Portland Timbers-New York Red Bulls Preview (9/13)

The international break is over. It won’t be the final international break of the MLS season. Ugh. But the league is back, and so are the Timbers. For the first time in a month, they’ll be at home. Their opponent? Last year’s MLS Cup runner-up: the New York Red Bulls.

The Red Bulls Report

In May 2022, these two teams met at Red Bull Arena and played a very forgettable 1-1 draw. The Red Bulls finished 2022 with a 4th placed finish in the Eastern Conference. That allowed New York to keep their playoff streak alive. You can’t mention the Red Bulls without talking about their playoff streak. Starting in 2011, the Red Bulls have qualified for the playoffs in every year leading up to the present day. That’s a streak of 15 years. 2022’s playoff voyage ended in heartbreak as upstart FC Cincinnati took a 2-1 lead due to an Aaron Long error. Gerhard Struber’s best regular season in charge of the Red Bulls ended in disappointment, and 2023 was even worse.

The Red Bulls made the playoffs in 2023. Well, technically they scraped into them. New York began 2023 by winning 1 of their first 11 games. That cost Struber his job. Interim coach Troy Lesesne took over for the remainder of the season and got the Red Bulls into the newly expanded playoffs as the 8 seed. This was the first year of MLS’ widely-panned 3-game First Round structure, and the Red Bulls were able to advance to that round by thumping Charlotte 5-2 in the Wild Card game. Good for them. However, that led to a rematch with Cincinnati (2023’s Shield winners) in that controversial First Round. And controversy became the main story. Cincy offered a thumping in Game 1 (3-0 win at TQL with 3 total shots on target) before taking Game 2 on a penalty shootout. But everyone remembers this series purely for what happened with Matt Miazga. 

The former Red Bull player was now suiting up for Cincy, and decided to play the villain. In stoppage time of Game 2, he picked up a yellow card for dissent. Those things happen in a ballgame. But in the penalty shootout, he decided to be even stupider. He was Cincy’s 6th taker, and had the opportunity to give the Garys an advantage in sudden-death. His penalty was scored, and he blew kisses to the crowd at Red Bull Arena. This earned him a second yellow card, and a resulting 3-game suspension for misconduct. In hindsight, it’s pretty dumb for an incident like this to result in the same length of suspension as a certain player in a pink jersey spitting on a staff member for an opposing team. But the suspension ended Miazga’s season, and Cincy’s season ended when the Columbus Crew broke their hearts in the Eastern Conference Final (very funny). 

New York’s playoff streak was sitting pretty at 14, but the hollowness of this run was apparent. Despite playing in the biggest market in the country, the Red Bulls weren’t able to parlay their regular-season success into a capture of MLS’ premier trophy. The 2018 team (featuring the likes of Bradley Wright-Phillips, Kaku, Tim Parker, Tyler Adams, and Luis Robles) won the Shield and are widely considered to be the most complete Red Bulls team of the modern (post-2011) era. Their postseason dreams ended in heartbreak as well. Entering 2024, New York hadn’t reached MLS Cup since 2008. With another middling offseason (the only headline being the arrival of DP attacking midfielder Emil Forsberg from sister club RB Leipzig) it looked like 2024 was going to follow the same script as most 2020s NYRB seasons: playoff qualification and a loss in the First Round.

The 2024 Red Bulls started out hot, and only had three losses by May 18th. Those losses came to the defending champion Columbus Crew, the Inter Miami vanity project, and their rivals who played across the river in two different baseball stadiums. New coach Sandro Schwarz started to break away from the Energy Drink high-pressing style throughout the season, and this earned the Red Bulls a spot in the playoffs as the 7 seed. Heading into the First Round series against the defending champs, it looked like the script was about to be followed. But then something happened. The Red Bulls, who are synonymous with aggression, entered the playoffs and decided to be pragmatic.

