Smashed And Grabbed

*Cover photo credit to Thomas Lal/Cascadia FC.*

In a shocking upset, the Portland Timbers lost 3-1 at home to a severely short-handed Philadelphia Union. However, much like last week, the Timbers created enough to score plenty.

This match started on a sour note. Within one minute, Philly keeper Oliver Semmle handled the ball outside of the box. No foul was given. More on the referees later. But the Timbers wanted to dominate the ball today, and they did. Debutant Jonathan Rodriguez was very dangerous in the first 15 minutes. It seemed like if the Timbers could get the ball to their new striker, they could create very dangerous opportunities. And they did. Up until the 28th minute, the Timbers had created 3 big chances. And then Julian Carranza scored off a corner kick. 1-0 to the visitors. The Timbers tried their hardest to get an equalizer in the first half, but the best chance fell to Eryk Williamson and Dario Zuparic with the last kick of the half. Neither of them could turn the ball into a wide-open net. 

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The first chance of the second half fell to the Union. Jeremy Rafanello shot from distance, James Pantemis parried it, and an unmarked Quinn Sullivan followed up to double the visitor’s lead in the 58th minute. Now the Timbers would really have to push for a result. Phil Neville made a double substitution at the 65th minute, and two minutes later the Union had their third. I’ll talk about that third goal a little later, because it’s the only one I can truly blame on the coach. With the game truly over at this point, the Timbers tried their hardest to pull a goal back. That goal came in the 80th minute, when Rodriguez headed home a Santiago Moreno cross to score a sunshine goal on his debut. It was too little too late, and the Timbers have now lost two straight games.

That’s an awful lot of negativity. Don’t worry, I have so much more. Despite the times when the Timbers created some excellent chances, they left their finishing boots in the locker room. 

Some of these were unlucky, some were tough chances that looked easy, and some were just incompetent. It’s the second week in a row that the Timbers created enough chances to win but couldn’t finish the job. But an even more concerning trend is emerging. 

There are two things I want to explain with this chart. First of all, I would like to refer to Jim Curtin’s comment in the postgame press conference: “Possession without real penetration is useless.” Tonight, the Timbers had 72% possession. This is exactly what Neville wants the Timbers to do. They have a squad of players that can do a lot with the ball. But in this loss, their downfall was the middle third. 

You can see how high up Juan Mosquera was today. This made him more crucial than normal in the buildup. The Timbers would often play short passes in the middle third to move into the final third before crossing the ball into the box. This worked out really well in the first half hour, when the Timbers were able to consistently create dangerous chances from the right side. But Philly was able to figure it out after taking the lead. The Timbers did not switch up their game plan in response. They kept on recycling the ball around the back just to keep trying to go up the right wing again. It was maddening to watch. No long balls, not even trying to use the left wing. Just continuous pushes into the middle third on the right wing.

The Union were able to swarm the right side and force turnovers. The Timbers then relied on desperate defending (key Zuparic or McGraw challenges or massive Pantemis saves) to bail out the poor choices in possession. Speaking of possession, the Timbers were lacking one key mode of attack tonight: ball-carrying.

Looking at completed dribbles does not matter for this stat. The Timbers were looking to pass the ball into the back of the net tonight. For this game, the Union largely had a first-choice backline. They were lacking in the midfield. The Timbers would turn the ball over in the midfield, usually after bad passing. Eryk Williamson, Evander, Antony, and Santiago Moreno are excellent ball-carriers. But they were looking to move the ball with quick passes rather than taking a couple of touches and finding a pass into the box. I can already tell that Jonathan Rodriguez just needs service. Not aerial crosses from out wide (even though he scored on one), but a variety of different balls into the box. This lack of good final balls (particularly in the second half) left the Timbers throwing tons of paint at one spot on the wall and not covering every inch of the room they were painting. Rodriguez is going to make runs into the box and he needs someone to deliver him the ball. Slip passes to an oncoming wide player to play a cutback ball across goal is one way to feed him. One other way is to play a long ball over the top and let him run onto it. He will gain more and more chemistry with the team, but he was begging for the ball tonight. And when he got it, good things happened. The Timbers do not need to pass the ball into the back of the net; they need to put the ball into the back of the net. Tonight, they didn’t exercise all the options they could have in order to make that happen.

In the 60th minute, Phil Neville made a double change. Eric Miller and Diego Chara were subbed out for Felipe Mora and David Ayala. Before I go further, I would like to say one thing: taking Diego Chara off the pitch was the right choice.

This has nothing to do with Chara himself. But Neville saw tonight as I saw it. “I was a little worried with Diego on a yellow card because I didn’t know what the referee was going to do.” The replacement refs continued to be inconsistent and completely wrong. That keeper handball in the first minute of the game was a warning shot. The Union were allowed to time-waste at will, and the Timbers rarely found themselves as a beneficiary of the referee’s whistle. In the 70th minute, Felipe Mora was thrown to the ground by Jakob Glesnes, but the ref let play continue. He blew the whistle after Evander fouled Alejandro Bedoya. I’m tired of writing about how bad these referees are. According to multiple reports, PSRA has accepted one of the offers from PRO to end the strike. I hope that the qualified referees are back next week because I can’t take much more of this. And tonight’s refereeing performance wasn’t even close to the worst on in MLS this week. The league is going to try to explain away the Charlotte-Columbus game, and they should not be allowed to keep gaslighting their fans. The games are becoming more and more unwatchable the longer this referee lockout goes on, and that’s a fact that MLS PR can’t explain away.

