Portland Timbers-San Diego FC Preview (10/18)

You can try to run. You can try to hide. But Decision Day comes for us all. The final day of the MLS regular season is here. For the Portland Timbers, their task is relatively simple: beat San Diego.

The San Diego Report

Can you believe that San Diego FC has only played 5 games since drawing 0-0 with the Timbers on August 23rd? At a time in the season where teams are desperately trying to build momentum, Los Plasticos only had 5 games on the schedule to do so. Let’s see how it worked out for them.

Their next test following the scoreless draw with the Timbers was their inaugural trip to BMO Stadium in Los Angeles. San Diego dominated possession 58-42, but were outshot 16-6. However, those are the raw stats, and goals are the only thing that matter in soccer. Two of those six shots found the back of the net. Hirving Lozano nullified Denis Bouanga’s 15th minute opener in the 33rd minute, and Anders Dreyer’s 66th-minute strike gave Los Plasticos the win and the season sweep against LAFC. It was LAFC’s first loss in the Son Heung-Min era, and their only loss with Son in the starting lineup.

The September international break lasted two weeks, and Los Plasticos welcomed Minnesota to town. San Diego, in theory, is set up to succeed at home and on the road. Minnesota, meanwhile, is built to always play as a road team. This game followed the blueprint to a T. San Diego outpossessed Minnesota 66-34, and took 28 shots compared to the Loons’ 6. Per the blueprint, Minnesota won 3-1. The highlight of this game was Minnesota debutant Nectarios Triantis scoring a worldie from the center circle to increase the lead to 3 in second-half stoppage time. This was a game that San Diego needed to win to try and clinch the top spot in the West.

Next up was a trip to the Factory of Sadness: Atlanta. This script was pretty similar to their 2-1 victory in Los Angeles (winning the possession battle while being outshot) but the Five Stripes scraped a draw due to a Miguel Almiron penalty. 

These final two games are spectacular for completely different reasons. Let’s begin with a 1-0 loss at home to San Jose. Josef Martinez scored in the 14th minute and the Earthquakes parked the bus for the rest of the game. San Diego dominated the ball (72-28) and outshot San Jose 19-7. The full smash-and-grab experience; orchestrated by Bruce Arena. 

Back on July 5th, Houston and San Diego played an outstanding game that featured 4 lead changes. The Dynamo won that game thanks to Ezequiel Ponce’s goal in the 10th minute of second-half stoppage time. The reverse fixture was played 3 months later, and it was another MLS After Dark classic. Dreyer scored a 53rd minute penalty to tie the game at 1. But the fireworks arrived late. In the 85th minute, Luca de la Torre scored a probable winner. Two minutes later, Sergio Santos found the back of the net for the Dynamo to equalize. Dreyer promptly struck again two minutes after Santos’ equalizer. That’s three goals in four minutes, and a lead for San Diego. Of course, an inordinate amount of stoppage time was required. In the 13th minute of said stoppage time, Amahl Pellegrino scored his first goal for Los Plasticos to completely ice the game. 

San Diego’s outstanding inaugural season (18-6-9, 60 points, 2W/5S) stands alone for a notable reason. Sure, 60 points is a massive milestone. But the way they’ve been able to stack those points is unique.

34 of those 60 points have been earned on the road. With a sparkling road record of 11-1-4, San Diego is a better team away from home. This is almost unheard of for a first-year MLS team. St. Louis, Charlotte, Austin, and Miami were significantly worse on the road than they were at home during their inaugural seasons. Nashville is an exception (sort of), but success as a first-year club is predicated on turning your home stadium into a fortress. San Diego’s home record is solid (7-5-5, 18th in the league) but they have a chance to finish with the best road record in the league if they win or draw tomorrow. That’s incredible. Mikey Varas won’t win Coach of the Year due to the presence of a Danish man on Vancouver’s sideline, but his work with this roster in Year One is worthy of that award in almost every other season. 

SDFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Saidi is a youth player and Verhoeven is buried on the fullback depth chart. McNair could play, but he’s not first-choice at the position even when healthy.

San Diego is playing for the top spot in the West, so I’m expecting a full-strength team. Bombino, McVey, Duah, and Kumado comprise their best backline. Tverskov has been the best defensive midfielder in the entire league. Valakari and Godoy offer good balance in the midfield ahead of Tverskov, but Luca de la Torre could start in place of either. Dreyer and Lozano are Sharpied in. The striker position is interesting. Baird was excellent in the first meeting between Portland and San Diego, but winter signing Marcus Ingvartsen is fully healthy after missing every game since August 17th. Amahl Pellegrino was a late addition from San Jose, and he’s been getting time as the lone striker in Varas’ 4-3-3. San Diego has an identity and options off the bench. 

