Portland Timbers-St. Louis City Preview (9/9)

This is MLS’ final season with the winter-fall calendar. When the schedule shifts next summer, major schedule changes are coming.

An emphasis on divisional-based scheduling will group teams together in relatively geographically-friendly pods. Those teams will play home-and-away, with the non-divisional opponents getting 1 matchup per season. This includes every non-conference opponent. So the classic home-and-away bouts with fellow Western Conference teams are about to disappear.

The Portland Timbers have faced every single one of their Western Conference foes this season. Well, except for one. St. Louis City will make their final annual trip to Providence Park tomorrow. And they’re currently the hottest team in MLS.

The Ravioli Report

We have to go back over a year to find the last time these two teams played. In a rather weird scheduling quirk, both Portland-St. Louis matchups in 2025 were featured on Sunday Night Soccer. The first of which was highlighted by a brilliant Antony goal and a David Ayala stoppage-time winner, while the second was a disappointing defeat in a thick and humid Missouri soup. 

The latter of those two matchups (the disappointing soup game) occurred before the 2025 summer transfer window opened. That result knocked the Timbers out of the top 4 in the Western Conference. They never made it back.

Meanwhile, St. Louis was able to rise from 14th place in the West to 14th place in the West. It was their lone win during a terrible June-July stretch when they went 1-1-6. For the second straight season, they had fired their permanent head coach. Bradley Carnell got the sack on July 1st, 2024 and interim head coach John Hackworth managed to gather some momentum to lead the Raviolis to an encouraging 13th-placed finish. Yes, 13th was encouraging. Olof Mellberg (whose first name autocorrects to “oof” in my phone) was hired in the offseason, and he was fired in May 2025 after only 15 matches. He was so focused on defending that the attack suffered (and the defense was bad too). Instead of going back to Hackworth, David Critchley was named the interim. He couldn’t turn the season around, and the Raviolis finished 13th in the West for the second consecutive year (9 points out of 9th place). 

Now the Raviolis had to get serious. During another trademark summer purge, sporting director Lutz Pfannenstiel was fired. The wild German increased the Teutonic population in St. Louis over his time at the club, but two sacked managers spelled his doom. They were not able to win the league with a team full of 2. Bundesliga players. I’m shocked to hear this.

Pfannenstiel’s replacement was announced in early November. Corey Wray spent time with Toronto and Columbus as an assistant GM, and won three MLS Cups in that time. Then he became Montreal’s GM, where he won zero MLS Cups. But Wray was a highly-regarded front office member when St. Louis gave him another crack at the top front-office job for an organization that was willing to spend money. First, he needed to fill the head coaching vacancy. Columbus assistant coach Yoann Damet was hired in mid-December. The 35-year-old spent three years with Wilfried Nancy in Columbus, and set out to bring Nancyball to The Lou.

In order to do that, some roster changes would need to be made. Over the past two transfer windows, 15 players arrived and 17 departed the club. Let’s begin with the departures.

We’re cutting down the word count, folks. Kessler was expensive and injured. Alm was also injured. Morales could be upgraded. But the major departure was Klauss, who joined the Galaxy on a cashfer deal. This move opened up a DP slot. St. Louis fans were not happy with the club for selling their German-coded Brazilian striker, who scored the first actual goal in club history (Bill Tuiloma’s own goal was the first goal in St. Louis history).

Their winter business was shrewd. Aside from the biggest acquisition, of course. Klauss’ DP slot was filled by the loaned Cordova, who didn’t exactly inspire confidence from his two previous stints in MLS with Vancouver and RSL. But the other moves were very intriguing. Edelman had plenty of MLS experience with the Red Bulls. Wallem spent 2025 on loan with the Raviolis and impressed in a poor season for the club. Fall was a highly touted young defender with LAFC, but needed a fresh start after failing to get any game time with Barcelona. Polvara was brought in to be a midfielder, but quickly joined the backline and is one of the first names on the teamsheet.

