Seattle Sounders-Portland Timbers Preview (5/19)

Y’all know what week it is.

The Sounders Report

On August 31st, the Portland Timbers re-affirmed their dominance against the team up north. Juan Mosquera’s deflected goal proved to be the difference as the Timbers defended every single inch of their own box en route to a 1-0 victory. It was a massive win for the Timbers, but the Seattle Sounders took it personally.

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After a press conference full of pen clicks, the Sounders traveled to Columbus during the September international break. Both teams were missing starters, but the Crew were completely gutted by players on international duty. Cucho Hernandez, Mohamed Farsi, and Jacen Russell-Rowe were gone, but a unique situation was brewing with their goalkeepers. Starting goalkeeper Patrick Schulte and backup Nicholas Hagen were both on international duty. Now, the Crew signed 3rd-stringer Abraham Romero during the summer. MLS has some wacky rules regarding short-term loans from MLS NEXTPRO. Due to injuries (and a dubious rule about using those loans for friendly matches), both Crew II goalkeepers had exhausted their loans. Columbus applied for an “extreme hardship” call-up, but it got declined by the league. They entered their game against Seattle with only Romero in the squad. All the 3rd-stringer had to do was not get hurt or sent off. Right before halftime, with a weakened Columbus fully in control, Romero received a justified red card. That led to midfielder Sean Zawadzki putting on a pair of gloves and a different jersey and letting in 4 goals. This same situation occurred last weekend when the Crew hosted New England during an international break. Guess what? Their “extreme hardship” waiver got approved. MLS’ reasoning behind this decision had to do with the timing of the Seattle game, which occurred prior to the Roster Freeze. Technically, the Crew could have signed a FIFTH goalkeeper (Evan Bush has missed the majority of the season due to injury) but they chose not to. The Crew used a significant portion of those short-term goalkeeper loans during CONCACAF Champions’ Cup; a tournament that MLS wants its teams to succeed in. Due to a consequence of their own success, they were unable to call up a backup goalkeeper. Would it have affected the result after Romero was sent off? No one can say for sure, but having a midfielder in goal certainly changes the complexion of a game. What a dumb rule. And of course, the Sounders benefitted.

That ridiculous victory in Columbus kick-started a 6-game unbeaten run. The Sounders went on to win 4 of their next 5, but their lone draw deserves a special mention. During this 6-game unbeaten streak, the Sounders kept 5 clean sheets. They won all of those games. Except a Wednesday night game against the San Jose Earthquakes. The Quakes struck first, but a Jordan Morris brace gave the Sounders a lead at halftime. However, Jeremy Ebobisse hates the Seattle Sounders. He scored the game-winner in the reverse fixture back in March and scored a game-winner at Lumen Field last season. This time, he turned provider. The former Timber assisted Paul Marie in the 89th minute, and the Sounders dropped points at home. 

The Sounders have been the hottest team in the league since September began. But all of that can be thrown out the window when the Timbers come to town. Scheduling a Cascadia Cup game during Decision Day is a shameful decision by the league. This is a rivalry that deserves its own standalone window. Burying these games during a congested fixture list is a crime against America. No other rivalry in this country carries the same amount of hate that Portland-Seattle does. Since the Apple deal, this game continues to be disrespected in favor of “larger market” battles like the Hudson River Derby and El Trafico. Hell is Real could get a mention here, but both Columbus and Cincinnati have been top-tier franchises in the East. None of those games have the history or the flat-out hatred. These two should not be meeting on Decision Day. Period. 

Seattle’s traditionally excellent defense has buoyed this late-season run. They have conceded only 34 goals this season, which is the lowest number in the league. However, their attack continues to lag. They have been awarded the second-most penalties in the league (9) but have only scored 8 of them. Just over half of their 50 goals scored have been from open play. Now, that isn’t such a bad thing when you dominate set pieces. The Sounders are lethal from dead-ball situations. But their rather predictable game model from open play is designed to put crosses in the 6-yard box, which often get intercepted and turn into corner kicks. However, one personnel shift from head coach Brian Schmetzer changed Seattle’s season.

