Vancouver Whitecaps-Portland Timbers Preview (9/24)
Since the last week of May, the Portland Timbers have existed in a mythical state that they rarely occupy: Game-in-Hand Land. As the majority of Western Conference teams stayed on schedule, the Timbers held onto the hope that the potential three points held in their pocket would come in handy later in the season. Well, tomorrow is Judgement Day. And it’s extremely fitting that in order to get back on schedule, they have to face the team that traumatized them twice in the past year: the Vancouver Whitecaps.
The Whitecaps Report
I’d like to begin with a few words from February prior to the 2025 season opener. Specifically, a sentient prediction from Vancouver CEO Axel Schuster.
This was followed by the complete opposite.
MLS is a crazy league; filled with a smorgasbord of teams with different identities. And in 2025, there is no bigger story in Major League Soccer than the Vancouver Whitecaps.
I didn’t believe in this team after the season opener. Playing for 80+ minutes up a man against a team that you dominated 5-0 in the same building and winning 4-1 doesn’t move the needle. However, the Whitecaps were about to inspire levels of belief that rivaled a certain Apple TV character who is on a show that I’ve never watched (but have seen the memes, unfortunately).
Portland was supposed to play Vancouver on May 31st. However, due to an extraordinary run in the CONCACAF Champions’ Cup (League), the reverse fixture had to be postponed. Let’s go through this run, because it might be the most impressive performance on the continent by any MLS team in the league’s 30-year history.
Prior to the season opener, Vancouver lost the first leg of their Round 1 tie against Saprissa in Costa Rica. A late winner by Ariel Rodriguez saw the Whitecaps enter the second leg down by one goal on aggregate. That deficit was reversed in the 46th minute by Brian White, who followed up with a late “winner” (away goals still count in CCC) in the first minute of second-half stoppage time to win the tie on aggregate. Monterrey was their next opponent, and the Whitecaps scored a late goal in Leg 1 to send the series to Mexico tied on aggregate. In theory, they could have won that first leg by a lot more based on the quality of chances that they missed.
The second leg was a complete reversal of the 1-1 draw in Leg 1. Monterrey dominated, but Vancouver scored 2 of their 3 shots on target. It ended 2-2, and away goals pushed Vancouver into the quarterfinals. That’s when Pumas was lobbed into their court. The Whitecaps did the same thing to Pumas that they did to Monterrey (1-1 Leg 1 victory at home, 2-2 Leg 2 victory in Mexico). But Leg 2 was punctuated by a Tristan Blackmon header in second-half stoppage time that tied the game and won the round for Vancouver. Somehow, they were in the semifinals. That brought them face-to-face with Inter Miami. After drawing four consecutive CCC games in the previous two rounds, they beat the self-anointed kings of American soccer in both legs. Vancouver’s mystifying run took them to Costa Rica, Mexico (twice), and a temporary stadium that happens to house the world’s greatest player. They survived and advanced past each test, and their reward was a one-game final on June 1st in the home stadium of Cruz Azul, their opponents: the Estadio Olimpico Universitario in Mexico City.
Before we get to this gigantic title game, something else needs to be acknowledged. Most MLS teams who make deep CCC runs usually pay the price in league play with a dip in form. Their MLS results suffer because the choice left to coaches is to prioritize one or the other. The Vancouver Whitecaps, of all teams, were able to succeed on both fronts. This is even more impressive than usual for reasons that I will get into later.
There’s a metric called expected goal differential (xGD) that illustrates how good a team is based on the quality of chances they create and concede. The 2025 Whitecaps are an xGD juggernaut.
This is insane. The only blip is a 5-game stretch in June/July that saw the Whitecaps lose the xG battle in each of those games. They took 3 points out of a possible 15, but have been utter dynamite throughout the rest of the season. This isn’t the best season by xGD in MLS history (well, since 2018, since xG data only goes that far), but it’s easily one of the most impressive.
If the season ended today, the Whitecaps would have the 7th-highest xGD in MLS history. Every team in this image (aside from the 2018 Columbus Crew and 2021 LAFC (who missed the playoffs entirely)) made their respective Conference Final(s), at minimum. Several MLS Cup winners are here: 2018 Atlanta, 2022 LAFC, and 2021 NYCFC. Other MLS Cup finalists are listed: 2022 Philadelphia, 2020 Seattle, 2023 LAFC. Oddly enough, the only team from 2025 in this sample is LAFC, who have also played a total of 29 games at this juncture. 2025 Vancouver has the highest clean sheet percentage in this dataset as well. They’re a juggernaut. But how does that compare when the 10 penalties (tied for the 4th-most in a season (15th-most based on the amount of teams to reach 10 penalty attempts in a season) are removed?
