What's going on with Portland?

The worst start of the season in their history. Plain and simple, that’s how you might define Portland’s situation so far. What are the reasons behind these bad results? Let’s analyze some.

Goals against

They say goals against are not the product of only one mistake but they’re like a chain reaction. At minute two the Thorns were attacking on the left side of the box but Louisville closed down defensively and made a clearance. The ball fell into Becky Sauerbrunn’s feet and then she tried to build up by passing it to her fellow centreback Kelli Hubly. She then had two passing options: Reyna Reyes, who was opened on the right, near the sideline, and Janine Beckie, who was closely followed by a marker and had another opponent near to cut the passing channel.

The right centreback decided to pass to the latter and therefore, lost possession, leading to Racing’s counterattack. Beckie tried to regain the ball but that only led to her having a poor first touch which in turn gifted the ball to Uchenna Kanu inside the box. Goalkeeper Shelby Hogan was guarding the first post while Hubly and Reyna Reyes closely marked the Nigerian who had her back to goal. Nonetheless, the defense let her turn and shoot to the far post. The Thorns were doing man-to-man marking instead of zonal and Kanu surprised them all by deciding to shoot.

Moreover, Racing Louisville surprised everybody by opening the score in minute three.

Portland was determined to build from the back and Louisville let them do so until they reached their side of the field. Then they double-marked whoever had the ball to make them lose possession and then they would advance some yards on the field, putting numbers forward to apply high press. That’s how the second goal came, with Sauerbrunn losing the ball and the following cross to the box. Kanu was once again double-marked by Hubly and Reyes but she beat both – and Hogan – in an aerial duel.

So a series of bad decisions, turnovers, and defensive mistakes are the recipe the Thorns are following so far, above all in the first halves. But let’s talk briefly about the elephant in the room: goalkeeper Shelby Hogan.

After Portland was the envy of the league for years due to its high-quality goalkeepers, it’s sad to say that it looks like that’s not the case anymore. Bella Bixby and Britt Eckerstrom were the last two quality keepers in a long line of goalkeepers coached by Nadine Angerer.

Despite this, Bixby’s quality started to drop at the end of 2022 and more than one fan asked why Hogan wasn’t given an opportunity since the few times coach Norris and other former coaches put her on goal, she did well.

Well, the lack of playing time, the absence of Angerer, and the fact that almost nobody expected Bixby to be out for the entire 2024 might be playing a part in the way Hogan is performing.

The goalie’s numbers are not good at all. According to American Soccer Analysis, her G-xG is 2.50 which is the worst among starting goalkeepers in the NWSL. But what does that value mean? Well, that’s a metric that indicates if a keeper has allowed fewer or more goals than expected and it’s based on shots on target only. Negative numbers are better but in the case of Hogan, her G-xG is the highest so far which means she has allowed more goals than expected. Yikes.

Not the best performance by some Canadians

In stark contrast with their first match of the season, neither Jessie Fleming nor Janine Beckie had much impact in this game.

In the match against Kansas, Fleming had a hard time in the first 45 minutes but the midfielder showed why she is the most important signing for the Thorns this season in the second half. However, she couldn’t have the same performance against Gotham or Louisville, although she did better this time than against the NJ/NY team. 

Fleming’s stats show she only won three duels in the entire time she spent on the field, she created only one chance, and defensively she contributed with three tackles.

While Beckie amazed everybody in the 45 minutes she spent on the field against Kansas, unfortunately, that wasn’t the case this time. 

Olivia or Hina?

“Why is coach Mike Norris not starting Hina Sugita?” must be one of the most common questions in fans’ heads nowadays. The sneaky midfielder has become instrumental since her arrival in Portland and her work rate is one of the best in the league. 

However, the youngest midfielder in the squad has grown a lot and has shown why she has a spot in the starting XI.

Both midfielders have qualities that the other doesn’t possess and the areas where both operate are different too as you can see in the heatmaps below.

While Moultrie plays on the midfield’s left side, Sugita stays mostly centrally and moves to left and right as she sees fit. Therefore, the Japanese suited the team better against Louisville because the Thorns weren’t using the right wing to attack as much. After Sugita entered the game, she changed that and helped the team to attack through both flanks and have more options.

Despite this, Moultrie did well in the 45 minutes she spent on the field, creating four chances which was the most any thorn created only in the first half.