Now we get into the effects of the double substitution. It took a bit for the Timbers to figure out their new shape, and by the time they did Philly had scored their third goal. It was a quickly taken free kick into the open space left vacant by Antony, then squared back across goal for an easy Carranza tap-in. I understand wanting to bring on Mora, but this is the second time this season that Neville has brought Miller off the pitch and the Timbers have immediately conceded. The players looked like they were confused with their new assignments, and it allowed the Union to fully put the game away with a half hour left to play. It was a gamble, and one that didn’t pay off. I cannot wait for Claudio Bravo to be back. 

Now we can talk about the players, and I’m going to go from back to front. James Pantemis made a couple of outstanding saves, but was let down by the defense in front of him. Zac McGraw completed the most passes out of any player on the pitch, but a lot of them were to his center back partner. I would love to see him take more risks, like trying a ball over the top to counter Philly’s strong mid-block. Him and Dario Zuparic were regularly defending on the back foot tonight, much like they were last season. Eric Miller was the worst player on the pitch. He got caught ball-watching on the Union’s second goal, and didn’t make a strong enough challenge on Carranza’s header that gave the Union the lead. Juan Mosquera absolved himself of last week’s mistake, but now I’m faced with a quandary about him: does his advanced position force the Timbers to play more out of the right side or do the Timbers choose to do it? I don’t have an answer for that question yet, but it is something to note.

Diego Chara got another undeserved yellow card, and wasn’t as clean with his passing as he usually is. That’s OK. Eryk Williamson chose to look for the pass rather than carry the ball most of the time, and the jury is still out on how he will play with Evander. Tonight, Williamson didn’t want to take risks in possession, but still found ways to turn the ball over. Not a great night from him.

Santiago Moreno got another assist tonight and did some excellent defensive work. However, like the rest of the creators, he had trouble in the final third. Somehow he is only getting goal involvements when he’s having an average or below-average game. Sigh. Antony needed to see more of the ball, but the Timbers refused to try to find him in space. After moving to left back, his attacking contributions became even more limited. Please find ways to get him the ball. 

Evander belongs in an entirely separate paragraph. He did a lot of Designated Player things tonight. His 5 chances created led the team and he tried to score an Olimpico not once, not twice, but three times. However, his finishing was still lacking. I do have faith that it will rebound. Like Williamson, he wasn’t decisive enough around the box. This included several options to shoot that he turned down. Evander, please take those shots. Another up-and-down game from him, but he has a hungry man to feed now.

Jonathan Rodriguez got a rousing cheer from the crowd during player introductions and kept hunting for his first goal. When it came, he immediately began gesturing to his teammates to get back for the kickoff. He worked hard, fired 5 shots, and scored on his debut. He’s only been with the team for 4 days. The Uruguayan will develop more chemistry with his teammates and will keep finding ways to score goals. A very good debut from him. 

I regret not writing more about David Ayala in my preseason preview. Before he got hurt, he showed incredible passing range and fearlessness in the midfield. Tonight, he played his best game of the season and looked like the best midfielder on the team. Phil Neville mentioned that he’s healthy enough to potentially start next weekend in Vancouver. I cannot wait to see him back in the lineup. Felipe Mora is working his way back to full match fitness, but I was happy to see him back on the field tonight. Dairon Asprilla came on the pitch to play right back, and did a solid job. I honestly think you could put him anywhere on the field and he’d put in a solid shift there. Please give him a fair offer for an extension, Ned. 

“We should have been 3-1 up at halftime,” Phil Neville said in the post-match press conference. “This is the most disappointed I have been with the mentality of the team… if we don’t do the basics we’re not going to be where we want to be.” A succinct quote that sums the night up really well. The Timbers did have their chances, but they hit the defending trifecta tonight: a set piece, ball-watching, and a finish at the far post. The three players on international duty were all defenders, and Kamal Miller was the one who they really needed tonight. Their willingness to switch off mentally at key moments saw the team miss big chances and concede goals. It’s time to look at the standings.

Despite tonight’s loss, the Timbers are in 4th place with 7 points in 5 games (2-1-2 record). However, they are only getting healthier. I would like to take a moment to salute an old friend who plays for the San Jose Earthquakes. His late contribution tonight dropped the Seattle Sounders to the absolute bottom of the Western Conference and has residents of the fishing village calling for an inquest of Brian Schmetzer. But tonight isn’t about laughing at the team up north (even though it is perfectly fine and even encouraged to do so). Tonight is about the Timbers and the gauntlet they’re about to face.

Before the Timbers will face their biggest rivals, they will have to face the toughest part of their schedule. Tonight’s game against Philadelphia was the most winnable game that they had for the next six weeks. So it’s time to set a target to see how seriously we need to be taking this team as a contender. Before the Sounders come here on May 12, the Timbers will play 6 matches with 5 of them being away from home. That’s 18 potential points. If they can get 10 points over the next 6 games, I think they can establish themselves as a good MLS team. That’s 3 wins and 1 draw.  If they can get 12 points over the next 6 games, I think they’re a serious contender for the Supporter’s Shield. That’s 3 wins and 3 draws or 4 wins. This isn’t as drastic as last season, where I set targets in hopes of making the playoffs. Like last year, the Western Conference is wide open. Climbing the standings will allow the Timbers to get the best possible advantage come playoff time. I believe that this is a playoff roster, like I did last year. This is a good team, but they have to keep working on their issues. How well they work on those issues is going to show how serious of a team they are. 

Tonight, their old habits reared their ugly heads and the Timbers lost a game that they should have won against a ridiculously short-handed Union squad. Now the focus turns to next week and an old rival. The work continues, but the Timbers have found their DP forward. Time to keep building around him. 

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