10 days before their opening playoff game, the Red Bulls lost 3-2 to Columbus at home on Decision Day. Within the first 15 minutes, the Crew had a 2-0 lead. Forsberg scored twice in the final 15 minutes to tie the game before Evgen Cheberko scored the winner deep into stoppage time. Consider that a practice run. In Game 1, Columbus dominated the ball but were unable to cancel out Felipe Carballo’s 25th-minute go-ahead goal. Goalkeeper Carlos Coronel made 8 saves in the shutout, and now the pressure was on Columbus heading into Game 2. The Crew struck first in the 55th minute, but DP disappointment and certified racist Dante Vanzeir tied the game 9 minutes later. An 80th-minute Forsberg penalty gave the Red Bulls the lead, but Christian Ramirez’s last-gasp equalizer sent the game to penalties. For the second year in a row, the Red Bulls were entering a penalty kick shootout against an Ohio team at home. John Tolkin was up first for New York, and missed his kick. Columbus scored their next four, and Cheberko (the Decision Day hero) just had to score his to force a Game 3. But Cheberko’s weak effort was saved, and Forsberg sent the game to sudden-death. Three saves followed in sudden-death (two for Coronel and one for Columbus’ Patrick Schulte) before academy player Daniel Edelman won the game and series with his pressure-packed penalty. The Red Bulls had knocked out the defending champs. In doing so, they advanced past the first round for the first time since 2018. That was the year they won the Shield, and their campaign ended at the hands of Atlanta United (a team of destiny) in the Eastern Conference Final. But there were no expectations entering the 2024 playoffs. With several better teams in front of them (Miami and Cincinnati chief among them) the Red Bulls were effectively playing with house money. After all, they’d probably have to play Cincy in the Conference Semifinals anyway. Was the stage set for 2023’s revenge?

Something crazy happened in the Eastern Conference during the first round of the 2024 playoffs. None of the top 3 teams were able to advance to the Conference Semis. The Red Bulls conquered the Crew, Cincinnati fell to NYCFC, and Miami was famously beaten by Atlanta in a series that spanned all three games. House money no longer applied, because the Red Bulls were drawn against the Baseball Boys from across the river in the Conference Semis. 

Pragmatism delivered an upset victory against the defending champs in the first round. Revenge was also a factor, because the Baseball Boys beat NYRB twice in the regular season. Using both of these energy sources, the Red Bulls traveled to Citi Field for the first-ever playoff meeting between the blue side of New York and the red side. By the way, I don’t rate the Hudson River Derby as a major rivalry in the league. It reminds me of Manchester. Two clubs, one red and one blue, who actually have bigger rivals in other cities (Liverpool, or in this case Philadelphia). But it technically is a derby, and playoff derbies usually provide spectacular moments. The 2016 ECF clash between Toronto and Montreal is widely considered to be the greatest playoff series in MLS history (due to a large amount of East Coast bias and the inability to recognize a spectacularly executed car show) and Cincinnati’s home choke to the Crew one season prior was still a fresh memory to many people who put on a MLS hat during the playoffs and root for chaos. In this case, the rule of “funniest possible outcome” applied. When choosing a side to root for in a playoff game with no clear rooting interest, rooting for the road team (especially in a rivalry game) is always the correct choice. 

It only took sixteen minutes for the spectacular moment to arrive. Timbers fans are undoubtedly familiar with this goal. Carballo, one of the heroes from the Columbus series, unleashed a rocket from outside the box that beat Matt Freese and gave the Red Bulls the lead. Nothing was more pragmatic than this goal. It came from a launched goal kick, and Carballo won the THIRD ball (not the second) before teeing up the shot. Vanzeir doubled New York’s lead in the 25th minute from a corner kick, and the Red Bulls defended the rest of the way to clinch a spot in the Eastern Conference Final. Coronel had another immense game, and suddenly the Red Bulls were knocking on the door of MLS Cup.

The top three teams in the East all lost in the first round, but 4th-seeded Orlando survived 2 penalty shootouts against Charlotte and defeated rival Atlanta to advance to the Eastern Conference Final. The Lions, despite being one of the most consistent teams in MLS since joining the league in 2015, had never advanced to the league’s championship game. Orlando’s quest for another major piece of silverware would have to wait another year as the Red Bulls pragmatically defeated them 1-0 and advanced to MLS Cup. The winning goal was scored by Andres Reyes, who headed home a Tolkin free-kick aimed at the back post.