Jordan Morris was moved from the left wing to the striker spot. Because this move gave him room to run and focus on scoring, he is the club’s top scorer. Except when he plays the Timbers, because he turns into a pumpkin. Albert Rusnak is the primary dead-ball specialist, and he has 10g/15a in 2,449 minutes. Except when he plays the Timbers, because he turns into a pumpkin. Paul Rothrock has taken over the left wing role, and has 5g/2a in 1,231 minutes. Because he is a local kid, the Sounders’ fanbase has developed an unhealthy obsession with him. Many people thought that Pedro de la Vega would be the Sounders’ best winger, but he only has 1g/1a in 579 minutes due to injury and his overall averageness. The back four of Nouhou (piss artist), Jackson Ragen (human chipmunk), Yeimar (victim of Dairon Asprilla), and Alex Roldan (the Wish version of his brother) plays really solid soccer as a unit. That’s because they don’t really have to do a lot of defending.

The Sounders’ system is predicated on a fierce counter-press. Rothrock, in particular, is one of the most active defenders on the team. The metronomic Joao Paulo, Mexico debutante Obed Vargas, and piss artist Cristian Roldan are all starting-quality central midfielders. Josh Atencio had one of those starting jobs last year, but it has been usurped from his grasp in an unfair fashion. Meanwhile, Stefan Frei has 11 clean sheets despite facing the second-lowest PSxG among goalkeepers who have played 2,000 minutes. The Sounders still have a solid, well-coached team who really only need one goal to win a game. During this 6-match unbeaten streak, they have scored the first goal in 5 games. Every single one of those games resulted in a Sounders clean sheet. They are beatable. But they know how to grind out wins. 

Josh Atencio and Cody Baker are both out with head injuries. Reed Baker-Whiting, Jon Bell, Stuart Hawkins, Nouhou, and Obed Vargas were on international duty, but all reported back healthy. 

Every day, Brian Schmetzer wakes up and presses the “Ol’ Reliable” button before he can turn off his alarm clock. The Sounders don’t have to worry about rotation or player availability, so the coach filled with the spirit of the ocean can continue to be as stubborn as he wants. Rothrock has taken over as the left winger with de la Vega on the right. Joao Paulo has been dealing with injury for the past month, and should be healthy enough to start alongside Cristian Roldan in the midfield. The backline and goalkeeper picks itself. Morris up top and Rusnak in the hole. Players to watch off the bench include Obed Vargas and Georgi Minoungou. One other player to watch might be Raul Ruidiaz. For a breakdown of his situation, please check out Michael’s article that dropped today. If tomorrow is going to be his final regular season game at Lumen Field, it would make sense for Schmetzer to substitute him in. Speaking of final regular season games, Schmetzer’s contract expires at the end of 2024. Portland has to spoil it. Since their inaugural season in 1974, the Sounders have a tradition of handing out carnations (dumb flower, roses better) to their fans after their final regular season home game. Imagine spoiling that silly tradition by raising the Cascadia Cup in their faces. It’s almost too perfect. 

The Timbers Report

Contrary to their biggest rivals, the Portland Timbers have hit a bit of a cold stretch. Since beating the Galaxy 4-2 on September 18th, Portland has authored a 4-game winless streak. This can be attributed to a week of dropped points. First, the Timbers failed to beat Vancouver in a dull 1-1 draw. But the next two games have set off some alarm bells. A deflected goal against Austin proved too much for an anxious Timbers attack to overcome. Then, for the first time this year, they got shut out in consecutive games after drawing 0-0 with Dallas. That’s a total of 7 crucial dropped points at crunch time. Not great! But, if a silver lining could be found, it would be the defense. In all three games, the Timbers were largely in control and didn’t concede a lot of big chances. They only conceded two goals during that 2-point week. The Timbers’ defense has been a subject of much ire, but after a quick look at some stats, some things don’t add up.

Time to go back to the advanced stats. Portland ranks 14th out of 29 in terms of total npxG conceded. On a per 90 basis, the Timbers are conceding the 8th-fewest shots on target. That’s pretty odd. In terms of raw volume, Portland’s defense is league-average at best. So why can’t they keep shots out? The answer lies in the quality of shots that they concede. When post-shot expected goals are taken into account, the Timbers rank 18th out of 29. Not great, but also not the end of the world. The two teams above them are NYCFC and the LA Galaxy. Once we add in the crucial PSxG/SoT (post-shot expected goals per shot on target) the picture gets a lot clearer. The Timbers are allowing the second most PSxG/SoT in the league, only trailing SKC. This is really concerning, and it jumps off the page when you look at the ratio between shots on target and goals conceded. 

Look at that difference between Portland and the other teams in their hemisphere. SKC, who has the highest PSxG/SoT ratio in the league, is conceding an average of 1 goal every 2.2 shots on target. DC United has the same PSxG/SoT ratio that the Timbers do, and they are also conceding 1 goal every 2.2 shots on target. Frankly, that’s horrific. Portland’s ratio of 2.5 is the 3rd-worst in this sample size by a decent margin. Defensive mistakes and poor goalkeeping accounts for this statistical anomaly. The other contributor is, unsurprisingly, set pieces.

