Wild Card: Portland Timbers-Real Salt Lake Preview (10/22)
They did not want to be here. Throughout the course of the season, the Portland Timbers were able to maintain a top-7 place in the Western Conference. That all changed on Decision Day. A 4-0 loss to San Diego, coupled with a Dallas victory in Vancouver, dropped the Timbers below 7th place for the first time since March 22nd. All year, they’ve tried their hardest to avoid the Wild Card Game. They were unable to avoid it. Their opponents, Real Salt Lake, are thrilled to be in this position.
The RSL Report
The Monarchs’ 1-0 victory in Portland on July 16th pushed them into 10th place in the Western Conference. As they sat one point behind 9th-placed San Jose, RSL’s braintrust decided that a playoff spot was achievable. In order to keep their 4-year playoff streak alive, they needed to add reinforcements in the summer.
The summer of 2024 was transformational for RSL. But not in a good way. Carlos Andres Gomez, their best player, was sold to Rennes. Two players were brought in to replace him: Dominik Marczuk and Lachlan Brook. Neither of them are currently with RSL. Marczuk was loaned to FC Cincinnati in a complicated deal that saw DeAndre Yedlin arrive on a permanent transfer. It’s a deal that worked for both parties: clearing cap space on Cincy’s end while providing the Monarchs with a proven veteran defender at a position of need. In addition to Brook and Marczuk, defender Bode Hidalgo (traded to Montreal) and forward Axel Kei (waived) permanently left the club. Midfielder Nelson Palacio was loaned to FC Zurich in Switzerland.
Those departures were needed to clear the way for two new forwards. Victor Olatunji joined from Czech outfit Sparta Prague on a TAM deal. The 6’4” Nigerian striker has 4 goals in 8 games, although 2 of them were scored in Saturday’s 2-2 draw with St. Louis. Rwan Cruz is another tall striker (6’2”) who arrived on loan from Botafogo. He’s taking up a DP spot and his loan ends at the end of June 2026. Olatunji has been a pretty natural fit, but Cruz is goal-less in 10 games. He had a chance to score with a penalty kick in a 4-1 home defeat to LAFC (not to be confused with the 4-1 away defeat to LAFC that occurred four days after the first game) but his effort hit the post.
These were the signings that RSL’s front office trusted to push them over the playoff line. The desired effect was achieved, but the new players weren’t as big of a help as the decision-makers would’ve liked. Like the Timbers, RSL were able to succeed due to the failure of teams around them. However, they didn’t do themselves any favors either.
Real Salt Lake (12-5-17, 41 points, 9W/19S) is a very simple team on paper. The striker is supported by three creative attackers, who play in front of a combative double pivot. Those creative players are Diego Luna (9g/3a), Diogo Goncalves (4g/4a), and Zavier Gozo (4g/3a). Those aren’t very impressive numbers, and it’s probably due to the Monarchs missing a lot of chances. They underperformed their xG by 6.6 and had the lowest non-penalty xG per shot (0.08) in the entire league. American Soccer Analysis’ Expected Points stat put RSL at 41.66 points. With 41 points, they basically matched it. How can an underperforming attacking team match their expected points tally?
By overperforming on the back end! Rafael Cabral has the 12th-highest PSxG differential in the league. In addition, he’s saved 4 penalties. That’s the most in the league; 1 more than James Pantemis. During Leagues Cup, RSL beat Club America in penalties. Cabral saved 3/4 kicks in that shootout.
RSL is a solid team with a good foundation. If they can put the ball in the back of the net when it matters, they could make some noise in the playoffs. But they have to get past the Timbers first.
RSL Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
None of these players are starters.
They have to play their best lineup. And this is what it looks like. The double pivot of Ojeda and Eneli has been outstanding since it was formed last year. Pablo Ruiz is the most likely candidate to replace either Ojeda or Eneli, but I doubt that he starts. Yedlin was acquired to be the starting right back. Katranis was suspended for the St. Louis game and should be back in the lineup on full rest. This is the best front four that Pablo Mastroeni can field. He’s tried two-striker looks this season, but this formation gets his best players in their best spots to succeed.