St. Louis’ 2026 season did not get off to a good start. They didn’t taste victory until their 5th game of the season, and ended the Apertura with a 4-4-6 record, good enough for 12th place in the West. However, the Underlying Numbers loved this team.

The dotted line on this graph is St. Louis’ xGF (expected goals for). They spent the entirety of the Apertura underperforming on the attacking end. Cordova was responsible for part of it, but every attacker could shoulder some blame. Especially shithouse striker Simon Becher.

It is perfectly acceptable to laugh at this. St. Louis could have finished in the top half of the table if they could only find the back of the net. However, they finished the Apertura on a 4-game unbeaten streak. The first of these non-losses was a 1-0 win in Colorado, aided by a Sang-Bin Jeong goal in the 26th minute and a Rob Holding red card in the 51st. Then they went home and beat LAFC 2-1 four days later. A 1-0 lead in DC seemed to be on the cards before Joao Peglow’s 90th-minute equalizer. Luckily for St. Louis, a 90+6’ potential winner from Louis Munteanu was overturned by VAR. On May 23rd, the Raviolis exacted revenge on Austin with a 3-0 win at home. Their 2-0 defeat to the Broccolis was the loss that kickstarted this unbeaten run. They haven’t lost a game since.

That 4-game unbeaten streak has grown to 13, easily the longest mark in the league. Eduard Lowen secured a derby win against SKC with an 86th-minute penalty on the same Thursday night that the Timbers trounced 5eatt1e. Two more wins followed in Carson and against Colorado. On August 1st, a 1-1 draw against RSL was very disappointing. Cordova had returned to his parent club, and the Raviolis were still in desperate need of a striker.

Now the real fun can begin. St. Louis decided to capitalize on their momentum, but they had to deal with a couple of roadblocks first. That phrase cannot be applied to Cedric Teuchert, who flattered to deceive since arriving in the Lou in the summer of 2024. He was released on a free one day before Cordova’s loan expired. However, despite the upturn in form, a star player wanted to leave. Marcel Hartel, who had the stupidest goal celebration I’ve ever seen, wanted to go back to Germany in the summer. St. Louis was forced to do right by the player and accepted a very low transfer offer from Hannover 96. To replace Hartel, the Raviolis dipped into the Turkish market to sign forward Carlo Holse (henceforth known as Carl Holes) as a replacement DP. Hartel’s loss could be tolerated, although it made stomachs churn amongst the Ravioli fanbase. However, a worse gut-punch was about to follow.

Eduard Lowen has been through so much since arriving in St. Louis ahead of the 2023 season. He was instrumental in their inaugural campaign as they finished 1st in the West. In addition, the personal tragedy of his wife’s cancer diagnosis, treatment, and eventual passing brought him even closer to the fanbase. So St. Louis traded him to San Jose for a measly $500K in GAM. His contract expired at the end of 2026, and Damet was having trouble finding a definite role for him in the system. On paper, this trade makes sense.

However, it did not go well with St. Louis’ fanbase, who were very angry about a double German departure. No midfielder came in to replace Lowen before the deadline closed. But the Raviolis dug deep and pulled off two impressive transfers at the striker position. The first was a loan deal for Southampton striker Damion Downs. Now they had two strikers, but they wanted three. So they offered $12M plus add-ons for Colorado striker Rafael Navarro.

This deal made sense for both parties. The concept of a “Rafa denier” was pretty unfamiliar to people outside of Colorado, but there were some whispers that Navarro was only able to score when the team was winning by multiple goals. He missed a penalty kick in front of Grupo Frontera two and a half weeks ago. So the Rapids saw an opportunity to sell high, and St. Louis saw a striker who was relentless off the ball and could be relied upon to score the chances that Damet’s system could consistently create. The Brazilian striker is now the MLS record cashfer, relegating Evander’s $12M sale from Portland to Cincinnati to second place. 