The Timbers have conceded 11 goals from corner kicks in 2024. That’s tied for the most in the league with the LA Galaxy. In order to keep the defensive improvements from the past week intact, the Timbers have to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Contest shots at the top of the box. Contest headers. Stay compact and structured. Defend as a team. Portland’s underlying numbers suggest that this team is significantly underperforming defensively. Even though the attack went cold against Vancouver, Austin and Dallas, the Timbers can still tighten up defensively and make a good playoff run.

Big-game players are going to be a necessity for the Timbers in the postseason. One of those players could be Miguel Araujo. During his time with Peru, he scored the winning goal against Uruguay in a World Cup Qualifier. It was his first goal for his home country, and you could see how much it meant to him during his celebration. Phil Neville also had some kind words for Araujo on Tuesday. “We’re so proud of him.” He also touched on the importance of international duty to the club. “That boy is playing in some of the biggest games against the best teams and the best footballers. We can only benefit from that. He’s been outstanding for Peru. We love our players going on international duty. It’s something that can only benefit us.” Araujo became the first Timber to score on international duty since Bill Tuiloma did it in 2022 with New Zealand. Bringing that experience back to the Timbers will be extremely beneficial for the playoffs.

Portland’s injury report is very interesting. Miguel Araujo returned from international duty and is questionable with a lower body injury. Phil Neville said that Santiago Moreno picked up a “knock” against Dallas and has been limited during training since that game. He is also questionable with a lower body injury. Kamal Miller is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. However, the most surprising absence is Zac McGraw, who will miss tomorrow’s game due to “personal reasons.” One quick look at his Instagram illuminates what kind of “personal reasons” are causing him to miss this game.

Congratulations to Zac and Kaitlin on their wedding!

The list of injuries is concerning, so I’m putting together the best possible Timbers XI if none of the injured or absent players are cleared to start. Crepeau was on international duty with Canada and started their only friendly match during the window. He is still Portland’s #1, according to Neville, so he will start. Bravo, Mosquera, Zuparic, Evander, Ayala, Chara, Rodriguez, and Mora are locked-in starters. If Araujo isn’t healthy enough to start, either Finn Surman or Eric Miller will be called upon at center back. Surman hasn’t made his Timbers debut yet, and this would be a hell of a time for his first minutes. A short-term loan could be used on Tyler Clegg to fill out the defense if Araujo’s injury is serious enough to prevent him from being in the squad. Antony is the most logical option to fill in for Moreno. While the injury report certainly raises some questions, a crucial one has been answered. Mason Toye will be available for selection for the first time in three weeks. I expect him to be a key substitute for Phil Neville. Even though the Wild Card Game will occur next Tuesday or Wednesday, there is no more time for rotation. The Timbers have to go for the win.

Tactical Preview

Beating the Counterpress

Seattle lines up in a 4-2-3-1, but it shifts to a modified 3-2-4-1 in possession.

Alex Roldan pushes up, Nouhou tucks in, and de la Vega shifts inside. While this formation allows the Sounders to effectively get numbers forward, it also forces opposition teams to play through or attempt to bypass their fierce counterpress. This is the hallmark of Schmetzer’s system. If they lose the ball in the opposition half, there are plenty of players available to swarm and pressure to win the ball back. One player on the Timbers will be crucial to beating that press.

Jonathan Rodriguez is Portland’s chief aerial outlet on long passes. He is an aerial mismatch against Alex Roldan and the Timbers need to exploit his ability to win headers and collect the second balls that he leaves for his teammates. If the Timbers win those second balls, there will be acres of space in behind that their attackers (primarily Antony) can exploit. Ayala’s tenacity and ability to spray long passes will also be important. If Portland can’t beat the counterpress, they will be in for a long evening.

Set Pieces/Second Balls

Portland dominated dead balls during the 1-0 win back in August. All they have to do is show the same tenacity and will to do the same thing tomorrow. More importantly, they have to immediately put their foot on the gas and begin a counterattack if they win the second ball. I could do an entire paragraph on second balls, but that’s a waste of time. Just win the second ball! Seattle has an infuriating tendency to draw second balls to their feet like the ball is harboring a Sounders homing beacon. The Timbers simply need to want the ball more and keep their structure in defense. If they do that, the second balls will be theirs. 

