The First Warm-Up

On a warm September night, the Portland Timbers snapped their 4-game winless streak by beating the New York Red Bulls 2-1. Tonight's victory also ended Portland's 3-game winless streak at Providence Park. 

Recap

Kristoffer Velde and Matias Rojas were in the starting lineup so they could make their home debuts. A home debut is a very special moment for a player, and Velde almost began his with a bang. So did Rojas, to be fair. In the 10th minute, Joao Ortiz intercepted a telegraphed Tim Parker pass. He quickly moved the ball to Rojas, whose one-touch flick pass to Felipe Mora opened up space behind New York’s backline. Mora’s return through ball found Rojas on the right side of the box, and a simple first-time square pass to Velde was slotted home underneath Carlos Coronel to give the Timbers a lead. I don’t think Lee Corso pays a lot of attention to soccer. But he would’ve appreciated the linesman that quickly raised his flag with an implied “Not so fast, my friend.”

Sometimes I dedicate entire sections to talking about the referee. I don’t think tonight’s game requires that much attention, so I’ll just get to the officiating points as they come up in the recap. We’ll start with this 10th minute Velde goal that got ruled offside.

This is the part of the play that causes the linesman to raise his flag. Yeah, I get it. It’s really close. But it’s also worth noting that the linesman is NOT in line with the last defender. He’s slightly behind him. So the linesman is already not doing his job correctly. Fine, whatever, etc. That’s why VAR exists. But the linesman screws up AGAIN by raising the flag directly after the play ends. 

Linesmen are taught to keep the flag down unless an offside infraction is CLEAR and OBVIOUS. Those words aren’t capitalized to indicate yelling, just emphasis. There’s nothing clear and obvious about this play. It certainly looks like Rojas is onside, or at least in line with the last defender (Noah Eile). It isn’t a dramatic miscarriage of justice either. This play took place in the 10th minute, with plenty of game left. Even if Portland went on to lose this game, this disallowed goal does not fall into Asterisk territory.

However, even though it isn’t a dramatic miscarriage of justice, it certainly is one. I firmly believe that this call would have stood whether or not the linesman raised his flag. It’s awfully close. But there’s nothing clear and obvious to point to either possible call getting overturned. You can make the case that Rojas’ right hand is just in front of Eile’s position. Based on the rules of the game, that would be an offside. But you can’t prove it through a VAR review. It’s a judgement call. And this judgement call wiped off a goal for Velde on his home debut. Brutal.

Velde still wanted his goal involvement. In the 16th minute, he delivered a laser of a free kick into the box, but it was a tough ball for Mora to put on target from his position at the near post. But in the 28th minute, the Norwegian DP got his wish.

It started with a completely innocuous Jimer Fory throw-in. Velde comes close to receive the ball before lightly tapping it back to Fory with his second touch. Immediately, the Norwegian peels away and makes a run into the box. Fory meets him with a delightful chipped pass. Velde, under pressure, takes two touches closer to the endline. The ball almost goes out of bounds, but Velde’s last touch is a hopeful lofted cross into the center of the box. Rising to meet it is Rojas, who times his jump perfectly. The ball arcs into the air and nestles into Coronel’s far post. Completely out of nothing. But it’s a 1-0 lead for Portland right before the half-hour mark. 

New York began to up the pressure, and the first warning shot was a Wikelman Carmona attempt from distance in the 31st minute. James Pantemis didn’t even have to move and made the easy save. The Red Bulls’ best chance of the first half came in the 40th minute. Some neat combinations from Emil Forsberg and Mohammed Sofo allowed the young American winger to break into the box and have a narrow shooting chance. The shot was stopped by Pantemis, who also fell onto the resulting loose ball. Portland kept the 1-0 lead heading into halftime, but probably thought that the score flattered the visitors.

