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Vancouver Whitecaps-Portland Timbers Preview (9/28)

Break the BC Place losing streak.

After Leagues Cup ended, every single game that the Portland Timbers played was their “most important game of the season.” Results were needed. Points couldn’t be dropped. But now, as the Timbers head to Vancouver for the second time this year, that statement is more true than ever. Multiple trophies are up for grabs.

The Whitecaps Report

The Vancouver Whitecaps lost 2-0 (Dos eh Cero) at Providence Park on June 22nd. What has happened since then?

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They went unbeaten in their next 5 league games (6 overall if you count a 1-0 victory against Pacific FC in the Canadian Championship) before falling victim to the Houston Dynamo right before Leagues Cup. The Whitecaps advanced out of their Leagues Cup group after beating LAFC on penalties and Club Tijuana in regulation. Their run ended in the Round of 32 after losing 2-0 at home to Pumas. Vancouver went unbeaten in their first 4 league games after the season resumed before losing 4-2 to the LA Galaxy in Carson. However, since losing to Portland in June, the Whitecaps have only played 4 games out of 11 against teams above the playoff line. Their record in those games are 1-1-2. But they still have a big “advantage” over other Western Conference teams fighting for the 4 seed: a game in hand. They will host LAFC on October 13th while every other Western Conference team has a week off. But their record against playoff teams is a bit worrisome. Can they take care of business against the best teams in the West?

Vancouver (13-7-9, 46 points, 7W/10S) has been unable to shake their reputation as a “good, not great” team. Head coach Vanni Sartini describes himself as a “socialist” and his team is a very good reflection of their manager. Ryan Gauld is the “star” of this team, but he works just as hard off the ball as he does when it’s at his feet. Brian White, when healthy, is one of the best strikers in MLS. Before the summer window, those were the only two star players that the Whitecaps had. Then Stuart Armstrong arrived on a free transfer from Southampton. He is a bit on the older side (age 32) but should fit in with this team that is better as a collective than individuals. Sartini makes it all work.

Their primary mode of attack is through the wings. Sartini doesn’t utilize his wide players as wingbacks but rather wide midfielders. The Whitecaps love to progress the ball out wide and send crosses into the box. They lead the league in average completed crosses into the penalty area per 90. The attack is predicated on winning the ball back in their own half before quickly counter-attacking down the wings. It works, and Vancouver is really adept at this style of play. Sartini’s teams are very hard to play against because of how hard they work together as a unit.

The Whitecaps won the Canadian Championship for the 3rd consecutive season on Wednesday. I mean, it’s kind of impressive, but Toronto took them to penalties and probably should have won it in regulation. Ryan Gauld, Andres Cubas, Brian White, Ranko Veselinovic, Bjorn Utvik, and Matias Laborda played the full 90. Gauld is questionable for tomorrow’s game. So is Ali Ahmed.

I know one thing for certain: Stuart Armstrong will start tomorrow’s game. Gauld may be listed as questionable, but I think he has to start. Brian White will also be in the lineup. Blackmon makes his return to the XI to start in a back three with Veselinovic and Laborda. I think Sebastian Berhalter (yes, the son of Gregg) gets a start at right wing-back with Ahmed’s availability in doubt. Vite and Cubas is a good double pivot. Takaoka starts after taking a backseat for the Canadian Championship. This is a good team that knows how to play together.

The Timbers Report

After the Timbers drew 3-3 in Salt Lake City last weekend, their winless streak away from home increased to 5. To be fair, on paper, a draw in Salt Lake at the end of a short week is a very good result. Now they have four games remaining, and two of them are on the road. Both of those road games are against their Cascadia rivals, while their remaining home games are against Austin and Dallas. Those Texas teams are below the playoff line. In a way, the schedule has been very kind to Portland. In the final stretch of the season, you need to build momentum. The Timbers are set up to do exactly that.

Normally I like to talk about the league table at the end of these preview articles, but there’s a more important table to talk about later. There are ways for the Portland Timbers to clinch a playoff berth tomorrow, but I really don’t care about the playoffs right now. There is a 7-point gap between 8th-place Portland and 10th-place Dallas, with a 9-point gap between Portland and 11th-placed Austin. Both Austin and Dallas will come to Providence Park this week, and both could be eliminated from playoff contention before their flights land at the newly renovated PDX. The rest of the games this weekend could lead to dropped points in the race for 4th place. Although it may be fun to speculate about playoff scenarios, the players and coaches shouldn’t really care about them right now. There is only one thing they need to do tomorrow: beat the Vancouver Whitecaps.

Evander picked up a yellow card for dissent against Real Salt Lake and he is suspended for tomorrow’s game. Since his arrival, Evander has developed a hatred for the Canadians, registering 4g/2a in 4 games against them. His loss will be massive, but it should also motivate the team. In 2024, the Portland Timbers have won 3 road games. Evander scored a Goal of the Year contender to beat NYCFC back in March, he scored a brilliant free-kick to beat Austin in May, and a well-timed pressure allowed him to slot home an early goal in San Jose in June. Simply put: the Timbers haven’t won a road game without Evander in the lineup this season. This is a monkey they simply need to get off their back. The Whitecaps, oddly, aren’t a great home team with a 6-3-4 record at BC Place. This game is very winnable even without Evander in the team. It also helps that their toughest game takes place at the beginning of this upcoming three-match week. Any result besides a win is not going to help this team at all. They must leave BC Place with all three points.

Mason Toye is out with a back injury following the dirty challenge from Brayan Vera last weekend. David Ayala is questionable with a “lower body” injury. The Argentine trained in full on Thursday.

