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Portland Timbers-FC Dallas Preview (10/6)

The battle for playoff qualification is over, but the fight for seeding isn't.

After their 12-game unbeaten run at Providence Park ended on Wednesday night against Austin, the Timbers are ready for their regular-season home finale. Their opponent FC Dallas, who were eliminated from playoff contention on Wednesday.

The Dallas Report

After beating the Portland Timbers 3-2 on July 4th, FC Dallas went 2-1-1 in their remaining games before Leagues Cup. They lost both of their group stage games and crashed out of the tournament. However, after almost a month off, Dallas were able to get two key players back from injury. Jesus Ferreira has been troubled by various knocks, and Alan Velasco returned from an ACL tear. The return of these two players could have elevated Dallas to a playoff spot. It certainly looked possible after the Toreros picked up their first road win of the season in a wild 4-3 victory at DC United when the season resumed. Unfortunately, one week later, a 2-1 lead in Colorado evaporated after the Rapids scored two late goals to take all three points. A draw in Vancouver and a loss in Salt Lake City followed. Four days later, they welcomed an exhausted LAFC team to Frisco and beat them 3-1. Suddenly, they were back in it. But their playoff hopes were hanging by a thread after a 3-1 home loss to Orlando and they were finally buried after a 3-2 loss in San Jose on Wednesday. There were glimpses of this team playing wonderful soccer, but now they can only play spoiler after failing to capitalize on a jumbled Western Conference.

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A fully healthy Dallas (10-7-15, 37 points, 11W/20S) would be a near-lock for the playoffs. Petar Musa (15g/3a) was the club’s record signing during the winter and has proven to be worth his price tag. Velasco was one of the top young players in MLS last year but had his season wiped out by an ACL tear against Seattle in the playoffs. Ferreira has 5 goals in 20 games. Interim head coach Peter Luccin has been a very capable manager and is currently trying to get the permanent job. Because this team has shown flashes and the injuries have wreaked havoc on this team, I think he’ll get it. But this team missed the playoffs because of their league-worst away record of 1-5-10. Today’s game is their final road game, and winning it could give Luccin the final push into the permanent job.

Geovane Jesus and Paxton Pomykal are out with long-term injuries. Liam Fraser is listed as questionable. The most notable name on Dallas’ injury report is goalkeeper Maarten Paes, who is questionable with a wrist injury.

Because Dallas is already eliminated and playing their 3rd match of the week, it makes sense to see a bit of rotation. Paes could return, but I think Maurer starts his second game in a row. Marco Farfan will definitely start because he’s returning to his hometown. Either Nkosi Tafari or Ibeagha will start at center back, but I think the other one gets benched to rest. Arriola and midseason acquisition Ruan are Sharpied in at the wingback roles. Delgado should return to the starting lineup to partner Illaramendi, who could be rested for this game. Velasco and Musa started against San Jose, but Jesus Ferreira played the entire 90. I think he gets utilized as a supersub and SuperDraft pick Logan Farrington starts in his place. What effects will travel and their elimination from playoff contention have on the group?

The Timbers Report

I would like to redact my previous statements about Wednesday’s loss to Austin. In my recap of that frustrating affair, I called it “the worst performance of the season.” However, I think that further clarification is needed. It wasn’t the “worst performance,” but it was definitely the “worst result.” When I think of the worst performances of the year, the loss in Charlotte and the loss to Seattle come to mind. Portland dominated Austin, but the final product just wasn’t there. As a result, that loss looms large over the team heading into the final two games of the season.

Putting Wednesday’s disappointment behind them is the only way forward for the Timbers. They lost the opportunity to control their own destiny even though they are 99.9% likely to qualify for the playoffs. Their best hope is winning their two remaining games: today at home against Dallas and in Seattle on Decision Day. It’s so simple: just win.

Mason Toye is the only player on Portland’s injury report. He is still out with a back injury after the crunching challenge from Brayan Vera two weeks ago in Salt Lake City. During Friday’s press conference, Phil Neville praised Toye’s spirit and effort as he works his way back to match fitness. Diego Chara, Kamal Miller, and Eryk Williamson are on yellow card warnings.