The second half began with more Red Bulls pressure, but no big chances. Portland nearly added to their lead in the 55th minute when a Pantemis long ball found Antony in space. As the Brazilian beared down on goal, Coronel came off his line and made a relatively nutty (pun intended) stop on Antony’s nutmeg attempt. More New York pressure followed without another major chance. In the 68th minute, the Timbers were on the counter. David Da Costa played a decent through ball to Velde, which took him wide. The resulting cross to a streaking Kevin Kelsy was nowhere near the Venezuelan, and Coronel made an easy claim. The Paraguyan goalkeeper opted to take a quick long throw to Ronald Donkor, and a spell of Red Bulls possession began. In this time, the ball kept going forward and backward in an attempt to unsettle Portland’s structure.

Eventually, Raheem Edwards hit the longest pass of the sequence with a cross-field switch to Dylan Nealis. The right back’s first-touch pass was awful, but David Ayala was unable to cleanly intercept the ball. It got recycled to Gustav Berggren at the top of the box, who tried to go short to Sofo. Ortiz stuck a foot in, and the ball fell to a clearly offside Forsberg, who slotted it home past Pantemis to tie the game in the 70th minute.

This play requires one screenshot, and only one thing matters in this picture.

Joao Ortiz makes a deliberate attempt to play the ball, so Forsberg’s positioning is irrelevant. It’s a very tough pill to swallow, but it’s the correct one. File it under “Portland once again fails to get a bounce of the ball to go their way.” It’s a packed folder, what’s one more picture going to do to it? The real sin of this play is not giving themselves some breathing room for this kind of frustrating but ultimately unlucky error. More on that later.

This did not feel like a game that should be tied at 1. So, directly after conceding, the Timbers set out to change that. Another Pantemis long ball allowed Juan Mosquera to overlap Velde on the right and swing in a dangerous cross to Kelsy. The Venezuelan’s initial header was blocked, but the ball fell to Da Costa. Portuguese Dave took a single touch to settle, before his second-touch volley was blocked. That allowed the ball to fall to Velde, who didn’t think twice before swinging his leg through it. The result was a hard-hit low drive to the far post, which was expertly parried by Coronel. That parry fell just out of the immediate reach of Antony, who had to settle the ball first before trying anything threatening. The ball got recycled, and the sequence ended with an easy claim for Coronel. That was the 72nd minute. Two minutes after New York had found a tying goal, the Timbers wanted their lead back. And it didn’t take them long to make their dream a reality.

One minute later, the Timbers were counterattacking again. Mosquera’s delivery was intended for Kelsy, who tried to flick it into the side netting of the far post. However, there are times where you have to make sure that the ball goes in. That’s why Antony was crashing the back post and putting the final touch across the goal line. Three minutes after New York’s goal, the Timbers had the lead again. 

Of course, this might come with some controversy.

Once again, it’s really close. But you can’t definitively call him offside. It’s awfully similar to Velde’s disallowed goal, but the only difference is the actual call on the field. Once again, the linesman is behind the play. But there is not enough CLEAR and OBVIOUS (emphasis again) evidence to overturn it. For the second time in the last three home league games, the Timbers have scored a late goal at the far post.

It was now New York’s turn to try and reverse an immediate misfortune. In the 76th minute, Edwards teed up a shot from deep that was parried by Pantemis. However, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (who was quiet for most of this game) decided to show his poaching skills. He was right on top of the rebound, but his heavy touch allowed the split-second that Pantemis needed to contest the loose ball. Luckily, the flag was up. Portland almost extended the lead to two when Kelsy’s header (from a delicious Ariel Lassiter cross) was gobbled up by Coronel in the 81st minute. After some more desperate defending of their own box, the final whistle blew and the Timbers were victorious.

Phil Neville's Word of the Day

Before everything revolved around our phones, stationary and other knick-knack style gift stores sold gimmick single-day calendars. A stack of paper bound together by something plastic and the ability to tear each page off one by one as the days passed in a given calendar year. Some of these calendars featured comic strips. For some reason, my mind turns to Marmaduke here. I don’t remember a single Marmaduke strip. Per my recollection, I don’t think I’ve ever read one. But a Marmaduke strip-of-the-day calendar is usually the first thing I think about when these gimmick (but still pleasant) gifts get brought up. Other calendars can have a math problem, or poem, or even a random sports player (new business idea: a gimmick calendar full of forgotten NFL running backs (putting Montario Hardesty on January 1st). But the most common application of these calendars was a word of the day.

