Timbers Sign Jonathan Rodriguez

Ladies and gentlemen, it is official. The Portland Timbers have signed Uruguayan forward Jonathan Rodriguez from Club America. Before we delve into the Timbers’ newest Designated Player, there’s a bit of housekeeping to take care of. 

Nicknames are fantastic. I’m guessing that all of you have been given a nickname in your lifetime. However, some people don’t like the nicknames that are bestowed upon them. Jonathan Rodriguez is one of those people. “Cabecita” means “little head” in Spanish. Rodriguez has a pretty large head, and he doesn’t like it when people say his big ol’ noggin is small. Just giving y’all a heads-up (giggle) in case you happen to meet him. 

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Initially I had my doubts about this signing, but as it became more and more real I changed my tune. To be clear, I am not admitting defeat because there is nothing wrong with my initial concerns. To recap:

When I wrote about a potential Rodriguez transfer a couple weeks ago, the price point was a concern. The deal is reported to be worth around $4 million, which now classifies this transfer as a steal. I know a couple million isn’t a huge difference on a grander scale, but it’s still a lot of money invested into one player with holes still remaining on the roster. In addition to the price point, I was a little bit stressed about the contract length. The salary does not matter to me in the slightest. As a DP, Rodriguez’s cap hit would be the senior max and the team can pay him whatever he wants. But Rodriguez turns 31 this year, and it is a questionable decision on the surface to invest a lot of money in a player who might be closer to retirement than his prime. However, I would grade the contract length as a B+. It’s a three-year contract with an option in year four. Three years is perfectly fine, and the Timbers could use their buyout on him if the deal doesn’t work out. Each team has the option to buy out one player on a guaranteed contract every season, so at least the team has an out. With the minutiae of the deal out of the way, let’s dig into the newest Portland Timber and how he will impact the play on the field.

Calling Rodriguez a striker is correct, but he’s not a traditional number 9. He is also able to play on either wing. His versatility is the best part of his game, and should guarantee him a starting spot whenever he’s healthy enough to play. Since the Timbers are in need of a striker, let’s take a look at his stats.

Ignore the percentile rankings because they are compared to other wingers. In order to see how he truly stacks up against another striker, let’s take a look at one of the best 9s in MLS: Giorgos Giakoumakis.

Giakoumakis is the gold standard for a poacher in MLS. Rodriguez isn’t on this level, but he’s also playing the majority of his minutes out wide. So it’s kind of unfair to compare him to a player who spends all of his playing time up top. In order to find a good statistical comparison, we have to go back a few years and look at a player who used to suit up for the Timbers. The coincidences between the arrival of this mystery Timber and Rodriguez are eerily similar. 

This is what our mystery man’s profile looked like right before he came to Portland. To illustrate how similar it is, let’s take a look at a graph comparing both players.

Rodriguez is the red polygon. You can see that he’s better defensively and a better passer than our old friend in blue, even though our former player has the edge in the major counting stats. But one stat where they perfectly overlap is non-penalty goals per 90. The mystery man played as a winger at his old club, but made the switch to center-forward in Portland. By now, you’ve probably guessed who he is.

Once my stupid lizard brain made the connection, I had to keep digging for more proof. Besides both players coming from Mexico, they had the opportunity to make their debuts in Houston. The Timbers play Houston this week, and they play Philadelphia the following week. You’ll never guess who the 2019 Timbers played after Brian Fernandez’s debut in Houston. 

*Author’s Note: Rodriguez did not have the opportunity to make his debut against Houston but the parallel is still cool so I’m keeping it in here.*

Two fiery wingers brought to Portland from Mexico with the opportunity to make huge impacts at their new club. I fully expect the 2024 Timbers to repeat history by making their marquee signing play up top instead of out wide. Now, I haven’t decided whether or not that would be a mistake. I firmly believe that former head coach Giovanni Savarese’s misuse of Fernandez was a franchise-changing mistake. Putting Fernandez up top and moving Jeremy Ebobisse out wide had long-reaching consequences which I’ve already gone into detail about. But the 2024 Timbers have Felipe Mora on the roster, and starting Rodriguez up top wouldn’t push Mora out wide. With that in mind, Rodriguez prefers to play up top in a strike partnership or out wide on the left. Here are two possible lineups that the Timbers could use to play to Rodriguez’s strengths:

Both of these lineups have massive caveats. While they may play to Rodriguez’s strengths, they also sacrifice balance in the team. You can’t drop Evander, so in Exhibit A he’s in a midfield partnership with Diego Chara. There needs to be another holding midfielder next to our captain, so I don’t think we’d ever see a variation of that in game. Exhibit B is a very good lineup, but Antony has started 2024 on fire and he’s undroppable at the current moment. Which is why Rodriguez will need to step out of his comfort zone and play as a sole striker. 

I do believe that the Timbers repeating the past in this instance is a good thing. Rodriguez comes with an impressive pedigree of winning trophies.

This history of winning will definitely boost the locker room, which is still missing the leadership of the departed Sebastian Blanco and Yimmi Chara. Yes, there have been no indicators that the locker room has turned sour, but adding a proven winner and goal-scorer can only help. The Portland Timbers now have a 5’11” forward who can play anywhere across the front line, and he is tasked with bringing trophies to Portland. He’s here to boost a team that is still figuring out how to control games but collecting results as they adapt to their new coach. Contrary to my prior thoughts, I now believe he is the right player for this moment in time. Now the work can truly begin.

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