The Timbers have to go with their best possible XI tomorrow. Zuparic returns after serving his suspension against RSL. Claudio Bravo had a full week of training and should be in from the start. Williamson slots in for the suspended Evander, and Paredes starts next to Chara with Ayala available as a substitute. Would this be my first-choice XI? No, but my job is to predict what the Timbers will do. Specifically, I would change the fullbacks. Why is that?

Tactical Preview

Going Wide

Finally, I get to talk about tactics in a tactical preview again. There is one specific thing that the Timbers need to do in order to win tomorrow: defend the wide areas and stop crosses. In the first half of the 3-2 loss in Vancouver back in March, the Timbers’ inability to defend out wide cost them two first half goals. The Whitecaps tend to cede the middle of the field in order to progress the ball down the wings. So Portland will need to adequately defend the wide areas in order to prevent the killer crosses from Vancouver’s attackers and wingbacks. In order for Portland to do that, they need positional discipline from their fullbacks. Those fullbacks will also need to balance defending with their attacking duties, but I think one player could solve both problems.

Watching Miguel Araujo’s cross that led to Jonathan Rodriguez’s equalizer gave me some serious thought for tomorrow’s game. Even though Juan Mosquera has vastly improved his defending, I think the Timbers need to prioritize defense instead of goal-scoring tomorrow. Starting Araujo at right back instead of Mosquera and keeping the Colombian available as a fresh attacking-minded sub could be a stroke of genius from Phil Neville. Keep in mind that the Timbers will not have Mason Toye or Evander available tomorrow. Araujo had an excellent week against Colorado, LA, and RSL. Miller and Zuparic should be the first choice CB pairing, but Araujo’s ability to defend on the boundary and progress the ball with his wonderful passing range could be the Timbers’ secret weapon to stabilize the backline and allow Bravo the freedom to get forward.

This doesn’t just apply to the fullbacks either. Eryk Williamson is filling in for Evander, and those are pretty big shoes to fill. But my true X-Factor for this match is Santiago Moreno.

This is his heatmap from the RSL game. It does not look like the heatmap of a right winger. When Mosquera goes forward, Moreno tends to move into central areas while Mosquera provides width. Because Mosquera likes to get forward with almost reckless abandon, it leaves a ton of space behind him for opposing teams to exploit. Moreno has to stay wider tomorrow and continue his excellent defensive work in order for the Timbers to maintain their shape and minimize Vancouver’s dangerous attacks down the flanks.

PRESS!

After going down 2-0 before halftime against Vancouver in March, the Timbers shifted the tide by pressing high in the second half. Instead of waiting for the second half to begin their press, they need to start this game on the front foot with and without the ball. Vancouver just played a cup final on Wednesday, and they will be a little exhausted both physically and emotionally. The Timbers, with a full week of rest, need to impose their will on Vancouver during the first half. Scoring the first goal (especially on the road) is very important for this team. Try to hit Vancouver with a first half of fury and get as many goals as you can. Playing for the second half would be unacceptable. For the first time this year, the Timbers need to take care of business in the first half on the road. In order to do that, they need to press high from the opening whistle.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Whitecaps fans should count themselves lucky. Since MLS switched over to Apple TV, they got to keep their home commentators from TSN: Blake Price and Paul Dolan. Both of them will be on the call in English tomorrow and will definitely not be biased towards the hosts (eyeroll). Francisco X. Rivera and Diego Arrioja will be on the Spanish broadcast. Tomorrow’s game is scheduled to kickoff at 7:30 PM PST, and it is NOT FREE on Apple TV.

Referee Report

Joe Dickerson will be the center referee for tomorrow’s match. The only Timbers game he officiated in 2024 was the 3-0 victory against RSL on July 14th. He has only refereed one Whitecaps game in 2024: the 2-1 loss on May 26th against Inter Miami.

2024 stats: 13 games, 24.54 fouls/game, 0.46 penalties/game, 4.92 yellows/game, 0.08 reds/game

Series History

While Portland and Seattle constantly bicker between who is the big brother, the Vancouver Whitecaps get largely ignored because they are the permanent little brother. This sentiment also rings true in their 3-way rivalry with the 2 Canadian MLS clubs. Portland’s historical record against the Whitecaps is 18-8-12. At BC Place, the Timbers are 8-2-8, but they haven’t won in Vancouver since April 9th, 2022 (2 consecutive losses). Time to reclaim our house in the middle of BC.

The Only Table That Matters

Whoever scheduled three Cascadia Cup matches in the final month of the season should be put in the stocks in the middle of Pioneer Courthouse Square. The Portland Timbers were left for dead after losing both of their opening Cascadia matches this season before winning their next two. There is only one completely unacceptable result tomorrow: a loss. If the Timbers lose tomorrow, they will not be able to win the Cup. On Wednesday, Vancouver hosts Seattle. If the Timbers draw tomorrow, they have to root for a draw on Wednesday to keep their Cup hopes alive. Of course, everyone wants the Timbers to win tomorrow. Obviously, that is the best possible result for every scenario league-wise and Cup-wise. That makes Wednesday’s game even more interesting. If they win tomorrow, and Wednesday’s game ends in a draw, the Portland Timbers will win the Cup. They have to take care of business on their end (duh) but they could enter Lumen Field on Decision Day with the Cup in hand. I’m rather nihilistic about their playoff seeding (they will qualify for the playoffs this year) so I don’t care about the playoff ramifications of a Whitecaps-Sounders draw on Wednesday. All that matters right now (at least in my mind) is the Cascadia Cup. Let’s return the Cup to its rightful home in the Rose City.

Win this game. Melt the Caps.