St. Louis did not participate in Leagues Cup because they didn’t qualify for it. This gave them an extra week of rest before a trip to San Jose. Both teams were heading in opposite directions, and a Becher brace powered the Raviolis to a 3-1 victory. For the second year in a row, both rivalry games with SKC were midweek affairs. That’s really stupid. After Lowen’s penalty led St. Louis to a 3-2 win in the first meeting, Calvin Harris’ equalizer led the way to a 1-1 draw (the Wizards should have won). However, a massive game three days later against a similarly red-hot Houston (who were top of the conference at the time) went St. Louis’ way after a clutch Dante Polvara winner in the 85th minute. They were set to make it 3 wins in 4 against Dallas on Sunday Night Soccer, but a Logan Farrington 90+7’ equalizer prevented the Raviolis from taking 3 points in a game that they led 3-1 in the 64th minute.

But they notched their best result of the season last weekend. A 3rd minute Emmanuel Sabbi goal gave Vancouver the lead, but the Raviolis responded with 3 first-half goals to take a 3-1 lead into halftime. Despite some desperate Vancouver attacks, St. Louis held strong and the scoreline remained the same as the final whistle blew. There were many results to point to during this streak that could be defined as “signature.” I didn’t even mention their penalty-shootout victory against the Dynamo on May 19th in the Open Cup. But this Vancouver win legitimized the Raviolis as a legitimate playoff team. Not just a playoff team though. One of the best teams in the league. And they kept stacking points despite some tumultuous roster moves.

After tomorrow’s game, St. Louis (10-7-6, 37 points, 5W/9S) returns home to face Minnesota on Saturday. Then they head to Colorado for a gigantic Open Cup semifinal next Wednesday. Their momentum is legitimate, and they traveled from Vancouver to Portland instead of making the trip back to Missouri. They’ll be ready and prepared for whatever the Timbers have to throw at them.

STL Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Hiebert and Pompeu have long-term injuries. Wallem is serving a yellow card suspension.

Despite the congested schedule, it makes more sense for St. Louis to rotate against Minnesota on Saturday rather than tomorrow. So I’m only predicting two changes from the team that beat Vancouver 3-1. Navarro should get his first start with his new club, replacing Becher. St. Louis’ quality summer window actually did not feature another wingback signing. So Joyner is a good pick to fill in for the suspended Wallem. However, Totland could move back to his natural right side and Rafael Santos could get the start at left wingback.

Those are the only legitimate questions for this starting lineup. The back three of Polvara, Baumgartl, and MacNaughton have firmly locked down their starting roles. That’s bad luck for both Falls: Fallou and Mamandou. They are starting-quality players, and could be attractive gets for other MLS teams who are looking for an upgrade in that position. Durkin and Edelman possess the crucial balance of ball-winning and possession play that a team with an exposed double pivot requires. Matan also joined in the summer window, and his experience with Nancy’s Columbus team made him a perfect fit for Damet. Holse is the Hartel replacement, but he hasn’t been as impactful as the German playmaker during his early goings with the Raviolis. Burki is still the starting goalkeeper, and is the only shot-stopper in MLS currently on a DP contract.

St. Louis’ starting lineup has been excellent, with their depth coming up big in recent games. Now the full squad is ready to try and stretch their unbeaten streak to 14 games.

The Timbers Report

It’s another compressed week for Marti Cifuentes. As the Portland Timbers (9-4-10, 31 points, 8W/13S) prepare for another six-pointer, the final signing of the summer transfer window met with reporters on Tuesday at the training facility.

The Veteran Fullback

After five years in Atlanta, Ronald Hernandez was traded to Portland on the final day of the transfer window. His career began at Zamora FC in his native Venezuela, before he moved to Staebek in Norway. A move to Aberdeen in Scotland followed, as he became the Scottish outfit’s first Venezuelan player. However, he only made 6 appearances for Aberdeen in two years before joining Atlanta in 2021.

