Seattle solid versus Dynamo

Saturday, September 28, 2024, was something of an odd day for the Seattle Sounders. The Sounders clinched a playoff spot just after the pregame National Anthem had been sung in Lumen. It was Fan Appreciation Night, but the match didn’t see a whole lot more fans than usual – 30,015. The team won, but it was the kind of win that showed the team’s limits as much as their strengths.

Schmetzer didn’t change up the starting XI from the previous match against San Jose:

Solid first half for Seattle

Seattle did what they needed to do in the first half. Aside from a dangerous sequence in the first few minutes where the Dynamo nearly induced a Seattle misstep in their own box, the Sounders held the line against Houston, ensuring that their advantage in possession amounted to nothing. Meanwhile, Houston’s press lapsed at points, allowing Seattle to put together a few good stretches of time in Dynamo territory.

This paid off for Seattle in the 22^nd minute, as the team drove forward up the left side. Rusnak came into the box but lost the ball after being challenged by Dynamo defender Erik Sviatchenko and midfielder Artur. However, Sviatchenko was unable to gain control of the ball, and it caromed to Paul Rothrock, who booted it past two defenders and a diving keeper into a patch of netting about a foot inside the right post. 1-0 Seattle.

Seattle had two more excellent opportunities in the next fifteen minutes, but didn’t capitalize. In the 30^th, Nouhou sent a long ball to Rothrock on the left side. Rothrock took it forward and sent a perfect left-footed cross to Morris, who rattled off a sliding shot from excellent position – but the ball hit the right post and bounced away. In the 34^th, Pedro received a ball from Albert and flew up the right side before whipping off a cross to Morris, which reached the Sounders striker even though he was covered by Sviatchenko and Griffin Dorsey. But Jordan’s touch sent the ball the wrong way.

Seattle didn’t produce that kind of threat for the rest of the half, despite a pair of strong shots by Albert Rusnák. But Houston was also silent, so the half ended with a 1-0 Sounders lead.

Sounders nearly fall back on old ways, tighten the lid to hold on

Houston came out of the half on a more aggressive tempo than they had in the first half. Despite a couple of chances early in the half, the Sounders began to play passively as the 60^th minute came and went. The Dynamo spent much of their time in Sounders territory and obtained a couple corners as they put pressure on Seattle’s defense. The Sounders didn’t break, but it was looking like the opening scenes to a movie that Seattle fans have watched many times this year.

Schmetzer turned that movie off. In the 64^th, he took of Pedro de la Vega and sent in Reed Baker-Whiting (playing as a winger rather than a back). While Reed’s performance wasn’t world-beating, it was enough to put momentum back in Seattle’s hands, at least for a time.

As the 80^th minute approached, however, Seattle once again grew passive as Houston began to develop a stretch of control in Sounders territory. Again, Schmetzer turned that old movie off. In the 84^th, he put in Georgi and Atencio for Rothrock and Vargas. Again, this jolted the Sounders out of an emerging slumber, this time for good. A corner kick that Stef punched away was the last bit of offense that the Dynamo put together, and the Sounders won, 1-0.

Seattle has weapons

A highlight of this year has been the emergence of several young players that have strong abilities. Georgi is starting to come into his own, as is Pedro de la Vega, who entered the year as Seattle’s big offseason grab.

There is also Reed Baker-Whiting, who has played well as a left back several times this season, typically when Nouhou is on international duty. This game, he played as a winger and showed some promise in that position as well – with two lightning runs up the left side – but also showed some flaws, as he seemed out of his element when he was receiving crosses up front. Still, he showed potential.

Paul Rothrock, however, has been the biggest revelation. He scored once more on Saturday, his fourth in 2024 regular season play and his seventh in all competitions this year. He also very much has passed the eye test during his time with Seattle – and that bodes well for 2025 and beyond. Cristian Roldan praised Rothrock’s ability to keep opponents guessing:

“We just haven’t had that ability to score this year and last year. Paul brings that little bit of randomness, that little bit of effort out wide,” Cristian said. “When you think that he’s kind of going to lose the ball, then all of a sudden he’s in the box, crossing the ball.”

Seattle has limits

I suppose it’s a disappointment to 2 Unlimited and Russell Wilson, but the team clearly has limits this year.

Finishing up top has been a problem for the past two years, and it was still a problem in Saturday’s game despite the win. Sharper play up top would have made the match 3-0 well before halftime – and that’s the difference between the good teams and the great teams. The 2024 Seattle Sounders are a good team, but clearly not a great one.

The limits, like in 2023, are mostly up top. One limit on the team is that Seattle has a very good, but not great, number 9 in Jordan Morris. Though he’s been faster and more precise over the summer after his slow spring start, he still isn’t the type of striker that can be counted on to punish a mistake and finish the chances.

Another limit is that, although Seattle has an emerging core of young wingers, they are that – emerging. We probably haven’t seen the best of Paul Rothrock, and we definitely haven’t seen the best of Georgi or Pedro. Perhaps the Georgi or Paul of 2026 will be enough to make up for the lack of a top-tier striker, but not the Georgi and Paul of 2024.

But it’s not just up top, as we have seen many times during the season – a big issue has been running out of gas while ahead and allowing equalizers, and that’s a whole-field problem. Schmetzer put the lid on this tendency on Saturday with timely substitutions, but it’s another tendency that will bite the Sounders if it appears in the postseason.

In short, even though the Sounders have clinched a playoff berth, there probably won’t be a cup.

Sounders clinch playoff berth

Once again, the Seattle Sounders are in the playoffs. The next three games will determine the position. Currently, every individual seeding is technically achievable for Seattle, though getting into the first seed would require LA Galaxy to lose all remaining matches and Seattle to win all remaining matches (well, one tie could be afforded to LA Galaxy if Seattle were to best them in goal difference).

Seattle’s remaining matches are on October 2^nd on the road against Vancouver, October 5^th on the road against Colorado, and a Decision Day October 19^th home game against the Timbers.

A win against Portland guarantees at least a home playoff game. Even one win in the next three matches would probably secure a home playoff series for the Rave Green, as both Portland and Minnesota would have to get all 9 points remaining to leapfrog past the Sounders in that case.

Cascadia Cup Table

Also on Saturday night, the Whitecaps and Timbers had a 1-1 draw, which means the Cascadia Cup standings now look like this:

Beating both Vancouver and Portland would win the Cascadia Cup for the Sounders for the first time since 2021. The Sounders have to beat Vancouver to have a chance at the Cup.

Beating the Whitecaps and drawing against Portland would net everyone 8 points and a 2-2-2 record, at which point the tiebreaker depends on the number of goals scored by the three teams in Cup play against each other and overall.

The most convoluted scenario here is that if the Sounders beat the Whitecaps 3-0 and draw Portland (or, more specifically, if Seattle beats Vancouver by exactly three, draws Portland, and the Timbers score an equal or greater amount of goals on the 19^th as the Caps do on the 2^nd), the Cup would go to a tiebreaker between the Timbers and Sounders – which would be determined by cards in Portland-Seattle matches, currently at 1 yellow apiece.

Of course, a pair of wins would be simpler.