Wild Card: Vancouver vs (at?) Portland Preview (10/23)

The regular season is over. The postseason has begun. For the first time since 2021, the Portland Timbers have qualified for the postseason. Not the playoffs, yet. There is one game remaining for the Timbers to officially return to the playoffs. In order to get there, the Vancouver Whitecaps must be conquered. 

The Whitecaps Report

Four-and-a-half weeks ago, the Vancouver Whitecaps were 5 points back of 2nd place with a game in hand. They drew 1-1 with Houston and lost 4-2 to the Galaxy, but they were nowhere close to dead in the water. Right before they hosted the Portland Timbers for the second time, they lifted their 3rd straight Canadian Championship. This could have provided some momentum for the final stretch. It could have provided some momentum for their next match against the Portland Timbers with the Cascadia Cup at stake and the Whitecaps firmly in the drivers’ seat to retain the regional title for the second consecutive year. So what did Vanni Sartini’s squad do?

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They stumbled and collapsed. After taking an early lead against Portland, an equalizer arrived before halftime. The Whitecaps were unable to find the winner. Well, that isn’t an optimal result, but they could still clinch Cascadia with a victory four days later against the Seattle Sounders. Brian Schmetzer’s team thumped Vancouver 3-0 in their own building. Because of that result, the Whitecaps went from controlling their Cascadia destiny to throwing it away. Their representatives would travel to Seattle on Decision Day knowing that they would have to hand the Cup to the Emerald City Supporters or the Timbers Army. Tough scene. But their 3rd home game of the week was immense. Minnesota was coming to town and the Whitecaps needed to win to escape the dreaded Wild Card Game. The Loons scored a penalty, a Minnesota own goal was overturned by VAR, and Vancouver lost at home for the second game in a row. But their game in hand against LAFC was at home, and the Whitecaps surely wanted revenge against the team that eliminated them from last year’s playoffs. A stoppage-time winner from Ilie Sanchez consigned Vancouver to their 3rd straight defeat. They could still clinch home-field advantage in the Wild Card Game or climb to the 7th seed on Decision Day. They needed Minnesota to drop points at home against St. Louis and beat RSL at Rio Tinto. However, one day before their regular season finale, the worst possible news arrived on their doorsteps.

Major League Soccer has a venue problem. 7 of their 29 teams share their stadiums with another team from another sport. BC Place, the home of the Vancouver Whitecaps, is also the home of the BC Lions; Vancouver’s CFL team. When the 2024 FIM World Supercross Championship was scheduled at BC Place on October 26th, it increased the potential heartbreak for Whitecaps fans. That date occurs during the first round of the playoffs. The decision-makers, who didn’t think that Vancouver would have home-field advantage in the playoffs, decided that it was perfectly fine to schedule a dirt bike race during a potential playoff date. However, they didn’t even factor in the time it would take to turn a soccer field into a mud pit for the bikes to race on. Because of this logistical failure, and the league turning down other potential stadiums in British Columbia for the Whitecaps to play in, the Vancouver Whitecaps could not host the Wild Card Game. Entering Decision Day, they needed to climb into 7th place to avoid total embarrassment. 

Don Garber has famously called out the quality of lower-league fields around the United States. This hasn’t stopped him from allowing NYCFC to use baseball stadiums for the entirety of their existence. The league did not have to force Vancouver to travel on the road for a playoff game that they earned the right to host. In their first competitive match of 2024, Vancouver hosted Tigres in the CONCACAF Champions’ Cup. BC Place was unavailable, so the game was played in Starlight Stadium on Vancouver Island. Tigres fans traveled. Whitecaps fans “traveled.” It worked out. That same stadium could have hosted this Wild Card Game. Garber, who cares so much about field quality, said no. Pathetic.

With the possibility of home-field advantage out of their hands entering Decision Day, the Whitecaps lost 2-1 to RSL after taking an early lead and missing a penalty. It was their 4th straight loss in MLS play, and extended their winless streak to 7 games.