The Timbers Report
The Portland Timbers (11-11-12, 44 points, 8W/17S) are back in the Wild Card Game. Last year they finished with 47 points (12-11-11) but were the 9th-placed team in the West. Due to BC Place’s expectation that the Vancouver Whitecaps would not make the MLS playoffs, the Timbers had a golden opportunity to host the Wild Card Game despite being a lower seed. They were favored. And they got demolished. No Timbers team had ever been humiliated like that in a playoff game. The worst part? It happened at Providence Park.
The Fall of a Fortress
The sportsbooks still have faith in the Portland Timbers. They’re a slight favorite in tomorrow’s single-elimination playoff game. However, most people are picking RSL to advance to the next round. This would’ve been unheard of a few years ago. But in Year 50, the Timbers have completely lost the home-field advantage that once made Providence Park a dreaded destination for opposing teams.
The 2025 Timbers ended the regular season with a 7-6-4 record at home. That’s not too bad on the surface, but it’s far below their 2024 home record (9-5-3). That 2025 mark ranks 17th in MLS. But it’s even uglier when goal differential enters the picture.
Portland finished 2025 with a -1 goal differential at home. It’s the first time in their MLS history that they’ve finished with a negative goal differential at Providence Park. Do you want to know what their largest margin of victory at Providence Park was this year? It was 2, and they did it ONCE (Houston on March 30th). The other 6 home wins were decided by one goal. Oddly enough, the Timbers had more wins by multiple goals on the road than they did at home. They had the same amount of 3-goal losses at home than they did on the road, with the season’s largest margin of defeat belonging to Saturday’s loss against San Diego. That marks the second year in a row that the Timbers suffered their worst defeat of the season (by margin of defeat) at Providence Park.
Earlier in the season, I got scientific. I looked at two stats (field tilt and total shots) to try and determine whether or not the Timbers were better suited to home games or away games. When the Timbers were at their best in the early months of the season, they were better on the road. Being a “road team” fit their game model better than playing at home. On the road, they had space to attack. But at home, teams would drop their line of confrontation and deprive the Timbers of that space that they needed (and were unable to create for themselves).
Next year will be the 100th season for Providence Park. They’ve never been this futile at home before. Tomorrow is a statement game for several reasons. Yeah, it’s a playoff game, and you don’t want to lose a playoff game. But they have a reputation to uphold. Providence Park’s “fortress” status is in serious jeopardy. Anything besides a win in regulation would be unacceptable, even with extra considerations for this putrid recent form.
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Two of the Summer Three will not play in tomorrow’s playoff game. That’s brutal. Surman’s absence for the San Diego game was “precautionary” and Neville gave his status as “50/50” on Monday. Antony was not participating in on-field training sessions.
Surman was a partial participant in training, so I think he gets the nod in the most important game of the year. Neville confirmed that Chara would start on Monday. It won’t be his 400th career start because that stat only applies to regular-season games. I don’t expect an Antony start given his absence from the practice field. This allows Velde to move to the right and Lassiter to make his first start since August 16th. I think that the Costa Rican is the most natural replacement for Rojas given his set-piece delivery. However, he does add a bit of field-stretching that the Timbers would (hypothetically) be missing with Antony off the pitch. Pantemis should be starting in net purely for one reason: penalty kicks. If the game ends in a tie after 90 minutes, a shootout will commence. He desperately needs a bounce-back after that mistake-filled outing against San Diego. Kelsy gets the nod over Felipe Mora again. Despite embarking on a goal drought of his own, he’s firmly focused on helping the team. “Coach Neville asks a lot of me, especially in training. All I can do is try to be flexible……..The most important thing now is to make sure that we make it into the first round.”
Given the injury report, I think this is the most likely lineup for tomorrow. This team was built for the 4-2-3-1, and their best chance of winning is in that formation.
Tactical Preview
Stopping the Flow
RSL’s fluid second line of Luna, Goncalves, and Gozo will routinely switch positions. How will the Timbers be able to track them? I think it’s a matter of defending the zones and not the players. Each holding midfielder can provide direct pressure, but the backline can protect the zones instead of focusing on each individual player. Portland’s backline has been solid this year because they’ve been able to defend the box from crosses. Their flaws come from losing markers and stepping out of line. Backline solidity is the key.
