When It Rains, It Pours

*Cover photo credit to Jack Lewy/Undrafted US.*

The Portland Timbers opened the 2025 season with a rematch against the Vancouver Whitecaps who beat them 5-0 in the 2024 Wild Card Game. A chance to begin the season on a high note ended in a 4-1 loss at Providence Park.

Today’s starting lineup wasn’t surprising.

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Phil Neville has been using a back three for the entirety of preseason, and there was no reason to change their most-used system. The players selected weren’t surprising either. With David da Costa available due to securing a work visa, the Timbers were set up to defend/counter in the first half and go for the win in the second.

Then the game actually started. Before the Timbers could even grow into the game, a flicked-on ball from Ryan Gauld over the top of the defense sent Brian White through on goal in the 11th minute. Kamal Miller was the only player who could catch up to him, and he did. However, the contact from Miller brought White down, but White returned to his feet and was on the receiving end of another Miller challenge. After the second challenge, the referee (Victor Rivas) blew for a foul. There was definitely a foul from Miller during this sequence. However, the foul that Rivas was calling was the first instance of contact. He deemed this to be a DOGSO (denial of an obvious goalscoring opportunity) violation, so a red card was produced from his back pocket.

While viewing this play at real-time speed, giving a red card for this foul is not a bad call. However, this is where VAR has to step up to the plate. This image shows Miller still making contact with White as the Vancouver striker enters the box. Per the rules, if the contact continues into the box, the foul becomes a penalty. DOGSO red cards cannot be awarded alongside a penalty kick. The contact may begin outside of the box, but it continues into the box, and therefore a penalty and a yellow card must be awarded here. I think the VAR official, not Rivas, got this call wrong. That’s why VAR exists. The linesman, who is much closer to the play than Rivas is, does not raise his flag for a foul throughout the duration of the play. However, head coach Phil Neville doesn’t believe that the significance of this call is the main takeaway from this sequence.

This sequence begins with Ranko Veselinovic winning a header and Andres Cubas moving to the ball to flick it over Diego Chara. Ryan Gauld is alone in the center circle as the Timbers are kind of all over the place.

The main error occurs here. Four players are occupied with Gauld. Only Miller is focused on White, who has already begun his run into open space the size of the Great Plains. At least one of the two other CBs (McGraw or Surman) should be paying attention to White. My vote goes to McGraw, who admitted in the post-game press conference that his job was to constantly mark White. Just one mental lapse cost the Timbers this game. You can debate about the call, but my gut instinct was that Rivas got it right even though White went down far too easily. VAR has shown me otherwise, but that’s not Rivas’ fault. Who knows what he would have ruled if it was recommended for review. But these types of mental errors led to boatloads of goals last year. Still a work in progress, I guess.

Due to the sudden misfortune of the Timbers (created by themselves) they were now in a near-impossible situation. A loss seemed almost certain, a draw would be comparable to a win under normal circumstances, and a win would be an incredible result. To their credit, the Timbers tried to hold their ground. One of their strongest 2024 performances was the second half against LAFC when Maxime Crepeau got sent off. However, all it takes is one mistake. And that inevitable mistake struck in the 24th minute.

Based on the angle of Crepeau’s body, I think he’s trying to launch this pass to Jimer Fory, who is just within the frame on the right side.

He was absolutely not trying to pass it to Vancouver winger Jayden Nelson. But that’s what happened anyway. Suddenly, Vancouver has a 3v2 with Nelson, White and Gauld up against Portland’s two center backs. It resulted in a goal after Gauld was left free and slotted a shot home with a pretty tidy finish. 1-0, 24 minutes gone.

The second goal came in the 32nd minute.

In my de-facto season preview, I listed “stop conceding shots from distance” as something the Timbers needed to work on. Well, it’s game one of 2025, and here’s the Timbers conceding a shot from distance! However, I introduced the “banger” categorization, which excuses some long-distance concessions due to credit for the attackers rather than defensive error. I think Pedro Vite’s goal falls into the “banger” category, especially with Fory actually making an effort to stop the shot. It’s unfortunate, but it happens sometimes.

