Portland Timbers-Minnesota United Preview (9/5/26)

The summer transfer window has officially closed. Now the final sprint to the end of the regular season begins. The Portland Timbers have 12 games left to secure a playoff spot. As they get ready to embark on a very busy week, the stakes of these upcoming games continue to rise. The first offering on tap is a six-pointer at Providence Park against a team I’d consider a competitive rival: Minnesota United.

The Loons Report

After the final whistle blew on April 18th at Allianz Field, Minnesota United sat 6th in the Western Conference after extending their winning streak to 3 games with a 2-0 victory against the Timbers. Three days later, they traveled to Dallas and won 1-0. Their winning streak stood at 4 games. It appeared that some positive momentum was set to carry the Loons into the World Cup break. A disappointing 1-0 loss to LAFC was a slight stumbling block, and a repeat run to the latter stages of the US Open Cup was thwarted by San Jose. Finally, on May 2nd, a late Anthony Markanich goal completed a 3-2 comeback victory in Columbus. It would be the last victory for the Loons until August 22nd.

So why did Minnesota’s 4-game winning streak almost immediately turn around into a 9-game winless streak in MLS play? Their Leagues Cup results aren’t that important (1 loss, 1 PK loss, and 1 win after they were already eliminated). Well, the first game of this streak was a 2-2 home draw against Austin. James Rodriguez came off the bench to provide 2 assists, but Broccoli striker Christian Ramirez had the last word as he immediately canceled out Joaquin Pereyra’s go-ahead goal with an equalizer one minute later. Consecutive losses to Colorado and New England followed. A 1-1 draw with RSL (courtesy of a 90+3’ Mauricio Gonzalez winner) took the Loons into the World Cup break instead of the momentum promised by the April winning streak.

Minnesota’s Clausura began in the worst way possible: a loss to Sporting Kansas City. The Wizards struck twice, and a late Devin Padelford tally wasn’t enough to power the Loons to a result against the worst team in the league. Draws against Vancouver and San Diego followed, before the reverse fixture against RSL had the same result as their initial meeting. To add on to the “worst possible results” trend, a 2-1 defeat against fellow 2017er Atlanta plunged the Loons deeper into the pit of despair.

But their misery had found the bottom of that pit. Three days after losing 2-1 to feckless Atlanta at home, the Loons traveled to San Jose and got revenge on the Earthquakes. Their 5-1 victory ended the 9-game winless streak. However, a chance to capitalize on that momentum went somewhat out the window last Saturday. Orlando took a 2-0 lead by the 64th minute, but three Minnesota goals in the span of five minutes nearly gave them the opportunity to complete two 2-0 comebacks in one season. But Tyrese Spicer’s 90+3’ equalizer caused Minnesota to drop two crucial points.

So is Minnesota United (7-8-7, 29 points, 9W/15S) a good team that had a big downturn in form or a flawed team that is managing to pick up points in a combative Western Conference? The answer is a little bit of both. They’re still at their best when they can retreat into a lower block, which is further illustrated by the split between home and road results (12 points from 11 home games and 17 points from 11 road games). They’re still very reliant on set pieces to create scoring opportunities, which is pretty disappointing when a creator of Pereyra’s quality is on the roster. However, they’re underperforming their xGF by about 6 goals this season. Maybe these attacking struggles would be addressed during the summer transfer window.

However, CSO Khaled El-Ahmad was asleep at the wheel when it came to making crucial attacking additions. He would end up leaving for Austin in August. Minnesota’s summer window was highlighted by two attacking additions: AZ Jackson and Maurice Malone. You should all be familiar with the Money Launderer by now, as he returns to Minnesota on loan from Jagellonia. Malone is interesting. He’s a German national with plenty of experience in Germany and Austria. His best season came in 2024/25 with Austria Wien, with a career high 11 goals across all competitions. This move to Minnesota reunited him with the primary playmaker on that Wien side: Dominik Fitz. Which made it all the more funnier when Fitz was loaned to Wolfsberger during the summer window. Outside of those moves, Minnesota didn’t do that much. Oh, yeah, and James Rodriguez is gone. You already forgot he spent the Apertura in Minnesota, didn’t you.

Therefore, by definition, Minnesota United is simply mid. They can beat any team in the league and also lose to any team in the league. Sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce their way, and sometimes it does.

MNUFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Hlongwane’s knee injury is pretty recent. Stroud hasn’t played since the end of July.