During this 7-game stretch, the Whitecaps faced every playoff team except the Colorado Rapids. 4 of them were at home. Vancouver collected a total of 1 point from their last 4 home games. That’s what sunk them. They only scored 3 goals in their final 5 games of the season. After lifting the Canadian Championship, they fell off a cliff. New signing Stuart Armstrong, expected to be a difference-maker in the attack, has 1g/0a in 124 minutes. He has only made one start for his new team since making his debut in early September. Ryan Gauld has been hurt, but has 1g/1a in his past 5 games. Their top players aren’t carrying the load. They went from having a shot at the top 4 to going on the road as the 8 seed in the Wild Card Game.

Only one name is on Vancouver’s injury report. Jeevan Badwal, who hasn’t made a single first-team appearance this season, is out with a knee injury. Several key players, including Gauld, Yohei Takaoka, Ali Ahmed, and Andres Cubas came off the bench against RSL last weekend.

Full strength. First choice. Vanni Sartini has no other option. This game determines how successful their season will be. They cannot afford to rotate. 

The Timbers Report

Portland’s final games of the regular season mirror Vancouver’s. Like the Whitecaps, the Timbers are entering this game with a multi-game winless streak and an attack that is having trouble finding the net. Last week, I talked about how Portland’s defensive numbers aren’t as bad as they look on paper. After spending the entire year fretting about how bad the Timbers’ defense was, the national media is beginning to change their tune. It only took until Decision Day for them to see what was right in front of them. Now their attack is struggling, and it needs to click tomorrow.

Portland has been overperforming their expected goals all season. Sometimes that overperformance can be a bit fraudulent, like it was with St. Louis last year and Austin in 2022. Where does the Timbers’ attack fall on that scale?

These are all of the teams in MLS who are overperforming their non-penalty expected goals by at least 5. Portland has the 8th-most cumulative npxG in the entire league. That’s a very good number. The attack is able to create chances, and isn’t fraudulent based on that metric. So what is accounting for Portland’s elite finishing?

The answer lies with both of Portland’s DPs: Evander and Jonathan Rodriguez. Together, both of them have scored 7.8 more goals than expected. That is 87% of Portland’s overperformance, and it has been accomplished by two players. Antony has been raked over the coals for some of his poor finishing this season, but he’s third on the team in npxG/goals scored differential. I doubt that Phil Neville is poring over FBRef every day, but his comments after the Seattle game fall in line with the data. The head coach spoke about how important Evander and Rodriguez would be for this playoff run. During this 5-game winless streak, Rodriguez scored twice from a total of 1.9 npxG. Evander has 1 goal from 0.7 npxG. Both of those players are performing on average. Evander’s lone goal during this stretch was the free-kick in Salt Lake City. So if they have been performing as expected, is there a culprit for Portland’s relative drought in front of the net?

Felipe Mora hasn’t scored a goal since September 18th against the LA Galaxy. Coincidentally, that was the Timbers’ most recent win. During this 5-game stretch, Mora has accumulated a total of 2.1 npxG. Zero goals. He is Portland’s X-Factor for the Wild Card Game. He needs to score a goal. He will have chances against Vancouver. Time for him to break his scoreless drought.

Santiago Moreno is the only name on Portland’s injury report. During Tuesday’s press conference, Neville said that Moreno is a “doubt.” However, he was a full participant in Tuesday’s open training session. Kamal Miller is back from yellow card suspension, while Miguel Araujo and Zac McGraw are both available for selection.

There is currently a competition for starts at 3 positions: GK, CB, and DM. Let’s go through all of them. Crepeau was signed in the offseason for games just like this one. If he doesn’t start tomorrow, I’ll be very surprised. Kamal Miller is fully rested for this game, and his partnership with Dario Zuparic is the best one that the Timbers can offer. However, Miguel Araujo’s excellent international break could vault him ahead of the Canadian. Ayala was excellent coming off the bench against Seattle and should return to the lineup alongside Chara. The rest of the lineup picks itself, unless Neville is bluffing about Moreno’s availability. 

