Timbers

Portland Timbers-FC Dallas Preview (9/27)

Cover photo credit to Sam Hodde/Getty Images.

After Leagues Cup ended, the Timbers stayed in Texas to play FC Dallas. Los Toreros were in 12th and 5 points back of the final Wild Card spot. However, Dallas beat the Timbers 2-0 and haven’t lost a game since. Now they’re heading to Providence Park in the midst of a desperate charge towards a playoff spot.

The Dallas Report

Since it’s only been two months since the 2-0 loss in Frisco, let’s take a look at closer look at Dallas’ 6-match unbeaten streak that began with that home win against the Timbers.

The second most notable three-way rivalry in MLS is Copa Tejas, contested between Dallas, Houston, and Austin. After beating Portland, Los Toreros traveled to Austin for their first meeting of the season. Shaq Moore gave Dallas the lead in the 37th minute, but Owen Wolff equalized right out of halftime. Dallas needed to win this game to be in the drivers’ seat for Copa Tejas, but a draw technically wasn’t a bad result. In this game, Los Toreros had 32% possession.

Their next game was a home game against LAFC. Son Heung-Min scored his first goal for the Black-and-Gold from a free kick in the 6th minute. Seven minutes later, Logan Farrington equalized. LAFC outshot Dallas 20-10, and Dallas only had 34% possession. For the second week in a row, Los Toreros tied 1-1.

That streak of 1-1 draws continued for a third week as Dallas headed to St. Louis. This game is incredible. With Maarten Paes still injured, Michael Collodi started his 4th straight game in goal. However, in the 16th minute, he committed a DOGSO challenge on Joao Klauss and was correctly sent off. Dallas’ third-string goalkeeper was forced into the game. This is a tough spot for any goalkeeper to be in. Especially when that goalkeeper is Jacob Jackson. After a disappointing tenure in San Jose, where he was forced into action due to Daniel and William Yarbrough’s injury troubles, he landed in Dallas as their 3rd-stringer. When Collodi got sent off in St. Louis, Jackson had the unenviable task of making his Dallas debut in the middle of a game with his team down a man. What followed is the best goalkeeping performance of the entire season in MLS.

Dallas was already set on being a low block team, so they were perfectly equipped to handle playing down a man. However, Celio Pompeu found the breakthrough in the 32nd minute. But Dallas struck back two minutes later through Petar Musa. At that point, St. Louis completely took over. They finished this game with 42 total shots. That’s incredible, but the real eye-popper is the 34 shots they took inside Dallas’ box. 14 of those 42 shots were on target, and Collodi made 3 saves before getting sent off. Jackson made 11 saves in this game, and was the sole reason that Dallas was able to hang on for the draw. Such an insane performance deserves a deeper dive.

Here’s how Jackson’s +2.5 PSxG differential ranks in a historical context. This performance is the 10th-highest single-game showing since this stat began being tracked in 2018. There’s one thing that makes this outing truly special: he’s the only substitute goalkeeper to appear on this list.

Against other substitute goalkeepers, Jackson is head-and-shoulders above the competition. But let’s return to the previous chart, with some new qualifiers added.

A penalty kick is worth 0.8 xG by itself, but the quality of the finish is where PSxG comes into play. The most fascinating game in this list is easily #6 (Djordje Petrovic at NYCFC in 2022). He faced 3 penalty kicks and saved one of them. A penalty kick save vaulted James Pantemis’ 2024 game in Austin into the top 10. But 12 of these top 20 didn’t need a penalty kick save to register this high. Jackson is one of them. I’m going to add one more qualifier just for giggles.

Only 4 other goalkeepers faced at least 12 shots on target. Given Jackson’s qualifier as the only goalkeeper in this set who came off the bench, it’s hard to disagree with a potential case for this performance being the best goalkeeping performance in MLS since 2018. Jackson’s herculean effort is the sole reason why Dallas was able to take a draw from this game. By all rights, they should’ve lost by at least 2 goals.

Jackson was back between the sticks for their reverse fixture against Austin. Two goals scored within the first 5 minutes of each half (Musa in the 2nd and Bernard Kamungo in the 49th) propelled Dallas to victory. For the fourth game in a row, they registered less than 45% possession (41%, an uptick from their previous three games). I credit that increased possession number to Austin’s own cowardice. Dallas began this run playing a semblance of coward-ball, but over the past two weeks they’ve grown out of their shell.