The First Goal

I have already gone into the importance of scoring the first goal from Seattle’s perspective. Portland has scored the first goal in 5 of their last 11 MLS matches. Only 1 of those 5 games (Dallas away) was a loss. The other four were victories. Their record in the other 6 games when they haven’t scored first is 0-4-3. In order to win, they have to score first. It’s as simple as that. Sitting back and absorbing pressure is not what this team wants to do. They want to take the game to their opponents. They don’t always start out in sync, so they have to stay structured while they begin to probe Seattle’s defense. Just stay compact, don’t yield, and get forward when possible. 

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu are on the call in English. The Spanish broadcast is headed by Alejandro Figueredo and Eduardo Biscayart. Because it’s Decision Day, every Western Conference match is scheduled to kick off at 6:00 PM PST. Tomorrow’s game is NOT FREE on Apple TV.

Referee Report

Ismir Pekmic will be the center referee tomorrow. Earlier this season, he officiated Portland’s 0-0 draw in St. Louis. 

2024 stats: 16 games, 22.19 fouls/game, 0.19 penalties/game, 4.5 yellows/game, 0.31 reds/game

Series History

Portland still has the all-time (MLS era) advantage against Seattle with a 18-9-16 record.  This includes a 6-6-8 record at Lumen Field. However, one of those “losses” was the 2018 playoff game that the Timbers “lost” but advanced to the next round after a penalty shootout. Because that “loss” was technically a win, the Timbers have a 10-match unbeaten streak at Lumen Field dating back to May 27th, 2017. Despacito was the number one song on Billboard and Aaron Ramsey scored a winner in the 79th minute to win the FA Cup for Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal. That’s a mighty long time. The lone Seattle “victory” in that time was the aforementioned playoff game in 2018. That game is special and lives long in the memory of Timbers fans, and the result isn’t the only reason why. It was played on a Thursday, but was originally scheduled for the next Sunday. However, the game was moved up to Thursday because of a car show occurring at Lumen (fka CenturyLink) Field. Well, it’s 2024, and history is repeating itself in front of our eyes.

Table Time

MLS loves to hype up “Decision Day” as the biggest day of the regular season with a ton of stakes. This year, it (kinda) lives up to the hype in the Eastern Conference, where 4 teams are fighting for two remaining playoff spots. The West is all sealed up except for seeding. The most interesting seeding battle did involve Portland, Vancouver, and Minnesota. Not anymore. BC Place is hosting the 2024 FIM World Supercross Championship (a bike show) one week from tomorrow. Because dirt bikes are involved, extra days are committed to prepare the venue for the event. The pitch is unusable, and dire consequences are in store for the Vancouver Whitecaps. They cannot host the Wild Card Game anymore. Minnesota is in the driver’s seat to avoid the Wild Card Game, and all they have to do to avoid the play-in is beat St. Louis City at home. Simple. With that result, the Timbers will host the Wild Card REGARDLESS of Vancouver’s result in Salt Lake City. Is this a terrible look for MLS? Yes, objectively so. But is it absolutely hilarious? 100%. Vancouver is the coldest team in the West, and RSL is a juggernaut at home. The only results that would cause the Timbers to travel (regardless of Portland’s result in Seattle) is a Minnesota loss coupled with a Vancouver win. Both of those outcomes are unlikely on their own, and even more unlikely to occur together. This bike show has lowered the stakes for Portland’s game. But, it is Seattle, and there are already plenty of more important stakes besides a home playoff game. 

Cup Watch

Even before the scheduling conflicts in Vancouver became public knowledge, the Cascadia Cup was always the most important thing up for grabs tomorrow. The Whitecaps lost 3-0 to the Sounders on October 2nd, which put the Timbers in the driver’s seat for the Cup. Two results will bring the Cascadia Cup home to the Rose City: a win or a draw. A victory at Lumen would elevate the Timbers above the Whitecaps on points. That’s easy. A draw would bring the 3rd tiebreaker into effect. All three teams would finish with 8 points. Portland and Seattle would be tied on goal differential. But the Timbers scored one more goal than Seattle during Cascadia matches, and would win because of goals scored. The stakes are simple but massive. Since all three teams entered MLS, the Timbers have never lifted the Cascadia Cup in Seattle. In 2012, they lifted it in Vancouver. In 2017 and 2022, they raised it in Portland. It would be a fantastic way for Phil Neville’s first regular season as Timbers head coach to finish.

Gut the Fish. Detonate the Whale. Butcher the Pig. Burn the Carnations. Win the Cup and keep the Lumen streak alive. 

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