The Timbers Report

The Portland Timbers (11-11-11, 44 points, 7W/16S) qualified for the postseason after Vancouver’s 4-1 victory over San Jose. That’s pretty good news, but they still have more work to do in order to avoid the Wild Card Game. Dodging another one-game playoff will require a win on Decision Day; something that the Timbers have struggled with for years.

A Day of Dread

Let’s take a brief moment and flash back to November 7th, 2021. The Portland Timbers defeated Austin FC by a score of 3-0. They were already destined to finish as the 4th-placed team in the Western Conference. Because their final table position was already secured, it was a relatively stress-free Decision Day for the Timbers. Everyone knows what happened next. Three consecutive playoff wins and a heartbreaking loss in MLS Cup. Since that stormy day in Portland, the Timbers have been unable to deliver in high-leverage situations.

In 2022, the Timbers traveled to Salt Lake City for Decision Day. Portland needed to win to secure a playoff spot. They lost 3-1 in a game that was over from the opening whistle. The 2023 Timbers used a strong September to get back into the playoff picture, but a 4-1 loss in Montreal forced them to need a win on Decision Day against Houston at Providence Park. They lost 3-1 in a game that was over from the opening whistle. They also were knocked out at home in both Leagues Cup (a credible 1-0 loss to Monterrey) and the Open Cup (a very dumb but entertaining 4-3 loss to RSL). 

2024 was different. The Timbers secured a spot in the knockout stage of Leagues Cup for the second consecutive year. They lost 3-1 in a game that was over from the opening whistle. Maybe things weren’t different after all. As they continued to climb towards a playoff spot, their first opportunity to clinch a guaranteed postseason berth was on October 2nd against Austin. The Timbers hadn’t been in the playoffs for a couple of seasons, and now there were some extra boondoggles to worry about.

The top 7 teams used to make the postseason in each conference. In 2023, the field was expanded to 9 and a Wild Card Game was added. The top 7 teams qualified automatically for the new First Round: a best-of-3 series. This change was really stupid, but it forced the Timbers to keep pushing for a top-7 spot in order to avoid a potential pitfall in the Wild Card Game.

They lost 1-0 to Austin. The Timbers had an opportunity to jump into 7th place and completely squandered it. A 0-0 draw against Dallas followed, and the Timbers were now locked into the Wild Card Game. Decision Day brought a trip to Seattle. Technically, the Timbers didn’t embarrass themselves. They drew 1-1 with their biggest rivals and brought home the Cascadia Cup. However, they ended the regular season in 9th place. Due to a scheduling conflict in Vancouver, the Timbers were able to host the Wild Card Game. Faced with another must-win game, the Timbers completely face-planted. A 5-0 loss at home in a playoff game to a rival is, to this day, the worst loss in club history. See, I told you 2024 was different!

In 2025, Portland’s inability to score has handicapped them in the final stretch of the season. They’re currently in the middle of a 4-game winless streak. Prior to that, they defeated the New York Red Bulls at home. That win ended ANOTHER 4-game winless streak. During this final stretch, their precocious ability to drop points has kept them from clinching a spot in the promised land: a top-7 spot.

Currently, the Timbers are in 7th place. They enter another Decision Day in control of their destiny. But, as recent history indicates, this is when they always fall short. The 2025 Timbers have been knocked out of two cup competitions already. A brutal 1-0 defeat in San Jose saw their Open Cup dreams shattered. Against Club America, their Leagues Cup journey came to an end when they couldn’t win a penalty shootout. They only have one avenue left to win a trophy. And they need to enter the postseason on a high note. 

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Fory is still questionable. Mosquera is a late add after featuring in each of Portland’s last two games. Surman scored on international duty by arriving at the back post and slamming into said back post. He trained in full on Thursday. Mati Rojas and James Pantemis are available after missing the Seattle game.

In terms of the injuries, I’m 100% confident in Surman’s health. I think Fory and Mosquera make the bench, but neither start. This allows the Timbers to create the optimal circumstances out wide: Smith-Velde on the left and Rojas-Antony on the right. Those partnerships worked wonders in the first half against Vancouver. Pantemis should reclaim the starting goalkeeper job, but Maxime Crepeau could make his second consecutive start. For the second straight year, the Timbers are entering Decision Day without a labeled first-choice goalkeeper. Chara is one start short of 400 for his career. I think he has to reach that milestone tomorrow. Mora gets the nod over Kelsy, but keep your eye out for some Gage Guerra minutes. He’s been one of the top performers in training over the last month.