The right back played 84 matches for an Atlanta team that continued to fall farther and farther away from the lofty standard they set when they first joined MLS in 2017. But Hernandez was described as an influential member of the locker room amidst a very turbulent time for the Five Stripes. “I think being in Atlanta for a long time gave me a strong personality to lead by example,” he said on Tuesday. “Honestly, I’m just trying to make my integration into the team as easy as possible and try to help the guys around me, try to learn how the behavior and culture is. So I don’t want to impact a lot of different culture. I just want to keep the momentum and integrate myself as easy as possible and try to add value for everyone here.”

The 27-year-old’s path to Portland was pretty unique. In American sports, the higher-profile players are able to choose their destinations. Hernandez, despite being a depth option as his time in Atlanta wore on, was afforded the same opportunity by Atlanta GM Chris Henderson. “I got to choose whether I stay in Atlanta or come here. I had a small meeting with the sporting director in Atlanta, telling him what’s going on. And he was able to give me the chance to choose. At the beginning, everything was quick. Things like that you never expect. So I needed to talk with my wife, my family, my agent, to see the scenario if it’s really something that can work out for both parties.”

He’s going to get an opportunity to face his old team in a couple of weeks. “It’s going to be a really emotional game for me, to be honest, but when it comes down to business I [will give] my 100% for this club.” Hernandez mentioned that he’s talked to fellow Venezuelans Kevin Kelsy (who he was teammates with on the Venezuelan national team for a few of his 36 caps), Pablo Bonilla, and Giovanni Savarese in the past. But he didn’t reach out to any of them when he was considering the move to Portland. “I did my own research with other people.” 

I don’t expect Hernandez to immediately come in and claim the starting right back job, but I can see a platoon with Eric Miller developing. Now there’s more competition at right back, which will bring out the best in both players. Hernandez’s contract expires at the end of this year, explaining the $50K GAM fee that Portland sent Atlanta to acquire him. But he does have an option for 2027, so this season acts as a chance for the veteran fullback to try and earn the opportunity to remain in Portland for the sprint season. It’s a smart signing by Ned Grabavoy to fill the sudden right back vacancy. 

Tree Questions with Joao Ortiz

Ironically, I also had the idea to talk to Ortiz before a St. Louis game last year. He was coming off of an excellent outing against New England. Now he’s coming off a quality performance against Minnesota. He’s been pretty unlucky to not get more playing time. But the Ecuadorian midfielder has been making the most of the minutes he’s gotten.

Q: You came off the bench in the last game. What changes for you when you enter the game so early as an unexpected substitute?

Ortiz: Thoughts are always positive. As players, we have to be ready for when situations like these happen to our teammates. This time, it was my turn to show up, and that’s our role on the bench to always be concentrated for when we’re called upon.

Q: Marti [Cifuentes] thought you did a great job in this game. He said you can flex between either of the midfield roles; calling you, to use his phrase, a low interior. Which of those roles do you feel most comfortable, and do you feel more comfortable farther up the pitch or sitting back by yourself in the single pivot?

Ortiz: It’s a good question. Usually I only speak about this with Coach. Lately, he’s been having me play more as an interior, which I have no problem being a number 6. I feel like the opportunities that I’m getting I’m taking advantage of. And that’s the important thing for a player that comes off the bench. Bench players, we have an important role and coming on if the game is already going on can be a difficult point. 

Q: It’s been a couple of weeks since the team was able to get some full training under their belt with Marti [Cifuentes] and his system. How do you believe you’ve adapted to his coaching, and how do you believe the team’s been adapting?

Ortiz: We finally had a full week of training recently where we were able to learn about these ideas. We’ve had weeks where we’ve had to rely heavily just on video analysis due to the crammed schedule, but full weeks of training are gonna help. And I think ultimately we want to learn about what he wants, and the style of play that he wants, and I think it’s going to start, or it’s starting to show in the official games.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Aravena’s training sessions have ramped up, but he still hasn’t rejoined the group yet. Mosquera continues to be all smiles, even with a boot on his foot. McGraw is a new addition. I assume that his bad back flared up again. That’s super unfortunate.

