Portland Timbers-LA Galaxy Preview (3/16)

After an incoherent and disastrous outing in Nashville, the Portland Timbers return home on Sunday for a matchup against the defending MLS Cup champion LA Galaxy. However, this weekend’s opponents do not resemble a reigning champ. Hell, they don’t even resemble a good team.

The Galaxy Report

After an emotional 4-2 comeback El Trafico victory on September 14th, the Galaxy traveled to Portland for a midweek game. What followed was an outstanding showcase of MLS at its best. Both teams showcased elite attacking chops, but it was the Portland Timbers who took all 3 points by a score of 4-2. Oddly enough, they hosted Vancouver the following weekend and beat them 4-2. I don’t have the stats for this, but this is probably the first time that an MLS team played 3 games in a week and all of them finished with a scoreline of 4-2. Impressive stuff.

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However, after that Wednesday loss in Providence Park, the Galaxy went on to lose only 1 more game in 2024. That lone defeat was in Houston on Decision Day, when a very late Daniel Steres winner (90+11’) was a gut-punch with potentially brutal consequences. The Galaxy were cruising at the top of the West for most of 2024, but their crosstown rivals were heating up down the stretch. Because of that late Steres goal, LAFC leapfrogged the Galaxy on Decision Day to take the top spot in the West. It didn’t end up mattering all that much. During their run to the Western Conference Final (and a potential visit to BMO Stadium to face their biggest rivals) the Galaxy won all three of their playoff games by at least 3 goals. But it wasn’t LAFC who stood in their way for a first trip to MLS Cup since 2014. It was (somehow) the Seattle Sounders. The Galaxy won the game, but their victory was the definition of Pyrrhic. At some point during the match, Riqui Puig tore his ACL. That didn’t stop him from setting up the match-winning goal and firing the Galaxy to MLS Cup. They were without their talisman for MLS Cup, but a 2-1 victory against a stout New York Red Bulls side resulted in the Galaxy winning the league for the sixth time.

As the confetti was being cleaned up and the celebrations raged on, the severity of the upcoming offseason was staring the front office directly in the face. Because MLS roster rules are completely counter-intuitive, all of the hard work that was done to make their team cap-compliant in 2024 would not be possible in 2025. MLS Cup bonuses (somehow) count against the salary cap and the Galaxy were desperately low on GAM. So the quest began to clear cap space.

The first casualty was MLS Cup MVP Gaston Brugman, who was traded to Nashville in exchange for midfielder Sean Davis. Young center back Jalen Neal also got traded to an Eastern Conference team (CF Montreal). Another key midfielder, Mark Delgado, made a crosstown switch to LAFC. Their last major departure was also cap-related, but not because of bonuses. Striker Dejan Joveljic had escalators in his contract that would have made him a DP. Because of the timing of Puig’s injury, the Galaxy didn’t want to put their centerpiece on the season-ending injury list. MLS teams cannot have 3 Designated Players, so Joveljic became another casualty of MLS roster rules. However, the new MLS intraleague cash market allowed the Galaxy to offload a valuable piece for a reasonable fee. SKC (for some reason) decided that they needed another DP striker to replace Alan Pulido and forwarded $4 million to LA in exchange for the Serbian. That’s a lot of key outgoing pieces, and Puig (sort of) counts in that calculation due to the severity of his injury. The incomings were highlighted by U22 midfielder Lucas Sanabria (who was linked to Portland last summer) from Nacional and a loan for U22 striker Matheus Nascimento from South American champions Botafogo. Midfielder Elijah Wynder arrived from USL side Louisville City and defender Mathias “Zanka” Jorgenson was signed from Anderlecht. To cap off their winter moves, they struck a trade with Columbus for striker Christian Ramirez. There was a slight expectation that the Galaxy would take a step back without several key contributors and Puig’s absence, but no one predicted that a catastrophe of this magnitude would unfold.

