The Two Statements

Portland’s quiet offseason has been a source of frustration. Instead of a plethora of roster moves, the Timbers have stood pat aside from the acquisition of Ariel Lassiter. However, like last season, Ned Grabavoy and company waited until January to finalize their first big moves of the offseason. And, reader, they’re huge acquisitions.

The Midfield Option

28-year-old Ecuadorian defensive midfielder Joao Ortiz is the newest Portland Timber. He comes from Independiente del Valle in Ecuador. To some world soccer fans, that club is familiar. Many international pundits consider IdV to be one of the best development clubs in South America. The likes of Moises Caicedo, Piero Hincapie, and Willian Pacho are the chief gems from their academy. Their current starlet is Kendry Paez, who will join Chelsea during the upcoming summer. Ortiz comes to Portland with a history of winning, most notably a Copa Sudamerica in 2022 with IdV. In addition to his club exploits, he has been capped 9 times by the Ecuadorian national team.

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I’m going to spoil one thing right away: this signing is fantastic for a number of reasons. First, I must talk about the player. Ortiz is a true ball-winning number 6 that the Timbers desperately needed. Some people think that upgrading a defense is simply a matter of getting better defenders. However, throughout the 2024 season, I pointed towards Portland’s failure at ball progression and set piece defending as the reason why the Timbers were conceding so many goals. Ortiz can definitely solve the first part of that. There isn’t enough of a statistical profile of the Ecuadorian to publish here, but based on some highlight compilations he looks pretty smooth on the ball. In addition, he has pace to burn. Portland’s defensive woes were compounded by poor mistakes in possession that often left their centerbacks exposed. Ortiz can cover for those giveaways by quickly recovering and making it harder for opponents to counter.

Now we get to the financial aspect of the deal, which is what excites me the most. Tom Bogert of GIVEMESPORT reported that the fee is “in the region of $1.5M.” Personally, I believe that transfer fees in MLS only matter for non-DPs and U22s (because those fees do not count against the salary cap due to the special roster designation). However, any transfer fee for non-special roster-designated players (that’s a mouthful) counts against the salary cap. Per Bogert, Ortiz will be a TAM player. That roster designation takes this acquisition from a good deal to a fantastic one.

Those special roster slots (DPs and U22s) are supposed to be used on high-impact players who are expected to be centerpieces of the roster. Most teams use their DP slots on attackers. The DP number 10 is a hallmark of Major League Soccer and it’s nearly impossible to win trophies without one. Making a striker a DP is another common route for MLS teams. It can be used on players in their prime (Austin’s $10M splash on former Cincinnati striker Brandon Vazquez), old guys from Europe that you remember from the mid 2010s (Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, for some reason) and even pumpkins! However, some teams choose to use their DP slots on defenders or even goalkeepers. Walker Zimmerman is probably the best example of a DP center back in MLS right now. Roman Burki won Goalkeeper of the Year while occupying a DP slot for St. Louis in 2023. All of those players are important to their team, but the other option is giving a DP slot to a midfielder.

The Timbers did this with Diego Chara when he arrived in 2011. In terms of importance, a number 6 is often the tone-setter in the midfield and carries a ton of responsibility. Getting a number 6 without utilizing a DP slot is excellent business, period. Ortiz is in his prime and will be an effective partner next to David Ayala. But it does beg the question: what will Portland’s midfield look like in 2025?

As of right now, this is Portland’s best XI heading into next year. Ortiz immediately slots in next to Ayala in the midfield. But both players are natural at the 6. My main question: how will they complement each other?

Normally, in a double pivot, you would expect one player to act like a 6 (pure ball-winner) and one to play as an 8 (box-to-box). However, I think it’s time to tweak that line of thinking. Portland’s double-6 midfield was born last season when Ayala and Diego Chara became the first-choice pairing. I expect Ortiz to occupy the same role that Chara had. This also means that Ayala won’t be acting like a traditional 6.

Ayala’s 2024 heatmap is mostly contained in the middle third of the pitch. I don’t think he’ll find as much license to get forward as, let’s say, Cristhian Paredes, but he will be able to affect the attack from deeper positions. Ortiz will do the same. To summarize, Ortiz and Ayala should be able to complement each other pretty well.