Portland took the 2-0 deficit into halftime, and were outshot 15-0 in the first half. David da Costa made his Timbers debut as a halftime substitute for David Ayala. And for one minute (the 46th/47th), he was the spark the Timbers needed and shifted momentum back into Portland’s hands. He did that by carrying the ball to the right side of the box and crossing it to Kevin Kelsy, whose header (right at Yohei Takaoka) resulted in Portland’s first shot of the night. This momentum held for the first 7 minutes of the second half. And then the dagger happened.

After da Costa’s corner kick was headed away, Diego Chara attempted to control the ball while Vite challenged him. Chara’s touch hit Vite in the hand. That’s clear and obvious, and can be seen on the broadcast. In this exact image, in fact! Vite’s arm is extended away from his body, and I would absolutely call it an unnatural position. However, Rivas, who is staring right at the play, doesn’t blow his whistle. He allows the play to develop.

That touch off of Vite’s hand falls right to Gauld. Interesting.

Gauld, being the player that he is, immediately recognizes the situation and plays a perfect through ball for Nelson. The young Canadian is very fast. Joao Ortiz is the only player that can slow down Nelson.

Despite curving his run, Nelson still outpaces Ortiz. That happens sometimes. Ortiz is a midfielder, and Nelson is a winger. You’d expect Nelson to win the footrace here. So he does. Sam Adekugbe is also very fast, and he’s making a support run. He is a fullback, and his marker Finn Surman is a center back. You’d expect Adekugbe to win the footrace here.

Ortiz is able to slow Nelson just enough in order to knock him off balance. But Adekugbe is still charging along just a step ahead of Surman. That step is all he needs. While falling, Nelson is able to slip the ball across to Adekugbe, who calmly finishes it past Crepeau.

However, the overwhelming concern from Timbers players after the ball hits the back of the net is about the handball in buildup which directly affected the play. Rivas may have waived it off in real time to allow the play to develop, but Rivas awarded the goal! Does VAR have anything to say about the handball? No, they do not. That’s a far worse call than what happened with Kamal Miller. And it completely destroyed any hope for the Timbers to get back in the game. 3-0, 53rd minute.

The 4th goal is the most defensible. I can’t fault any of the positioning or decisions. Nelson just had the Timbers’ number today, and he was able to carry the ball from the halfway line to the box and finish past Crepeau. But the Timbers, even though they were down a man, were headed towards the exact same scoreline from October. Something needed to change.

How about Zac McGraw deciding to nutmeg a Whitecaps defender, launching a long ball intended for da Costa that got intercepted by Tristan Blackmon, and fell to Kevin Kelsy, whose deflected shot trickled in front of the net for Antony to fall upon and blast home? McGraw’s nutmeg was the only true bit of skill in an entire sequence that led to the Timbers systematically bundling the ball into the goal through sheer force of will. In some ways, it was inspiring. But it only made the scoreline 4-1. And that’s how the game ended. After beating Colorado 4-1 to open 2024, they lost 4-1 to Vancouver in the 2025 season opener. An odd bit of symmetry, but one that accurately reflected the game.

Only one stat matters in this game: despite being down to 10 men for the majority of the game, the Timbers did not concede a set piece goal. Back in October, they conceded 3 of them to the Whitecaps. That’s progress and the biggest silver lining from today. To the player ratings we go!

Player Ratings

Maxime Crepeau: 5.5

Based on some of the saves he made, you could argue that Crepeau might have deserved higher than a 5.5. I’d give him a 7.5 based on some of those stops. However, the turnover that led to Vancouver’s first goal was so utterly catastrophic that it completely sunk his rating.

Antony: 7

This was a weird game, and I think Antony was the poster child of it. After starting at right wing-back, Miller’s dismissal forced the Brazilian to slot in at right back. Then, after Felipe Mora got subbed off in the 37th minute, Antony played as a de-facto striker up top alongside Kelsy. This allowed the Timbers to have a speedy outlet up top, which they didn’t have prior to the dismissal. He did get the lone Portland goal, making this the second consecutive season opener in which he found the back of the net. Good for him! He hustled hard throughout the game, and a 7 feels right.