The Entry Pass
The Timbers struggle with the entry ball more than any other team in the league. Juan Mosquera’s return to the starting lineup should be able to help with that. As the width-provider on the right, he allows the right-winger to play in the channels. Phil Neville calls this the “pocket.” Da Costa’s excellent first couple of months came when he played in the left pocket with a winger to support. In the back three, that winger was actually a wingback. The right-sided pocket player should be Velde. I like the idea of Portland’s best dribblers being utilized in the channels rather than out wide. But none of that means anything if they can’t get the entry ball down.
Portland’s go-to entry pass is usually a through ball from one of the pocket players to the width-provider. Both channel-occupiers crash the box along with the striker to get on the end of the resulting cross. This isn’t a bad way to operate an attack. These scenarios create the most replicable chances. But there’s one missing wrinkle: the central through-ball.
Instead of getting the ball out wide, the width-providers can make diagonal runs towards the center of the box. If timed correctly, the resulting pass can create a big chance. That’s important because the Timbers can create a big chance with one pass instead of two.
There are many times when the Timbers take an extra pass or touch to complicate a play instead of opting for the more direct route. Since this team is struggling to create and score goals, they have to be direct. Eliminating the extra pass and being direct with their entry balls is a good way to start.
Matchday Info
Announcer Analytics
*Broadcaster assignments have not been released at the time of publishing. Blame Apple for not releasing these until the last possible second.*
Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: FREE on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST
Referee Report
Guido Gonzales Jr’s 2025 stats: 22 games, 23.45 fouls/game, 0.23 penalties/game, 4.14 yellows/game, 0.09 reds/game
Last Timbers game officiated: August 6, 2025 vs. Club America 1-1 D
Prior to the Club America game, Gonzales Jr’s last league game that involved the Timbers was the 3-3 draw against LAFC back on April 19th. That match famously featured a VAR review that went to the monitor two minutes after the foul occurred. The Club America game was notable for the repeated homophobic chants that echoed through Q2 Stadium, the use of lasers in the penalty shootout, and a dubious second yellow card on Jimer Fory. Somehow Gonzales Jr was nominated for Referee of the Year.
Series History
Historical record: 15-12-14, +7 goal differential
Home record: 9-7-5, +9 goal differential
Playoff record: 1-0-3, -2 goal differential
Home playoff record: 1-0-1, +1 goal differential
Current streak: 2 winless
Current home streak: 1 loss
This is Portland’s first playoff game against RSL since the 2021 Western Conference Final. That game was the only time that the Timbers have been able to advance from this matchup in 3 total tries (2013 WCF and 2019 First Round).
Final Whistle
Tomorrow is the season opener for the Portland Trail Blazers as the Minnesota Timberwolves come to town. Many people will look at that game and decide to pay a lower price to watch Yang Hansen instead of the Timbers’ playoff game. Both of these games occurring at the same time was a completely avoidable scenario. But the Timbers fell into the Wild Card, and they made a pretty clear case for why people should pick the Blazers instead of them on Saturday night. However, I believe that the Timbers will win tomorrow. The “spark” that Phil Neville has been searching for arrived on Monday morning.
The Portland Timbers have won 1 MLS Cup and won the Western Conference 3 times. Each of those postseasons were characterized by the improbable. This club is the exact opposite of optimized. Neville is the head coach of this team. Of course he’s looking for a “spark.” Those sparks carry them to greater heights than solid underlying numbers or a defined system. It’s been that way since they joined MLS.
2015 featured four “sparks.” The first was Maxi Urruti’s last-minute equalizer against SKC in the Wild Card. Prior to Felipe Mora’s immortal MLS Cup strike, it was the most clutch goal in Timbers history. Minutes later, Saad Abdul-Salaam’s penalty kick hit both posts and bounced out of the goal. In the first leg of the Western Conference Final, Dairon Asprilla scored (in my opinion) the best goal in Timbers history to give Portland a crucial 2-0 lead against FC Dallas. The fourth “spark” occurred 27 seconds into the final. I don’t need to explain it.
The 2018 run had three “sparks.” Diego Valeri’s free-kick in Dallas put the Timbers ahead in the Wild Card Game. Finding the “spark” from the Seattle series is tough. Was it Sebastian Blanco’s grass-cutter? Asprilla’s header? Actually, it was neither. For the first time, the “spark” occurred when the ball wasn’t in play. After the final whistle blew in extra time, the Timbers were blissfully unaware of how away goals worked, They wrongfully assumed that the game was over and began celebrating prior to the penalty shootout. It absolutely counts as a “spark.” The final spark was Blanco’s worldie against SKC in the second leg of the Conference Final. But they ran into a juggernaut of an Atlanta team and lost a game that they weren’t expected to win. The run was the important part.