In high school, one of my teachers had one on his desk. Our goal (as students) was to work that word into a suitable context at some point throughout the day to earn fake currency to exchange for prizes. Because the world is rapidly evolving (and true Luddites (DING) are becoming few and far between), these calendars are often a relic of the past. But Phil Neville definitely had a word in mind about today’s game. It’s a very important word, and it probably belongs on a poster above the locker room rather than in a tearable sheet of paper that is destined for the recycle bin. 

That word is “ruthless.” On the attacking end, the Timbers could have scored at least five goals. Their buildup play (mostly) looked excellent. They’re getting more comfortable on the ball. However, Neville’s first observation post-game was about how many chances they missed: “I think we can be miles better. If we go into halftime 3-0 up, we win the game easily.”

Getting the win is one thing. The Portland Timbers did get the win tonight. But they made it a lot harder for themselves than it should’ve been. A multitude of missed chances (Velde’s offside goal doesn’t count in this exercise) could have made this game much more comfortable. In the 32nd minute, Antony had another 1v1 opportunity but couldn’t find the target. Per Sofascore, the Timbers created 8 big chances. The eye test doesn’t match that stat, but there were plenty of times for Portland to grow their lead.

This game is also notable because the Timbers had no problem getting behind New York’s backline. Portland took 15 shots, and 12 of them were inside the box. 9 of those 15 were on target, with 8 SOTs from inside the box. Those chances were generated from possession sequences in the first half, while the majority of second-half shots were from direct attacks. That’s a good exhibition of versatility. Coronel made some excellent saves (most notably the Velde shot in the 72nd minute) but most of Portland’s efforts weren’t “quality” shots. Let me explain.

Portland’s best chances came when their shots were relatively uncontested. However, they still took a half-second too long on some attempts, which allowed New York defenders just enough time to recover. Neville’s insistence on “ruthlessness” will affect this tendency the most. Sometimes you just need to have a hit. 

As the team keeps scoring (and it’s a safe bet to assume that they will based on tonight’s game) their confidence will increase. Their ruthlessness will increase as a result. Throughout training this week, emphasis on far-post crashing was evident. All of that focus paid off with the way that the Timbers won this game. Tonight’s game was a very good execution of Neville’s system. It doesn’t always work, but some of the sequences authored by the Timbers were repeatable and dangerous. Those adjectives make good teams great. And there’s a lot of time to grow. In the meantime, finding that “ruthlessness” is paramount. 

Player Ratings

James Pantemis: 8.5

This is mostly a distribution grade. Several members of the coaching staff have praised Pantemis’ ability to spread the ball across the field. Tonight’s game was a showcase of his passing. Between his diagonals to Fory and Mosquera or his line-breaking passes to Ortiz or Mora, Pantemis did an outstanding job of switching the point of attack in addition to his usual shot-stopping duties. I’m not going to place any blame on a goalkeeper for failing to save a (normally) offside goal. 

Juan Mosquera: 9

Mosquera’s tour de force began in the first half as he drew 3 fouls. This also included several dangerous crosses that unfortunately couldn’t turn into assists. Well, in the second half one did! Kelsy was credited with the primary assist on Antony’s winner, but Mosquera’s cross was perfect. Add in 5 ball recoveries and Mosquera’s outstanding two-way performance deserves some flowers.

Finn Surman: 8.5

Picture this: you’re Finn Surman. Now that you’ve gotten over the sudden shock of your sudden growth spurt, you’re completely exhausted to boot. Of course you’re exhausted. You had to travel halfway around the world and back over the past two weeks. While your teammates had some time to goof around (the technical term is “bond”) over some go-kart races, your national pride got dinged a little bit as your loud island neighbors beat you twice. In spite of that, you were the only player on your team that went on international duty and was picked to start this game. That doesn’t matter in the slightest, because you are Finn f****** Surman. You have a standard to uphold. The announcement of your name in the pre-game starting lineups is beginning to draw quite a loud cheer. By the time this regular season ends, you could be lifting the Supporters’ Player of the Year. But you’re not going to look forward. You have to help your team win this game.