Let’s start with the locked-in starters. Callender was subbed off at halftime against Orlando due to an injury concern, but doesn’t feature on the injury report. Diaz and Duggan have been undroppable, which creates debate at the other center back spot between Romero and Michael Boxall. The Loons host Dallas on Wednesday before traveling to St. Louis on Saturday. Boxall is more likely to start on Wednesday than tomorrow. Triantis recently returned from injury and is Minnesota’s best midfielder. I picked Gene to partner Triantis, but it could be Wil Trapp. Markanich and Duncan have been the first-choice wingbacks all season. Yeboah will likely be partnered with Chancalay, but don’t rule out recently promoted MNUFC2 striker Marcus Caldeira. Pereyra is the creative hub. Head coach Cameron Knowles gets to make his return to Providence Park as the man in charge of the Loons, and he’s got a mostly healthy squad to pick from.

The Timbers Report

The dust has settled on the transfer window, and the Portland Timbers (8-4-10, 28 points, 11W/17S) remained active until the window shut. Two new players have joined the team, although general manager Ned Grabavoy was definitely hoping for more. 

Two Arrivals

But the two newest Timbers needed to come to the team to fill out the backline. Four center backs (Finn Surman, Kamal Miller, Alex Bonetig, and Zac McGraw) populate the roster, and now a 5th has arrived. Canadian international Joel Waterman, originally from Surrey, BC, made history in 2020 as the first player to join a MLS club from a Canadian Premier League team. His move from Cavalry FC to the Montreal Impact saw a rise to prominence under former Montreal head coach Wilfried Nancy, who installed him as a regular starter in the Frenchman’s recognizable back three system. As a member of Montreal, he signed a four-year contract extension in 2024. That same deal is currently in effect, even if Waterman changed teams in the meantime.

That’s exactly what happened last August when the Chicago Fire acquired Waterman for $500K GAM. He played in 9 games for the Fire to close the 2025 season, including 3 starts in their 3 playoff games. The addition of Mbekezeli Mbokazi relegated Waterman to the bench, but he was still very impactful during his 11 starts for the Fire in 2026. His trade to Portland isn’t too surprising after Chicago acquired Augsburg center back Andreas Hanche-Olsen in the summer, making Waterman expendable. For a price of $100K GAM (potentially increasing to $200K GAM), the Canadian defender is back in the Pacific Northwest.

I asked Ned Grabavoy about Marti Cifuentes’ involvement in bringing Waterman to Portland. The general manager responded as such: “Major.” When you look at Waterman’s statistical profile, it isn’t difficult to figure out why.

American Soccer Analysis’ goals added stat has varying levels of usefulness, but assessing a player’s contributions through their passing has a reliable foundation. Their dataset stretches back to 2013. Among 1,571 qualified center back entries in their database, Waterman has two seasons that rank in the top 30 for passing G+ from the center back position. His 2022 campaign in Montreal under Nancy ranks 12th-best. Let’s take a brief look at the players in his neighborhood.

 All of these center backs were regarded among the best in the league during the season in which they registered those outstanding passing marks. 2025 Defender of the Year Tristan Blackmon is only one spot above Waterman’s 2022 campaign. Contrary to popular belief, I don’t think Waterman will be used as a right back. His skillset favors the center back role, or the lone 6 that Cifuentes likes to operate with. On Thursday, the head coach said that Waterman stood out on the tape when the team was preparing to play the Fire. “I felt that he could be an interesting player for the way we want to play.”

But Waterman is happy to be back amongst the trees again. “My wife and I are really excited for this next opportunity and, you know, obviously a historic club like Portland. I’m really excited for the new chapter here and hopefully to win some trophies.”

He has never played at Providence Park before. I hope he gets a nice welcome tomorrow. A warm welcome has already been provided by long-time friends Kamal Miller and James Pantemis. “Those are my guys. I was really excited to tell them the news and spend more time with them…Best times of my career I’ve had with those guys.”

It’s another smart inter-league acquisition from Grabavoy that fills a need. Good move.

The other late signing was Atlanta fullback Ronald Hernandez. I’m not going to do a full deep dive on him yet because the Venezuelan defender hasn’t had an introductory press conference. So I’ll go over the basics. Hernandez is a 28-year-old defender who spent 5 years in Atlanta. With 36 caps for the Venezuelan national team (Waterman has 17 for Canada) he fits the bill of an experienced international defender that the Timbers were targeting to fill the sudden right back vacancy. However, he hasn’t had the happiest of times recently with the Five Stripes. Limited to 10 appearances in all competitions in 2026 for a stumbling Atlanta team, he arrives in Portland as the most emergency of emergency replacements. His contract expires at the end of this season with an option for 2027. So he has 12 games (plus any potential playoff games) to prove whether or not he can get another year as Portland’s emergency right back. I don’t think there’s any reason to be discouraged by Hernandez’s arrival. From all the reports I’ve read and the various comments of Atlanta fans, he’s a great locker room presence whose commitment and effort cannot be questioned. A reasonable but unspectacular signing to close out the summer transfer window.