The Los Angeles Galaxy’s path to MLS Cup was very different. While the Red Bulls spent the postseason relying on their goalkeeper and set pieces, LA was blowing teams out of the water. This set up a classic clash for the title game: unstoppable force vs. immovable object. New York’s team was full of immovable objects. Coronel, who stood on his head throughout the path that led them to this point. Carballo; the midseason acquisition and the scorer of two crucial postseason goals. Forsberg, whose midseason return from injury provided fuel to an attack that seriously struggled in his absence. But the most important change during this playoff run was Schwarz’s decision to switch to a back three. This cleared a spot in the starting eleven for Reyes, who acted as the team’s supersweeper. The Red Bulls had the opportunity to turn this unlikely run into the club’s first MLS Cup.

However, two of those immovable objects were not on the field when the opening whistle blew. Carballo missed the ECF with an injury, and couldn’t make the matchday roster. Reyes was there, and was listed as a starter when the lineups dropped. However, he was mysteriously scratched prior to kickoff and was replaced by Noah Eile. Coronel, the best goalkeeper throughout the postseason, made an error on LA’s first goal. Eile, forced into a starting role, made an error on the second. Both goals were scored before 15 minutes had passed. In the 28th minute, Sean Nealis scored from a corner kick to pull a goal back. The Red Bulls, whose playoff run relied on scoring first, were unable to find a second goal. Their improbable run came to an end at the final hurdle.

That run was oddly similar to what the Timbers did in 2018. Beating their rivals in the Conference Semis, get the job done on the road in the Conference Final, and lose to the (far superior) 2nd seed in the other conference in the title game. But the Red Bulls certainly had momentum, and it was time to capitalize on it in the winter transfer window. So they signed 35-year-old Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting to be their new DP striker.

The Red Bulls’ striker history since the departure of Wright-Phillips has been fascinating. Patryck Klimala and Vanzeir each had opportunities to replace the legendary BWP, and neither could fill his massive shoes. In the meantime, academy striker Brian White was traded to Vancouver for pennies and has proven to be a consistent goalscorer. Choupo-Moting looked like a flop upon announcement, but is currently the team’s top scorer with 15 goals (5 penalties). In a league that has seemed to move past the “Aged European Star” model when it comes to acquisitions, the Red Bulls seemingly have gotten this transfer right.

But the rest of the window featured more outgoings than incomings. It was revealed that Reyes simply didn’t want to play in MLS Cup, and he was traded to San Diego. Backup striker Elias Manoel was traded to Real Salt Lake, refused to play for RSL, and left days after the transfer was announced. Tolkin was sold to Bundesliga side Holstein Kiel, and was probably a little confused that he had to travel around (not across) the globe to get there. To cap it off, Vanzeir was sold back to Belgium. Oddly enough, the Red Bulls opted to go with the DP roster model until the summer window. Carballo was still on the team, but was now a TAM player instead of using the DP slot he occupied in the second half of 2024. 

Some teams are bad. Some are good. Some are intriguing. The 2025 Red Bulls (11-7-11, 40 points, 10E/16S) are none of those things. They are the least interesting team in the entire league.

Schwarz’s second year has featured a total of zero memorable moments. Choupo-Moting has scored quite a few goals, Forsberg has been another good MLS player (I kind of question how much of a “star” he truly is), and young players like Cameron Harper, Omar Valencia, and Eile have been interesting to watch. But this team is the equivalent of a Create-A-Guy. When the summer window approached, they opted to leave their DP spot empty. Carballo’s loan ended, forward Andy Rojas and midfielder Gustav Berggren joined, and John McCarthy was acquired to be Coronel’s backup. Coronel, meanwhile, has been one of the top goalkeepers in the league this season. But without a new DP, this roster is incomplete. And as they sit in 10th place, their precious playoff streak is in serious jeopardy. LA’s post-Cup hangover is easily explainable; a serious salary cap-related roster teardown and the absence of their best player due to injury. But the Red Bulls had an opportunity to build on their surprising Cup run and chose to squander it. 

NYRB Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

The biggest news is Morgan’s status. He hasn’t played in a game since June 25th. Two other attackers (Hall and Bogacz) are questionable, and Harper has been ruled out.