Both players should be able to pick their spots to get forward while retaining their defensive responsibilities. The Timbers are set to become a better team off the ball in 2025. Ortiz’s speed is a key asset for that. Does this signing answer all of the questions about the Timbers ahead of next season? No, it doesn’t, but one of their biggest needs has been filled without using a specialized roster slot. That’s an excellent bit of business, and Grabavoy deserves a lot of credit for getting this deal over the line. Even if there was a pretty long wait for it to happen.

I’ve probably said this before, but Timbers fans have been spoiled by Diego Chara’s presence for the entirety of his time in Portland. Such a crucial position on the field has been covered since day one (well, not literally day one, but you get the idea). Did the Timbers wait too long to find a Valeri successor? You can debate that until the cows come home (personally, I think they gave it enough time before splashing the cash on Evander) but the Timbers have been proactive in their search for their heir in the pivot. Ayala took a couple of seasons to claim the job (not his fault, no one can predict injuries) and the Timbers have found him a partner for the next couple of years. The expectations for Ortiz will be massive. And he should be able to meet them.

The Striker of the Future

Kevin Kelsy arrived in Cincinnati at the tail end of the Primary Transfer Window. The Garys agreed to a loan move with a buy option for the 19 year old Venezuelan striker. In 29 total appearances, he scored 6 goals. Cincinnati was eager to try and bring him back for 2025, but they didn’t want to pay the $7M buy option. Negotiations to lower the price broke down, and Kelsy returned to his parent club: Shaktar Donetsk. However, Ned Grabavoy and the Timbers were monitoring the situation. After a month of talks, Kelsy became a Timber for $6M; the third-largest fee paid by the Timbers for any player.

Kelsy’s journey to Portland has been odd. After scoring 5 goals in 24 appearances for Venezuelan side Mineros in 2022, he was sold to Boston River in Uruguay for $600K. Not even a month later, the Uruguayan outfit sold him to Shaktar for $3.5M. The Ukrainian club has a history of finding South American gems and selling them for big profits. Fred, Fernandinho, Douglas Costa, and Willian are the biggest names to come from Shaktar in recent years. That’s not even counting the European sales of Mudryk, Mkhitaryan, and Trubin! Kelsy scored 9 goals in 37 appearances AS A TEENAGER before his loan to Cincinnati. Now he’s in Portland, with a contract until 2028 (his age-23 season) with a club option for 2029.

The $6M paid by the Timbers for Kelsy doesn’t matter in terms of the salary cap. He will occupy their fourth U22 Initiative slot. Every high-leverage roster slot is now filled on Portland’s roster: Rodriguez and Evander as DPs with Moreno, Ayala, Antony, and Kelsy as U22s.

I don’t have a lot to say about his statistical chart. I think it speaks for itself. However, there has been some concern about his lack of production with Cincinnati last year. One massive thing to note: he arrived in the middle of the season as a 19-year-old and didn’t have a proper preseason to adjust to his new team. He still scored 6 goals, and clearly Cincinnati GM Chris Albright (the 2023 MLS Sporting Executive of the Year) saw enough to try and bring him back on a permanent basis. He will get a full preseason in Portland to get familiar with his new teammates on and off the pitch.

The Timbers needed a big guy up top. Kelsy is 6’4”. They needed a young striker that offered a different profile than Felipe Mora. Kelsy is 20 years old. The Venezuelan will start next season as Mora’s backup but could play himself into a starting role by the summer. He is exactly what the Timbers need at this moment in time. Some extra height will also come in handy on set pieces. A long contract allows him the opportunity to grow as a player. Not only is he a big piece of Portland’s future, Kevin Kelsy makes the team better in the present time.

Money Spent Effectively

Two of the Timbers’ three biggest needs have been addressed for a total outlay of $7.5M. Portland has effectively reloaded and they’re still looking for another defender. Evander’s situation is still a big question mark, but they needed to address the midfield and the striker position regardless. That’s some excellent work from the front office.

Ortiz and Kelsy are two massive statements: “We know what our issues are, and we are going to solve them.” During their media availabilities last Thursday, Grabavoy and Phil Neville could not stop gushing about their newest additions. The general manager and the head coach are building a roster in accordance with each other’s visions. That might seem like bare-minimum stuff, but that kind of harmony only leads to better performance on the pitch. Ecuador and Venezuela join Colombia, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Peru, Chile and Argentina in Portland’s locker room. Year 50 has begun with a bang.

Mailbag coming next week. Upgrade to a paid subscription if you haven’t already for a big-picture piece coming within the next two weeks. Thank you all for your continued support. Onwards.

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