The Grabavoy Report

However, it has been a very chaotic week in the front office. After accepting Rangers’ bid for Kevin Kelsy, Ned Grabavoy decided that the rest of the season was an opportunity for Vincent Janssen and Gage Guerra to platoon at striker. But when this window goes into the historical record, I think it’s going to arrive with plenty of regret attached.

Here’s the full report from Grabavoy’s press conference on Thursday, broken down by topic.

Grabavoy’s thoughts on the summer window overall: “There were a number of things we needed to address. Over the last couple of weeks, the challenges for us were around some of the internal injuries of a few players within the group…How do we cover those areas? How do we provide more options because of the concerns around those injuries? I’m pleased with being able to do that, and it wasn’t the easiest thing to do within the league where teams don’t necessarily want to lose their players to competitors at this stage of the season…The biggest move of the window for us was the record sale of Kevin Kelsy for 13 million. Kevin’s had a great season, it’s a great opportunity for him…And we did look to be aggressive over the last two weeks. We looked at U22 attacking players, and two players specifically that we felt like really fit within our system, two players that Marti had highlighted as well. And unfortunately, we weren’t able to complete those for various reasons out of our control.”

Yeah, going through topic by topic is pretty boring. But it’s very unfortunate that two attacking U22s were earmarked for the Timbers but couldn’t get across the line due to reasons out of the club’s control. I think this window would be viewed in a different light if those signings were completed. But it’s no use mourning the loss of the unknown or the promised. The Timbers have to stick with what they have.

Or maybe not. Free agency is still open, and the Timbers could sign a free agent to fill their troubling lack of depth in the attack. “We do have funds and flexibility to potentially do something, but at the same time I think we do have options.” Grabavoy would mention that Alexander Aravena’s injury recovery timeline has been pushed up by a month, and he’s expected back in September instead of the previously assessed October. That’s good news, but I still wonder whether or not it’s enough. Eric Izoita was also name-dropped by Grabavoy. It appeared that the club was on the verge of signing him to a first-team deal in the last week before an injury against ATXII on Sunday forced him to be subbed off at halftime. That injury isn’t too serious either.

Although the club wasn’t able to secure two U22s in the summer, Grabavoy remains confident in the Timbers’ ability to bring young foreign talent to Portland. “They see our club now as being one that can really prop them up, give them the opportunities because we’re willing to do it.” Another reason why the Kelsy sale will be very successful in the long-term.

With a litany of contracts set to expire at the end of the season, Grabavoy mentioned two in particular: James Pantemis and Finn Surman. The general manager stated that both players are important to the team and contract talks have been ongoing throughout the season. Surman, however, is in a different boat. Per Grabavoy, the club turned down multiple offers for the World Cup goalscorer this summer. “He’s a very, very important part of our team and our culture. And he’s without question someone deserving of a new contract and someone that we ultimately want to commit to long-term as well.”

Some consternation has been raised about the club’s commitment to the 2/4 roster model. Grabavoy doesn’t believe that either roster model is the “right one” but he didn’t commit to keeping the 2/4 model through the sprint season. I think one reason that the club stuck with the 2/4 model was the $1M of discretionary GAM that they’ll receive. None of Kelsy’s outgoing transfer fee can be converted into GAM, because the roster rules are needlessly complicated.

Speaking of complicated roster rules, I asked Grabavoy about the cashfer rule. He mentioned that the club “went after another team’s player, which I think is a really good player, and we made a very, very strong offer, and we ultimately couldn’t land that player either.” I have no idea who this player is or who he might be or even the team that the Timbers tried to buy him from, but it is encouraging that the Timbers remain active on the cashfer front.

The first cashfer acquisition for the Timbers was Cole Bassett back in the winter. There’s been some concerns that Bassett would have to be a DP once he ages out of the U22 roster slot he’s currently occupying. Grabavoy took the time to say that Bassett would become a regular senior roster player, with the same designation being applied to Antony (both players lose their U22 status in this upcoming offseason. No need to panic about that.