Tactical Preview

Creating Chances

It felt like the bottom fell out against the Seattle Sounders. Portland were unable to create a single big chance against a team that was ripe for the taking. Their biggest attacking issues were on full display. Heavy touches, unnecessary touches, indecisiveness, an inability to attack with speed, and not enough players getting into the box. Here’s what Phil Neville had to say about the attacking woes:

“If you’d have asked me a month ago, I think we were creating clear-cut chances. The last couple of games, probably more half-chances. You look at the chances Seattle got, the half-chances, they had one big chance, we had one big chance apart from those half-chances. When you get to the big games, they become half-chances. That bit doesn’t worry me. The thing that we’ve worked on in the last 10 days, you know, I’ve made a real point of saying that we have a center forward on the pitch that we have to utilize more. We have to support more, we have to give them more. If I was a center forward in this team I’d be saying ‘I want better crosses, I want better passes forward. I want you to see the runs that I’m making.’ Kelsy makes incredible runs in behind. Pipe is a really good finisher in the box. Let’s get them more ammunition to be able to do what they do best.”

This is a good assessment. Portland’s second line has often been ignoring the striker. Well, at least when Kelsy is on the pitch. Mora has been getting more chances, but he’s been unable to convert any of them. 

It isn’t the quality of the service that gets me. It’s the lack of opportunistic service. The Timbers have been unwilling to hit early crosses and take advantage of retreating and disorganized backlines. San Diego does a lot of damage in transition, but they’re also vulnerable when they turn the ball over.

Attacking with speed is the most important key to success for tomorrow. Not just in terms of moving the ball from back to front, but with quick decisions around the box. If they do that, the goals will come.

The Late Show

That outstanding road record I mentioned earlier? San Diego has been able to achieve these lofty heights by getting in the right places at the right times. Their ability to score timely equalizers and winners on the road has buoyed their season. In 2 of their last 3 road wins, they’ve scored an equalizer and a winner in the 80th minute or later.

Portland has an unfortunate habit of dropping points late in games. Since Leagues Cup, they’ve dropped 6 points due to goals conceded in the 85th minute or later. This is a true playoff test, and the Timbers will need to treat it like one. I expect this game to be competitive up until the final whistle. Can the Timbers manage a late lead? 

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Max Bretos & Brian Dunseth

Spanish: Diego Pessolano & Daniel Chapela

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 6:00 PM PST

Referee Report

Victor Rivas’ 2025 stats: 22 games, 22.64 fouls/game, 0.32 penalties/game, 4.32 yellows/game, 0.32 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: June 13, 2025 vs. SJ 1-1 D

Series History

Historical record: 0-1-0, 0 goal differential

Home record: first meeting

Current streak: 1 unbeaten

Table Time/Fun With Scenarios

Decision Day in the West is pretty uneventful aside from the usual jostling for seeding. The top four are already set in stone, and so are spots 5 and 6. However, 1v8 and 2v7 are taking place on Decision Day. Vancouver is in the driver’s seat for first place. All they need is any kind of result against Dallas to clinch it. San Diego is in contention for the top spot, but they need Dallas to win and a victory against Portland. The Timbers will clinch 7th place with any positive result (win/draw). The lowest they could fall is 8th, but that possibility looks extremely unlikely.

Even a full-strength Dallas squad would have trouble with the Vancouver Whitecaps. However, Petar Musa and Logan Farrington are both suspended. Dallas desperately needs to win to clinch a postseason berth because RSL, Colorado, and San Jose are still alive. I won’t bore you with the details of what could happen to the Wild Card teams. RSL travels to St. Louis, Colorado hosts LAFC, and San Jose hosts Austin. It doesn’t look good for Colorado, but I’m predicting a bit of chaos in spots 8-11. It’s Decision Day! Anything can happen. 

Final Whistle

If the Timbers win tomorrow, they will match 2024’s point tally of 47. They will also have an identical record to the 2024 team (12-11-11). Will tomorrow teach us something about the big picture? Or is it simply a game where the result will speak the loudest?

This team is desperate for a win. Given the quality of the opponent, three points is a much bigger statement than any performance metric could indicate. They could get played off the field by San Diego tomorrow. They could dominate Los Plasticos on their home field. But a victory is the most important outcome. The climb continues.