Last weekend, they made it 2 consecutive victories after a comfortable 3-1 dispatching of the Colorado Rapids. Although Dallas had 44% of the ball, they outshot Colorado 17-9. During the first half, they were on the front foot. At halftime, with a 2-1 lead (goals from Musa in the 14th and summer signing Christian Cappis’ first Dallas goal in the 36th) Los Toreros decided to retreat into their usual shell. However, despite registering only 32% possession in the second half, they still managed to outshoot the Rapids 9-6. This was a game that they absolutely had to win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. In fact, over the past two weeks they’ve beaten two teams in the playoff spots.

Now they’re provisionally in 9th place: one point ahead of Houston, two points ahead of San Jose, and three points ahead of RSL. In addition, they have a game in hand on Houston and San Jose, while RSL is tied with them on 30 games played. After looking adrift of the postseason prior to the beginning of Leagues Cup, they’ve suddenly positioned themselves to be in the driver’s seat for the last Wild Card spot.

The departure of Luciano Acosta has seemingly awoken something in one of MLS’ legacy clubs. Dallas (9-10-11, 37 points, 9W/19S) and head coach Eric Quill realized the cardinal rule of sports: defense wins championships. Since Leagues Cup ended, Dallas has only conceded 4 goals during this 6-game unbeaten streak. Although they aren’t the best at preventing shots, their sheer ability to pack their own box and defend deep makes them a pain in the neck to break down. Add in some heroic performances from backup goalkeepers (Jackson has started the last three, and Collodi owned the box against Portland in their first meeting) and Dallas are suddenly in contention for the league’s stingiest defense on current form.

When Acosta joined Dallas, a potentially elite battery was formed with the former MVP and Musa. However, for whatever reasons, the two never found a way to gel on the pitch. Musa, being a striker, needed a running mate. Enter Logan “Hot Dog” Farrington, who has 1g/2a during the 6-game unbeaten streak. The former SuperDraft pick acts as the mobile forward as a contrast to Musa’s target man/poacher playing style. There’s something really interesting about that. Musa’s profile as a striker could fit into a multitude of different roles. He could be the mobile forward that Farrington currently is, a playmaking forward, or his current role as a target man/poacher. There aren’t many strikers in the league who can compare to Musa’s technical ability and mental ability. It makes the failure for him and Acosta to form a partnership that much more confusing. In theory, they should’ve been able to light MLS on fire.

FCD Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Submitting a “projected” report is pretty odd, but we’re about to see how odd Dallas truly is.

This is the same lineup from last weekend’s Colorado victory with only one change. I think Collodi retakes the starting goalkeeper role after Jackson had a relatively poor outing. This is where the weirdness kicks in. Shaq Moore has always been a right back or right wingback, but Quill has been using him as a left-sided center back during this unbeaten streak. Ibeagha is left-footed, but he’s playing on the right side of the back three. Urhoghide is a gem. I think every MLS club would want him on their roster. Kamungo has adapted to the left wingback role after a few tough games earlier this year. The right wingback spot is occupied by Ramiro: a defensive midfielder. Quill has been rolling with a double pivot of Kaick and Cappis lately. Delgado is the 10, playing underneath the Musa-Farrington battery. This is a very weird team, and I’m kind of rooting for them to get into the playoffs due to their weirdness.

The Timbers Report

Three games remain in Portland’s season. The Timbers (11-10-10, 43 points, 7W/17S) play Dallas this weekend, then it’s time for the shortest road trip of the season. Despite their poor run of form since the June international break (3-4-6), it hasn’t hurt them in the standings. They’ve been locked into a playoff spot during that entire stretch. And now, they’re on the doorstep of clinching. However, it’s time to take a brief step into the future.

Broke?

No, the Portland Timbers aren’t broke. However, they don’t have any General Allocation Money.

Two things are important to note besides Portland’s goose egg. First of all, they’re not the only team in the league to do this. FC Cincinnati also has no GAM left over. Here’s what Cincinnati’s roster looks like after the roster freeze.