They’re still elite. Shocker. They aren’t going to catch teams like 2019 LAFC or 2018 Atlanta with only 5 games left, but this team has become a juggernaut seemingly out of nowhere. And we’re still missing the biggest reason why this is so impressive: Vancouver’s injury crisis.
It began in early March when Ryan Gauld left the 2-0 win against Montreal in the 24th minute with a knee injury. He hasn’t played in a game since. Despite a few training sessions, the Scottish stalwart hasn’t made a single matchday squad in over 6 months. Last year’s Whitecaps leaned heavily on Gauld. With the absence of their best player from last season, Vancouver has been able to succeed to a mind-boggling degree. Brian White has been a consistent scorer and currently leads the team with 14 goals, but he hasn’t played since August 23rd. Sam Adekugbe has been stricken by two separate injuries in 2025: a hamstring in the spring that caused him to miss 15 games and an Achilles tear in early June that sidelined him for the season. Starting center back Ranko Veselinovic tore his ACL in late July. Ali Ahmed missed two months with an ankle injury. Wingers Jayden Nelson and Emmanuel Sabbi have missed time sporadically. That’s a fair amount of first-team players who have been unable to feature for the Whitecaps. And, somehow, the machine keeps rolling.
In their last five league games, Vancouver (16-7-6, 55 points, 2W/4S) is 3-1-1 (current 3-game winning streak). They were set to pick up a draw in San Jose after being down a man (in very controversial fashion, I’ve never seen a referee get doxxed before in MLS) since the 27th minute. Then they got Preston Judd’ed (that’s a verb, by the way) and lost in the 4th minute of second half stoppage time. Their last three games have been a controversial 3-2 win against St. Louis, a 7-0 drubbing of Philadelphia (who show up on that NPxG differential chart above the Whitecaps), and a 2-0 win in Kansas City. But with a deep playoff run on the cards, the case can be made that they’ve played their most important game of the season already.
Now we head back to June 1st in Mexico City. The Whitecaps were without Sebastian Berhalter due to a yellow card suspension, but Sorensen’s plug-and-play ability was already established (by June 1st! Once again, HOW??). What happened to a Vancouver team that was looking like a team of destiny? In a few short words, they shit themselves.
The alleged pants-shitting was not confined to the game itself. On June 1st, with the highest stakes possible, the Vancouver Whitecaps played their worst game of the season. They entered halftime down 5-0 after each of Cruz Azul’s 5 shots on target found the back of Yohei Takaoka’s net. Andres Cubas, their only elite player whose availability has been unquestioned throughout 2025, committed crucial errors on 3 of those goals. Nothing worked, and they were punished to a degree that was even worse than the 5-0 drubbing they handed their rivals last October. Their path to another CCC run is still open due to their advancement to the final of the Canadian Championship, but they were 90 minutes away from eternal glory. That’s gotta hurt. After the game, a “significant number” of players and staff had gastrointestinal problems. Canadian national team head coach Jesse Marsch went as far to say that the players were “poisoned,” even though the illness struck after Vancouver’s return to Canada.
This is already the best Whitecaps team of the MLS era. They’ve set new records for goalscoring and points in a season. With the addition of Thomas Muller in the summer transfer window, they have a marketable name whose production (4g/1a in 3 games) is already surpassing expectations (caveat: 3 of those 4 goals were penalty kicks). Not only have they reached the biggest game in North America, their season hasn’t taken the expected stumble that usually follows such an outpouring of energy in the season’s early months. As they continue to compete for the top spot in the West and the Supporters’ Shield, Schuster’s prediction has never been more true.
With a fully healthy team, Sorensen would be a clear Coach of the Year winner. And with all the absences the Whitecaps have had to deal with, no other coach in MLS should even be in contention for the award. Other coaches have been able to steer sinking ships to new heights (Philadelphia’s Bradley Carnell and Nashville’s BJ Callaghan), and one coach is about to finish the best inaugural season by an expansion team in league history (San Diego’s Mikey Varas), but Sorensen’s job with the Whitecaps is beyond exceptional. Even in a historic pool of turnarounds and arrivals, Jesper Sorensen’s Vancouver Whitecaps are the story of the league in 2025.
VAN Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
This is astounding. The absences of Adekugbe, Blackmon, Gauld (safe assumption) and Veselinovic were expected (along with Pupe and Schonlau, the two summer center back signings who have yet to make the matchday squad). However, on Saturday in Kansas City, Cubas and Ocampo picked up yellow cards and were hit with an accumulation suspension for tomorrow’s match. That’s massive, particularly in the case of Cubas. I thought Muller’s absence in KC was mostly precautionary, but it appears that it’s actually very serious. However, Brian White is available after missing their last 3 games (across all competitions).