I’m relatively confident in this prediction. The front four should be written in Sharpie. But the back six is a bit questionable with several players similar in skill level jostling for those spots. Edelman, Eile, and Coronel are sure-fire starters. The rest are toss-ups depending on what structure Schwarz wants to employ. Usually, they operate out of a 4-2-3-1 but changed to a 5-4-1 for their last game against Columbus. 

The Timbers Report

It’s good to be home. For the first time in a month, the Portland Timbers (10-9-9, 39 points, 7W/17S) will play a game at Providence Park. During the past two weeks, the squad has been training and getting a little bit of non-soccer fun. Notably, a group outing to a local go-kart arena provided some extra bonding time. “A lot of guys spoke a big game. Some guys owned up to their big talk and some didn’t really follow through. I won’t name names, but it was good. It was nice to have a team bonding event.” Those are the words of James Pantemis, who participated. Phil Neville offered another perspective. “Some horrendous drivers in our group, I’ve got to say, horrendous. They shouldn’t be allowed on the road.” To add another perspective, there’s a reason why a speedometer is placed at the entrance to the training facility. But that’s a story for another time. Not every player was available to race some go-karts though. Some were with their national teams during a crucial international window.

International Report

Every Timber player who featured for their national team over the past two weeks had something at stake. So let’s go through them.

Finn Surman’s New Zealand qualified for the World Cup back in March. I’m of the opinion that Surman is a sure-fire starter for the Kiwis, so he didn’t have a positional battle to win during this window. Pride is always at stake during these windows, and even more so when the opponent is your international rival. New Zealand played Australia twice and lost both games. Surman played 15 minutes in the first one (1-0) and played the entirety of the second (3-1). The gulf between Australia and New Zealand is rather large on the pitch, and the Kiwis will certainly be looking for revenge next time they meet.

Maxime Crepeau is in the middle of a positional battle for club and country. The Canadian shot-stopper was in line to start for the national team for the 2022 World Cup, but the broken leg suffered in the 2022 MLS Cup Final forced him to miss the tournament entirely. Next year’s World Cup will be on home soil, so the battle with Dayne St. Clair continued during this window. Canada’s first game was a 3-0 victory against Romania in Bucharest, and Crepeau had a stellar performance. Reports began to circulate that Crepeau would miss the next game after “getting hit in the face with a ball” during a training session. Sure enough, St. Clair started against Wales (a 1-0 Canadian victory) with Crepeau out of the squad. Canadian national team fans prefer Crepeau to St. Clair, and blame the Minnesota goalkeeper for their disappointing Gold Cup result. The irony is not lost on me.

Ariel Lassiter is a regular contributor for Costa Rica, and Los Ticos are still in the process of qualifying for the World Cup. 

Costa Rica drew twice (1-1 in Nicaragua and 3-3 against Haiti), so there’s a lot at stake for November’s matches. Lassiter played a combined 20 minutes across both games, mostly in second-half stoppage time.

Crepeau had the biggest personal stake in this window, but Kevin Kelsy was playing with the hope of a nation on his shoulders. Venezuela has never qualified for a World Cup, and their chances were slim (but not dead) heading into this window. A loss against Argentina was a foregone conclusion (3-0), and so was a loss against Colombia (6-3). But if other results went in their favor, they could advance to the playoff round of qualifiers against non-CONMEBOL nations. However, Bolivia’s shocking victory against Brazil dropped Venezuela out of the playoff spot. It’s a rough blow, but Kelsy made his senior international debut in the Colombia game. A bittersweet moment for the young striker, who really wanted to keep the hopes of his countrymen alive.

Another SEI

One major event also happened during this international break. To explain it, a rewind to the Minnesota game is needed. In the 18th minute, Felipe Carballo is trying to win the ball when he lands awkwardly and the referee blows for a foul on Minnesota. This looked relatively innocuous, and Carballo got up after staying on the ground for two minutes. However, he went to ground again in the 40th minute due to an (unintentional) elbow from Minnesota’s Joaquin Pereyra. He stayed down for another two minutes before being substituted. Once again, it appeared that the injury wasn’t too serious and his substitution erred on the side of caution.