Cincinnati chose to continue with the U22 Initiative model, so they gained an additional $1M GAM this summer. They’ve put it to work; rostering the most TAM players in the league. Most of this GAM went towards buying down cap hits. There’s no space left on Cincinnati’s roster. And they’ve stretched their spending to the absolute limit. Having seen that, let’s take a look at Portland’s roster profile.

With the signings of Kristoffer Velde and Felipe Carballo, the Timbers opted to use the DP model instead. They did not receive any additional GAM for taking this route, and it was the correct call. This is the perfect time to segue into the second important point.

Every team suffers injuries. But Carballo’s ACL tear is unique. Jonathan Rodriguez was placed on the Season-Ending Injury list prior to the beginning of the summer transfer window. This allowed the Timbers to sign Kristoffer Velde as a replacement. With Velde officially being recognized as the “replacement,” Portland technically had a 3rd DP spot open on the roster. They decided not to continue with the U22 model, and switched to the DP model in order to sign Carballo on loan as the team’s 3rd DP. When he got injured, the Timbers could not use the SEI tag on him because the injury occurred after the beginning of the summer transfer window.

As a result, the Timbers cannot get cap relief for his injury. To relate this to their empty GAM chest, Portland could have acquired an additional $1M GAM if they chose to stick with the U22 model. But that decision must be finalized at the end of the summer transfer window, not by the date of the roster freeze. So Carballo’s injury occurred at the worst possible time for the player and club. They went all-in during the summer, quite literally. And some horrific injury luck has left them with a complete absence of GAM heading into the winter.

This year is unique because GAM now carries over from year to year. So Portland’s next GAM infusion will be the traditional windfall clubs receive at the beginning of every season. This makes the winter a little more interesting. It doesn’t affect the present at all aside from Carballo’s absence. But, if there’s one thing to take away from this summer, they literally went all-in. You can’t fault them for that choice.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Mosquera and Crepeau have been cleared to play. Fory is still questionable, and his status will probably be a game-time decision.

Based on their last performance, I would be pretty surprised if the Timbers decided to ditch the back three from the jump. 4 changes are predictable: Mosquera for Antony, Ayala/Ortiz for Paredes/Chara, and Mora for Kelsy. However, if Portland wants to return to a back four, that’s still a very workable option.

Bottomline: I don’t see any way for the Timbers to realistically drop Antony, Velde, or Rojas. Especially given David Da Costa’s recent cold stretch. Either one of these structures could work.

Tactical Preview

The Low Block

This will be the primary challenge for the Timbers. On Friday, Neville admitted that the team is able to attack better in a wide-open, end-to-end game. Their last “low block” game was in Minnesota. In the first half, the Timbers had trouble, but the game opened up in the second half. That’s when the Timbers were able to author some good attacking sequences.

The key to the first half will be scoring early. That might seem like an obvious point, but forcing Dallas to come out of their shell and chase the game will work in Portland’s favor. This was the formula to Timber wins early in the season. But their biggest challenge (recently) has been finding the second goal.

I expect shots, shots, and more shots in the first half. Dallas can’t fully retreat into their shell because of the added pressure to maintain course for a playoff berth. Portland needs to show the same initiative that they displayed in the first half against Vancouver. But, of course, they need to put a couple of shots in the net.

Set Pieces

This section comes in two parts. On the attacking end, Rojas’ deliveries are a weapon. I’d like to see a Timber score off of one.

The Timbers have allowed set piece goals in consecutive games. Both have coincided with the absence of Jimer Fory. That’s not a coincidence. If Fory isn’t good to go, Portland will need to focus on making first contact. As a side note, I’d also like to see some quality clearances. For some reason, Portland struggles with completely clearing the ball.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Josh Eastern & Jamie Watson

Spanish: Jose Bauz & Natalia Astrain

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Chris Penso’s 2025 stats: 16 games, 23.13 fouls/game, 0.25 penalties/game, 4.19 yellows/game, 0.19 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: May 29, 2025 vs. COL 2-1 W

Series History

Historical record: 11-12-12, -13 goal differential

Home record: 9-5-2, +10 goal differential

Current streak: 3 winless

Current home streak: 4 unbeaten

Table Time

Dallas desperately needs this win to keep their streak going and get closer to a playoff berth. Portland, meanwhile, has a relatively straightforward route to clinching a spot in the postseason.