Let’s begin with the players who will absolutely start tomorrow: Halbouni, Laborda, Johnson, Berhalter, Ahmed, and Cabrera. The first two were the center back starters against SKC. Johnson has been a revelation as an academy player. Berhalter is putting together a Best-XI caliber season. Ahmed is the most underrated winger in the league. Cabrera is a summer signing who occupies the U22 slot vacated by the departed Pedro Vite.
White could be healthy enough to start, and his reputation as a Timber killer could force Sorensen’s hand. But White’s availability for the playoffs might be more important than a rivalry game against a team that Vancouver has destroyed 9-1 on aggregate over their past two meetings, so Daniel Rios could get the start up top instead. Emmanuel Sabbi is usually Sorensen’s preferred option on the right, but I’m sure that Nelson’s dominating performance in the season opener hasn’t escaped the Dane’s mind. Bovalina is the likely choice to fill in for the suspended Ocampo, while Priso occupies the same role as Cubas. There could be some more rotations with the match against Seattle looming on the weekend, but this is Sorensen’s chance to lock up the Cascadia Cup. I think he goes with his best available XI.
The Timbers Report
Time to replay the hits. The Portland Timbers (11-9-10, 42 points, 7W/17S) cannot afford to lick their wounds. A rivalry game is on the horizon, and the Timbers have to win if they want to keep the Cascadia Cup in the Rose City.
The xGD Test
I’ve already talked about Vancouver’s incredible xGD this season. So what does Portland’s look like?
This is a pretty cool chart because you can pinpoint the exact eras of the season. The dotted lines become solid at the Colorado game that the Timbers won 3-0. That game was the catalyst for a 7-game unbeaten streak that ended with a thud on May 3rd in San Jose. The summer swoon is illustrated pretty clearly, and the “positive” upswing on the right coincides with the arrival of the Summer Three. Saturday’s loss in Houston shows up at the end with a big jump from the red line and the blue line leveling out. But this chart tracks the swings game-by-game. How does it compare to their raw xGD total? And how does that total compare to the rest of the league?
This is a reminder that these metrics don’t mean everything and the game still needs to be played on the field (hello Cincinnati and San Jose). In the spring, when the Timbers were slowly climbing up the Western Conference table, several prominent pundits looked at this metric and concluded that the Timbers were frauds. I delighted in Portland’s fraudulence and wanted them to keep winning to prove that these stats don’t tell the whole story. However, with the season nearly over, the Timbers’ offensive failures couldn’t keep the positive results coming. However, they do have the best PPG out of the bottom 10 teams in this metric. I don’t think that can be hung on a banner.
The vengeful Underlying Numbers are not punishing the Timbers. Instead, Portland has fallen victim to their own inconsistency. Tomorrow’s game against Vancouver isn’t just a derby. It is a battle of consistency vs. inconsistency, the system vs. individuals, and legitimacy vs. fraud. This is a game that the Timbers aren’t expected to win. It’s a game that a lot of people want them to win, from their own fans to other teams fighting the Whitecaps in the race for the Shield. It’s setting up an opportunity for the Timbers to be the spoiler that ends all spoilers.
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Crepeau is working his way through concussion protocol, and Phil Neville hinted that he might be available for Saturday’s game against Dallas. The main story is Fory and Mosquera. Both were training on the side today, but this is a massive game. Neville took the side of “We’ll see what happens” in regards to his Colombian fullbacks.
I’m erring on the side of caution in regards to Fory and Mosquera. Although I believe that they make the bench, I’m predicting a lineup in which both of them are unavailable. The controversial part is selecting Antony at right back, rather than right wing-back. I think that Neville is going to want to keep the 4-2-3-1, and that means another start for Da Costa. Kamal Miller seems the likeliest choice to fill in at left back given Portland’s tactics. Chara should get the start because he’s two starts away from 500. This is a good game to give Kelsy the mantle. Rojas and Velde should be in from the jump too.
Tactical Preview
Out of Possession
I haven’t been quiet about what I believe to be Portland’s biggest weakness; the one that will be exploited in the playoffs. After a lackluster showing against Houston, here’s what Neville had to say about the team’s identity out-of-possession:
“We want to be a high-pressure, high-intensity team that wins the ball back. Against Houston I thought we were too passive. We allowed too many balls to come central, we didn’t affect their players on the ball. Watching the game back, I didn’t think we played well, but I was bored watching us, and that’s not what this team is about. It’s not what I want from the identity of this team. I want us to be exciting. I want us to be front-foot. So I said to them [the team] this morning is that tomorrow night we’ve got to go and we’ve got to create some form of chaos in there…”
Introducing Chaos
That’s not where the quote ends, but it’s a perfect jumping off point for the next section. Creating chaos doesn’t just apply to the defensive side of the ball. If the Timbers were to take any lesson attacking-wise from the Houston game, it’s the fact that doing something is better than doing nothing. They don’t need to play like world-beaters, but they need to take all the urgency that they didn’t use against the Dynamo and throw it against their tormentors. Not only is it a very important game for the Timbers table-wise, it’s a rivalry game. You have to show fire and drive against a rival, particularly one that has delivered losses that still hurt despite months of separation between games.