Grabavoy is also proud of what T2 has accomplished so far this year and I bet he’s thankful that the final midseason summer window is finally over. Never again will MLS clubs have to lose key contributors in the middle of the season. I’ll save my overall thoughts on the window for a later section.

Tree Questions With Antony

Back on Tuesday, I caught up with Antony for the first time since mid-July. The Brazilian winger spent both observable training sessions with a big smile on his face. I think he gained some confidence from his last outing against Austin. So I wanted to hear more from Portland’s chief supersub.

Q: You won the penalty this past weekend, you grab the ball, you go to the penalty spot, Kris(toffer Velde) comes up to you, you guys have a conversation, and you place the ball down. How did that conversation play out?

A: “He asked me if I was confident, and if I was confident in being able to score the penalty. I told him yes, that I was ready to score, but he definitely wanted to take it.”

Q: So you place the ball down, you’re lining up for the kick. What about the goalkeeper’s behavior informed your decision about where to shoot?

A: “On the run-up, I had been watching the goalie’s right side of the goal, so his left. I was getting closer to the ball, and I noticed that he was starting to stutter towards his right. So then it was easy for me to decide to go the other way.”

Q: You’ve now spent a week and a half fully on the training pitch with Marti, how are you feeling about the way he’s been leading training and how well you’ve been adapting to his sessions?

A: “Well, as you may have seen today, all of our trainings under Marti have been very intense and competitive. The competitiveness that he brings, or the competitiveness that he transmits to us actually gives us joy to come to training. Even after such a bad loss. He gives us that confidence and that’s why we enjoy it.”

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Alex Bonetig and Diego Chara are available for selection. This is Kamal Miller’s 5th game with a yellow card warning, meaning that he will get one removed from his season total if he avoids a booking tomorrow.

The only change I’m projecting for tomorrow’s game is Janssen getting the start up top in place of Gage Guerra. It will be the Dutch striker’s first start for the Timbers. Elsewhere, things should remain familiar. Ronald Hernandez is expected to arrive at the training facility on Friday, which doesn’t give him enough time on the training ground to be in contention for a start. Maybe Joel Waterman could get the nod at right back, but I think that’s unlikely. A bounce-back from last weekend is expected.

Tactical Preview

A Good Start

After the Timbers failed to have another good start against Austin, I asked Marti Cifuentes for the indicators of what qualifies as a good start. “Create more chances than the opposition, try to play in the opposition pitch, make sure that the transitions are short when you lose the ball because mistakes are part of the game. We’re going to lose the ball. We’re going to lose sometimes the 1v1. And of course, dominate the basics. If you are not winning duels, if you are not tracking back 100%, if your reactions are a bit slow, then you start to concede more space and more time to the opposition.”

Let’s see if the Timbers can meet all of these criteria in tomorrow’s game. The slow starts were already pretty annoying before Cifuentes took over. I’m tired of continuously talking about slow starts and early Portland concessions. A good opening half-hour shouldn’t be a herculean task.

Set Pieces

Although Eric Ramsay is no longer in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, the Loons’ dead-ball proficiency didn’t leave with the Welshman. Only the Vancouver Whitecaps have recorded more set-piece xG than Minnesota this season. They’ve scored a goal from 36.7% of their dead balls in 2026, a figure that is only bettered by Austin and DC. The Loons have also scored 11 headed goals, which is the most in MLS.

However, Portland’s set-piece defense has largely been one of the least worrying parts of their season. They’ve only conceded 6 set piece goals from 6.27 set piece xGA. Yeah, I know, Austin’s late game-winner is still fresh in my mind too. But I think that the Timbers will bounce back from that disappointing concession and pitch a shutout on Minnesota set pieces. Can they limit the Loons in open play too? Hopefully, but defending Minnesota begins and ends on dead balls.

Back Three Lessons

Austin lined up with a back three against the Timbers last weekend, and they were able to use their wide center backs to progress the ball through carrying. However, those wide center backs are natural fullbacks and used to running with the ball at their feet. Minnesota’s outside center back options are, in fact, center backs. So cutting off passing lanes and pressuring them on the ball will be crucial.

On the defensive end of the pitch, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jose Caicedo was assigned to man-mark Joaquin Pereyra. I do worry about the amount of space that could be opened in the midfield if Caicedo gets dragged out of position by the clever Argentine. Hopefully the Colombian midfielder is holding the structure more than dropping deep into the backline, in a departure from the gameplan against Austin. The Timbers should not be affording Minnesota the same amount of time and space on the ball that Austin got. It’s a good opportunity to see what lessons were learned from last weekend’s ugly defeat.