0 wins, 0 draws, 0 points. 0-0-3 record and the absolute basement of the league. Throughout 2024, the Galaxy’s philosophy was “score 1 more goal than the other team.” That worked pretty well with Puig (the ball-retention machine) running the show. But the Galaxy are also dealing with the absence of another attacking star: Joseph Paintsil. The Ghanaian winger hasn’t played a single minute of soccer in 2025 as he recovers from a quad injury. Gabriel Pec is the only remaining active player from LA’s outstanding 2024 front line. He can’t carry this team by himself, even though he scored LA’s only league goal of the season. In those 3 games, the Galaxy have conceded 7 goals. After going the entirety of 2024 without a loss at Dignity Health Sports Park, the Galaxy have lost both of their first two home games in 2025. The first was an opening-day defeat (in primetime) to expansion team San Diego FC. Last weekend, they lost again in primetime to St. Louis despite a solid attacking showing where they created a ton of chances. However, St. Louis has Roman Burki, and the Galaxy are very bad at transition and set-piece defense. Their poor start to the season wasn’t limited to league play either. Between a 2-1 loss in Vancouver and last weekend’s St. Louis disaster, the Galaxy lost 1-0 to Costa Rican side Herediano in the first leg of their CONCACAF Champions’ Cup Round of 16 matchup. However, the Galaxy reversed their first leg defeat in dramatic fashion on Wednesday night with a 4-1 victory in Los Angeles. The extra matches are adding more minutes to an already squad.

LAG Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Puig, Paintsil, Lucas Sanabria, and Mauricio Cuevas are all out. Matheus Nascimento and Miki Yamane were both ruled out for last weekend’s game against St. Louis, but have been cleared to play tomorrow.

Simply put: the Galaxy are winless in MLS play and need to play their best possible team. Novak Micovic has started all 3 league games but has been woeful. McCarthy was one of the top shot-stoppers in the league last year and should be reinstalled as the starter. Yamane returns at right back to solidify LA’s first-choice backline. Parente has been a bit of a surprise this year, and will probably start next to Cerrillo. Reus has been a disappointment in 2025, but he has to start. I expect Nascimento to make his first appearance for the Galaxy. Neither Christian Ramirez or Miguel Berry has impressed up top, so a start is probably in order.

The Timbers Report

The theme of the past week has been accountability. Last weekend’s loss in Nashville was nowhere near good enough. On Friday, head coach Phil Neville reiterated that the buck stops with him. He explained that last week’s team was filled with youth and inexperience and that there needed to be more veterans on the pitch from the start. However, based on the construction of the roster and the swath of injuries, there is far more youth than experience available. “When you’re a young player, there’s only one way to learn, and that’s to play. You can’t learn by sitting on the side.”

With Portland’s injury crisis easing up slightly due to the returns of Dario Zuparic and Santiago Moreno, there are a few questions to be raised about team selection. One player whose position is not in danger is David Ayala. For the first time since joining the team in 2022, he has been healthy enough to start the season opener. “I’ve been able to start the three games, and that has given me a lot of confidence,” he told me on Wednesday. But due to the injury crisis, the Timbers have been forced to use a different setup with three center backs behind the midfield pivot. I asked him about what that change meant for his position: “For me, it’s just adapting and finding the spaces to hold the ball.” Last season, Ayala’s primary partner in midfield was Diego Chara. However, for the first 3 games of 2025, he has started alongside new addition Joao Ortiz. “I think he’s a very good player and he’s been able to help us a lot. He’s aggressive and as a teammate you really like that. He’s also a warrior and works very hard. And off the field, the same thing. We’re good friends.” Ayala entered this season as Portland’s top midfielder at age 22. I think it gets lost among a lot of people that Ayala arrived in Portland at 19 years of age and has had to deal with some pretty horrific injury luck. For the young Argentine, 2025 will be about continuing his excellent form from his breakout 2024 campaign.

PTFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Juan Mosquera has been training on the side all week and has been ruled out for tomorrow’s game. Jonathan Rodriguez will miss game number 4 out of the minimum of 6 due to his inclusion on the Disabled List. Miguel Araujo is still in Peru awaiting the resolution of his Green Card. Maxime Crepeau, Santiago Moreno, and Dario Zuparic do not carry any injury designation.

Moreno is back, and so is the back four. I think Pantemis has earned another start in goal. Kamal Miller should return to the starting lineup, and it’s a tossup between Surman and Zuparic at the other center back spot. My gut says Surman. You want to hear a crazy stat? Eric Miller didn’t start a single game at right back during 2024. The rest of the team picks itself.

Tactical Preview

Reaction vs. Anticipation

There’s a lot of bad defending that the Timbers have produced over the past few years, but in last weekend’s game I noticed a sequence that perfectly illustrates one of their core issues.

This Nashville attack doesn’t result in a goal, but it probably should have. The initial throw-in that begins the sequence is won because the Timbers are not very good at playing out from the back. You know what? Let’s take a look at that sequence too. I’ve got time.

