Austin FC-Portland Timbers Preview (11/7/26)

The Portland Timbers have done it. After spending the majority of the fall slipping further and further away from a playoff spot, an outstanding 9-point week has pushed them above the red line as the bells were beginning to ring. But their main reward for those exploits has now been revealed as Decision Day arrives: the Portland Timbers are entering the final game of the season in full control of their playoff destiny. All they need is one more win to extend their season. And they’ll have to get that win in a place where they’re unbeaten in their last 4 games: Austin, Blexas.

The Broccoli Report

Since Oleksandr Svatok’s incredibly stupid game-winner hit the back of the net to give Austin a 2-1 win in Portland back on August 29th, the Broccolis suddenly had some momentum to mount an improbable playoff charge. 

The stoppage-time goal appeared again one week later when they were back home against San Jose. Guilherme Biro was the scorer, and it secured a 1-1 home draw. Their next late equalizer would come in their next game three days later against Colorado, but it was Facundo Torres who smashed it home in the 79th minute to secure another 1-1 home draw. 

With a 3-game unbeaten run in their back pocket, the Broccolis traveled to Vancouver and gutted out a 2-1 win. Veteran striker Christian Ramirez scored both of Austin’s goals as a late-season run now seemed possible. They parked the bus again in Dallas on September 19th and took a scoreless draw back home to a date with San Diego. Los Plasticos took a 3-0 lead by scoring thrice in the first 20 minutes after halftime, but the Broccolis ended San Diego’s season by scoring 3 goals in a 14-minute span to tie the game 3-3. Their unbeaten run stretched to six. As the international break commenced, they were 4 points back of 9th place with 7 games remaining.

And then they returned home from said international break for a rematch of last year’s Open Cup Final against Nashville. The Coyotes won that trophy in 2025, and spent the 2026 meeting slapping Austin silly to the tune of a 4-1 defeat. A 3-1 road loss to LAFC and Vancouver’s revenge (a 2-1 Austin loss) gave the Broccolis three consecutive losses directly after a 6-game unbeaten streak. They popped up to beat SKC on the road by a 2-1 scoreline on October 24th, but that was their last gasp. A 2-1 home loss to RSL and a 4-1 drubbing in Carson formally ended Austin’s season. Technically, the RSL loss was the season-killer. They rotated heavily in Carson, which made that loss almost inevitable.

So what is the story of Austin’s (8-10-15, 34 points, 14W/26S) very bad 2026 season? It’s actually one that the record cannot tell you. 2026 Sporting Kansas City has been described as the worst MLS team of all time. They’ve had to go through this season with an incomplete roster and a catastrophic defense. Austin began the season with the full complement of DPs (Brandon Vazquez, Myrto Uzuni, and new arrival Facundo Torres) and a pretty well-stocked roster surrounding them. That roster wasn’t elite by any means, but plenty of people predicted that they’d make the playoffs this year. Not only have the Broccolis missed the playoffs, they’ve managed to author a worse season than SKC in terms of non-penalty xG differential.

The same club that told everyone to break out the laminators after frauding their way to a Western Conference Final in 2022 behind amazing overperformance from Sebastian Driussi and Brad Stuver are at it again. They’ve authored a 2026 that has seen them sink below the team widely considered to be the worst MLS team ever. That’s correct. Austin FC has the worst NPxGD in the entire league.

Part of this is by design. Austin features one of the nastiest low blocks in MLS, which explains why they have the same amount of road wins as they do at home. A new braintrust of CSO Khaled El-Ahmad and head coach Jim Curtin will take over from the minute the final whistle blows tomorrow night. They have a lot of fixing to do. 

ATX Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Three defenders are listed. Bell and Kolmanic are squad players. Applewhite is a summer window loanee from Nashville who never played in a game for Austin.

I’m not paying any attention to the complete squad rotation that occurred in Carson. The Broccolis were already eliminated from the postseason and they were playing their 3rd game of the week. Tomorrow is their season finale, and it’s at home. Players have been playing for their jobs since Curtin was appointed in June. This is their last chance to make a major impression. So I’m expecting the strongest starting lineup with the motivation to try and end Portland’s season. 