Five “sparks” occurred in 2021. Blanco unleashed another worldie against Minnesota in the first round. Larrys Mabiala scored for the second consecutive game from a set piece in Colorado; a team that led the league in set-piece goals. David Ochoa is responsible for both “sparks” in the Conference Final. An inadvertent assist to Mora put the Timbers on the board, before his backside assisted Santiago Moreno to double the lead. The final “spark” is the most obvious. Unfortunately, it was the only one they couldn’t capitalize on.
Calling the event I’m about to describe as a “spark” is pretty disingenuous. Those sparks have to occur on the field, but this event offers a parallel to one that happened earlier in the year.
Prior to the 4-1 loss in San Jose that officially began Portland’s fall down the table, Neville sat at the podium inside the Timbers’ training facility in Beaverton. It was a relatively routine pre-match press conference. But then something odd happened. While inside, Neville got stung by a bee.
Unlike the humble fly or beetle, bees do not venture inside. However, this unfortunate creature found himself in an unfamiliar environment and made a beeline for the head coach. After getting stung, Neville stomped on the pollinator and continued answering the question at hand.
What followed was the Timbers’ first major hiccup since a 2-0 loss in Nashville. This bee found himself at the wrong place at the wrong time. On Monday morning, history almost repeated itself.
Another bee made a run at Neville during the media scrum. He was able to avoid the sting, but this bee was not going to waste its anger. I continued asking my question before a helpful member of the team’s communications staff alerted me to the bee circling my legs. After a quick backhand, the bee was dispatched. The rest of the presser continued and ended. Right after the conclusion, I realized the enormity of the event.
Neville avoided the sting, and I reflexively slapped a bee. That’s the normal way to look at it. But I’m not normal, and I understood what had just happened. As a former resident of Salt Lake City, I’m well aware of the state of Utah. The state bird is the seagull despite being completely landlocked. The Salt Lake Valley’s air quality significantly worsens in the winter as an atmospheric phenomenon called “inversion” traps the cold and polluted air in the valley while the warm and clean air rises into the mountains. But the most fascinating part of this story involves Utah’s nickname: the Beehive State.
Yeah, I don’t get it either. But this moniker lent its name to Salt Lake City’s Triple-A baseball team. I despise almost everything about Salt Lake City. Except for the Bees. Last year, the Timbers’ trip to SLC perfectly coincided with the final game at Smith’s Ballpark; the home of the Bees since 1994. It was a perfect venue at a perfect location, and home to several of my favorite memories when I lived there. I always made it a point to go to a Bees game if they were in town when I was visiting. It felt poetic that they would be playing their final game at Smith’s when I was in town for the Timbers.
The Bees lost. But that wasn’t the point. Baseball, more often than not, is about an afternoon at the ballpark rather than the final score. 13,450 people filled the stadium to watch the Bees say goodbye to their home. A new ballpark was being built in Daybreak; one of the suburbs located in the southwestern corner of the valley. This was the polar opposite location of the home that they were farewelling. After one year at their new boondoggle of a ballpark, their attendance has gone down. People streamed out of Smith’s on that sunny September afternoon, with multiple people saying that they’d never go to a Bees game again. I was probably the only out-of-towner in the stadium, yet I cheered louder than most people in my section. They hadn’t grasped what they were losing. But I did.
I’ll never forgive the Bees organization for moving to Daybreak. I do not live in Salt Lake City anymore, but part of my heart lies at Smith’s Ballpark. When I swatted that bee away, I thought of the decisions that led to the final out at Smith’s. That’s the personal motivation. I do not like Salt Lake City, and I do not like RSL. But how can that be classified as a “spark?”
Neville was able to avoid the sting. Although getting stung prior to the San Jose loss was taken with a pinch of salt, it was an omen of things to come. No metaphor will ever be clearer than avoiding a bee sting prior to a game against a Salt Lake team. They’re going to win tomorrow. None of the actual soccer has been making sense, but the “spark” has come. A good performance and a win can instantly change the toxic vibes around the fanbase and the lack of confidence in the locker room. The playoffs are here. This is what they’ve been waiting for all season. It has to start now. The voyage begins.