Two immense first half tackles (15th and 21st minutes) set the table for the shackling of Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. The 35-year-old striker has been defying the critics all season. But after witnessing his performance tonight, he clearly still has it. Except when he’s playing Finn Surman. Choupo-Moting was unable to use his best trait (outstanding box presence and off-ball movement) because the Kiwi was glued to him. Because New York’s two-headed monster of Forsberg and Choupo-Moting is responsible for the majority of their goals, taking one of them out of the game was very important. Good job, Finn. Especially with such a busy international break in the rearview mirror.

I’d also like to mention his passing for a second. He’s beginning to take more risks on the ball, and they’re succeeding. Another thing to watch in the coming weeks.

Dario Zuparic: 8.3

Zuparic had another game where he did a lot of stuff that flew under the radar. Prior to first-half stoppage time, he put his body on the line to stop Choupo-Moting. After staying on the ground for two minutes, he got back up and kept playing with his usual consistency and aggression. There’s only one Dario Zuparic. He didn’t stand out in the same way that Surman did, but I doubt he cares too much. His team won, after all.

Jimer Fory: 7.8

Fory’s side of the field became the primary avenue for New York’s attacks. I thought that Fory handled himself well, but didn’t put in the quality of two-way performance that Mosquera did. However, the large Colombian can win a lot of headers. That’s exactly what he did for most of this game.

JOAO ORTIZ: 8.5

Do I add the asterisk? Am I that petty? Or am I going to enjoy Ortiz’s first minutes in a month? How about a little of both, despite my heart desperately trying to tell me to do the latter.

Ortiz dictated this game. He was everywhere in the midfield. As the 8 to partner Ayala’s 6, he looked transformed. Was he a true 8? Kind of. The most he got upfield was to press, and didn’t offer a ton of options in possession. But he was a driving force to get the ball from Portland’s middle third to the edge of the box. 

Here’s where a slight asterisk comes into play. The Red Bulls don’t press anymore. Sure, they’ll push their structure into the opposition half, but they don’t press. This gave Ortiz a TON of time on the ball, and he was able to make the right decision 95% of the time. However, this does continue the trend of Ortiz becoming more and more comfortable. The first half was brilliant, but he started to run out of steam in the second. It was the right choice to sub him off in the 75th minute. 

Ortiz’s performance further validates the faith that the coaching staff has in him. In his post-game press conference, Neville spoke about how Ortiz didn’t travel with the team to Minnesota. But he also spoke about Ortiz’s attitude. According to Neville, Ortiz has been the standout of the scout team. He’s played center back, central midfield, and deputized as a number 10 over the past month.

“He sacrificed himself for the team. He competed in training every single day. He kept his head down every single day. You get your rewards in life by being that person. I say that because I think I was that person as a player. I didn’t play every single week, but every single day I competed. And I think that’s what I want now from this group.”

Strong, direct words of praise for the only offseason signing who has yet to fully hit the ground running. At the very least, he’s putting in maximum effort on the training ground. As the season has gone on, it’s begun to pay off on the pitch. 

David Ayala: 7.8

Are you currently aware that Ayala has played 2,342 minutes over the course of this season? He’s already surpassed his next-highest total in a Timbers uniform by 700. As the only “undroppable” player in Portland’s midfield, keeping him fresh for the playoffs is a key concern. Subbing him off after 75 minutes is a good way to manage those minutes. In the meantime, his passing is still outstanding and his defense is outrageous. 