It’s not pretty, and the first thing I notice is the complete lack of movement off the ball. Nashville’s high press is cutting off passing lanes which forces Pantemis to go long. You know what could open up those passing lanes? A little movement! Meanwhile, after the ball goes out of bounds, the hosts recycle possession back to the goalkeeper as they try to probe Portland’s press. Willis’ initial pass out wide to Lovitz opens the space for a one-two between Tagseth and the left back.

Now Lovitz flips it back into the middle, which should be covered by Ayala. Unfortunately, he slips and Yazbek has a ton of space to pass the ball to Mukhtar. The former MVP charges forward, and Muyl (who was previously on the left sideline as a potential option for Lovitz) has been able to make an excellent run through the middle that none of the defenders were able to pick up. After two defenders converge on Muyl, he squares it for Surridge, whose extra touch allows Surman to properly recover and block the return pass. This is really good play from Nashville, but they’re receiving a huge helping hand from the Timbers.

This sequence is characterized by Portland’s reactionary defense, rather than anticipatory. From the second that Lovitz chips the ball to Tagseth, the Timbers are already on the back foot. Their press was picked apart by two passes.

Look at all this ball-watching! Antony is completely unaware that Lovitz is continuing his run.

Because Antony has been left in the dust, Surman has to make a challenge here. There are now four green shirts on the left wing with only Ayala to defend the middle. Yazbek has begun to move closer to the ball to become an option for Lovitz.

Ortiz’s ball-watching has caused him to completely abandon the middle of the field. Ayala has to cover even more space than normal and his slip is catastrophic.

This brain fart from Ortiz could be excused if he continued to mark Muyl. However, his eyes continue to be on the ball, and his marker has completely ghosted past him.

Mukhtar’s through ball gets played and now it’s Surman’s responsibility to pick up the runner from midfield. Not great!

During this sequence, Ortiz is solely focused on reacting to what’s going on in front of him. This isn’t just an Ortiz thing; it’s team-wide. The Timbers rarely anticipate the opposition. They merely react. It instantly puts them on the back foot. I asked Phil Neville about the difference between reacting and anticipating during Friday’s press conference, and this is what the head coach had to say:

“I think as a player and as a coach, I think it’s repetition. It’s playing with a consistency in your back three. It’s knowing people’s strengths and weaknesses, it’s smelling danger. It’s preparing them to show them the strengths and the movements of the opposition……In terms of the reaction, it’s a smell. It’s an understanding. It’s a recognition that away from home you’re gonna have to stay with runners, block shots, deal with long balls like the two penalty incidents, and I didn’t think we were that great at it last week against Nashville.”

More anticipating, less reacting. Even if it means allowing space farther up the pitch. Against Austin, the Timbers were comfortable defending deeper and allowing Austin to have the ball. However, because this upcoming match is a home game, Portland will have an opportunity to work on another facet of their game.

High Press

It isn’t a secret that the Timbers play differently at home than they do on the road. At Providence Park, they feed off the energy of the crowd and up their overall intensity. Even though the Galaxy are depleted in the forward line, their identity remains the same: they want the ball. The Timbers have an opportunity to work on their high press. Against Nashville, their press was individual, not collective. Forcing the ball into wide areas and then collapsing on the boundaries should be able to limit LA’s ability to build out from the back.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu

Spanish: Pablo Ramirez and Jesus Bracamontes

Radio Broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast Platform: FOX, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff Time: 1:45 PM (1:55 PM) PST

Referee Report

Lukasz Szpala’s 2025 stats: 2 games, 20 fouls/game, 0 penalties/game, 5.5 yellows/game, 0 reds/game

Most recent Timbers match officiated: 9/1/24 vs. SEA, 1-0 W

Series History

The Galaxy have the historical advantage against Portland with a 14-9-13 record. However, the Timbers are 9-4-4 against the LA at Providence Park. The Galaxy’s last victory in Portland was a 3-1 win on April 3rd, 2022. Last year, these teams met twice. LA won the first meeting 3-2 in Carson while the Timbers turned the tables on the eventual champs with a 4-2 victory in Portland a month and a half later.

Final Whistle

Both of these teams have been heavily affected by injuries. Last season, the Galaxy stood as an example of what the Timbers could be. They struggled to defend set pieces, but were dynamite going forward. This is the first game where the Timbers can show what they want to be in 2025. And they’ll have a standalone window to show the rest of the league as well. But make no mistake about it: they have to win this game. 6 of their next 10 are on the road. Facing the Galaxy at home off of a short week is a perfect scenario. But they’ll have to execute the game plan to the best of their ability. Onwards.

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