Six days ago, he broke the news himself. During that Minnesota game, Carballo suffered an ACL tear. What seemed innocuous was the worst possible outcome. 

For the player, this is devastating. Carballo was on loan with an option to buy, and it’s highly doubtful that the option gets picked up in the wake of this injury. He has the talent to play at the international level, and he was out of favor at Gremio. 

Portland went from having three DPs to having two. Neville declared on Tuesday that the competition for the midfield places was still ongoing even with a healthy Carballo. Now the pressure is on for one of the other midfielders to rise to the occasion and lay claim to the starting spot alongside David Ayala.

The Timbers did not sign a direct replacement for Carballo. The roster freeze went into effect today, and there was no way to use a SEI tag for the Uruguayan because the other Uruguayan on the roster is currently occupying it. 

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Looks like the ball that hit Crepeau in the head was hit pretty damn hard.

Surman should be recovered from the daunting travel to and from Oceania. My pick for the Carballo replacement (in this game) is Paredes. Keeping the Zuparic-Surman pairing is paramount. The second line behind Mora (who should start on full rest) will be very fluid with a lot of positional interchanges.

Tactical Preview

Creating Tensions

Portland leads the league in progressive carries. No team relies more on dribbling than the Timbers. I expect the dribbles to continue, but they won’t be as effective without some basic (but potentially lethal) off-ball work.

When a dribbler is carrying the ball directly at a defender, the defender doesn’t have to make a choice about what to do. Usually the defender will decide to stop the dribbler directly. However, a player running alongside the dribbler creates a problem: who should the defender mark in this 2v1 scenario? 

On Portland’s left wing, Da Costa and Antony have been doing this all season. In tomorrow’s game, that split-second of hesitation when the defender makes their choice will be very important. The Timbers carry the ball a lot, but they don’t always make the correct choice about what to do next. 

The decision that the defender has to make is known as a “tension.” Most opposition defenders aren’t forced into a lot of tensions because of the way that Portland attacks. Tomorrow’s game is an excellent time to put opposing defenders in difficult situations and stay one foot ahead of them mentally. 

Second Balls

New York is caught between being a pressing team and a possession team. The pragmatism from last season’s playoff run is gone as the team tries to find its true identity. Having said that, I don’t expect the Timbers to be facing a typically severe Red Bulls press tomorrow. It’s more likely that they opt to sit deep and hit on the counter instead of playing front-footed pressing soccer.

This presents another unique challenge for the Timbers, particularly how they set up defensively. Vacuuming up second balls will be crucial. New York has made their living on second balls over the past decade, but the Timbers will have home-field advantage. I’m very interested to see how they line up out-of-possession.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Max Bretos & Brian Dunseth

Spanish: Pablo Ramirez & Jesus Bracamontes

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Joe Dickerson’s 2025 stats: 12 games, 27.83 fouls/game, 0.25 penalties/game, 4.25 yellows/game, 0.17 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: September 29th, 2024 @VAN 1-1 D

Series History

Historical record: 2-4-5, -8 goal differential

Home record: 1-2-2, -2 goal differential

Current streak: 3 winless

Current home streak: 1 loss

Table Time

Three games were played last weekend, and Austin has finally caught up to the Timbers in terms of games played. Austin’s victory in Kansas propelled them above Portland. Now the Timbers are in 7th, but they can’t drop any lower than that this weekend. However, they could climb to 5th with a win and if other results go their way. It could also create some more breathing room between them and the Wild Card spots, particularly because Colorado and Houston play each other.

Final Whistle

One other aspect of Carballo’s injury is the lack of a home debut for the Uruguayan. This really sucks, y’all.

Meanwhile, Velde and Mati Rojas should make their home debuts tomorrow. It’s Portland’s first home game in a month, and there are only three left during the regular season.

Simply put, the Timbers have to win tomorrow. It doesn’t have to be a bludgeoning, but three points is the most important aspect of tomorrow’s game. Portland hasn’t won a home game since July 5th (league results only, Leagues Cup doesn’t count). In addition, the Red Bulls are putrid on the road (1-4-9 record in 2025). This is not a game that they should be losing. Period. The climb continues.