The Timbers Report

The stakes are pretty clear for the Portland Timbers (12-7-14, 43 points, 8W/16S). If they win tomorrow, they are in the playoffs. Would you like to see the full list of scenarios? No, you don’t. But here they are anyway.

That’s the graphic that the league tweeted out. It’s completely illegible and gives me a headache. File it under “We’ll take it from here.”

Since that graphic is very stupid, here are the scenarios in a more legible way.

There are 8 ways for the Timbers to make the playoffs. The first bullet point is all that matters.

The Underlying Numbers

Since I already touched on Austin’s league-worst NPxGD, let’s see how Portland’s has shaken out over 33 games.

It’s pretty cool to see the three separate coaching tenures. Phil Neville’s 2026 is represented by a bunch of red before Jack Cassidy’s interim period is marked by the blue upswing. Marti Cifuentes had some difficulty at first before getting back into the blue. Part of that 7-game winless run is blue as well. It's a season of blue waves.

I’d like to compare Portland’s recent form to the rest of the teams around the league. The date range for all of these charts is the same: starting from the most recent international break (the first game counted for the Timbers is the 3-3 draw in Kansas City). Let’s start with the xGD chart first.

You want to be in the top right for all of these charts. The Timbers are in the top right for this one, but they’re in a pack with RSL and Philadelphia. That’s a good place to be!

Now let’s check out the numbers that are even more granular: G+.

Not as good of a showing on this chart, but still a pretty good one!

For our final chart, I wanted to look at recovery differential. The Timbers have been winning the ball back at a higher frequency and in more dangerous areas. So how does their recovery differential compare to expected points per game (xPPG)?

Hello Vancouver. Portland is in another good spot here. They have a positive recovery differential but are slightly below average in xPPG.

The Timbers’ improved recent form is backed by the underlying numbers. They are the only team in the Western Conference carrying a 3-game winning streak into Decision Day. At the very least, optimism for the Sprint Season is warranted. And the current season isn’t over yet.

Tree Questions With Jose Caicedo

I had the opportunity to catch up with Jose Caicedo on Wednesday. Welcome to the final “Tree Questions” of the regular season.

Q: One of the bigger stories around the club right now is Diego Chara’s impending retirement at the end of the sprint season. How has he been able to help you this season and what are your thoughts on him as a teammate and a person?

Caicedo: “As we all know, Diego is an important piece of this club, and an important piece of the group. As I’ve said before, I’ve learned many positive things from him, and ultimately it’ll be a responsibility that I’ll have to take when he’s gone. Preparing is the number one thing. That’s what will be fundamental to be able to do what he does, both for the club and my teammates. Like I said, it’ll be important to be prepared and be able to be ready to take on the responsibility.”

Q: The club is coming off of three straight wins in the same week. But before that, the team was in a rough patch. Do you believe that there was a moment in the rough patch that sparked the turnaround, or do you believe, as Vincent said after the last game, that the team is finally getting the right bounce of the ball?

*Caicedo’s response to this question was delayed by Kamal Miller exiting the gym and loudly asking “ARE YOU DOING AN INTERVIEW? WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?”*

Caicedo: “You know, it could be luck, but I think it’s also the work that we’ve put in. The work that coach Cifuentes has instilled into us; that has been the key. And just him being able to convince us of what it is that he wants us to do. I think if you analyze the training sessions you might be able to tell that the ambience out there is different. We will continue to work that way, just as hard. We know the next game is just as important, and we’ll just keep taking those opportunities.”

Q: What are your thoughts about Kristoffer Velde as a teammate and person?

Caicedo: “Kristoffer is a great player. His positive qualities are always on display. He’s a great person and a great player, and he provides a lot to the team. Like I said, he’s an impressive player with a lot of qualities who is doing things really well right now. He’s taking advantage of the opportunities that he’s receiving. I hope he continues trending upwards as he has, and he continues to take advantage of his opportunities.”

Q: Where is your head at and where is the team’s head at entering this final game of the season on a 3-game winning streak?