Kamal Miller is still on a yellow card warning despite playing 5 consecutive games without a booking. This information is from the MLS website. I’m going to err on the side of caution (pun intended) and assume that Miller’s yellow card warning is still in effect, despite my better senses speaking to the contrary.

But the main story is Caicedo, who is a confirmed absence for tomorrow’s game. His injury isn’t expected to be long-term, as Marti Cifuentes put it in Tuesday’s press conference. “Hopefully it’s not going to be long before we see him back. I think we will assess again after the St. Louis game if he’s ready for Dallas.”

Like St. Louis, I’m predicting two Timbers changes. The first is Ortiz for the injured Caicedo. Although Diego Chara is healthy and back from injury, I don’t think that the 40-year-old captain needs to be in from the start tomorrow. It’s a good opportunity for Ortiz to start, and he’s definitely earned one.

The second choice might be somewhat controversial. But here’s my reasoning. Assuming that Miller’s yellow card warning is legitimate, it is more important that the Canadian center back is available for Saturday’s game in Dallas than tomorrow. It’s a good time for Bonetig to get his first MLS start since May 2nd in Salt Lake City. This reasoning, combined with Miller’s pretty poor outing last weekend, provides ample justification for Bonetig to re-enter the starting lineup.

Eric Miller should get one more start while Ronald Hernandez acclimates to his teammates and the demands of his new coach. Fory is a candidate for an early substitution given the quick turnaround. Janssen, Velde, Lassiter, Da Costa, and Bassett also fall into this category.  Of course, those players would probably get subbed off earlier if the Timbers were to take an early lead and find a semblance of control. But how can they do that?

Tactical Preview

Keeping the Ball

In order to put the defensive errors from last weekend deeply into the memory hole, the Portland Timbers have to be better at keeping the ball.

Part of this issue revolves around avoiding costly turnovers in the attacking third. However, the bigger problem is still turning the ball over in their own half. 

These turnovers might not be so costly if the Timbers were more comfortable in their buildup structure.

This graphic illustrates how poor Portland’s buildup was against Minnesota. I would like to see how Bonetig handles Cifuentes’ center back demands. Although the Australian is more of a ball-carrier than a passer, that carrying can break open organized defenses more than regular passing. Unless, of course, Portland’s players can fine-tune their off-ball movement.

Midfield Rotations

Despite only keeping 3 clean sheets in MLS play this year, St. Louis ranks 2nd in xGA behind Vancouver. Damet, like Nancy, subscribes to the same school of “positional play” that Cifuentes and Pep Guardiola espouse. Although Portland and St. Louis’ structures are a bit different, there should be space in the midfield for the Timbers to exploit if they are very active off-ball.

One key that I’m looking for: how often does David Da Costa pop up on the right side? I’d argue that he can be even more dynamic on the right than the left because of the gravity that Kristoffer Velde provides. That type of right-wing movement created Vincent Janssen’s 2nd goal last weekend. Cole Bassett is also adept at playing on the left, so consistent and constant midfield rotations can unlock a surprisingly stingy St. Louis defense.

Matchday Info

Broadcast Bulletin

English: N/A

Spanish: N/A

Home Radio Broadcast from 105.1 the Fan: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Fotis Bazakos’ 2026 stats: 13 games, 24.62 fouls/game, 0.23 penalties/game, 4.85 yellows/game, 0.15 reds/game

Portland record: 3-2-2, +4 goal differential, -8 foul differential, -6 yellow card differential, 0 red card differential, 0 penalty differential

Last Timbers game officiated: May 3rd, 2025 @SJ 4-1 L

I decided to include Bazakos’ stats in games involving the Timbers. 6 out of the 7 Timbers games he has officiated have been at Providence Park. The last home game was the 2-1 defeat against the Chicago Fire back in 2023. I probably should have been doing this already. 