Matchday Info

Broadcast Bulletin

English: Tony Husband & Ross Smith

Spanish: Raul Guzman

Home Radio Broadcast from 105.1 The Fan: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Good to see Tony and Ross get the call for tomorrow’s game. They’re usually in charge of Nashville matches, but Nashville’s Friday night trip to Yankee Stadium frees them up for this crucial Western Conference match.

Referee Report

Filip Dujic’s 2026 stats: 14 games, 25.5 fouls/game, 0.36 penalties/game, 4.21 yellows/game, 0.29 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: April 27, 2025 @LAG 4-2 W

Technically, there are only two “star” referees employed by PRO. Ismail Elfath and Drew Fischer regularly get the opportunity to officiate games at the highest level of the sport. But Dujic got himself a viral moment in 2025 during an announcement of a VAR decision. I’d argue that Dujic is one of the top match officials in MLS, and the 4-2 win in Carson he oversaw last year was the best officiating performance during any Timbers game over the past two seasons. Good to see him get the nod for a game against a very unethical opponent.

Series History

Historical record: 5-4-11, -6 goal differential

Home record: 5-2-3, +5 goal differential

Current streak: 1 loss

Current home streak: 2 unbeaten

The Portland Timbers have never beaten Minnesota on the road, but they’ve fared pretty well against the Loons at Providence Park. After ceding the fortress to Austin last weekend, they’re going to have to continue rebuilding it tomorrow. 

Table Time

This is how the Western Conference looks at the end of the summer window. The Timbers are six points behind 6th-placed St. Louis, who improved the squad over the summer. So did Colorado and San Diego. A win could see the Timbers climb as high as 7th, while they could fall to 13th with a loss. Every point matters as the final sprint begins.

Final Whistle

And this final sprint has been set in motion by a very unfortunate summer transfer window. If I had to give it a grade, I’d call it “D” for “disappointing.”

Despite the Timbers’ poor defensive record in 2026, I’m not too concerned about the defense after the window shut. I think that a consistent structure and philosophy is the primary need for the Timbers to stop conceding goals like it’s going out of style.

But the attack is very concerning. Depending on the quality of the supposed U22 additions, I’d probably bump up Portland’s window to a C or C+. However, I remain incredibly concerned about Portland’s right wing. Lassiter has done some heroic work playing out of position on the right, and Antony’s much more suited to the left wing. That area of the pitch was desperately in need of a DP-level upgrade, but it appears that a DP RW wasn’t on the shopping list.

It’s hard not to think about 2024 when assessing this transfer window. In a similar vein, more attacking outgoings than incomings constituted Portland’s summer business in 2024. The same criteria applies to 2026. What happened down the stretch in 2024? Portland’s star attackers, who had been carrying the team back from the brink since May, simply ran out of gas at the tail end of the season. I worry about history repeating itself, and not enough depth in the attack to cover for potential injuries. They really needed to get at least one of the admitted U22 attackers over the line. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to get any. It’s the window of missed opportunities, except for the player that set the club-record outgoing transfer fee and the head coach who is set to lead the Timbers into the uncertain MLS future. Maybe this transfer window is actually a “C” and I’m just being harsh. But it doesn’t feel harsh right now. Disappointment is the primary feeling, from the front office down to the fans in the stands. 

Tomorrow night is “Goose Hollow Night.” The first 10,000 fans in attendance will receive this cute little goose keychain.

Is it a coincidence that the Timbers are celebrating a bird on the same night that they’re playing the Loons? Maybe. I’m not reading too much into it though. There are more important things to worry about.

Momentum has been a funny thing over the past month and a half. The return from the World Cup break immediately brought a legendary victory against the Seattle Sounders, and 10 points from 12 games (with another win against Seattle) before the World Cup break. Cifuentes finally took over before the final game of Leagues Cup, and more growing pains have followed in the 4 MLS games the Timbers have played since their permanent head coach took his place in the dugout. The Kelsy sale was a slight jog in the momentum, and the anticlimactic end to the summer transfer window seems to have killed it entirely. But is that the realistic and logical view, or the purely emotional one?

The chance for the Timbers to reverse the swing of the past week and a half begins tomorrow against a Minnesota team that they should be beating. That sentence was true against Austin last weekend, and the Timbers found a way to drop points twice in that game. More than ever, they need to show that the Austin defeat was an aberration and not the norm. Over the long-term, that game won’t be the norm. But results are needed now, especially with a week of six-pointers on the horizon. The climb continues.