Mati Rojas: 8.4

There are still some miscommunications. That’s expected. But he’s already creating some chemistry with Mora, Mosquera and Velde. I’d like to draw your attention to his goal. He doesn’t look that tall on the pitch, but he’s 6’1”. This is news to me. He doesn’t look that tall on TV or in person. And he used every bit of those 73 inches to get to that Velde cross. The manner of the finish is very notable. Seven years ago, the Timbers hosted another New York-based club. In that game, one of their wingers also opened the scoring with an unlikely header. Oddly enough, it rose in the air and settled in at the far post, leaving the goalkeeper flat-footed. Congratulations to Mati Rojas for paying tribute to Sebastian Blanco on his first home start. By all rights, he shouldn’t have scored that. But he did. And it was his first as a Timber. However, it isn’t as important to him as getting the win. Goal, potential assist, and three points. The Mati Rojas dream.

Kristoffer Velde: 8.7

Neville summed it up perfectly post-game: he didn’t get the ball enough. And when he did, he was spectacular. In addition to the goal that should’ve stood, he assisted Rojas and looked consistently dangerous. He has the talent to turn any moment into a goal. Coronel had to turn into Superman to keep that 72nd minute shot out. 

Antony: 8

Per his own words, Antony was not satisfied with his performance tonight. Specifically: “I feel like my participation with the ball at my feet wasn’t good enough. I don’t think I affected the game as much aside from the goal.”

Let me offer a brief rebuttal before I go any further, because I agree and disagree with his assessment.

The disagreement stems from the threat he provides by simply being on the pitch. In Antony, the Timbers have the ultimate release valve. If Portland’s buildup is struggling, you can just launch the ball into space and have him chase it down. He doesn’t lose those footraces, but the quality of delivery is the major obstacle holding him back. 

But I do agree because he had two major 1v1 chances that he failed to convert. No use going into further detail on them. He’s well aware. Neville made a point to mention how hard he works on and off the field to get better. Remember, Antony was Neville’s self-described “preseason standout” ahead of 2024. The head coach also threw in another nugget: “Every single day he’s worked with Dave Van den Bergh on his finishing, crossing, fitness and attitude. It’s why most clubs in the world want Antony.”

Felipe Mora: 8

Felipe Mora is fully back. No, he didn’t score a goal, but he did his usual Mora flicks and tricks. I didn’t think he deserved to come off the pitch in the 55th minute. He was the driving force behind a lot of the good sequences in the first half. And he didn’t look remotely tired either.

David Da Costa: 7.5

His shift began in an odd manner. Because Rojas took too long to exit the pitch, Da Costa’s entry was delayed by two minutes. I can’t be mad about it either. At least they’re enforcing a rule that is a focus of PRO. 

Da Costa’s biggest contribution is the diagonal to Mosquera that turned into the winning goal. However, he nearly had an assist himself. He put the ball on a platter for Kelsy, who skied the chance from inside the 6-yard box.

It was the second consecutive game that he entered as a substitute. I’m not officially ringing alarm bells unless he doesn’t start in Houston. Based on Neville’s “load management” credo, it makes a lot of sense for Neville to keep an eye on his minutes. He’s spent the majority of the season carrying the load as Portland’s lone healthy DP. 

Kevin Kelsy: 6.8

Kelsy continued his encouraging trend of getting in the right spots to score goals, but he didn’t score at all. In addition, he killed another counterattack in spectacular fashion. I’ve never seen a player attempt a backheel with his own foot in the way. It’s still his “season of growth,” and the teachable moments appear in every game. Just something Timbers fans and coaches have to live with, for now.

Cristhian Paredes: 7

He reprised his role as the Closer by winning a fair amount of headers and being an outlet on counterattacks. Not an incredible game, but another solid outing.

Diego Chara: 7.2

The club captain went to work in stoppage time with a key ball recovery and a blocked cross. He can’t stop making plays, especially in the closing moments of a game. 

Ariel Lassiter: 7.2

On the basis of his on-ball contributions, he earned a 7. However, I’m adding an extra 0.2 for taking the ball to the corner in the last minute of stoppage time and winning a throw-in. I always love seeing that.

