2023 for the Portland Timbers.

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