Finn Surman: 6.5

Surman played with fire and vigor, but also made a couple of youthful mistakes. Either way, he wasn’t fully fit enough to play the full 90, so he was subbed out in the 66th minute. Not the first home start he probably wanted, but a solid one nonetheless.

Zac McGraw: 6

On balance of play, McGraw deserved a 7 like Surman. But I attribute the crucial mistake of not tracking White on the sequence that led to Miller’s red card on McGraw’s shoulders. Unfortunate, but a part of the game.

Kamal Miller: N/A

He had to make a play. I think they got the call wrong. I don’t have an issue with it. When it rains, it pours.

Jimer Fory: 7

Fory impressed in his Timbers debut. His presence allowed the Timbers to be more competent on set pieces while he looked bright early on when it was 11v11. I don’t think he’s the strongest dribbler, but I’m interested in seeing more of him. He’s going to get better.

Diego Chara: 6.5

I thought that Chara was the only midfielder that had a competent understanding of his role. More fouls, more tackles, and no yellow cards. Unspectacular, but solid. This was appearance number 400 for him. During his last landmark game, he got sent off. Sigh. He deserves everything good in this world.

David Ayala: 6

I don’t think Ayala was fully up to speed today. He was more active getting forward in defense than attack. The only through-ball targets he had were on the wings. Taking him off at halftime might have been controversial, but they needed to remove one of the midfielders in order to get da Costa on the pitch.

David da Costa: 7

Off-ball, on-ball, didn’t matter. Da Costa was compelling whenever he was involved. It was an encouraging cameo into the rest of the season, and he cannot be benched while fully fit ever again. The Timbers did not have a single playmaker on the field, which led to a grand total of 0 shots in the first half. With da Costa on the pitch in the second half, the Timbers finished down 2-1 despite playing a man down the entire time. Vancouver may have outshot them 8-6, but da Costa’s presence kept pushing them forward. In a team that’s desperate for creativity, the Portuguese attacker needs to be the first name on the teamsheet.

Joao Ortiz: 6

Not the most encouraging debut for Ortiz, and I was expecting him to be the link between the midfield and the attack. That’s a lot of pressure for him. Judging him based on his footraces with Jayden Nelson is unfair. He will only get better as he develops more chemistry with his teammates.

Felipe Mora: 6

Today marked two special occasions for the Chilean. It was his first opening day start since 2021 and it was his 100th appearance for the Timbers. Subbing him off in the 37th minute for Eric Miller was probably not how he wanted today to go. Before leaving the pitch, he tried to hold up the ball under heavy pressure but was getting little support. Unfortunate.

Kevin Kelsy: 6.5

This was the toughest rating to come up with. Kelsy offered very little going forward but did a good job on set pieces. Not the Timbers debut he wanted. He’ll only get better though.

Final Whistle

You could call it “cope,” but a fully healthy Timbers with 11 men lost 5-0 to the Vancouver Whitecaps in their last competitive match before tonight. While they did lose again today, and it was compounded by another embarrassing scoreline, there’s only one way to go from here. Every single new acquisition made their team debut today. They were missing some serious offensive firepower, and the Timbers needed to offer more of a threat going forward in order to stand a chance. Miller’s red card changed everything. The focus ahead remains the defense and cutting out the errors. Austin FC comes to town next week, another team who beat the Timbers at the end of 2024. This is the beginning of Year 2 of the Grabavoy-Neville braintrust. They will have to recover. Otherwise, regardless of the circumstances that led to this result, the outside noise will get louder and louder. It’s a fact of being in this industry. Next week’s result will speak volumes.

After the final whistle, the sun finally began to peak through the clouds. Rain poured down on the Providence Park turf for hours before kickoff. A result like this should only intensify the locker room. Despite facing an atmospheric river of their own today, it’s up to them to force the sun to break through the clouds. The climb continues.

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