Caicedo: “The group is very focused on the upcoming match. Fundamentally, it’s important to think game-by-game. Today, we’re focused on the importance of the game that we have in front of us and we’re going to go step-by-step and game-by-game. That’s why we’ve gotten 3 straight wins.”

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Jimer Fory has been cleared from concussion protocol and Kamal Miller has served his red card suspension. Fully healthy roster for Decision Day aside from the Surgery Squad.

Portland’s last road game was the 3-2 win in St. Louis. I think Cifuentes picked that lineup (which featured Cole Bassett and Joao Ortiz in the midfield) with the intent to not concede first. Given that Portland’s goal in this game is to score first and force Austin to come out of their shell, Izoita should be given another start alongside Da Costa and Caicedo. The front line picks itself. Meanwhile, Fory’s return allows him to slot back in at left back. I thought Waterman has been getting better and better in recent weeks. He should retain his starting spot alongside Surman. I think this is Portland’s strongest starting lineup, especially in a game where they’re going to be expected to be protagonists.

Tactical Preview

The First Goal

Rather than recycle the “first goal” stats that you’re all probably sick of, I’d just like to take a look at the recent post-international break run and see how many times the Timbers have scored first.

SKC (A): YES

LAG (A): NO

COL (H): 0-0

CLT (H): NO

STL (A): YES

HOU (H): YES

That’s a 3-2-1 record since the international break that features 3 games where the Timbers scored first. Pretty good! Austin scored first in the reverse fixture back in August. The quicker Portland scores, the better. Pretty self-explanatory at this point of the season.

Counterpressing

Portland’s counterpress was the most intriguing part of their 3-game winning streak. It was successful against Charlotte, St. Louis, and Houston. Compared to those teams, Austin should be easy pickings.

However, a big feature of the reverse fixture was Austin effortlessly moving the ball through Portland’s midfield due to Caicedo dropping too deep and the 8s pushing too high up. The newfound hybrid pressing structure seems to be a workable solution. One of the 8s (the one on the right) will drop to form a pivot with the 6 when the Timbers don’t have the ball. I don’t see Austin having as easy of a time attacking through central areas as they did in August.

But I don’t think Portland’s high regains will be as effective against the Broccolis’ disciplined low block. However, that depends on how quickly the Timbers are able to score and force Austin to try to chase the game. Houston’s low block was undone when they had to push forward, and it opened space in behind for the Timbers to exploit. So much of tomorrow’s success hinges on Portland’s ability to score first.

Matchday Info

Broadcast Bulletin

English: Mark Rogondino & Heath Pearce

Spanish: Raul Guzman

Home Radio Broadcast from 94.7 KNRK: unavailable on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: Apple TV

Kickoff time: 4:00 PM PST

Referee Report

Victor Rivas’ 2026 stats: 22 games, 23.59 fouls/game, 0.41 penalties/game, 4.59 yellows/game, 0.36 reds/game

Record in Timbers games: data not available

Last Timbers game officiated:  August 6, 2026 vs. Puebla 5-2 W

Jack Cassidy didn’t have much to say about the referees during his interim spell, but he was none too pleased with Rivas in that Puebla game. The Timbers allowed an equalizer when Rivas ordered Alex Bonetig to exit the field for treatment despite no trainers coming on to tend to him. It wasn’t a correct interpretation of the Off-Field Treatment Rule, and the Timbers conceded while down a center back because of it. Not great. Rivas has awarded the most yellow cards and the most red cards this year out of any MLS referee. In addition, he’s awarded the 4th-most penalties per game. He loves to get in the center of the action.

Series History

Historical record: 6-2-4, +2 goal differential

Road record: 3-1-2, -1 goal differential

Current streak: 1 loss (2 winless)

Current road streak: 4 unbeaten

The Timbers haven’t lost in Austin since 2021. That’s a pretty admirable statistic given Portland’s ongoing struggles with road games. It’s their longest active road unbeaten streak against any Western Conference opponent. 

Table Time

It all comes down to this. Here’s what every team is fighting for entering Decision Day.