Series History

Historical record: 2-2-3, -2 goal differential

Home record: 1-1-1, 0 goal differential

Current streak: 1 loss

Current home streak: 2 unbeaten

St. Louis has only existed since the Apple deal. The only Timbers home game during that time that I haven’t attended in person was the first-ever Portland-St. Louis matchup. It was a disappointing 2-1 loss in March 2023. The Timbers responded by handing St. Louis their first-ever home loss a month-and-a-half later. Both 2024 league meetings were draws, but the Raviolis knocked the Timbers out of Leagues Cup due to terrible scheduling rules. The 2025 results were 2-1 home wins by each respective team. Could this be the year that one team finally gets the upper hand?

Table Time

The only inter-conference game occurring tomorrow is LAFC-NYRB (or RBNY? Ah, forget it). That means one thing: more Western Conference cannibalization! Colorado travels to Austin, RSL visits Houston, and San Diego hosts San Jose. Dallas hosts Minnesota before the Timbers come to town on Saturday. Portland can climb as high as 7th with a win and could fall down to 12th with a loss.

The team currently in 12th is the LA Galaxy, who travel to Vancouver before hosting Seattle on the weekend. Speaking of the Sounders, they are spared the opportunity of extending their winless streak to 12. They do like that number up in the fishing village, don’t they. It would be a real shame if they got there. SKC is also taking Wednesday off. Thank you to the MLS schedule makers for keeping this midweek slate pristine from underperformance and despondent soccer.

Final Whistle

Before I launch into my main point, I would like to put two Marti Cifuentes quotes here. I couldn’t find room anywhere else in this preview for them, but they’re very funny and deserve to be published on this website.

“We could manage these moments much better, but it’s a work in progress. You can see the tendencies of the team. Sometimes we tend to drop too early, sometimes we defend too deep, and that’s not what we want. But it takes time. This is not PlayStation, so we need to keep working.”

Maybe this one wasn’t as funny as it was insightful. It was a response to my question about the post-Minnesota film session. In my recap of that match, I pointed out that exact “dropping” problem.  It’s good to see that Cifuentes also views it as an issue. He’s also right to invoke the popular PlayStation video game console (although I am an Xbox man myself) as a metaphor for the time that it will take for the system to be instilled in the team. Video-game efficiency cannot happen in real life.

Another completely unrealistic event is what Cifuentes is about to describe next: “I think Kris[toffer Velde] is one of those players that could take the corner kick and head the corner kick himself, which I love. I think that’s part of why he’s such a good player.”

I wonder if Velde listened to this and got an idea to try it. Now I’m intrigued to see him test it once in a live game, or maybe in an observable training session. I don’t think it’s possible, but who knows how close he could get?

“I would say that they’re a very balanced team because they know how to defend in every situation. They know how to manage in possession, and that’s probably the reason why they have such amazing results recently.”

Now the actual final chapter to this preview can begin. Cifuentes is describing St. Louis to a T. However, these two key aspects to a soccer game (knowledgeable defense and possession management) are the two biggest reasons why the Timbers are struggling. They are about to be tested by a team that represents what these Timbers want to become, even though they utilize two different structures to make it possible. “We are here to stop those results, and we are here to prove that at home we can be very strong. It’s going to be a great challenge, to be sure.”

Cifuentes has been in charge for 6 games. I believe this St. Louis side, especially in the form that they’re in, represents the biggest challenge that the Timbers have had to face so far under his stewardship. They don’t have to travel for this one. They get the advantage of a midweek game at home. Janssen’s heroics on Saturday provided another classic Providence Park night. However, the Timbers do not need a legendary evening to beat this St. Louis team. They have to be calm, collected, and assertive first and foremost. If they play the game that they believe they can play, the Portland Timbers can stop the Raviolis in their tracks.

But in order to do so, they’ll have to bring their A game. It’s definitely possible. More impossible things have happened. The first 15 minutes, like usual, will be very telling. A proper start is needed tomorrow more than ever. If there is a game to make a statement, tomorrow night is a blank canvas ready to be painted. Let’s see what the Timbers can craft. The climb continues.