It is understandable, though, that fans might prefer Sugita since she can connect the team better in the final third, not only on one side of the field. Also, her presence on the pitch helps Smith to occupy her natural position as we will see later.

The case for Meghan Klingenberg

After two games where coach Mike Norris decided not to use the veteran left fullback at all, he decided it was her time against Louisville. Reyna Reyes did well defensively but the team needed more firepower inside the box. Hence, enters Meghan Klingenberg. She made herself a name in Portland for her precise crosses to the box and her offensive prowess. In terms of speed, though, that has always been her Achilles heel.

Despite this, the team didn’t suffer much when Klingenberg was high up the pitch because Sauerbrunn and Fleming covered for her when needed. Besides, Portland stayed on Louisville’s side of the pitch for almost the entire second half.

As a result of Klingenberg’s presence on the left, Marie Müller moved to the right. That helped Portland use the entire pitch as you can see in the heat maps above, although the team kept having a stronger presence on the left side.

The understanding between the veteran and Weaver was notorious since those had been occupying that left wing for more than three years and that helped Weaver to play with more freedom.

Is Weaver more of a supporting character this season?

Sophia Smith is the DP in the Thorns and understandably so. Nonetheless, that has harmed the team a little much this year. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that Smith is the most dangerous player in the squad and that if she’s open, the ball should go to her most of the time.

However, Portland’s best version of themselves has always been when they have played as a team. The Thorns were the most dangerous when the Smith-Weaver partnership was more well balanced and Smith was the cherry on top and not the main meal (or dessert?).

Despite this, it seems as if lately Weaver’s presence inside the box (as well as shots) have been reduced so Smith can have as many balls as possible. However, as we have seen in Portland’s first goal against Racing, the team is the most dangerous when those two work synergically as close as possible or inside the box.

In the image below, we can see Louisville’s monumental error by leaving both Smith and Weaver unmarked previous to Portland’s first goal.

Then the ball falls to Smith and the defense hurries to close down the space in front of her but it’s too late. She already passed the ball to Weaver who is still unmarked and then beats Katie Lund with a low diagonal shot to the far post.

Weaver can score if they give her the opportunity. The 7 goals and 4 assists she registered last season are proof of that.

Play with Sophia or for Sophia?

We already established that the team is better when they play as that, as a team. Besides, other clubs are heavily marking Smith and although she can sneak out of their markers or shoot even though she’s tightly marked, it isn’t always the case.

Racing Louisville was very disciplined in this regard and blocked almost every shot she could take as you can see in the image below, indicated with blue circles.

Smith would often find a wall of Lavender shirts in front of her in this game, and it was hard for the striker to find space to shoot on target.

As the game went South we saw her move to the right and play as an inside forward. She would get the ball on the right wing and then move centrally to create a chance or find space to shoot. Unfortunately, this didn’t work much either due to the Lavender wall already mentioned.

This point is well illustrated in the image above. Smith tried to outsmart the defense with her dribbling abilities but the defenders did their best to not let her get past them. This is one of the reasons why she lost 13 (!) duels.

The thing is, when a single player attracts so much attention others end up unmarked and with more space to receive the ball just like Moultrie and Beckie are in the image below. And this is when players have to be smart and make the right decisions. Smith tried to beat the defenders but of course, she didn’t succeed because she was surrounded by half a dozen defenders. Hence, the opportunity got lost.

Moreover, her duties as an inside forward didn’t do her any favors. She usually ended up far away from the box and trying to distribute the ball as if she were Coffey but without the expertise, isolated on the wing, or frustrated because of a bad pass and having to track back to recover the ball which would leave her too far away from the box where she’s the most dangerous.

Thank goodness she didn’t stay in that position for long. The introduction of Sugita to the game allowed her to be the nine again and stay centrally while the Japanese distributed the ball to right and left in zones 13, 14, and 15.

Conclusion

As we have seen, a mix of bad goalkeeping, midfielders underperforming, defensive mistakes, coaching decisions regarding personnel, putting players where they are not their best version of themselves, and so on have been the perfect recipe for the Thorns poor results.

What is more, we haven’t touch on the development of certain players such Izzy D’Aquila who should be showing so much more after spending some year with the club but that’s a conversation for another time.

The season just started and we shouldn’t be hitting the panic button just yet but the fact that Portland is struggling in every line on the field makes you think if it isn’t time for drastic measures no matter if we’re just at the beginning of April.