Tomorrow’s lineup picks itself. Well, it kind of does. Those yellow card warnings are serious, especially for Diego Chara. A Chara-less Timbers in Seattle is less than ideal. Enter the Timbers’ new big-game player: Cristhian Paredes. He was stellar against Vancouver and has earned another start this week. Kamal Miller is also on yellow-card warning, but his partnership with Dario Zuparic is the best one the Timbers can field. The front four shouldn’t change. Time to collect three points and run up the goal differential.

Tactical Preview

Staying Wide

Portland’s narrowness killed their attack against Austin. Rodriguez and Moreno both like to come into the channels with the ball, and Austin was able to compress that space and force turnovers. There are so many things that this attack does well, but staying wide is not one of them. Mosquera usually charges up the field to provide width on the right, but there isn’t enough width on the left. The Timbers primarily attack down that right side and Rodriguez is effective as a box-crasher from the left wing. Sometimes the box is too crowded for that style of attack to work.

The Long Ball

Before Austin scored the first goal, they kept a relatively high line. None of the Timbers were willing to play a ball over or through the line to a runner. This team doesn’t make those runs unless they’re playing on the road. Even though Dallas will field 3 center backs, Portland needs to be comfortable with taking risks in possession. Long balls that don’t result in a completed pass can still turn into attacking moments if/when the Timbers win the second ball. Speaking of which, the Timbers need to win second balls! Paredes can really help with that.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Nate Bukaty and Devon Kerr are on the call in English. Diego Valeri (yes, that one) and Sammy Sadovik will be the Spanish announcers. The home radio broadcast from 750 The Game will be available on Apple TV. Originally, I thought that this game would also be broadcast on FOX/FS1, but it looks like it isn’t. Today’s match is NOT FREE on Apple TV.

Referee Report

Armando Villareal will be the center referee for tomorrow’s match. Shockingly, Villareal has only officiated one Timbers match this season: the 3-3 draw in Kansas City.

2024 stats: 13 games, 24.77 fouls/game, 0.23 penalties/game, 5.08 yellows/game, 0.31 reds/game

Series History

I would categorize FC Dallas as a “semi-rival” given the multiple times these two teams have met in the playoffs. The historical record between these two confirms my assessment: 11-11-11. I know the saying is “11:11, make a wish!” but what happens if there are three 11s? Can you still make a wish on that? Either way, much has been made of Portland’s struggles in Frisco. However, in this series, the Timbers are the dominant home side by miles. Their record at home is 9-4-1, but one of those draws was the loss in penalty kicks in the 2020 playoffs. Villareal was the referee in that game too. Huh. Portland hasn’t lost to Dallas at Providence Park in their last three games.

Table Time

Normally I like to publish these previews the day before a game. However, there was a busy MLS slate on Saturday night and it didn’t make sense to post a preview with such uncertainty in the table. Now the table looks much clearer.

First of all, the Seattle Sounders and RSL have clinched top 4 spots in the West. Those positions are no longer up for grabs, and the Timbers blew their opportunity after losing to Austin on Wednesday. 5th place is still mathematically possible, but getting it would require a lot of results and it’s not worth getting into the scenarios for 5th right now. Minnesota beat Vancouver after scoring a penalty kick and getting a Whitecaps goal ruled out for a foul (very questionable call) and now the Loons have two more wins (the tiebreaker) than Portland. Now it is no longer possible to be anywhere higher than 8th place before Decision Day. However, one of Saturday’s results was incredibly significant for the Timbers.

The Portland Timbers are no longer Schrodinger’s Playoff Team. After Austin FC lost 2-1 to the Galaxy in a game headlined by a late challenge by Guilherme Biro on Riqui Puig and a subsequent brawl featuring Josh Wolff charging at Greg Vanney (?), the Portland Timbers clinched a playoff berth. But the climb isn’t over yet. This team needs to avoid the 9th seed at all costs. It doesn’t matter which team Portland would play if they finished from 5th-7th, and it doesn’t matter that the Galaxy await them if they win the Wild Card Game. All they need to do is guarantee a home playoff game. With Vancouver’s recent form in the toilet, it isn’t out of the question that the Whitecaps lose next weekend to LAFC at BC Place. That would be a great result for Portland. However, none of that matters if the Timbers fail to win tomorrow against the already eliminated FC Dallas. Playoffs are secured, but their spot in the table is not. The climb continues.