Coach Rating: 7.7

I don’t think Neville did anything spectacular in this game. But the work put in during the week on back-post runs and defensive blocks paid off. I’m still not entirely sold on the Mora substitution, but it didn’t cost Portland the game. In addition, I enjoyed his message after the game. These Timbers can be better. And they arguably should’ve been better tonight. But they got the result that they needed. And sometimes, that’s all that matters.

Table Time

In doing so, they’ve positioned themselves as the “Best of the Rest.” I doubt that any of the top 5 teams in the West will fall backwards into the 6-9 range. But the Timbers are in a good spot relative to their other table neighbors. Austin lost in Dallas and San Jose got battered by LAFC. RSL beat SKC, but they need a lot of help to climb above the Wild Card game. But the most consequential result came in Colorado. Paxten Aaronson scored a late winner (yeah, it was credited as an own goal but I don’t really care) and Houston’s playoff hopes took a major hit. In addition, Dynamo midfielder Artur was sent off after said winning goal, so he will miss next week’s game against the Timbers. Let’s take a brief moment to admire the San Jose Earthquakes. 55 goals scored, 55 goals conceded. A truly outstanding way to get to a goal differential of 0.

Final Whistle

Those Earthquakes, at minimum, are interesting. I called the Red Bulls the most uninteresting team in the league prior to this game. Their statistical footprint is eerily similar to Portland’s. It’s safe to say that the Timbers are equally uninteresting. At least heading into this game. But tonight’s win has firmly set each team on different paths.

The Red Bulls have their vaunted postseason streak to continue. After tonight’s loss dropped them to 13 points in their last 13 games, it’s fair to say that their organizational ironman streak is probably coming to an end. They had the option to strengthen over the summer, and completely failed to do so. Berggren (their only summer addition to feature in this game) certainly looks like a guy who can be a good player in this league, but he’s more of a direct replacement for Felipe Carballo than anything else. Portland was able to add Carballo before his unfortunate ACL tear, and his replacement was one of the brightest players on the pitch tonight. 

The other two additions combined for a potential opener, and reversed their roles to combine for the actual opener. That’s what you want the two attacking difference-makers to do in their 3rd game playing with each other. Tonight’s game was another wake-up call, in a way. But that term doesn’t do it justice. Rather, it’s a warm-up for the main event.

I don’t think the potential greatness of this Timbers team will be touched until the postseason. After this international break, Portland began the final sprint to the end of the regular season. Their post-Leagues Cup schedule featured Cincinnati, San Diego, and Minnesota. All three of those teams are still in contention for the Supporters’ Shield. Those games acted as the orientation for Velde and Rojas. Against Cincy, they got to see Providence Park in a playoff atmosphere. The following matches showed Velde and Rojas what the top class of the Western Conference can offer. During the international break, the training and off-field elements of the team became more ingrained. 

But this game was the true warm-up. At home for the first time, the complete(ish) Timbers were tested with the Eastern Conference version of themselves. The caveat was Velde and Rojas. Portland realized that they needed to push, so they spent the money and acquired the players to help them do so. The Red Bulls stayed holed up in Harrison counting their legs. Each of these final five games are different types of warm-ups for the playoffs.

Houston is not a good team. But Portland’s continued faceplants in Texas are a trend that they need to reverse. Vancouver handed them their most embarrassing defeat and followed it up with another shellacking. Dallas will sit deep and force the Timbers to break their low block. The Seattle Sounders are the Seattle Sounders. And San Diego could rock up to Providence Park on Decision Day with the Supporters’ Shield still up for grabs. 

As the Timbers prepare for these games, the tests that these teams offer are perfect for a playoff preparation. By beating the Red Bulls at home, Portland got a very important three points. Now is the time to see how fast they can grow. Our 50th anniversary tree didn’t get enough water in the summer. It began to wilt and fade, kept alive by a strong root system that ensured competitiveness in the wider ecosystem. As the fans poured out from Providence Park celebrating a much-deserved 3 points, the rain began to pour a couple hours later. The dry summer is over. It’s time to flow again. The climb continues.