Austin and San Diego are literally fighting for nothing but pride. San Diego’s opponent, SKC, is trying to avoid the Wooden Spoon. They are the only original MLS club who have never “won” it. Minnesota, RSL, Seattle, Colorado, Portland, and the Galaxy are fighting for the final 3 playoff spots. LAFC is locked into 6th place. More on them in a minute. Houston, St. Louis, and San Jose are fighting for top 4. Dallas has already secured a top 4 spot. Vancouver has already won the conference.

The Eastern Conference playoff teams are already decided. They’re fighting for seeding. So the only major battle on Decision Day is taking place in the West. I’m a firm believer in “que sera, sera” when it comes to the final seeding in the Western Conference. But there’s one outcome I’m hoping for in particular.

LAFC doesn’t have anything to play for. But they have the opportunity to eliminate the Seattle Sounders at Lumen Field. Back in 2024, the Timbers played Seattle on Decision Day with the Cascadia Cup on the line. After Portland’s 1-1 draw secured the regional rivalry trophy, it was time for the time-honored Sounders tradition that they do after the final regular season home game. Players pass out carnations to the fans. While the Timbers were lifting their trophy, Seattle players were celebrating the 50th anniversary of their club by engaging in this tradition.

That was already spectacular enough. But the great innovators have a way to surpass it this year. They could be eliminated on their home pitch and still have to pass out the flowers after the final whistle. This is the only thing that I am desperately rooting for. There is a Seattle hypothesis I’ve been working on, and this potential outcome would be the scientific confirmation that this hypothesis is absolutely true. I need a Sounders elimination followed by carnations. All of you do too.

Final Whistle

Yeah, I’m only really rooting for Seattle humiliation on Decision Day. There’s one simple reason why: if the Timbers cannot beat Austin, they do not deserve to be in the playoffs.

This season has taken many different forms. That cycle has been thrown back and forth on a game-by-game basis as the Timbers try to build the case that they are actually a playoff team. Tomorrow’s game is the final hurdle that they need to clear, and the reverse fixture of this game was one of the most frustrating results of the season.

Austin had to travel from New Jersey (where they played a midweek Leagues Cup game) to Portland and were still able to pull off that win. This is Portland’s chance for revenge, and they have to take it. Especially how likely it is that Austin’s stadium won’t be anywhere close to fortress-quality.

On September 20th, a Venezuelan man was chased down by ICE in his car and shot. Federal charges (bullshit ones) were filed against this man because ICE said he “used his car as a weapon.” These types of incidents have been commonplace all over the country ever since the current Presidential administration has been throwing money and resources at “deporting illegal immigrants” since assuming executive power in January 2025. It’s just a purely racist campaign aimed at various groups of minorities, with Hispanic communities the hardest hit.

Austin FC’s fanbase is largely Hispanic. So wearing T-shirts or hanging banners with “ICE Out” or similar messages have been pretty common throughout the 2026 MLS season. Minnesota raised a whole tifo about ICE’s outsized effect on their own community, you might remember. But the tension reached a boiling point during the September 26th game against San Diego.

A former city council candidate wore an “Abolish ICE” T-shirt to that game and was asked to cover or change her shirt. Stadium policy prohibited this kind of messaging. Rather than cede to the ridiculous request, this woman refused. She was escorted out of the stadium and given a year-long criminal trespass from all home games.

A supporters’ walkout in solidarity was organized for the October 10th game against Nashville; Austin’s next home game. Attendance declined significantly for their next two home games. Tomorrow is the final home game of the season. Between the team’s awfulness and the team’s endorsement of race-based deportation and concentration camps, it’s not too hard to speculate on how lightly-attended tomorrow’s game will be.

So for their final test, the Timbers will have to go on the road to a stadium that is actively being boycotted by the home team’s fanbase. That team, per the underlying numbers, is worse than a team widely regarded as the worst MLS team of all time. And the Timbers have the most momentum since Cifuentes stepped on the touchline in August. Portland has been gifted a golden opportunity in more ways than one. If they cannot pass this test, they should not be able to continue their season. It really is that simple. The climb continues.