Set Pieces
This is the designated Sebastian Berhalter section. Although Berhalter’s improvements in possession have been noticeable now that he’s a proper midfielder instead of a wingback, his biggest threat remains his dead-ball deliveries. Vancouver’s 12 set-piece goals are tied for 4th-most in the league. Like usual, Portland’s continued inconsistency on attacking set pieces could be a difference maker too.
Matchday Info
Announcer Analytics
English: Keith Costigan & Maurice Edu
Spanish: Carlos Mauricio Ramirez & Max Cordaro
Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: not available on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST
Referee Report
Jon Freemon’s 2025 stats: 19 games, 24.21 fouls/game, 0.26 penalties/game, 4.53 yellows/game, 0.11 reds/game
Last Timbers game officiated: July 6th, 2025 vs. NE 2-1 W
Series History
Historical record: 18-9-14, +5 goal differential
Road record (AT BC PLACE): 7-3-7, +1 goal differential
Current streak: 2 losses (3 winless)
Current road streak: 3 winless (no, I’m not counting the Wild Card Game)
Table Time
Game-in-Hand Land ends tomorrow. Portland can leapfrog Austin for 6th place or they can remain in 7th with any other result. The Whitecaps have two games in hand in their race for the Shield and the top spot in the West. A win tomorrow puts them in pole position for first place, and they would have an extra game in hand to boot.
Vancouver is probably going to win the cup even if the Timbers win tomorrow. The Whitecaps’ final game in the Cascadia Cup is on Saturday in Seattle. I’m backing Vancouver to get the job done. Anyways, it would mark the 2nd time in a row that the Timbers handed the cup back to the Whitecaps. I’m completely in favor of this new arraignment, especially because Seattle’s loss in Vancouver back in June was incredibly satisfying. The Sounders continued to innovate by picking up TWO red cards in the span of four minutes against a Whitecaps team that was so rotated it belonged on a Tilt-A-Whirl. In conclusion:
Final Whistle
Vancouver has always been the second-biggest rival to Portland. While the Sounders and Timbers were trading Western Conference titles, the Whitecaps were struggling. However, in the span of one year, they’ve been able to turn it around. Now they are the big dogs in the region; achieving dominance at a level that has horrified their neighbors and the rest of the league. This begs a serious question: are the Timbers now the little brother in the Pacific Northwest?
Vancouver’s run of Canadian Championships don’t count. But their rapid rise from annoying pest to juggernaut has pushed the Timbers to the bottom of Cascadian relevance. Seattle will always have a platform, but now the Whitecaps are the talk of the town. Portland used to be there. Now games come and go with broadcasters mispronouncing names and misidentifying players. When you are a relevant club, your status demands the respect of the wider MLS media landscape.
Take Andres Cubas for example. Prior to this season, most MLS fans knew him as one of the top defensive midfielders in the league. Now, due to his team’s record and his own contributions to their stellar season, he’s rightfully getting his flowers. Respect comes when you have the results to prove it.
All throughout 2025, the Portland Timbers have been disrespected. From those who looked at their xGD and called them frauds to those who assumed their season was over the second Jonathan Rodriguez was put on SEI, it’s been a mountain of disrespect lobbed in the direction of Providence Park (a stadium with an ACTUAL turf pitch unlike the garbage at BC Place). This isn’t just a rivalry match, or the mythical battle between legitimacy and fraud. It’s a chance for the Timbers to get some respect back.
In the last two meetings between these teams, Vancouver showed up at Providence Park and clobbered Portland. Their immediate chance to exact revenge on the Whitecaps blew up in their faces. Maybe this postponement actually worked in their favor. After a lazy showing in Houston, a trip to Vancouver couldn’t be timed any better. Remember Neville’s quote from Saturday night? “When we play the top teams, there’s no pressure on us.”
This game is unique. It exists in a reality where the Timbers simultaneously have no pressure and all of the pressure. Because they are playing a top team, they don’t have any pressure. But since that top team is the Vancouver Whitecaps, and their last two meetings have resulted in utter humiliations for Portland, heaps of pressure are on the Timbers to get a win. A trophy is at stake. Pride is at stake. The chance to set the tone for the last mile of the marathon is at stake. They cannot disappoint. The climb continues.