Tactical Preview

The Wide Areas

Before the September 28th clash at BC Place, I highlighted how important it was for the Timbers to defend the wide areas, especially early on. They promptly conceded 3 minutes into the game after a cross from the right side of the field found Brian White in the penalty area. Wide defending doesn’t just apply to the fullbacks either. Both of Portland’s starting wingers will have to pull their weight defensively. 

Those wingers will also have to attack from the wide areas. Evander hates the Vancouver Whitecaps more than any other opponent, totaling 4g/2a against them in 5 appearances. If Evander can dictate play from the center of the park, the wingers need to be ready to exploit any space left behind on a counter or in possession. Whoever controls the wide areas will win the game.

Mentality

Diego Chara spoke after Tuesday’s open training session and talked about his message to the team. “Win and play to win.” Chara has been here for all of this. No player is more qualified to lead this team into the 2024 postseason. If the Timbers can trust themselves, relax around the box, and use the energy of the supporters, they will win this game. It is also worth noting the rules of tomorrow’s contest. If the game is tied after regulation, it will go straight to penalties. If the Timbers haven’t found a breakthrough by the 80th minute, the Whitecaps could bunker to force a shootout. In order to combat any potential Vancouver nonsense, the Timbers have to begin this game on the front foot and score the first goal. Portland is incredibly lucky to be hosting this game. After the Seattle game, Dario Zuparic said that he didn’t believe that the team deserved to host this game. Neville took it a step further on Tuesday, proclaiming that “God is a Timbers fan,” during his pre-match press conference. There’s definitely a joke in that statement, but the stars have aligned for the Timbers to host this. They have to take full advantage of it. 

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Max Bretos and Lori Lindsey will be the English commentators. The Spanish broadcast will be led by Francisco X. Rivera and Martin Zuniga. Since it is a home game, the local radio call from 750 the Game will also be an option on Apple TV. This game is NOT FREE on Apple TV, and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM PST. 

Referee Report

Rubiel Vazquez will be the center referee for tomorrow’s match. He officiated Portland’s 2-2 draw against LAFC earlier this year. That was the game where Maxime Crepeau was sent off for DOGSO.

2024 Regular Season Stats: 21.06 fouls/game, 0.28 penalties/game, 3.39 yellows/game, 0.11 reds/game

Series History

Portland is still Vancouver’s big brother with a record of 18-9-12 across all competitions. Their only playoff meeting was in 2015 (interesting). The first leg ended in a 0-0 draw at Providence Park before the Timbers knocked them out with the original Dos Eh Cero at BC Place behind goals from Fanendo Adi and Diego Chara. Their record against Vancouver at Providence Park is 10-5-4. HOWEVER, because of the oddities surrounding tomorrow’s match, that number is incorrect.

This is not the first time that Vancouver has hosted the Portland Timbers at Providence Park. During the 2020 season, the Whitecaps had to remain in the United States due to COVID protocols, and they played a home game in Portland against the Timbers on September 27, 2020. The Timbers won that game 1-0 after Felipe Mora’s 5th minute strike proved too much for the Fredy Montero-led Whitecaps to overcome. Therefore, the Portland Timbers are 1-0-0 when they visit the Vancouver Whitecaps at Providence Park. 

Table Time

Nothing matters aside from this soccer game. The winner advances to the First Round of the playoffs and a Best-of-3 series against LAFC. The Portland Timbers technically are not a playoff team. This is a play-in game for the privilege of going to the playoffs. The Timbers didn’t beat the Seattle Sounders on Saturday, but they left the stinky confines of the Emerald City with the Cascadia Cup. Now the focus turns back to the larger picture of MLS. They have to win this game. On the 8th day of Creation, the Lord created dirt bikes. Because of God’s insistence to build a machine small enough to travel on any surface while going at high speed, the Portland Timbers are hosting a playoff game as the 9th seed. This is a golden opportunity. They have to take advantage.

Win the game. Melt the Whitecaps. The quest for the second star begins now.

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